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Cautious Optimism As Naira Rebounds

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It has been good news since the past three weeks as our national currency, the Naira, continues to regain its lost value. The recovery follows frantic efforts by a government whose ill-advised, inaugural policies had set the legal tender, and the whole economy, tumbling.
The naira took an unprecedented plunge from last June and hit bottoms by the middle of March, 2024, following a hasty decision by President Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, to let it float freely on the market forces of demand and supply, in addition to removing petroleum subsidy, in disregard of the handicap of Nigeria’s import-dependence.
Without provisions to boost productions that satisfy domestic demands, or prime export capacities to balance import pressures on the local currency, a floating naira depreciated by 25 per cent in a single day in June, 2023, dropping to N1,950 per dollar in March, 2024, from about N750 per dollar earlier in May, 2023, while the price of petrol jumped overnight to 295 per cent, from N189 to N557. By December, 2023 overall inflation, according to official estimates, reached 28.92 per cent and food inflation shot beyond 33.33 per cent.
According to a World Bank report, whereas about 24 million Nigerians crossed the poverty line during the first half of 2023, in the twilight of the Buhari administration, situations got worse by the end of 2023, when accelerating inflations ushered-in by Tinubu’s hasty policies, pushed 63 per cent of Nigerians (about 133 million) into multi-dimensional poverty.
By the first quarter of 2024 hardships drove restive youths to near-uprising, which forced government into another haste – a concoction of palliatives – ironically, a form of subsidy, which it had earlier denounced as government wastefulness.
With the naira regaining its losses, it appears a panicky government has finally groped unto a solution. But if Mr President’s men are remorseful for the havoc done to Nigerians, they should be more sober this time in their computations to avoid distressing the country further.
The Federal Government has resorted to offloading dollar raised from sovereign bonds (in essence, loans), petroleum export proceeds and drawdowns from the external reserves, into the economy to reduce Foreign Exchange (FX) supply pressures, and to help it buy time in the hope of finding solutions to the wider unfavourable economic fundamentals bedevilling the economy.
On the dollar demand side, government has freed-up official restrictions that it believes created artificial scarcities that favour the black market. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has also cleared-off a backlog of FX obligations to assure investors, lifted the ban on sale of dollar to Bureau De Change Operators (BDCs), clamped down on currency speculators, closed down Binance, a crypto platform government accused of opaque dealings with money launderers, and borrowed dollar through short-term, sovereign bonds to ‘defend’ the naira.
Ever since, the CBN has offloaded dollar to BDCs at progressively reduced rates in the hope of prompting currency hoarders to cut losses and release supposed stockpiles. But in a clime where looted funds are desperately exchanged and exported, not much may be squeezed from hoarders, if surveillance is not stepped up. However, as at April 8, 2024, the CBN has offloaded a second tranche of $10,000 per BDC operator at N1,101 per dollar with a charge not to sell above 1.5 per cent margin. Many predict the CBN would offer the dollar below N1,000 in the coming weeks.
