Oil & Energy

Tight Now, Loose Later: Oil Futures Flash Warning

Published

1 year ago

May 12, 2025

Last week, OPEC+ announced it will once again accelerate the pace of unwinding of production cuts, with output targets for June increasing by 411,000 barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments.
This follows a similar move in April, with the organization appearing willing to stay the course amid low oil prices and fears of weakening demand.
We reported that global crude inventories remain low enough, thus giving OPEC+ a window to scale back its voluntary cuts until the market surplus finally arrives.
Saudi Arabia appears intent on “punishing” OPEC+ rascals such as Kazakhstan and Iran for repeatedly violating their quotas.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that the latest OPEC survey of secondary sources reveals that Kazakhstan’s crude oil output clocked in at 1.852 mb/d in March, 384 kb/d above its OPEC+ quota.
Further, the country also failed to keep its promise to cut 38 kb/d in compensation for overproduction in March, bringing its total overproduction to 422 kb/d.
The same scenario is expected to unfold in the coming months. Kazakhstan produced 240 kb/d more y/y in March, a sharp contrast from the other eight OPEC+ members who produced a combined 612 kb/d less.
And now, the oil futures markets are sending a dire warning that oil bulls could find themselves in trouble quite soon due to a combination of the OPEC+ output hike and Trump’s tariffs.
Oil futures curve has formed a rare “smile” shape, a structure Morgan Stanley says was last seen briefly in February 2020 just before the infamous oil price crash.
On Wednesday, Brent futures’ July contract was trading at a premium of 74 cents to the October contract, a market structure known as backwardation, foreshadowing immediate tight supply.
However, prompt prices from November have formed a contango, with forward prices flipping to a discount, indicating oversupply as traders predict Trump’s tariffs will eventually weaken oil demand. Having backwardation and contango together leads to the rare “smile” shaped curve.
According to the latest available data by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil inventories stood at 7.647 billion barrels in February, down from 7.709 billion barrels for last year’s corresponding period and close to the bottom of their historical five-year range.
Meanwhile, refiners’ appetite for crude is climbing ahead of the peak driving season in July and August, “Refinery maintenance in the Atlantic basin will start to taper off, increasing oil demand (for refining)… Summer driving should provide some support,” BNP Paribas analyst told Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter of the current year, up from an average of 104.51 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA has predicted.
The 1 million bpd output increases announced by OPEC+ so far, coupled with another 400 kb/d increase in July, almost matches the predicted demand increase, implying oil markets will not face a surplus till late in the year.
Meanwhile, oil prices jumped in Thursday’s session after the Trump administration announced it has struck a trade deal with the UK. Brent crude for July delivery was up 2.7% to trade at $62.75/bbl at 12.50 pm ET while WTI crude contract for June delivery added 3.0% to change hands at $59.86 per barrel. However, terms of the deal appear to fall well short of the “comprehensive” package Trump earlier touted.
According to Trump, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will further reduce non-tariff barriers and fast-track U.S. goods into his country.
Meanwhile, another solid week of jobless claims underscored the Federal Reserve’s ongoing unwillingness to cut rates. U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 228,000 for the period ending on May 3.
Continued claims, however, clocked in at just over 1.9 million, near the highest levels since 2021, suggesting workers are still finding it difficult to secure new jobs as the economy stalls.
That said, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that path of least resistance for oil prices is lower in the coming months, with oil prices to remain low before beginning a gradual recovery later in the year as U.S. oil output declines.
StanChart, however, says there’s some technical support in the short-term, with fundamentals remaining fairly positive. Recently, StanChart cut its 2025 oil price forecast to $61/bbl from $76 and also lowered its 2026 forecast to USD 78/bbl from $85 citing Trump’s tariffs.

By: Alex Kimani

Oil & Energy

Aiyedatiwa Signs New Electricity Bill

Published

3 days ago

August 17, 2026

The Tide

Ondo State Governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa has signed the State Electric Power Sector (Amendment) Law, 2026, aimed at strengthening regulation and attracting investment into electricity generation, transmission and distribution across the state.

The new legislation, passed by the State House of Assembly, amends Ondo State Electric Power Sector Law, 2020, and aligns the state’s electricity framework with recent constitutional and statutory developments, particularly the Electricity Act, 2023.

A statement issued by the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Prince Ebenezer Adeniyan, said a major provision of the law was the establishment of State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC), an independent body responsible for regulating electricity activities and standards in Ondo State.

