Oil & Energy

Can OPEC+ Meet Production Quotas In 2022?

Published

5 years ago

January 17, 2022

OPEC+ is planning to ramp up production in the coming months. Analysts are estimating that this increase in output could help stabilize oil prices.
The alliance has consistently undershot its collective production targets, however, suggesting that assumptions of relief may be missing the mark.
In recent weeks, oil market participants have focused on the potential impact of the Omicron variant on demand and the expected surplus in early 2022, apparently forgetting about one major bullish driver next year — the inability of the OPEC+ group to pump as much oil as its rising monthly targets call for.
Estimates of a large oversupply in the first quarter of 2022 have mainly rested on the assumption that OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, led by Russia, would be able to deliver the planned 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in overall production each month.
The OPEC+ group, however, has been undershooting its collective production targets for months and will likely continue to do so in the months ahead.
African OPEC members lack the capacity and investments to boost production, Russia is estimated to pump and export lower volumes than its quota, and the biggest Arab Gulf producers have the means to raise output but at the expense of shrinking their spare production capacity, which accounts for the majority of the spare capacity globally.
The alliance’s inability to deliver on its production targets – with some estimates putting the overall output at around 650,000 bpd-730,000 bpd below the collective quota – is set to support oil prices next year, analysts say.
This underproduction could even become a major upside for oil next year, especially if Omicron’s dent to global oil demand remains limited to jet fuel as the most recent estimates and analyses show at the end of 2021.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait have accounted for most of the export growth within the OPEC+ group in recent months, according to an analysis by energy research service HFI Research inSeeking Alpha.
OPEC and Russia have raised their combined crude oil exports by around 1.8 million bpd since June, HFI Research found, based on data from Kpler. Yet, all of that export growth and more – 2 million bpd – have come from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.
Per the data HFI Research has compiled from Kpler, two of the largest producers in the pact – OPEC’s No. 2 Iraq and the leader of the non-OPEC group, Russia – have seen their respective crude oil exports drop in the past month.
These estimates suggest that the big GCC producers, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, are supporting the OPEC+ group’s export growth, in the meantime reducing their spare production capacity, setting the stage for higher oil prices and heightened volatility in case of sudden supply disruptions.
If OPEC+ continues to unwind its cuts, the first quarter of 2022 will see a surplus of 1.7 million bpd, and the oversupply could grow to 2 million bpd in the second quarter of 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest Oil Market Report for December.
“Much needed relief for tight markets is on the way, with world oil supply set to overtake demand starting this month,” the IEA noted.
Yet, the assumptions of the agency, and of other forecasters and analysts, take into account the expectation that OPEC+ will deliver on its planned output increases each month, which the group hasn’t been doing for months.
Declining spare capacity in the Middle East and the continued underproduction from African OPEC producers are set to support oil prices next year, especially if Omicron turns out to be less destructive for demand as initially feared.
Cancellation of flights has hit jet fuel demand once again, but overall, demand for other oil products globally seems to hold resilient despite record surges in COVID cases in many countries.
In Asia, road traffic has been heavier in December than in November, data from Apple’s mobility statistics cited by Bloomberg showed.
In the United States, “implied oil demand on a 4-week basis just hit an all-time high for this time of the year,” HFI Research noted on Wednesday after the EIA reported a draw of 3.6 million barrels for the week to December 24.
If global oil demand proves resilient through the Omicron wave and rises further as expected in 2022, OPEC+ struggling to pump to targets will support oil prices next year.

By: Tsvetana Paraskova
Paraskova Reports for Oilprice.com

Oil & Energy

‘Revamping Moribund Refineries ‘ll Address Rising Cost Of Petroleum Products’

Published

1 month ago

September 21, 2026

The Tide

An Energy Expert, Dr Joseph Obele, has called on the Federal Government and the management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to urgently restart the government – owned refineries insisting that it would help in curbing the rising cost of petroleum products.

He insisted that bringing back the moribund public refineries would further serve as a direct response to the plight of Nigerians as far as petroleum products is concerned.

Obele, who is also the Public Relations Officer (PRO) of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) and Lecturer at the Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, while reacting to the cost of petrol said the immediate and practical approach to addressing the current increase in petroleum prices is to restore production at the government-owned refineries and maximise every available refining capacity in the country.

“The immediate approach to the recent rise in petroleum prices is to restart the government-owned refineries”, he said.

Obele insisted that restoring functional government-owned refining capacity would increase domestic supply, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and contribute to greater stability in the downstream petroleum market.

He urged the federal government to maximise all available refining capacity while continuing to encourage responsible private-sector Investment and healthy competition within the downstream petroleum industry.

