Oil & Energy

Tight Now, Loose Later: Oil Futures Flash Warning

Published

1 year ago

May 12, 2025

Last week, OPEC+ announced it will once again accelerate the pace of unwinding of production cuts, with output targets for June increasing by 411,000 barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments.
This follows a similar move in April, with the organization appearing willing to stay the course amid low oil prices and fears of weakening demand.
We reported that global crude inventories remain low enough, thus giving OPEC+ a window to scale back its voluntary cuts until the market surplus finally arrives.
Saudi Arabia appears intent on “punishing” OPEC+ rascals such as Kazakhstan and Iran for repeatedly violating their quotas.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that the latest OPEC survey of secondary sources reveals that Kazakhstan’s crude oil output clocked in at 1.852 mb/d in March, 384 kb/d above its OPEC+ quota.
Further, the country also failed to keep its promise to cut 38 kb/d in compensation for overproduction in March, bringing its total overproduction to 422 kb/d.
The same scenario is expected to unfold in the coming months. Kazakhstan produced 240 kb/d more y/y in March, a sharp contrast from the other eight OPEC+ members who produced a combined 612 kb/d less.
And now, the oil futures markets are sending a dire warning that oil bulls could find themselves in trouble quite soon due to a combination of the OPEC+ output hike and Trump’s tariffs.
Oil futures curve has formed a rare “smile” shape, a structure Morgan Stanley says was last seen briefly in February 2020 just before the infamous oil price crash.
On Wednesday, Brent futures’ July contract was trading at a premium of 74 cents to the October contract, a market structure known as backwardation, foreshadowing immediate tight supply.
However, prompt prices from November have formed a contango, with forward prices flipping to a discount, indicating oversupply as traders predict Trump’s tariffs will eventually weaken oil demand. Having backwardation and contango together leads to the rare “smile” shaped curve.
According to the latest available data by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil inventories stood at 7.647 billion barrels in February, down from 7.709 billion barrels for last year’s corresponding period and close to the bottom of their historical five-year range.
Meanwhile, refiners’ appetite for crude is climbing ahead of the peak driving season in July and August, “Refinery maintenance in the Atlantic basin will start to taper off, increasing oil demand (for refining)… Summer driving should provide some support,” BNP Paribas analyst told Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter of the current year, up from an average of 104.51 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA has predicted.
The 1 million bpd output increases announced by OPEC+ so far, coupled with another 400 kb/d increase in July, almost matches the predicted demand increase, implying oil markets will not face a surplus till late in the year.
Meanwhile, oil prices jumped in Thursday’s session after the Trump administration announced it has struck a trade deal with the UK. Brent crude for July delivery was up 2.7% to trade at $62.75/bbl at 12.50 pm ET while WTI crude contract for June delivery added 3.0% to change hands at $59.86 per barrel. However, terms of the deal appear to fall well short of the “comprehensive” package Trump earlier touted.
According to Trump, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will further reduce non-tariff barriers and fast-track U.S. goods into his country.
Meanwhile, another solid week of jobless claims underscored the Federal Reserve’s ongoing unwillingness to cut rates. U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 228,000 for the period ending on May 3.
Continued claims, however, clocked in at just over 1.9 million, near the highest levels since 2021, suggesting workers are still finding it difficult to secure new jobs as the economy stalls.
That said, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that path of least resistance for oil prices is lower in the coming months, with oil prices to remain low before beginning a gradual recovery later in the year as U.S. oil output declines.
StanChart, however, says there’s some technical support in the short-term, with fundamentals remaining fairly positive. Recently, StanChart cut its 2025 oil price forecast to $61/bbl from $76 and also lowered its 2026 forecast to USD 78/bbl from $85 citing Trump’s tariffs.