It added that the commission would oversee tariffs, open access, franchises, third-party investments, mini-grids and renewable energy development, while also issuing licences and permits for electricity generation, transmission and distribution facilities.

“The law also provides for the establishment of the State Independent System Operator (SISO) and State Market Operator (SMO) to facilitate the effective operation and development of the state’s electricity market.

“Under the amended law, compulsory metering is required for both grid-connected and off-grid electricity consumers. Electricity sellers are mandated to provide appropriate meters, while consumers will maintain direct service and payment relationships with their respective electricity providers.

“The legislation also provides legal protection for electricity infrastructure financed by communities, associations and private individuals. Transformers, distribution lines and other facilities connected to the public distribution network are protected against arbitrary interference,” the statement said.

It stated further that the law creates the offence of “Electricity Infrastructure Expansion Sabotage” for anyone who deliberately prevents certified electricity infrastructure from being connected to the grid.

According to the statement, first conviction attracts a N2 million fine, as well as an additional N25,000 for every day the refusal continues after written notice from the regulatory authority.

Oil & Energy

NLNG Commissions Research And Innovation Centre In RSU

Published

3 days ago

August 17, 2026

The Tide

The Nigeria Liquified Natural Gas (NLNG) has launched the Research and Innovation Centre for Computer and Electrical Engineering (RICCEE), in the Rivers State University, a major research and development initiative jointly promoted by Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB).

The project, valued at US$6.2 million, is being implemented under NLNG’s Human Capacity Development (HCD) Plan and forms part of the NCDMB Human Capital Development Institutional Strengthening Programme.

The centre is designed to strengthen the university’s capacity for advanced, industry-relevant research, specialised training, technology development and practical problem-solving in computer, electrical and electronics engineering.

The initiative is expected to promote industry-focused research and develop innovative solutions to operational challenges confronting Nigeria’s energy and industrial sectors.

The facility would be developed on approximately 9,336 square metres of land within Rivers State University and will comprise a three-storey building of more than 9,000 square metres, containing 18 specialised laboratories.

The laboratories would include facilities for Electronics and Signal Processing, Robotics and Embedded Systems, Software Engineering and Digital Forensics and Cybersecurity as well as provide offices, storage areas and technical administration spaces to support research, teaching and equipment management.

The building would incorporate sustainability features, including solar energy provisions, energy-efficient lighting and environmentally responsible systems designed to reduce operating costs and support reliable research activities.

A US$1.2 million Professorial Chair would also be established as part of the initiative to support advanced research, academic leadership, and industry collaboration.

Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony, last Thursday, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of NLNG, Adeleye Falade, who was represented by Dr Sophia Horsfall, General Manager, External Relations and Sustainable Development of NLNG, described the new engineering facility as more than infrastructure, noting that it would serve as a hub for equipping students, lecturers and researchers with the tools required for practical learning, applied research and innovation in computer, electrical and electronics engineering.

Represented by the General Manager, External Relations and Sustainable Development, NLNG, Sophia Horsfall, Falade stated that the centre would strengthen collaboration between academia and industry and ensure that research outcomes from Rivers State University directly address operational and societal challenges facing Nigeria.

He explained that the project is aimed at improving the capacity of institutions of learning through upgraded infrastructure, modern research facilities, technical equipment and industry-aligned training programmes that extend human capital development beyond the classroom.

According to him, the centre would help bridge the gap between academic knowledge and practical industry requirements by enabling researchers and professionals to collaborate on innovations with commercial and developmental relevance.

Falade emphasised that while infrastructure is important, people remain the greatest investment, noting that education delivers the highest return by building confidence, competence and capacity for national development.

He further announced that NLNG’s Research and Development Implementation Consultancy would be based at the centre upon completion adding that the consultancy would support the development of a robust research and development framework in line with the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act, 2010 and facilitate commercially viable, industry-relevant research in partnership with selected tertiary institutions.

Falade commended the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) for its leadership in bringing industry and academia together and reaffirmed NLNG’s commitment to sustainable human capital development and indigenous technological advancement.

On his part, the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, who was represented by the Director, Capacity Building Directorate, Engr. Abayomi Bamidele, described the groundbreaking ceremony as a significant milestone in the implementation of the Board’s Human Capital Development objectives.

