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FG ’s Budget Faces Crisis As OPEC Paints Gloomy Outlook For 2021
Despite the stability of oil prices at $50 per barrel in recent times, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has painted a mixed oil market outlook for 2021.
In his opening remarks at the 47th Meeting of the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), yesterday, via videoconference, OPEC Secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo, said, “Amid the hopeful signs, the outlook for the first half of 2021 is very mixed and there are still many downside risks to juggle. We are only beginning to emerge from a year of deep investment cuts, huge job losses and the worst crude oil demand destruction on record.
“Curbs on social and economic activity remain in place in a number of countries, and there is concern about the emergence of a pernicious new strain of the virus. Last night I saw on the news there are now about 30 countries that have reported this new strain.”
According to him, “Though the ongoing restrictions are necessary to combat the pandemic, they have chipped away at business sentiment and consumer confidence in some of the world’s biggest economies. It is too early to tell how quickly key sectors will bounce back to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories even if the vaccines defeat this terrible virus.
“Mr Chairman, sectorally, travel, tourism, leisure and hospitality continue to be affected. Our projections show that there will be rebound in the second half of 2021 with upside potential.
“However, it could be another a couple of years before these sectors bounce back to pre-Covid-19 levels, with corresponding lagging impact on oil demand.
“The Christmas Eve trade agreement between the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) is a promising development for the recovery process after months of very difficult and rancorous negotiations. Stimulus packages have clearly helped prevent deeper economic contractions and continue to lend crucial recovery support.
“The EU and US have now approved measures which, taken together, provide nearly $2trillion in additional support for those economies. It is worth noting that fiscal and monetary stimulus packages in the G20, including bank guarantees, have reached $25trillion, corresponding to more than 20 per cent of the global economy.”
Barkindo said, “Tomorrow, we begin a new chapter in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) with the start of monthly OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings to evaluate the market. It was only one year ago that the DoC participating countries began to introduce adjustments of a then-astonishing 1.7million b/d, with additional voluntary contributions pushing that number to 2.1 million b/d.
“These adjustments, as agreed at the 7th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in December 2019, were a pre-emptory response to support continued stability in 2020, actions that were welcomed widely as the market rang in a new and promising year. Looking back at the projections provided by the JTC, I don’t think anyone could have done a better job.
“In retrospect, those efforts taken at the end of 2019 pale in comparison to the scope and scale of the actions we have carried out since a series of ground-breaking Ministerial Meetings in April, June, and culminating in the visionary decisions taken at the last meeting one month ago today. The outcome of the December 3, Ministerial Meeting paved the way for a gradual return of 2million b/d to the market over the coming months, while the participating countries stand ready to adjust these levels depending on market conditions and developments.”
Barkindo said, “Collectively over the last nine months, we have delivered an unprecedented response to an unparalleled market shock and continue to lead the industry on the road to recovery. We are witnessing the very early stages of Covid-19 vaccinations and the progress so far has injected optimism into the economy. These promising developments, in parallel with the Declaration of Cooperation’s market leadership during the crisis, have contributed to a healthier oil market outlook for 2021.
“Following the last Ministerial Meetings, the price of Brent crude inched above $50 per barrel for the first time since early March, while Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate experienced their longest stretch of advances since June. After the unprecedented shock experienced last year, the economic forecast calls for brighter days ahead.
“Our analysts expect the global economy to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2021 compared to a sharp contraction of around 4.2 per cent last year. The Covid-19 vaccinations provide upside potential for the economic outlook and may help usher in a strong rebound in the second half of 2021.
“Furthermore, we continue to see upward momentum in Asia, especially China, which remains on course for positive growth in 2020 – a singular achievement among the world’s biggest economies. China’s broad-based recovery forecast stands at about 6.9 per cent for 2021 and provides a beacon of hope for other economies, in the region and beyond. Our analysts in the Secretariat anticipate that crude oil demand will shift from reverse to forward gear and rise to 95.9million b/d this year, a gain of 5.9million b/d from 2020. The non-OECD will be in the driver’s seat with growth of around 3.3million b/d”, Barkindo added.
Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka, has called on Nigerians to reject silence in the face of extrajudicial killings and other abuses of human rights.
Soyinka stressed that accountability and civic courage remain essential to rebuilding public confidence in the nation’s institutions.
He made the call during the 28th Wole Soyinka Lecture held in Port Harcourt, last Friday as part of activities marking his 92nd birthday.
The lecture, themed “Reclaiming the Nigerian State through Accountability, Justice and Civic Courage,” drew participants from different sectors of society.
The renowned playwright and human rights advocate said the country’s greatest tragedy was not only the unlawful killings carried out by state and non-state actors, but also the silence that often follows such incidents, allowing perpetrators to evade justice.
According to him, indifference by citizens to abuses of power and violations of fundamental human rights has contributed to the persistence of extrajudicial killings and other forms of injustice across the country.
Soyinka said he dedicated this year’s lecture to victims of unlawful killings, noting that the event was intended to honour individuals who had lost their lives as a result of failures within the justice system and society’s inability to protect the sanctity of human life.
He stressed that the lecture was dedicated to what he described as the basic unit of every society – the human being, and urged Nigerians to place greater value on human dignity irrespective of ethnicity, religion or social status.
The Nobel Laureate recalled several incidents of violence, including the fatal shooting and killing of a young man in Ugheli in Delta State by a police officer, and the mob killing of Deborah Yakubu in Sokoto State sometime ago, lamenting that many of those responsible are yet to face justice.
He expressed concern that some perpetrators of violent crimes had openly admitted their actions without fear of prosecution, describing such situations as evidence of serious failures within the nation’s justice system.
Soyinka maintained that when justice is delayed or denied, public confidence in state institutions continues to erode, thereby encouraging further violations of human rights.
Responding to critics who accuse him of promoting religious or ethnic divisions whenever he spoke on such issues, Soyinka dismissed the allegations and pointed out that his advocacy has always centred on the protection of human life and the rule of law.
He urged Nigerians to remain vigilant and continue demanding justice in cases of alleged extrajudicial killings, including the recent shooting of a young man by a police officer, stressing that every life deserves equal protection under the law.
The literary icon also recalled an earlier pledge by a past incoming president to make public the files relating to unresolved assassinations and extrajudicial killings, questioning the status of the promised investigations.
He challenged citizens to continue asking questions about unresolved cases, insisting that justice, accountability and respect for human dignity are indispensable to building a peaceful, democratic and inclusive Nigerian society.
The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) has clarified that there was no fire at Terminal 2 of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos, contrary to its earlier advisory.
Earlier yesterday, FAAN had announced that a fire incident had occurred at Terminal 2 of the nation’s busiest airport, and assured that its Aerodrome Rescue and Firefighting Service had been deployed to contain the situation.
There were also reports that activities were briefly disrupted at the airport yesterday after smoke was seen inside parts of the terminal.
Videos circulating online showed passengers kept standing outside the terminal while firefighters responded to the incident.
However, in an update issued less than two hours later by the Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection, Henry Agbebire, and posted on FAAN’s official X handle, the authority said preliminary findings showed that the smoke seen at the terminal was caused by the discharge of the facility’s FM-200 fire suppression system.
“Further to our earlier advisory regarding the incident at Terminal 2 of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos, the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) wishes to provide the following update,” the statement read.
“Preliminary findings indicate that there was no fire at the terminal. The smoke observed within the affected area resulted from the discharge of the terminal’s FM-200 fire suppression system. The reason for the activation of the fire suppression system is currently being investigated,” FAAN stated.
The authority said normal operations had resumed at the terminal while investigations were ongoing to determine the cause of the incident.
“Normal operations have since resumed at the terminal, while detailed investigations are ongoing to determine the exact cause of the incident,” the statement added.
The authority thanked passengers, airlines, airport users and other stakeholders for their understanding and cooperation.
FAAN appreciated the understanding and cooperation of passengers, airlines, airport users and all stakeholders, and reiterated its commitment to the safety and security of all airport operations.