By: Alex Kimani

Oil & Energy

Global Energy Crisis Is Reviving Green Hydrogen

Published

3 weeks ago

April 27, 2026

The Tide

The global energy crisis has reshaped global energy priorities seemingly overnight. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to virtually all commercial traffic for well over a month now, severely restricting global flows of oil and gas. As a result, global energy prices have skyrocketed, and supplies have tightened, pushing many countries to explore alternative energy pathways in a big hurry. This has led to an unfortunate resurgence of coal-fired power, especially in Asia – but it is also set to supercharge the clean energy industry on a global scale. And one of the unlikely benefactors of this groundswell of new investment may be the green hydrogen industry.

China, the world’s top hydrogen producer, is planning to ramp up production of hydrogen, and especially green hydrogen, more quickly than previously planned in order to shore up its energy security as import-dependent Asian markets are rocked by skyrocketing oil and gas prices. China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has referred to hydrogen as a “strategic lever” for national energy autonomy and resilience, and has pledged to accelerate the development of the domestic sector accordingly.

China’s 15th five-year plan, released last month, flagged hydrogen as a “future industry.” But, apparently, the future is now. According to a recent report from the South China Morning Post, the rhetoric around hydrogen coming out of China signals a shift away from research and toward rapid practical development of the sector.

Last year, the NEA earmarked 41 projects in nine regions across the country to lead hydrogen pilot projects all along the value chain “from production and transport to storage and application.” Now, leadership is pushing to bring those projects out of demo phases and into industrial applications as quickly as possible.

European leaders, too, are pivoting to embrace green hydrogen production with renewed enthusiasm. Earlier this month, ministers from Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain petitioned the European Union to loosen production regulations to encourage investment into the sector. And Italy successfully approved a €6 billion state aid plan to support renewable hydrogen.

Even the United States is getting on board. This week, the Trump administration instructed the Department of Energy to save $5 billion worth of hydrogen hubs that were slated for closure. The hydrogen projects – though not green hydrogen ventures – were funded under the Biden administration in order to promote cleaner-burning fuel sources.

Hydrogen could potentially be a critical pathway for decarbonization, as it combusts at high heat like fossil fuels. But, unlike fossil fuels, when it burns, it leaves behind nothing but water vapor. This could make it indispensable for the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors like steelmaking and shipping. However, the vast majority of commercial hydrogen is made with fossil fuels. Green hydrogen, by comparison, is made using renewable energies.

But while hydrogen, and especially green hydrogen, could be a key part of the global clean energy transition, research and development in the sector had been cooling for years, as commercial and cost-effective green hydrogen production methods largely failed to materialize. “Even if production costs decrease in line with predictions, storage and distribution costs will prevent hydrogen from being cost-competitive in many sectors,” Roxana Shafiee, a postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard University Center for the Environment, told The Harvard Gazette in 2024. Shafiee led a study that found cause to believe “that the opportunities for hydrogen may be narrower than previously thought.”

But the economics of energy are changing as we speak, and the global hydrogen market is likely about to see a windfall as the world rushes to replace geopolitically risky fossil fuels, which have become prohibitively expensive overnight. Clearly, global leaders are already reembracing the fledgling sector as part of an all-of-the-above approach to energy security and independence. While hydrogen may not be a silver bullet solution, it could be a critical part of a more diverse and therefore more resilient global energy landscape going forward.

By Haley Zaremba

Oil & Energy

PETAN Tasks Indigenous Oil Firms On Investments Attraction … Global Engagement Sustenance

Published

3 weeks ago

April 27, 2026

The Tide

The Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN) has urged indigenous oil and gas companies to deepen global engagement and attract investment.

The Association urged intending participants to leverage the forthcoming 2026 Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in the U.S. to expand their access to new technologies and partnerships.

PETAN said its participation at the global event would be driven by a deliberate strategy to position Nigerian firms as competitive players within the international energy value chain.

In a statement issued by the Association’s Publicity Secretary, Dr Joan Faluyi, In Lagos, at the weekend, PETAN would anchor its activities at the Nigerian Pavilion, with the theme: “Africa’s Energy Transformation: Scaling Investment, Technology, and Local Capacity for Sustainable Growth”.