Ogbe confirmed that NCDMB is fully aligned with NLNG in the implementation of the RICCEE project and would work closely with all stakeholders to ensure its successful execution and completion, commending the NLNG for its commitment to the project.

He explained that the project forms part of NCDMB’s Institutional Strengthening Programme, which seeks to establish enduring partnerships with institutions of higher learning by providing infrastructure that enhances teaching, research, innovation and practical skills development.

He challenged the centre to become a vibrant hub of discovery, creativity, enterprise and technological advancement, where students would be inspired to innovate, researchers would develop solutions to real-world challenges and industry would find reliable partners for research and development.

He also commended NLNG for its commitment to the project and praised the Governing Council, Vice-Chancellor and management of Rivers State University for their dedication to academic ex.

In his address, the Vice-Chancellor of Rivers State University, Prof. Isaac Zeb-Obipi, described the occasion as a historic milestone for the institution and reaffirmed the university’s vision of becoming a leading institution focused on solving practical societal problems through research, innovation and human capacity development.

Prof. Zeb-Obipi stated that the RICCEE project aligns with the university’s 2026–2030 Strategic Development Plan, which prioritises the improvement of academic programmes and the strengthening of research collaboration, innovation and entrepreneurship.

Oil & Energy

Reps Demand Urgent Action On Bille Gas Seepage, Odidi Oil Spill

Published

3 days ago

August 17, 2026

The Tide

The House of Representatives Committee on South-South Development Commission has demanded urgent and concrete measures to resolve the prolonged gas seepage in Bille Community, Rivers State, and the oil spill affecting Odidi Federated Community in Delta State.

Chairman of the Committee, Hon. Julius Gbabojor Pondi, made the demand during an urgent Stakeholders’ Engagement on the Bille gas seepage and a Legislative Hearing on the Odidi oil spill, in Abuja, last week.

Pondi said the two incidents had exposed host communities in the oil-producing region to prolonged environmental hazards while responses from relevant authorities had yet to produce satisfactory and timely resolutions.

The Committee’s intervention comes amid growing concerns over environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, where communities dependent largely on fishing, farming and other natural-resource-based livelihoods continue to contend with the consequences of oil and gas activities.

Pondi said the Committee’s concern over the Bille incident was heightened following its engagement with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) on July 30, 2026.

He said the Committee was deeply concerned that the gas seepage had persisted for approximately nine months without a clear end in sight.

“The implications are serious. Beyond the potential risks to health, safety and the environment, the incident has imposed severe economic hardship on the people of Bille,” Pondi said.

He noted that Bille, a predominantly fishing community, had suffered consequences affecting livelihoods, food security, household income, education and the general well-being of families.

“It is unacceptable for an incident of this magnitude to persist for so long without a clear, time-bound and effective resolution strategy,” he stated.

According to Pondi, the engagement was intended to establish the facts surrounding the incident, assess the response so far, identify obstacles and agree on practical, measurable and time-bound actions.

He said the Committee expected comprehensive briefings from the operating company, NUPRC, NOSDRA and other relevant agencies on the cause, extent and current status of the seepage, while representatives of Bille Community would be given an opportunity to present their concerns and the relief and interventions required.

“Most importantly, we want to move from prolonged discussion to concrete action and lasting resolution,” he said.

Giving an account of the agency’s technical findings, a Director of NOSDRA, Dr Yusuf Rigasa, said investigations had established what he described as “multi-point subsurface gas bubbling” at several locations in Bille.

He stated that gas bubbling had been detected around the premises of the Government Primary and Secondary School, as well as in waterways and certain mangrove areas.

According to him, NOSDRA conducted an air-quality assessment on December 6, 2025, across 19 stations and recorded elevated levels of hydrogen sulphide, methane, volatile organic compounds and carbon dioxide.

Rigasa explained that hydrogen sulphide has a characteristic rotten-egg smell, while methane is highly flammable and potentially explosive.

The concentrations recorded, he said, exceeded applicable regulatory thresholds.

Rigasa stated that the agency’s reference laboratory also analysed samples collected on December 16, 2025, and found elevated levels of total petroleum hydrocarbons in groundwater, surface water and sediment samples adding that

findings indicated that soil, surface water and groundwater in parts of Bille had been affected by pollution.

What we can confirm for the House is that the air, the groundwater, the surface water and the sediment in the swampy areas in that village, they are all polluted,” he said.

The NOSDRA official, however, said the agency had not established that the gas was from a hydrocarbon source.