Business

IMF Alerts On Fragile World Growth

Published

14 years ago

April 18, 2012

Global growth is slowly improving as recovery in the U.S. gains traction and dangers from Europe recede.

But risks remain elevated and the gains are very fragile, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday.

Another flare-up of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis or sharp escalation in oil prices on geopolitical uncertainty could easily undermine confidence and disrupt the improving growth path for world economy, the IMF said.

“With the passing of the crisis and some good news about the U.S. economy, some optimism has returned. It should remain tempered,” said Oliver Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, in the latest World Economic Outlook.

“Most advanced economies still face major brakes on growth.

“And the risk of another crisis is still very much present and could well affect both advanced and emerging economies,” he said.

The global economy is on track to expand this year by 3.5 per cent and by 4.1 per cent in 2013, up slightly from 3.3 per cent and 3.9 per cent GDP output respectively that the IMF had forecast in January.

The estimate arose when market concern was rampant that Greece could default and Italy and Spain were facing budget crises.

Since then, Greece has restructured its debt, Italy and Spain are adopting tough fiscal measures and euro-zone leaders have agreed to enlarge their bailout fund, causing financial market tensions to ease.

The U.S., meanwhile, is gradually gaining momentum while China and other emerging economies appear on track for gradual slowdowns without crashing, it said.

But the gains are precarious.

Should the euro zone crisis erupt once more, it could trigger a widespread dumping of risky assets and rob two per cent from global growth over two years and 3.5 per cent from the euro zone, the IMF warned.

Additionally, a 50 per cent increase in the price of oil would lower global output by 1.25 per cent, the IMF said.

To secure the global recovery, the IMF urged central banks in the U.S., euro zone and Japan to stand ready to deliver further monetary easing.

The easing will show in governments exercise of caution over the pace of budget cutbacks wherever feasible; and Europe will consider using public funds to overcapitalise banks.

While European leaders have made “major progress” in building fire walls against financial contagion, the region faces a tricky balance of cutting government debt and restoring competitiveness without excessively stifling growth, it warned.

European banks also are de-leveraging, which will reduce their balance sheets by 2.6 trillion dollars over the next two years and slice about one per cent from growth this year alone.

“Bad news on the macroeconomic or political front still carries the risk of triggering the type of dynamics we saw last fall,” the IMF said.

The euro zone is likely to endure a mild recession this year, shrinking by 0.3 per cent and then posting 0.9 per cent growth in 2013, the IMF said.

That is a minor improvement from the 0.5 per cent 2011 contraction followed by 0.8 per cent growth that it forecast in January.

Business

FG Approves ?758bn Bonds To Clear Pension Backlogs, Says PenCom

Published

4 days ago

November 3, 2025

The Tide

The Federal Government has approved ?758b in bonds to offset long-standing pension liabilities, including pension increases owed since 2007.

The Director-General, National Pension Commission, Omolola Oloworaran, disclosed this at a two-day Sensitisation Workshop on the workings of the Contributory Pension Scheme for Employees and Pensioners in the North-East, in partnership with the National Salaries, Incomes, and Wages Commission (NSIWC), and held in Yola, last Thursday.

Represented by the Commissioner for Administration in PenCom, Alhaji Bello Abubakar, Oloworaran described the approval as a bold step by President Bola Tinubu to bring relief to vulnerable pensioners and restore confidence in the pension system.

She said the workshop formed part of ongoing reforms to enhance awareness and deepen understanding of the CPS among retirees and other stakeholders.

According to her, other key interventions under the reforms included pension increases for over 241,000 retirees, representing 80 per cent of those under the programmed withdrawal arrangement.

“The increases raised monthly payments from ?12.15 billion to ?14.83 billion, effective from June 2025.

“The commission has also eliminated waiting time for pension payments, ensuring that, since July 2025, retirees now access their benefits immediately after retirement.

“The proposed reintroduction of gratuity for civil servants, with a framework developed to restore gratuity benefits for federal workers under CPS, in line with Section 4(4) of the Pension Reform Act (PRA) 2014,” she said.

The PenCom DG explained that the initiative was aimed at further enhancing post-retirement benefits and improving the welfare of pensioners.

Oloworaran stressed that the sensitisation workshop would help address misconceptions and build public confidence in the CPS while offering an opportunity for engagement, feedback, and trust-building with stakeholders.

Also speaking, the Chairman, National Salaries, Incomes and Wages Commission, Ekpo Nta, represented by the Deputy Director of Compensation, Chika Ochor, said the workshop would promote better understanding of the CPS and its benefits.

Nta insisted that pension provides financial security in old age, enabling retirees to maintain their standard of living, reduce poverty, and avoid dependence on families and government adding that the current administration had introduced far-reaching reforms in pension administration to ensure prompt and sustainable payment of retirees’ benefits.

In his remarks, the Director-General, National Orientation Agency (NOA), Lanre Issa-Onilu, commended PenCom and NSIWC for their collaboration in bridging knowledge gaps on the CPS and online enrolment processes.

