Oil & Energy
Hydrocarbons Discourse
Proven Reserves Politics
This is the politics underlining quoted proven reserves by countries, particularly those in the OPEC platform. The intention mostly is to exaggerate the volume of hydrocarbons reserves available to the country in an effort to attract political and economic influence in world affairs. This has always worked for nations with the political and economic power to tilt issues towards their direction in order to achieve an objective.
Examples of such underlining political intrigues suffice: Sadad al-Huseini, former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, estimates 300 Gbbl (48×10^9 m3) of the world’s 1,200 Gbbl (190×10^9 m3) of proved reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources, though he did not specify which countries had inflated their reserves. Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company, has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390bn barrels. “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels (2.10×1010 m3) is almost one hundred billion over any realistic assay,” he said. Petroleum Intelligence Weekly reported that official confidential Kuwaiti documents estimate reserves of Kuwait were only 48 billion barrels (7.6×10^9 m3), of which half were proven and half were possible. The combined value of proven and possible is half of the official public estimate of proven reserves.
Prospective resources
Arctic Prospective Resources
A 2008 United States Geological Survey estimates that areas north of the Arctic Circle have 90 billion barrels (1.4×1010 m3) of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil (and 44 billion barrels (7.0×109 m3) of natural gas liquids) in 25 geologically defined areas thought to have potential for petroleum. This represents 13% of the expected undiscovered oil in the world. Of the estimated totals, more than half of the undiscovered oil resources were estimated to occur in just three geologic provinces – Arctic Alaska, Amerasia Basin, and East Greenland Rift Basins. More than 70% of the mean undiscovered oil resources were estimated to occur in five provinces: Arctic Alaska, Amerasia Basin, East Greenland Rift Basins, East Barents Basins, and West Greenland–East Canada. It was further estimated that approximately 84% of the oil and gas would occur offshore. The USGS did not consider economic factors such as the effects of permanent sea ice or oceanic water depth in its assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources. This assessment was lower than a 2000 survey, which had included lands south of the Arctic Circle.
Miscellaneous Prospective Resources
The Exclusive Economic Zone is a delineated offshore area, mostly to the west and north of Cuba which under international agreements is owned by Cuba. This 112,000 square kilometer zone has been divided into 59 exploration blocks. A 2004 joint partnership between a Spanish oil company and Cuba’s state oil company (CUPET) estimated Cuba’s off-shore reserves to be able to ultimately produce between 4.6 and 9.3 billion barrels of crude oil. The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that Cuba has resources up to 9 billion barrels (1.4×109 m3) of oil. In October 2008, the Cuban government announced that it had discovered oil basins which would double its total oil resources to 20 billion barrels (3.2×109 m3). Note that consistent with the definitions of Reserves and Resources as given in the above sections, at this stage (June 2009), given no commercial discoveries to date, all recoverable oil estimates in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) are Prospective Resources estimates and not Reserves estimates.
Traders have not been this bearish on oil in months or so bullish on United States natural gas in years.
The latest data on money managers’ positioning in the WTI and Brent crude and U.S. natural gas futures showed two contrasting trends—speculators are betting that oil prices would remain low or go even lower while increasing the bets that natural gas prices would continue marching higher.
So far this year, geopolitical and supply and demand factors have been increasingly bearish for the oil price outlook and increasingly bullish for natural gas prices.
In the oil market, hedge funds and other portfolio managers have been slashing their bullish bets since the end of January, when the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil trade were the primary bullish driver of managed money to bet on a tightening market.
With U.S. President, Donald Trump, now in office, the sentiment has quickly soured amid the president’s insistence on lower oil prices, his efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, and – most of all – the enormous uncertainty about on-and-off tariffs and tariff threats and their potential impact on the American economy.
As a result, market participants are preparing for lower oil prices, even amid expectations of declining oil supply from Iran and Venezuela due to President Trump’s hawkish policy toward these OPEC producers.
Speaking of OPEC, the wider OPEC+ group has just said it would begin increasing supply as of April, adding further downward pressure on prices.
Faced with all these bearish drivers, money managers have been reducing their bullish bets on crude oil futures, with the U.S. WTI Crude hitting the lowest net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – in 15 years at the end of February.
In the week to March 4, the latest reporting week with data released on March 7, speculators bought WTI amid a major selloff in all other commodities except for U.S. natural gas.
The net long in WTI rebounded from the 15-year low, but it wasn’t because the market suddenly started betting on higher prices going forward. The rise in WTI buying and the net long was the result of short covering in the U.S. crude futures contract.
In Brent, hedge funds cut their bullish-only bets in the week to March 4 for the biggest decline in longs since July 2024.
Unlike in crude oil, money managers have become increasingly bullish on U.S. natural gas after inventories dipped this winter to below the five-year average as demand surged in the coldest winter for six years.
The net long in natural gas further swelled in the week to March 4, as the number of new bullish bets was four times higher than the new short positions.
“Natural gas continues to benefit from rising demand, both domestically in the US and towards exports via LNG,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said, commenting on the latest Commitment of Traders report.
At the start of the winter heating season in November, U.S. natural gas inventories were higher than average for the time of the year as America entered the season with stocks at their highest level since 2016.
These stocks, however, were quickly depleted during the coldest winter for six years, with demand for space heating and power generation soaring. A month before the end of the winter heating season, U.S. natural gas inventories have now slumped to below the five-year average and well below the levels from the same time in 2024, at the end of a mild winter.