But for how long can the CBN go on with its bonanza to ‘defend the Naira’?  And what has been the cost of that defence? While the impact of strengthening naira is yet to reflect on commodity prices in Nigeria, the nation’s foreign reserve has dropped within 18 days by $0.95billion, down from $34.45billion on March 18, 2024, to N33.50billion on April 3, which represents a daily average depletion rate of $52.78 million. This is despite the $3billion loan from the AFREXIMBANK and petro-dollar revenues also thrown into the fray. To sustain its strengths, reports say the federal government plans to take stabilisation loans by June, 2024, speculated at a tune of $15billion, through the issuance of domestic bonds denominated in foreign currency. FG seeks the loans within the window of short-term, volatile Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) bonds which may disappoint the country in times of crises, as against Foreign Direct Investments which are more reliable. According to Bloomberg reports, FG has contacted investment banks, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs and Citibank NA, for advice on Eurobonds, but Nigeria’s Debt Management Office denies Federal Executive Council’s approvals for such.
Certainly, a stronger currency is beneficial to an import-dependent nation like Nigeria, but without strengthening national productivity to generate surpluses for trade-balancing exports, the pursuit of merely high currency valuation becomes a vain strategy. While the naira strengthens, the reality of the adverse economic fundamentals that erode its worth remain unchanged, implying that its buoyancy rides merely on costly FX floods being pumped by the CBN. It is easy to guess the result, should the CBN halt supply.
For years Nigeria relied on its petroleum sector which at present provides about 78 per cent of FX earnings, but constitutes far less than 10 per cent of its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), implying that to stabilise, Nigeria needs to grow its non-oil sector of over 90 per cent of GDP. Even the petroleum revenue is endangered by sabotage, illegal bunkering, dwindling investments and insecurity.
The FG may have taken the bet that sustaining the naira could buy it time from hard-pressed Nigerians, in the hope that a number of tangible local productions might kick-off. Notable among the expectations is the Dangote Refinery which, with its 650,000 barrels per day refining capacity, is expected to satisfy local demands of petroleum products to ease the huge FX demand in that front, and may hopefully earn FX through exports. Already, Dangote’s recent release of 100 million litres of diesel crashed the price of the product from N1,700 to N1,350, with another batch of 100 million litres expected to crash prices further, while the company plans to supply petrol by next month, but government-owned refineries which have drained so much resources remain dysfunctional. Again, the recent break through against reprocity flight barriers between the UK and Nigeria by Airpeace, reportedly crashed ticket prices to UK by 60 per cent.
FG may also see reliefs in the successful take-off in Aba, of 24-hour power supply by the Geometric Group and the recent commissioning of 700 Megawatt Zungeru hydro-electricity station, a tomatoe processing plant in Nassarawa, and a steel mill in Kaduna. However, agricultural, petroleum and manufacturing sectors remain at  their lowest and beseiged by insecurity, while the financial services sector appears to be strong but has incommensurate impact on industrialisation. If government does not encourage productivity in the real economy, its efforts in buoying the naira would be hopeless, while Nigeria falls deeper in debts. Already, as at December 31, 2023, Nigeria’s total debt stood at $106billion, while the 2024 budget of N28.7 trillion projects a deficit of N9.8 trillion to be debt-financed.
When public debt grows fast ahead of GDP growth rate, mounting debt service costs under-cut funds required for investment. That became the plight of Nigeria from Buhari’s era, when from 2016 to 2022 public debt grew by yearly average of 52.4 per cent, and GDP below 2 per cent. In that fateful 2022, debt service cost exceeded government revenue, which is why we are where we are.
The International Monetary Fund projects that Nigeria’s reserve would plummet to $24billion by end of 2024. Meanwhile, a nation’s FX reserve reflects the country’s balance of payments and its ability to settle international obligations. Severe declines in reserve may erode investor confidence and lead to downgrading of its credit ratings, which further worsens the nation’s borrowing costs.
Therefore the current approach towards buoying the Naira through loans can not be any other thing, but a gamble.

