Oil & Energy

Standard Chartered: Oil Demand Not As Bearish As Imagined

Published

2 years ago

August 26, 2024

Oil prices have been on the backfoot in the current week, pulling back from gains in recent weeks, thanks to easing geopolitical fears and seemingly never-ending demand concerns.
On Monday, United States Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had accepted a cease-fire proposal to stop the war in Gaza, but on Thursday, sources close to the White House reported that such a deal is once again out of reach as Hamas is unlikely to accept the Israeli terms, which include the occupation of the Philadelphi corridor, which Israel claims has given Hamas a strategic lifeline.
Crude oil futures fell significantly on Wednesday, with WTI crude falling to $72 per barrel and Brent crude falling briefly into the $75 dollar handle. Prospects of weak demand in China offset any gains from risks to supply, with government data showing that crude demand in the country fell 8per cent Y/Y in July.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have been able to gauge crude demand on a global scale following the release of Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) data on 19 August.
According to StanChart, global oil demand in June clocked in at a healthy 103.01 million barrels per day (mb/d), an all-time high.
Following JODI revisions, StanChart estimates that May demand came in at 102.68 mb/d, the second-highest monthly average after June. The average demand growth for the second quarter was 1.521 mb/d y/y, close to StanChart’s forecast for 2024 full-year growth (1.514 mb/d).
The only bearish data point in that report is that demand growth has been slowing, with June demand growth clocking in at 788 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), a deceleration from 1.267 mb/d in May and 2.129 mb/d in April. StanChart has predicted that global demand will remain above 103 mb/d for the rest of 2024, before falling to 101.9 mb/d in January due to seasonality.
Meanwhile, global crude supply growth remains muted, with June supply increasing by 160 kb/d m/m to 102.097 mb/d, well below December 2023’s all-time high of 103.162 mb/d.
Constrained global supply growth can largely be chalked up to weak non-OPEC growth, particularly by the U.S. Oil production in the United States is set to grow just 2.3per cent in the current year as shale producers stick to production discipline and goal to return capital to shareholders.
Crude exports from U.S. ports have averaged 4.2 million barrels per day so far this year, up a mere 3.5per centY/Y compared to a robust 13.5per cent growth in 2023. This year’s growth clip is the lowest since 2015, when the country lifted a 40-year federal ban on the export of domestic crude.
U.S. shale producers are simply not willing to drill more. High decline rates for shale wells usually sets in soon after commissioning, meaning extra well completions are required to offset declines from existing wells if output is to be maintained.
Earlier in the year, StanChart reported that the horizontal rig count started to decline sharply in early 2023 and is currently 20per cent below its post-pandemic peak after flatlining for the past six months.
The analysts point out that whereas the completion of previously drilled wells and technical change provide an offset, a significant fall in activity, more often than not, leads to a lagged decline in growth.
The big rally in Europe’s natural gas prices that kicked off in July appears to have run out of steam thanks to high inventory levels and easing supply jitters. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, were quoted at €37.22 per megawatt-hour on Monday at 1315 hrs ET, largely unchanged over the past 10 days but considerably higher than the price a month ago at €30.10 per megawatt-hour. The gas price rally in the United States has been more subdued, with Henry Hub prices trading at $2.15/MMBtu from $2.01/MMBtu a month ago.
According to the latest Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, EU gas inventories are on the verge of moving above the EU Commission’s 90% of capacity target 10 weeks earlier than the 1 November deadline.
Gas inventories stood at 104.23 billion cubic meters (bcm) on 18 August; good for a fill rate of 89.8per cent. German storage is already at 93.3per cent of capacity, well ahead of the country’s 1 September target of 65per cent.
Last month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that U.S. natural gas prices will rally strongly in the second half of the current year thanks to production cuts.
According to the EIA, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average almost $2.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2H24, up from $2.10/MMBtu in 1H24, good for a nearly 40 per cent increase.
Kimani writes for Oilprice.com.

By: Alex Kimani

Oil & Energy

Can Cheap Batteries Deliver COP31’s 35% Electrification Goal?

