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Nigeria’s Debt Vulnerable, Costly, World Bank Alerts
The World Bank has disclosed that Nigeria’s debt, which may be considered sustainable for now, is vulnerable and costly.
According to the Washington-based global financial institution, the country’s debt is also at risk of becoming unsustainable in the event of macro-fiscal shocks.
The bank said this in the November edition of its Nigeria Development Update.
It said, “Nigeria’s debt remains sustainable, albeit vulnerable and costly, especially due to large and growing financing from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
“While currently the debt stock of 27per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is considered sustainable, any macro-fiscal shock can push debt to unsustainable levels.
“However, the debt to the GDP in Nigeria is rising quickly, and the total stock of debt in absolute value has almost doubled between 2016 and 2020, and without a policy change is expected to reach 40per cent of the GDP by 2025.”
The bank further expressed concerns over the nation’s cost of debt servicing, which according to it, disrupts public investments and critical service delivery spending.
“The cost of debt servicing is also a concern as it is potentially crowding out public investment and critical service delivery spending. Interest costs have been above two per cent of the GDP since 2018, reaching 2.4per cent of the GDP in 2019 and then falling to 2.2per cent of the GDP in 2020.
“Cost of debt is high as Federal Government also resorts to overdraft (Ways and Means financing) from the CBN to meet in-year cash shortfalls. At end of 2020, the stock of the CBN Ways and Means financing was estimated at N13.1trillion or 8.5per cent of the GDP,” it stated.
It, however, said that the Federal Government was making efforts to negotiate terms with the CBN in order to convert the stock of overdraft financing into a long-term debt instrument, which would lower the cost of debt for the government and enhance fiscal sustainability over the medium long term.
Economists have raised concerns over the rising debt profile of the Federal Government.
It would be recalled that the Federal Government has been planning to push its public debt stock to N50.22trillion by 2023, with domestic debt at N28.75trilion and external debt at N21.47trillion.
This was according to the projections in the National Development Plan 2021-2025.
The Debt Management Office had disclosed that Nigeria’s public debt was N38trillion as of the end of the third quarter of 2021, with the total debt stock rising by N2.540trillion in three months between July and September, 2021.
The NDP shows that the President Muhammadu Buhari-led Federal Government plans to accumulate about N12trillion debt in two years from 2021 to 2023.
However, based on the plan, the government targets a reduction in total public debt by 2025.
A tabular illustration in the document shows the government targets N39.59trillion debt stock for 2021, N46.63trillion for 2022, N50.22trillion for 2023, N50.53trillion for 2024, and N45.96trillion by 2025.
Analysts have agreed with the World Bank on the costly and vulnerable nature of Nigeria’s public debt.
The Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader of PwC, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, expressed his agreement with the World Bank’s assertion, highlighting the high cost of debt servicing.
He said, “I agree with the World Bank. Although the debt to GDP ratio is not too high, if you think about the debt service cost to revenue ratio, it is already over 70per cent. That’s when you know it’s costly.
“Nigeria borrows at double-digit, and even when we borrow in dollars, the rates are very high and then you devalue the naira and the cost of servicing the debt in naira goes up because it is dollar-dominated debt.
“Put all of that together, and you can easily say to yourself that even though our debt to GDP ratio is very low, our cost of borrowing is unsustainable because it is very high, and therefore, make it very costly.”
He advised the government to have an integrated debt-revenue-expenditure strategy, which would address expenditure efficiency, terms of borrowing, and revenue optimisation.
He also advised the government to reconsider its priorities regarding its national budget.
A former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and former presidential candidate, Kingsley Moghalu, also criticised the increasing borrowing tendency of the government, urging the officials to re-consider other ways of generating revenue for the country.
“There are many ways through which we can improve Nigeria’s domestic revenue situation without selling the future of our country. As to the argument that Nigeria does not have a debt problem but a revenue problem, that is mere sophistry. If you’re spending 90kobo of every one naira you earn repaying debt, you are insolvent.
“You cannot say that we have a debt-to-GDP ratio that allows you to continue borrowing. No! That is an argument for sustainable economies. You cannot be comparing Nigeria with advanced economies. We are in an economy that is still very basic.
“If you are not earning enough revenue, why are you borrowing? You are just compounding your problem. Why don’t you focus on where to get the revenue from instead of lazily ignoring that problem and just trying to survive with borrowing?
“If an individual was living a life that way, it would be a calamity. That is why Nigeria is in a calamitous situation today economically,” he said.
According to Moghalu, it is also not reasonable to borrow for infrastructural development as the government can expand the public-private partnership options for such development.
He said, “You cannot be borrowing for infrastructure. They should go and expand the PPP options for infrastructure.
“You don’t have to impoverish this country by borrowing. This is not sensible economic management.
“How sustainable economically are those infrastructures they claim to be building? Are they yielding enough money to pay back the debt?”
News
APC Presidential Primary: Fubara Commends Process, As Tinubu Sweeps Poll In Rivers
Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, has commended the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers State over the outcome of last Saturday’s presidential primary election that saw President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sweeping the poll with a total of 280,082 votes.
Fubara, who served as the State Collation Officer for the primary election, said that while the APC had a total of 297,068 registered members, the number of those accredited for the election was 280,082.