By: Joseph Nwankwo

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Opinion

Imbibing Leadership Qualities Of Pope Francis

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The world emptied at the Vatican City, Rome, Italy last week for the burial of late Pope Francis, the head of the Catholic Church worldwide who died on April 21. Foreign delegates from 164 countries attended the funeral. Among them were the President of the Nigeria’s Senate, Godswill Akpabio, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Bianca Ojukwu, the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Hassan Kuka and other politicians, who were there on behalf of President Bola Tinubu and the entire nation.
Right from the day the Pontiff passed on, through the days preceding his burial, till the day his corpse was laid to rest and uptill now, a lot has been spoken about his great leadership qualities which stood him out among many other leaders in the world.
Some say that in a world increasingly defined by power struggles, materialism, and political division, Pope Francis stood as a rare symbol of humility and selflessness. Since his election in 2013, he redefined what it meant to lead not just a church, but a global moral community. More than just a spiritual figure, Pope Francis was a powerful voice for the voiceless, championing compassion, justice, and mercy.
Others say that from the very beginning of his papacy, Jorge Mario Bergoglio—Pope Francis—made clear that he intended to chart a different course. Choosing to live in the modest Vatican guesthouse rather than the opulent Apostolic Palace, he signaled that his papacy would not be about grandeur. He traded the red papal shoes for simple black ones, and when he was introduced to the world, he asked the crowd to pray for him before offering his own blessing. These symbolic acts spoke volumes about the kind of leader he aspired to be.
Perhaps, the most talked about quality of the cherished leader was his humility. In him, humility was not theoretical but practical. He repeatedly called for a “poor Church for the poor,” aligning the Catholic Church more closely with the needs of the marginalized. Whether washing the feet of prisoners on Holy Thursday or visiting refugee camps, Pope Francis embodied a theology that demands solidarity with the suffering.
Equally mentioned was his selflessness in the face of complex global challenges. He did not shy away from controversial topics—climate change, economic inequality, migration, and even internal Church reform. His encyclical Laudato Si’ challenged both political and economic leaders to treat the planet with reverence, not exploitation. He advocated for inclusive dialogue, calling on governments to welcome migrants as fellow human beings, not burdens.
The passing of Pope Francis indeed marked the end of an era defined by humility, moral clarity, and an unwavering commitment to justice.
nd the question for Nigerian leaders both those present at his funeral and those that couldn’t be there, both political, religious and traditional leaders and indeed all Nigerians is, what lessons can the country learn from the life of the Pontiff? How can we embrace his lifestyle to transform our national fabric?
Pope Francis showed the world that true leadership is rooted in service, not in pomp or power. He declined the luxuries of the papal palace and chose to live among the people. Our leaders, notorious for their obsession with opulence and entitlement, must learn that leadership is not about status symbols—convoys, sirens, and security details—but about responding to the needs of the people with empathy and action.
In a country where public officials often equate success with extravagance, the lifestyle of Pope Francis should teach us that simplicity does not diminish influence. He wore modest clothing, drove a humble car, and redirected attention away from himself and toward the marginalized. Even at death, his coffin was made of simple wood. If our leaders, contractors, heads of institutions and others can practice such simplicity, certainly more resources will be available for education, health, and infrastructure. Nigerians will stop dying of hunger because there will be enough money to invest in farming and other agricultural activities.
Pope Francis was a champion of the poor, migrants, and the forgotten. He spoke boldly against exclusion, even within the Church. As a matter of fact, many Catholics, particularly the divorced and the civilly remarried who could not receive communion, started receiving communion. A close childhood friend of mine belongs to this group. After her first marriage crashed, she remarried but could no longer receive communion until Pope Francis’s Amoris Laettia (The Joy of Love) document of April 8, 2016, began to reshape in our local parishes.
Ours is a deeply divided nation—ethnically, religiously, and politically. Our leaders must rise above sectional interests to promote inclusion, heal old wounds, and govern with the common good in mind. The practice of one law for one tribe or a particular section of the country and other for others should be jettisoned.
Expectedly, Pope Francis’s papacy was not without challenges. Scandals within the Church, resistance from conservative factions, and geopolitical tensions tested his resolve. Some critics even said that his positions were too progressive, even disruptive. Yet even in the face of criticism, he maintains a posture of listening, forgiveness, and dialogue. He did not back down from calling out injustice, environmental degradation, or corruption.
Nigerian leaders should stop prioritizing personal survival over national progress. Currently there is a defection wave going on in the country. Political leaders are dumping the political parties under which they were elected by the people to join other political parties. How do their actions benefit the people that elected them? Some Nigerians for tribal reasons and political profiteering will choose to keep mum in the face of injustice against their fellow citizens. Just as Pope Francis, speaking and acting against injustice—no matter the cost—should be the standard, not the exception if Nigeria must move forward as a united entity.
Another striking attribute of Pope Francis was his ability to listen, dialogue and foster peace. He was a bridge-builder. He engaged atheists, Muslims, and people of all cultures in meaningful dialogue all geared towards peace in the world. In a country as diverse as Nigeria, listening to opposing views and working toward peaceful coexistence should be second nature to our leaders, not an afterthought.
Nigeria will be a better, more progressive country if both the leaders and the led realize that everybody cannot be on the same side of a bargain. Dissenting voices must always be there. Diverse opinions must exist. The ability to tolerate these views and accommodate the opponents is one of the great qualities of a good leader. That, too, is a form of humility—not weakness, but the strength to lead with openness and grace.
Francis never forgot that he was accountable not just to the Church, but to God and humanity. Nigerian leaders, especially those who publicly profess faith, must internalize the idea that leadership is a sacred trust. Governance should reflect conscience and character, not just calculation and convenience.
Pope Francis’s message was simple yet radical: to be truly great, one must serve. In this, he channeled not only the spirit of St. Francis of Assisi, whose name he bore, but also the core teachings of the Gospel. He brought the Catholic Church closer to the people—not by changing doctrine, but by changing tone. His humility was not performative; it was deeply woven into his actions, his words, and his witness.
In honoring the legacy of Pope Francis, Nigerians—leaders and citizens alike—must embrace a new kind of leadership: one marked by humility, sacrifice, and service to others. His life reminds us that change doesn’t begin with policies alone; it begins with character.
Adieu Humble Holy Father