Published

3 days ago

November 9, 2026

The Tide

Electrification will be the major focus of the COP31 United Nations climate conference, to hold in Antalya, Türkiye, from today, November 9 to 20, 2026. The host country will invite the attending nations to sign onto a voluntary pledge to reach 35 percent electrification on a global level by 2035. J

ust a year ago, this target may have seemed overly ambitious, but now, experts say that a number of factors, including volatile oil and gas markets stemming from the war in Iran, paired with enormous advances in clean energy technologies, have put that goal within “striking distance.”

The months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz has catalyzed the clean energy transition and the rate of electrification around the world. Before the United States and Israel began their military offensive in Iran back in February of this year, one fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade flowed through the Strait of Hormuz. Its abrupt closure therefore sent global oil and gas markets into turmoil and sent energy-importing countries around the world scrambling for alternatives, especially ones that they could produce and control on their home soil. And, just like that, renewable energy became the new face of energy security.

“Wind and solar cannot be embargoed, blockaded, or shut off by a foreign power,” David Frykman, General Partner at Stockholm-based venture capital group Norrsken, wrote in an op-ed for Fortune earlier this year. “Every terawatt-hour of domestic renewable generation is a terawatt-hour that no adversary can weaponize.”

But there is another, quieter force that has made this rapid global pivot toward renewable energies possible – the energy storage boom. Energy storage is critical to ensure grid stability in the face of rapid electrification and the increasing representation of intermittent energy sources like wind and solar power in national energy mixes. Major advances in the sector in recent years have made battery storage more affordable and more scalable than ever before – just in time for the world’s most recent bout of ‘fossilflation.’

“What’s really become a game-changer in the past two years is the rapid deployment of large-scale batteries that can hang onto ever larger amounts of power to be used throughout the day to smooth out demand and avoid overtaxing the grid,” Forbes wrote in a Monday report.

The second quarter of this year saw the United States’ largest-ever energy storage expansion, at 20.2 gigawatt-hours of additional capacity, according to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. That puts this year’s total additions at 30.8 GWh – and counting.

“Although President Trump is no fan of renewable energy or batteries, utility-scale energy storage capacity still nearly doubled to 165 GWh from 88 GWh in the first 18 months of his administration,” the Forbes article goes on to detail. “Grid operators, utilities and data center developers are all buying batteries as fast as they can to meet power demand and improve grid reliability. As a result, battery energy storage systems supplied more electricity to the grid in the year’s first eight months than in all of 2025.”

Ironically, despite his best efforts, Donald Trump is overseeing one of the United States’ most significant clean energy booms in the nation’s history as solar and wind have simply become too cheap to fail. And the United States is not alone. Buoyed by a flood of cheap solar panels and battery storage systems coming out of China, even the world’s poorest countries are experiencing clean energy revolutions.

“Some countries are pulling off stunningly fast energy transitions, adding solar so rapidly, it’s become a major source of electricity over the course of years — not decades,” reports CNN.

Pakistan has become the surprise poster child of this trend as residents install rooftop solar and batteries faster than any other market on Earth, as these systems provide electricity more cheaply and reliably than the country’s own beleaguered energy infrastructure. In addition, emerging economies including Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Morocco, Kenya, and Namibia have all overtaken the United States – the world’s largest economy – in their clean energy transitions.

By Haley Zaremba

Oil & Energy

MAN, Ministry Tackle High Electricity Costs, Erratic Supply

Published

3 days ago

November 9, 2026

The Tide

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has said it is working with the Federal Ministry of Power to address high electricity tariffs, unreliable grid supply and rising energy costs that are undermining industrial production and competitiveness in the country.

The association said the collaboration would focus on developing sustainable energy solutions for manufacturers, including renewable energy, battery storage, captive power generation and improved electricity distribution.

Speaking during the second edition of the Manufacturers Energy Security and Energy Efficiency Summit in Lagos, the President, MAN, Dr. Ifeanyi Okoye, regretted that high electricity tariffs, unreliable grid supply and heavy dependence on fossil fuels had made industrial production exceptionally difficult.

Okoye said energy expenses consumed nearly half of some factories’ operating budgets, weakening their competitiveness, increasing product prices and threatening jobs.

He said manufacturers had continued to operate their own power infrastructure despite paying for electricity from the national grid.

“When energy expenses claim nearly half of a factory’s operating budget, competitiveness evaporates, retail prices skyrocket, and jobs are placed on the line,” he said.