The lower inventories and the higher demand – both for domestic consumption and LNG exports – have pushed prices higher, encouraging producers to boost gas output this year. Traders bet that prices will go even higher as demand from LNG plants is set to accelerate with the ramp-up of new U.S. export plants.
Paraskova writes for Oilprice.com.
By: Tsvetana Paraskova
Renaissance Africa Energy Holdings says it has successfully completed the acquisition of 100 percent equity holding in the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC).
Spokesperson of the company, Tony Okonedo, who disclosed this in a Press Release, Last Thursday, said Renaissance has completed all processes for the full transfer of ownership of SPDC to the consortium, adding that it will now operate as Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited.
“Renaissance Africa Energy Holdings today announced that it has successfully completed the landmark transaction between itself and Shell for the acquisition of the entire (100%) equity holding in the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC).
“This follows the signing of a sale and purchase agreement with Shell in January 2024 and obtaining all regulatory approvals required for the transaction. Going forward, SPDC will be renamed as ‘Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited.
“Going forward, SPDC will be renamed as ‘Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited’.
“Renaissance Africa Energy Holdings is a consortium consisting of four successful Nigerian independent oil and gas companies: ND Western Limited, Aradel Holdings Plc. FIRST Exploration and Petroleum Development Company Limited and the Waltersmith Group, each with considerable operations experience in the Niger Delta, and Petrolin, an international energy company with global trading experience and a pan African outlook”, the statement reads.
Speaking on the acquisition, the Managing Director/CEO, Renaissance Africa Energy Holding,Tony Attah, said Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited has a vision to be the leading oil and gas producer in Africa and to help the continent achieve energy security.
Attah expressed gratitude to the Federal Government for its support and pledged the company’s commitment to the Petroleum Industry Act.
“We are extremely proud to have completed this strategic acquisition. The Renaissance vision is to be ‘Africa’s leading oil and gas company, enabling energy security and industrialization in a sustainable manner’.
“We and our shareholder companies are therefore pleased that the Federal Government has given the green light for this milestone acquisition in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act”, he said.
The CEO acknowledged the contributions of Nigeria’s Minister of Petroleum Resources, the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) in facilitating the deal.
He said, “we extend our appreciation to the Honourable Minister of Petroleum Resources, the CEO of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and the CEO of Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) for their foresight and belief, paving the way for the rapid development of Nigeria’s vast oil and gas resources as strategic accelerator for the country’s industrial development”.
The Statement further revealed that Renaissance partner companies collectively have an asset base of more than $3 billion and currently safely produce approximately 100,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) from 12 oil mining leases and operate two functioning modular refineries in Nigeria’s Niger Delta.
The Federal Government has cautioned oil-rich communities against infighting and disruption of oil production, saying it could hinder their access to the Host Community Development Fund.
Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, made the appeal while speaking at the KEFFESO Stakeholders Forum, in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.
Lokpobiri noted that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) was enacted to bring stability to the oil sector and address longstanding grievances about underdevelopment in host communities.
He lamented, however, that internal disputes among stakeholders have made it difficult for these communities to access and utilize the funds meant for their development.
Lokpobiri insisted that host communities must overcome internal conflicts that hinder their access to the funds.
“This KEFFESO Stakeholders Forum is to see how host communities can maximize the benefits from the Host Communities Trust Funds as prescribed by the PIA.
“If oil production is disrupted, everyone loses — the Federal Government, oil companies, and the host communities themselves. That is why host communities must collaborate with the government and oil companies to ensure smooth operations” Lokpobiri stated.
The Minister called on Host Community Development Trusts (HCDTs) in the Niger Delta to effectively utilize the 3% operational funds allocated to them under the PIA 2021 to drive sustainable development.
He further called that oil-producing communities should take ownership of the oil and gas facilities within their domains and work with relevant stakeholders to ensure sustainable benefits.
“As stakeholders who have their respective stakes in oil and gas operations in the country, we should work together to ensure that we maximize the benefits of oil and gas.”
The minister also emphasized the global push for cleaner energy, warning that the relevance of fossil fuels depends on their extraction and marketability.
“Don’t forget there is a global campaign against the continuation of production of fossil fuel.
“Fossil fuel will never go away. Fossil fuel will not have any value unless you bring it out of the ground or from the sea to the market, that is why we need this collaboration,” he said.
In his remarks, the Executive Secretary, Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), Engr. Omotsola Ogbe, reaffirmed the board’s commitment to leveraging the provisions of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act.
Represented by the Board’s Director of Legal Services, Naboth Onyesoh, Ogbe noted that the NCDMB’s Community Content Guidelines were designed to ensure sustained community engagement as local content is prioritized throughout the oil and gas value chain.
Ogbe praised the KEFFESO Host Community Development Trust for its efforts in ensuring that oil revenues benefit local communities.
Also speaking, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, First E & P, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, described the KEFFESO Stakeholders Forum as a crucial platform for discussing and strategizing solutions to the challenges facing marginalized communities in the Niger Delta.
He reiterated the company’s commitment to fostering meaningful and sustainable development in the region.
The forum, themed “Envisioning Sustainable Community Development in Niger Delta Host Communities: Identifying Challenges and Actualising The PIA Paradigm Shift,” brought together key stakeholders to discuss strategies for maximising the benefits of the Petroleum Industry Act(PIA).