The “Giant of Africa”, Nigeria is a country rich with natural resources, and the largest population on the continent with 219 million people. Africa’s giant is predicted to get even bigger, as the population is forecast to grow to 377 million people by 2050. However, its natural resources are already under strain, with rising carbon emissions and increasing deforestation.
As part of our series of blogs looking at Nigeria in preparation for our Population Conversation roundtable event next week, we ask: with a booming population, what lies ahead for Nigeria’s environment?
Nigeria has the biggest population and economy in Africa, with a population of 219 million. It’s predicted to overtake the US to become the world’s third most populated country by 2051. Nigeria’s rapid growth is the result of its large young population coming into child-bearing age, with currently half of the population under the age of 19. It’s home to some of Africa’s richest individuals, however stark wealth inequality divides the country, with two-thirds of the population below the poverty line.
Nigeria is a country incredibly susceptible to the effects of climate change. The capital city Lagos bordering on Nigeria’s coastline is vulnerable to rising sea levels. A UN report revealing that many communities in the Niger Delta have lost or fear losing their homes due to coastal erosion.
Rising global temperatures will also endanger Nigerians with an increasing frequency of heat waves. Nigeria’s Climate Risk profile predicts that more than 20% of the population will be exposed to heatwaves that are detrimental to human health. And the number of “very hot days” is set to increase by about 90 days in most regions.
Nigeria’s economy is predominantly built upon oil and gas exports, profits from fossil fuels accounting for 93% of Nigeria’s export revenue. Nigeria produced 129 metric tons of CO2 in 2023, the 4th highest emissions in Africa.
The bulk of Nigeria’s emissions are from oil and gas production, and the practice of “gas venting”, where unwanted gases surfaced during oil production – predominantly methane – are released into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 28 times more potent that carbon dioxide.
There is also “gas flaring”, the practice of burning off surfaced gases, releasing carbon dioxide as a by-product that contributes to emissions. An estimated 6.6 billion cubic metres of gas was flared in Nigeria in 2021 – making it the world’s seventh largest gas flarer.
Despite the massive production of oil and gas, Nigeria has one of the highest rates of energy poverty in the world. The World Economic Forum defines energy poverty as the ‘lack of access to modern energy services and products’, a situation where there is an absence of sufficient choice in accessing adequate, reliable, affordable, safe, and environmentally suitable energy services.
Lawson writes from Lagos.

By: Humphrey Lawson