He reaffirmed NOA’s commitment to promoting national values, policy awareness, security consciousness, and disaster preparedness.

Business

Banks Must Back Innovation, Not Just Big Corporates — Edun

Published

4 days ago

November 3, 2025

The Tide

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has called on Nigerian banks to channel more credit to young innovators and small businesses, saying the era of concentrating lending on big corporates must give way to inclusive, innovation-driven financing.

Edun made the call while speaking at the 2025 Fellowship Investiture of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos, where he reaffirmed the federal government’s commitment to sustaining ongoing reforms and expanding access to finance as key drivers of economic growth beyond four per cent.

Edun emphasised that while the reforms under President Bola Tinubu have begun to yield tangible progress since May 2023, inclusive growth remains critical to sustaining the recovery.

“We all know that monetary policy under Cardoso has stabilised the financial system in a most commendable way. Of course, it is a team effort, and those eye-watering interest rates have to be paid by the fiscal side. But the fight against inflation is one we all have to participate in,” he said.

The minister stressed the need for banks to broaden credit access and finance innovation-driven enterprises that can create jobs for young Nigerians.

“The finance and banking industry has more work to do because we must finance their ideas, deepen the capital and credit markets down to SMEs. They should not have to go to Silicon Valley,” he said.

The minister who described the private sector as the engine of growth, said the government’s reform agenda aims to create an enabling environment where businesses can thrive, access funding, and contribute meaningfully to job creation.

He commended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for maintaining monetary discipline under its current leadership, describing the tight policy stance as a necessary step to curb inflation, stabilise the financial system, and restore investor confidence.

Also speaking, Chairman of the Committee of Bank CEOs and Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Oliver Alawuba, commended the CBN and the Federal Ministry of Finance for their coordinated policies that have eased pressure on the foreign exchange market and restored investor confidence.

“We thank the Minister of Finance and the CBN Governor. We have seen the difference. A year ago, customers were asking for dollars; today, we are asking them if they need any. Thanks to the efforts of the coordinated economic team,” Alawuba said.

He urged newly inducted Fellows and Senior Members of the Institute to champion digital transformation, strengthen trust, and promote collaboration within the banking industry.

Business

FG Seeks Fresh $1b World Bank loan To Boost Jobs, Investment

Published

4 days ago

November 3, 2025

The Tide

The Federal Government has begun discussions with the World Bank for a new $1 billion loan under a programme designed to accelerate private investment, job creation, and economic diversification.

The facility, known as the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (P512892), is a Development Policy Financing (DPF) operation scheduled for World Bank Board consideration on December 16, 2025.

According to the Bank’s concept note , the financing would comprise $500m in International Development Association (IDA) credit and $500m in International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loan.

If approved, it would be the second-largest single loan Nigeria has received from the World Bank under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, following the $1.5 billion facility granted in June 2024 under the Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation (RESET) initiative.

The World Bank said the new programme aims to support Nigeria’s shift from short-term macroeconomic stabilisation to sustainable, private sector–led growth.

The loan would back reforms intended to expand access to credit and digital financial services, lower prices for households and firms, and boost productivity in key agricultural value chains.

“The proposed Development Policy Financing (DPF) supports Nigeria’s pivot from stabilization to inclusive growth and job creation. Structured as a two-tranche standalone operation of US$1.0 billion (US$500 million IDA credit and US$500 million IBRD loan), it seeks to catalyse private sector–led investment by expanding access to credit, deepening capital markets and digital services, easing inflationary pressures, and promoting export diversification,” the document read.

The document further stated that Nigeria’s private sector credit-to-GDP ratio stood at only 21.3 per cent in 2024, significantly below that of emerging-market peers, while capital markets remain shallow, with sovereign securities dominating the bond market.

To address these weaknesses, the DPF will support the implementation of the Investment and Securities Act 2025, operationalisation of credit-enhancement facilities, and introduction of a comprehensive Central Bank of Nigeria rulebook to strengthen risk-based regulation and consumer protection.

The operation also includes measures to deepen digital inclusion through the passage of the National Digital Economy and E-Governance Bill 2025, which will establish a legal framework for electronic transactions, authentication services, and digital records.

Beyond the financial and digital sectors, the programme targets reforms to lower production and living costs by tackling Nigeria’s restrictive trade regime. High tariffs and import bans have long driven up consumer prices and constrained competitiveness, particularly for manufacturers and farmers.

Under the proposed reforms, Nigeria would adopt AfCFTA tariff concessions, rationalise import restrictions, and simplify agricultural seed certification to increase the supply of high-quality varieties for maize, rice, and soybeans. The World Bank projects that these measures will help reduce food inflation, attract private investment, and enhance export potential.

The operation is part of a broader World Bank FY26 package that includes three complementary projects—Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs (FINCLUDE), Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth (BRIDGE), and Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth (AGROW)—all focused on expanding access to finance, strengthening institutions, and mobilising private capital.