By; Calista Ezeaku

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Opinion

Nigeria’s Insecurity And Co-Existence

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On April 21, as the clock struck 9 p.m., terror descended upon Desa, a tranquil town known officially as Ilesha Baruba, nestled in Kwara State’s Baruten Local Government. It’s just a few minutes away from my hometown.
“Masked in military fatigues, armed bandits shot sporadically at the town’s night market that was bustling with young men of different ethnicities having a good time and cold-bloodedly murdered eight innocent souls.
The terrorists began their rampage by brutally executing a Fulani man who was a member of the local vigilante. Multiple gunshots splattered his brains across the ground in a shockingly repellent spectacle of blood and tissue.
Five other Fulani people were gunned down. Tragically caught in the crossfire were also a Fon man from southern Benin Republic and a Baatonu native of the town.
What deepens the anguish is the apparent senselessness and inscrutability of it all. Eyewitness accounts said the assailants themselves were Fulani (based on the language they spoke). And they neither kidnapped nor stole.
Why did they kill fellow Fulani men? The Fon man and the Baatonu man appeared to be unintended targets. Was this just bloodthirsty nihilism? Did the Fulani men, who were integrated into the local community, betray the terrorists? Everyone is mystified.
Before April 21, though, the whole of Borgu had been gripped by paralyzing fears of the new terrorist group called Mahmuda. They had operated in Kebbi and Niger states and recently began to be seen in my part of Kwara State. In other words, they are now in all of what used to be collectively Borgu.
Borgu is a historic, multi-ethnic space, which comprises Baruten and Kaiama local governments in Kwara State, Borgu and Agwara local governments in Niger State, Bagudo and Dandi local governments in Kebbi State, and Borgou and Alibori departments (i.e., states) in Benin Republic.
It existed as a loose but powerful, storied, invincible, confederation of disparate kingdoms from the 1300s until the 1890s when Britain and France conquered and dismembered it.
Terrorists had been camped in the Kainji Lake National Park and in the part of Beninese portion Borgou that shares a boundary with Burkina Faso for more than a year. This year, they moved to Kaiama and parts of Yasikiru in Baruten LGA.
Efforts by residents to alert authorities initially brought hope when security forces raided terrorist hideouts and confiscated some of their weapons and equipment.
But rather than bringing relief, these actions incited vicious reprisals and transformed our communities into targets for heartrending sanguinary retaliation that spares no children, women, or the elderly.
The last week’s visit by Kwara State’s governor to Kaiama, intended as an assurance of protection, tragically became a catalyst for further bloodshed. Mere hours after his departure, terrorists punished the community with intensified violence and mercilessly murdered more innocent and helpless people.
Two days before the horrific events in Desa, ominous messages from the terrorists had spread across Baruten and Kaiama, imposing a curfew slated to begin at 10 p.m.
Yet even before it could be enforced, the terrorists struck unannounced, extinguished precious lives and spread dread.
This escalation leaves the people of Borgu in a state of disabling siege and fear. They have been robbed of the peace they once cherished.
My heart is broken beyond description. Borgu’s famed, time-honored tranquility now trembles beneath the weight of terror and grief.
The urgency for decisive, meaningful action to restore safety and peace has never been more critical.
Kperogi, a public affairs analyst, wrote in from Lagos.