Faluyi noted that the conference, scheduled for May 4 to May 7 in Houston, Texas, remained a leading platform for offshore energy dialogue, partnerships and innovation.

According to her, PETAN’s participation goes beyond routine attendance and reflects a focused effort to strengthen Nigeria’s visibility and influence in global energy discussions.

“At OTC 2026, PETAN is returning with stronger alignment and a clearer objective, to ensure Nigerian companies are not just present, but actively engaged and recognised as credible global partners,” she said.

Faluyi explained that the association had consistently showcased the capabilities of indigenous oil and gas service providers at previous editions of the conference, reinforcing their capacity to compete internationally.

She added that the Nigerian Pavilion would serve as a strategic hub for investment discussions, technical exhibitions and direct engagement with global stakeholders.

The association is also scheduled to participate in key engagements, including the African Energy Forum, the NCDMB–OEM Investment Forum and the PETAN Golf Tournament slated for May 7 at Quail Valley Golf Course, Texas.

Faluyi described OTC as a critical gateway for Nigerian companies seeking international opportunities, noting that visibility and engagement at the event often translate into commercial partnerships.

“In an increasingly competitive energy landscape, securing a seat at the global table is essential. Through sustained participation, PETAN continues to assert Nigeria’s place in that conversation,” she said.

Also speaking, PETAN Chairman, Mr Wole Ogunsanya, said the Association’s focus was to ensure that indigenous capacity is fully integrated into global energy decision-making processes.

“We have seen firsthand how global energy decisions are shaped at OTC. This year, we are returning to ensure indigenous Nigerian capacity is not just present but recognised, engaged and heard.

“We are taking our businesses to the table where real partnerships are formed,” he said.

Faluyi added that under Ogunsanya’s leadership, PETAN was prioritising strategic positioning to ensure Nigerian companies are not only visible but considered credible partners in major international energy projects.

Oil & Energy

Solar Panels Imports Ban: Experts Recommend Phase -out Approach

Published

3 weeks ago

April 27, 2026

The Tide

Stakeholders in Nigeria’s energy sector have warned that an abrupt restriction on solar panels imports would undermine electricity access.

The experts called for a gradual phase-out of imports over several years rather than an outright ban.

Recall that the federal government had announced plans to halt solar panel imports after investing more than N200 billion to encourage domestic production.

Speaking at the Solar Power Media Training, in Abuja, last week, the Campaign Director, Secure Energy Project (SEP), Joseph Ibrahim, said stakeholders support the goal of building local manufacturing capacity but cautioned against sudden policy shifts.

“Let me be clear, we wholeheartedly support local manufacturing of solar panels”.

“We want to see factories in our states, jobs for our youth, and a supply chain that begins and ends on our soil”, he stated.

Ibrahim insisted that the most effective path forward is a carefully managed roadmap implemented over three to five years to give investors and workers time to adjust.

“If we rush this, we risk making solar power too expensive for the millions who currently rely on it for survival.

“By taking a phased approach, we allow time for investors to build their plants, for our workers to learn specialised skills, and for our economy to adjust without losing power”, he said.

The SEP director said policy stability, access to financing, and strict quality standards are essential to building a sustainable local solar manufacturing industry.

“To make local manufacturing a reality, we don’t just need new laws; we need an enabling environment. This means stability — policies that don’t change with the wind,” he said.

Also speaking, Tosin Asonibare, said renewable energy has become a critical solution to Nigeria’s persistent electricity supply challenges.

He cited findings by the Global Initiative for Food Security and Ecosystem Preservation, indicating that many Nigerians remain unaware of the proposed import restrictions and their potential implications.

According to him, respondents in the report largely favoured a phased ban supported by incentives for importing raw materials needed for local production.

“The report also shows that infrastructure for locally manufactured panels is not fully available, so there is need for foreign direct investment improvement in government policy.

“So that the local manufacturers and assembling companies can have higher capacity to meet demand. If that is not done, the price of solar panels will go up”, he said.

He warned that affordability could become a major concern for consumers if restrictions are implemented without adequate preparation.