Obele expressed concern over the continued rise in crude oil prices amid the ongoing tensions involving the United States and Iran and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, warning that sustained supply risks could continue to put pressure on global petroleum prices.

He noted that Brent crude closed at about $105.83 per barrel on 16 September 2026, while WTI closed at about $102.43 per barrel.

The impact, the expert said, is already being felt in the Nigerian downstream market, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) reportedly selling in the range of ?1,400–?1,500 per litre in some locations, while Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) is selling above ?2,000 per litre.

“The immediate approach to the recent rise in petroleum prices is to restart the government-owned refineries”, Obele said.

According to him, restoring functional government-owned refining capacity will increase domestic supply, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and contribute to greater stability in the downstream petroleum market..

He warned that a prolonged increase in petroleum prices would have a wider economic impact, particularly on transportation, food, medical services and other essential commodities.

“The continuous increase in the cost of petroleum products will invariably affect the prices of virtually all commodities and services. It will create additional inflationary pressure and deepen the financial hardship being experienced by Nigerians”, he stated.

Obele noted that the prolonged dormancy of government-owned refineries has had serious economic and employment implications across the petroleum value chain, affecting workers, contractors, marketers, transporters, businesses and other dependants of the sector.

According to him, a functional Port Harcourt and Warri Refinery would stimulate activities across the petroleum value chain, support employment and restore confidence among industry stakeholders.

In his words, ‘the Port Harcourt Refinery should become a measurable demonstration of government’s commitment to the welfare of Nigerians”

He further noted that the Port Harcourt Refinery had previously recorded production activities arguing that the focus should now be on resolving operational challenges and returning the facility to sustainable production.

“The time to restart the Port Harcourt Refinery is now. Nigerians cannot continue to bear the unbearable cost of petroleum products when domestic refining capacity is available. Every viable refinery should be optimally utilised in the national interest”

Obele emphasised that the objective should not be to undermine private-sector refineries but to ensure that all viable refining assets—government and private—contribute to national energy security, adequate supply and a competitive downstream petroleum market.

Lady Godknows Ogbulu

Oil & Energy

The Race To Cut Methane Emissions Is Exposing A Global Divide

Published

1 month ago

September 21, 2026

The Tide

Several countries worldwide have been working to reduce methane leaks, with some states making significantly more progress than others. The establishment of the Global Methane Pledge in 2021 at the COP26 climate summit has helped accelerate cleanup efforts; however, many countries are still falling behind on their methane-cutting pledges. Now, one of the world’s biggest methane polluters – Turkmenistan – is aiming to plug its mega leaks, which would help reduce global methane emissions and could encourage other countries to do the same.

The United States and the European Union led the Global Methane Pledge, which has since been signed by 159 countries that together contribute around 45 per cent of global human-caused methane emissions. The pledge aims to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030.

Many governments had already made ambitious pledges to reduce carbon emissions, but some had not previously sought to cut methane emissions, which heat the planet up to 80 times more than carbon dioxide over two decades. Methane has contributed around 30 per cent of the increase in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, and fossil fuels contribute around one-third of the methane emissions from human activity. Record production of oil, gas, and coal, combined with limited mitigation efforts, has kept emissions above 120 million tonnes (Mt) annually, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA’s annual Global Methane Tracker shows how much methane is emitted each year and tracks progress and failures. In 2024, abandoned wells and mines accounted for roughly 8 Mt of methane emissions, demonstrating the severity of leaving them unplugged. It is extremely hard to track methane emissions as they are widely underreported. Some parts of the world have little or no measurement-based data on methane emissions.

Therefore, the IEA has to rely on data from scientific studies, measurement campaigns, and large emissions events detected by satellites to estimate emissions each year. Some regions of the world, such as Europe, report their methane emissions far more accurately than other parts. The IEA estimated that global energy-related methane emissions are about 80 per cent higher than those reported by countries to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Some countries contribute heavily to the world’s methane emissions, particularly oil-rich countries that have not effectively decommissioned fossil fuel operations for decades, including Turkmenistan, the United States, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. A 2023 Guardian assessment revealed that Turkmenistan was the worst country for methane mega-leaks. Some of Turkmenistan’s “super-emitters” leaked tonnes of methane every hour, from a single valve or pipeline, which is more than the emissions from an entire coal-fired power station. The assessment showed that the methane emissions alone from Turkmenistan’s two main fossil fuel fields contributed more to global heating in 2022 than the United Kingdom’s entire carbon emissions. The findings have led to significant public backlash and put pressure on the government to address the problem.