By: Farooq Kperogi

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Opinion

Nigeria’s Poor Economy And High Unemployment Rates

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Nigeria, often referred to as the “Giant of Africa”, is endowed with vast natural resources,
a large population and a youthful workforce.
Despite these advantages, the country faces persistent economic challenges, most notably high unemployment rates over the years. Successive governments remain a central issue contributing to poverty, social unrest, and underdevelopment. The economic wellbeing of a nation is significantly tied to her employment levels.
In Nigeria’s case, high unemployment has become a key driver of its poor economic performance affecting everything from productivity and income levels to crime and political instability.
Unemployment in Nigeria has assumed a multidimensional nature, characterised not just by joblessness but also underemployment, informal employment and precarious working conditions.
The Nigeria National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) said the youth with over 60 percent of Nigeria’s population under the age of 30 percent youth unemployment is a time bomb threatening the nation’s future.
Many graduates leave universities and polytechnics annually with little or no hope of securing decent jobs.
This structural unemployment is the result of a mismatch between skills and labour market needs, inadequate industrialisation, and a weak private sector.
Unemployment affects an economy in numerous direct and indirect ways.
In Nigeria, it leads to a reduced consumer base, when large sections of the population are not earning steady incomes, they have limited purchasing power which in turn affects the production and growth of businesses. Companies produce less, invest less and hire fewer people, leading to a vicious cycle of low economic growth.
Moreover, high unemployment translates to lower tax revenue for the government with fewer people paying taxes. The government has fewer resources to fund infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other public services that stimulate economic development.
This fiscal weakness forces Nigeria to rely heavily on foreign loans, which leads to rising debt levels and economic vulnerability.
Furthermore, infrastructure deficits including inadequate power supply, poor road networks and limited access to credit make it difficult for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to thrive, yet SMEs are the bedrock of employment in many developed nations. Nigeria’s weak support for SMEs stifles innovation and job creation.
Another tragic consequence of high unemployment is the mass exodus of Nigerian talent to foreign countries in search of better opportunities. The brain drain weakens the country’s human capital base and deprives it of professionals who could contribute meaningfully to national development.
The “Japa” phenomenon-a slang used to describe young Nigerians fleeing the country reflects deep disillusionment with the system. Doctors, nurses, software engineers and other professionals are leaving in droves. The cost of training these individuals is absorbed by Nigeria, but their expertise benefits foreign economics. This dynamic further deepens the economic challenges as the country loses its best and brightest minds.
Addressing unemployment in Nigeria requires a multifaceted approach, first.
Secondly, industrialisation must be prioritised. The government should create an enabling environment for local manufacturing by improving infrastructure, reducing Bureaucratic bottlenecks and offering tax incentives reviving the agricultural sector with modern techniques and supply chains can also absorb a significant portion of the unemployed.
Thirdly, Governments at all levels must be held accountable for implementing job creation programmes transparently and effectively. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) should be encouraged to drive innovations and employment in ICT, renewable energy and logistics.
Finally, Nigeria must diversify its economy away from crude oil and invest in sectors that generate mass employment. Tourism, education, healthcare and creative industries such as film and music hold immense unlapped potential.
With genuine commitment from leaders, strong institutions and the active participation of the private sector and civil society, Nigeria can turn the tide on unemployment and chart a path toward sustainable economic prosperity.
Idorenyi, an intern with The Tide, is a student of Temple Gate Polytechnic
Abia State.

Biana Idorenyin

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