Okoye said the association was moving beyond advocacy to implement practical solutions through its Industrial Energy Cost Reduction and Energy Support Programme, as key partners in delivering the initiative.

According to him, the programme would promote factory-roof solar installations, battery energy storage systems, captive natural gas generation and smart energy management networks to reduce production costs and protect manufacturers from global fuel price shocks.

He, however, stressed that manufacturers needed affordable, long-term financing to undertake the energy transition.

“We cannot finance 21st-century industrial transitions with 30-day commercial bank loans at cut-throat interest rates,” Okoye said.

He said the summit would bring financial institutions, climate funds and green investors together to develop long-tenured, low-interest financing instruments, carbon credit opportunities and asset-financing

Also speaking, the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, warned industrial customers against unauthorised electricity connections.

He disclosed that investigations had uncovered about 14 industrial customers along a particular corridor who owed more than N400m in unpaid electricity charges over several years.

Tegbe said such practices deprived the electricity sector of revenue needed to sustain power supply and unfairly burdened consumers who paid their bills.

“Such conduct deprives the sector of revenue that we need to sustain the supply, and unfairly burdens consumers who pay honestly,” Tegbe said.

The minister vowed to recover the outstanding charges and hold those responsible accountable, urging MAN to encourage its members to maintain lawful electricity connections and comply with applicable regulations.

Tegbe acknowledged that manufacturers continued to struggle with electricity interruptions, poor power quality, vandalism and electricity theft, adding that the government was directing investments towards addressing the underlying problems.

Speaking on behalf of manufacturers, the MAN South-East Chairman, Ada Chukwudozie, said energy had become a question of survival and competitiveness for Nigerian manufacturers.

She said manufacturers were increasingly financing and managing their own electricity infrastructure while struggling with rising production costs and limited access to capital.

“We are effectively running a second power system paid for by ourselves, besides the grid we also pay for. And that is why for the Nigerian manufacturer, energy is no longer simply an operational issue. It is a question of survival and competitiveness,” Chukwudozie said.

She explained that unreliable electricity supply forced manufacturers to make difficult choices between purchasing energy and raw materials, maintaining equipment and paying workers.

The regulator added that manufacturers could strengthen their competitiveness by adopting cleaner energy sources as international markets increasingly imposed environmental and carbon-related requirements on products and supply chains.

Oil & Energy

Reps Panel Dismisses Petition Against NIPCO gas Licence

Published

3 days ago

November 9, 2026

The Tide

The House of Representatives has dismissed a petition seeking the cancellation of gas distribution licences awarded to NIPCO Plc, ruling that the petitioners failed to provide credible evidence to substantiate their allegations.

The decision followed a review by the House Sub-Committee on the Petition concerning NIPCO Plc, which rejected the complaint filed by the Nigerian Energy Security Watch Group (NESWG) for lacking substance and evidential support.

The petition had called for an investigation into, and the suspension and cancellation of, gas distribution licences issued by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to NIPCO for Lagos, Ogun, Oyo and Osun states, as well as the Lagos and Lekki Free Trade Zones.

Announcing the decision last Thursday, the Chairman of the Sub-Committee, Peter Aniekwe, said the petitioners relied on hearsay and failed to establish any wrongdoing in the licensing process.

“At its sitting today, the Sub-Committee resolved not to proceed with the investigation, and the petition is accordingly dismissed,” Aniekwe said.

The committee, which also includes Dahaltu Shehu, was constituted in October to examine the petition. It was granted an additional 14 days on October 26 to conclude its assignment.

Aniekwe said the issuance and regulation of gas distribution licences were statutory responsibilities of the NMDPRA under the Petroleum Industry Act, while stressing that the National Assembly would continue to exercise oversight over the process.

He disclosed that the regulator had committed to completing and rolling out gas distribution licensing in the fourth quarter of 2026, adding that the committee would monitor the implementation.

“Nigerians deserve a gas market that is open, competitive and safe, and investors deserve rules that are clear and stable,” he said.

The lawmaker reaffirmed the House’s commitment to considering petitions from individuals and organisations with genuine concerns about the petroleum sector, saying “each complaint would be assessed on its merits”.