According to him, all those accredited for the election, cast their ballot for Tinubu, leaving Stanley Osifo, his only opponent, with no votes.
Fubara expressed delight at the peaceful and seamless process which he said was as a result of good planning by the party.
“I feel that this process has recorded one of the most organised outings of our great party in recent times. The only reason it came out this way has to do with good planning. In all, I want to say that I’m really impressed with the process.
“So, I can say here that having taken time to go through the figures diligently, I, Siminalayi Fubara, who is standing as the State Collation Officer, hereby certify that the information contained in my own spreadsheet represents the true, correct and accurate record of the summary of results from the 23 LGAs of Rivers State,” he said.
The governor said that while it was evident that President Tinubu defeated his opponent in the primary election in the State, the report would be sent to the APC headquarters in Abuja where the results will be formally declared.
News
Ogoni cleanup: Minister Calls For more support from private sector
The Federal Government has called for increased private sector participation and donor funding to sustain ongoing gains in the Ogoni environmental restoration project under the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project.
Speaking at a conference on donor facilitation and diplomatic support for HYPREP in Abuja, yesterday, the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, stressed that the Ogoni cleanup programme was designed as a long-term intervention requiring sustained funding, technical support, and international cooperation.
“The project is supposed to be a lifespan project. We must move towards achieving its main aim, which is environmental restoration and sustainable development,” he added.
Lawal acknowledged the contributions of the United Nations Environment Programme, describing its assessment as the scientific foundation of the ongoing remediation efforts in Ogoni land.
“We are all here because of that UNEP report. It provided the scientific foundation for what has become one of the world’s most ambitious environmental remediation programmes,” he said.
According to him, hundreds of hectares of hydrocarbon-polluted land have been remediated, while additional sites are currently undergoing cleanup operations.
“We have remediated hundreds of hectares of polluted land, and more sites are still being worked on. Water schemes have also been delivered to affected communities,” he stated.
He added that ecosystem restoration, livelihood support programmes, and healthcare projects were ongoing across affected communities.
“Body health facilities are being constructed, livelihood programmes are empowering thousands, and we are also restoring access to safe drinking water because the first victim of pollution is water,” he said.
The minister also disclosed that the Centre of Excellence for Environmental Restoration was nearing completion, describing it as a major milestone in the project.
“If you go there, you will see one of the biggest edifices being constructed under HYPREP. It will serve as a postgraduate and research institute for environmental remediation,” Lawal said.
Despite the progress, he warned that funding challenges remain a major threat to sustaining the project.
“While substantial progress has been made, the journey is not yet complete. The implementation of UNEP recommendations requires long-term commitment and sustained financial and technical support,” he said.
Lawal therefore, appealed to development partners, donor agencies, international financial institutions, foundations, and private sector players to scale up their support.
“We need your support—financial, technical, scientific, and strategic. No organisation or government can do it alone,” he said.
He further described the Ogoni cleanup as a global model for environmental recovery, climate resilience, and international cooperation.
“The restoration of Ogoni land is not merely a Nigerian undertaking; it is a global model. Its success will show what is possible when governments, communities, and partners work together,” he added.
Also speaking, the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Ogoni Trust Fund, Emmanuel Deeyah, said the conference was organised to attract financial, technical, and institutional support for the cleanup exercise.
“We are looking for resources, financial support, expertise, partnership, and collaboration. Government cannot do everything alone,” he said.
Deeyah said the agitation for environmental justice in Ogoni dated back to 1991 when residents drew global attention to the environmental degradation caused by oil exploration activities.
“We farm in Ogoni land and we also fish, but our waters were polluted and the land could no longer support farming activities,” he said.
He explained that the UNEP report recommended that oil companies should contribute $1bn every five years for 30 years to support the remediation programme.
“We have done 10 years now and we have not even received the full $1bn that was supposed to be contributed. The refineries and local operators have not contributed a dime,” he stated.
Last week, the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project announced the closure of 30 contaminated sites in Ogoniland, Rivers State, while investigations have commenced on 18 high-risk polluted locations in residential communities.
News
IGP pledges police protection for major projects
The Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Disu, yesterday paid a courtesy visit to the Federal Ministry of Works in Abuja as part of efforts to strengthen collaboration on critical infrastructure projects nationwide.
The visit, disclosed in a statement posted on X by the Nigeria Police Force, was attended by the Minister of Works, David Umahi; the Minister of State for Works, Bello Goronyo; and directors of the ministry.
According to the statement, discussions during the meeting centred on ongoing infrastructural projects nationwide, particularly the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and other major road construction initiatives aimed at improving national development and connectivity.
The police chief reportedly reaffirmed the NPF’s commitment to providing security support for the execution of critical national infrastructure projects across the country.
“The Nigeria Police Force will continue to provide adequate security support and deploy necessary operational resources to ensure the smooth execution and protection of critical national infrastructure projects nationwide,” the statement read.
The meeting was also said to have highlighted the need for stronger inter-agency collaboration in protecting public infrastructure from vandalism and other security threats capable of disrupting construction activities.
PUNCH reports that the Federal Government had raised concerns over acts of vandalism along the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway corridor, with Umahi warning that the destruction of drainage systems and road infrastructure could threaten the durability of the project.
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