This year, Turkmenistan approved a massive clean-up project, as the country started plugging its mega-leaks. Turkmenistan has halted eight leaks by repairing corroded pipes, faulty wells, and failing flares, according to data from the United Nations. However, significant work is needed to reduce the country’s methane emissions. The UN Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) has delivered 192 alerts of methane plumes to Turkmenistan over the last year. According to the system, Turkmenistan had nine of the world’s top 50 worst methane leaks of the last six months.

Turkmenistan has improved its reporting systems in recent years and responded to around 20 per cent of the alerts with on-the-ground information about the leaks and potential plans to fix them. By comparison, the United States was sent 138 alerts and did not respond to any. The worst detected methane leak came from Mexico’s offshore oil and gas operations and measured a huge 37 tonnes per hour, equivalent to the emissions of over 7 million SUVs. Although Mexico responded to all 23 MARS alerts, it has yet to fix the leak.

Meghan Demeter, the programme manager of MARS, stated, “These mitigation cases are a proof point of what can be done with satellite data, especially in situations like Turkmenistan, where there are a lot of detections… This is a breakthrough in terms of having real documented mitigation action. But it is not yet a breakthrough in the overall magnitude of emissions. Eight cases is an incredible first step, but there are also a lot more sources in Turkmenistan that need to be addressed. We are in pretty constant communication, and the response rate is growing month by month. We’re seeing steady progress.”

UN tracking has also encouraged other countries in the region to plug leaks, with Kazakhstan, another former Soviet republic with ageing oil and gas infrastructure, stopping eight leaks following alerts. To date, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina have 100 per cent response rates to MARS alerts, while Libya and Azerbaijan have high response rates. Meanwhile, the United States, Iran, Russia, and China failed to respond to any alerts.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com 16

Oil & Energy

Delta Targets 120MW Power Boost, Moves To Cut Reliance On National Grid

Published

2 months ago

September 7, 2026

The Tide

The Delta State Government has intensified efforts to boost electricity generation and supply in the state with plans to add 120 megawatts (MW) to the national grid through a partnership with Supply Power.

The State Commissioner for Works (Rural Roads) and Public Information, Charles Aniagwu, disclosed this at a press conference in Asaba, weekend, noting that the initiative was part of wider reforms aimed at opening up the power sector to private investors.

Aniagwu, who was accompanied by the Executive Assistant to the Governor on New Media, Felix Ofou, said the state was exploring alternative sources of electricity to support businesses, households and communities while reducing pressure on the national grid.

He said the government was particularly interested in exploiting Delta’s abundant natural gas resources for power generation, pointing to the Kwale Free Trade Zone, which is part of the state’s special economic zone, as a major opportunity for investors.

According to him, prospective investors were taken to the zone during the state’s recent economic summit to enable them to assess the availability of gas as a key raw material for electricity generation. ComparePower Rates

The commissioner explained that generating more electricity locally would not only increase supply in Delta but also free up power on the national grid for use by other consumers.

Aniagwu cited the 8.5MW Independent Power Plant located behind the state secretariat in Asaba as an example of what could be achieved through alternative power sources.

He said the facility had enabled the secretariat complex to operate independently of the national grid, thereby making the electricity that would otherwise have been consumed there available to other users.

He added that the planned 120MW partnership with Supply Power would further strengthen the state’s electricity supply capacity and provide a more reliable power base for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Aniagwu said the state government was also intervening in areas traditionally regarded as the responsibility of electricity distribution companies because inadequate power supply could no longer be allowed to constrain economic development. LearnQuantum Physics

He identified the extension of the electricity grid from Abraka towards the Ndokwa axis as one of the interventions being undertaken to connect more communities to electricity.

The commissioner, however, raised concerns over the burden placed on communities that are often required to provide transformers and other electricity infrastructure, only for distribution companies to take over the facilities and subsequently collect electricity bills without adequately accounting for the investments made by the communities.

He said the state would continue to support efforts aimed at energising communities, noting that improved electricity supply would stimulate businesses, create jobs and help tackle social problems associated with unemployment and idleness.

On regulation, Aniagwu said the government was working with the Ministry of Energy and a committee set up to develop an appropriate regulatory framework for the state’s emerging power sector. SwitchEnergy Plans

He said the proposed energy commission would be responsible for regulating new electricity producers, determining appropriate tariffs and overseeing distribution networks.

The commissioner stressed that liberalising the sector required effective regulation to protect consumers and investors, adding that decisions on power distribution infrastructure, including the use of overhead or underground lines, must take into account the peculiarities and safety requirements of each location.

He warned that power expansion without adequate regulation could expose residents to electrocution and other hazards, stressing the need to protect electricity infrastructure while ensuring consumers were not subjected to unfair pricing.

Aniagwu said the state government’s broader objective was to build an efficient and sustainable electricity market driven by private investment and capable of powering businesses, households and communities across Delta State.