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Google Shares Slide, Analysts Stay Upbeat

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Shares of Google Inc fell 8 percent after the Internet giant posted a rare quarterly earnings miss and said money paid by marketers for its search ads decreased for the first time in two years.

The search giant underperformed on both revenue and earnings, despite record U.S. online commerce during the holiday season, prompting several brokerages to cut their price targets on the stock.

Google shares were down $50.77 at $588.80 in late morning trade on Friday on the Nasdaq. They had touched a low of $584.81. It was the stock’s biggest percentage fall in 9 months.

About 5.2 million shares changes hands by 1120 ET, more than their daily average volume.

The broader Nasdaq composite index was down 0.25 percent.

Google executives blamed the decline in search ad rates on forex fluctuations and ad format changes but analysts wondered whether mobile advertising, which has lower rates,  played a more important role than the company admitted.

The fall in cost per click (CPC) had led to a barrage of questions from analysts during the post-earnings conference call on Thursday.

The market needs to shift expectations to paid click growth and lower its estimates for CPC, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

Google’s heavy investments in mobile and social network initiatives, to stave off competition from rivals Apple Inc and Facebook,  and its planned $12.5 billion acquisition of smartphone maker Motorola Mobility Holdings have also raised investors’ concerns.

Larry Page, who took over as CEO in April, said in July that the company was moving to put “more wood behind fewer arrows.”

Analysts said the company has seen growth in display advertising, its Android mobile platform and Google.

Google, its recently-launched social network,  has 90 million users now, up from 40 million three months ago.

SOLID CORE

Wall Street analysts called the selloff an overreaction; Barclays said it presents a buying opportunity.

“Don’t judge a book by its cover,” Goldman Sachs titled its research note on Google.

The company’s core results were solid as paid click growth accelerated by more than a third, margins improved, and display and mobile businesses performed well, analysts said.

The acceleration in paid clicks suggests that underlying demand for Google ads is quite healthy across devices, JP Morgan said, adding Google is best-positioned for the shift to new media.

Goldman Sachs analysts said, “We expect the growth in mobile to be 146 percent in 2012 and represent 15 percent of gross sales as we exit fourth-quarter of 2012.”

The company still has strong earnings power that will reappear during 2012, Canaccord Genuity said, reiterating its “buy” rating.

Barclays, Baird, Jefferies and JP Morgan also maintained their top ratings on the stock.

Meanwhile, the biggest tech Dow components, IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), and Intel (INTC) on Friday reported fourth quarter earnings results. Each member of this tech troika reported slight beats on somewhat weak revenue, particularly in the case of Microsoft. The performances could either be described as “vaguely encouraging” or “benignly disappointing,” depending largely on whether or not you personally own the stocks.

Nonetheless, IBM, MSFT and INTC seem cheap on the basis of earnings multiples. The question is whether or not cheap and bland is actually an investment thesis. According to David Garrity of GVA Research, relatively low variability in performance is going to be the theme that pays for investors in technology this year.

Calling relatively expensive Nasdaq names Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) the “best houses in bad neighborhoods,” Garrity doesn’t think that’s necessarily going to be a “recipe to drive stock prices higher.” Based on the reaction to Google’s earnings report after Garrity and I spoke, Mr. Market says it’s right not to pay up for “fast growth.”

Which brings us back to Intel and Microsoft, two names in my own portfolio. Though Intel “has not succeeded in stealing the field” for smartphone chips from Qualcomm (QCOM), Garrity says “the company is better positioned for a secular trend” than it’s being given credit for. It’s a view strengthened by Intel’s decision to boost spending by 16% to, at the minimum, stanch the bleeding in market-share loss.

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CBN Boss Assures On Inflation Decrease

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Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, has said members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would do whatever is necessary to check the country’s persistent inflation.
The CBN’s hawkish stance on inflation had become obvious from the first MPC meeting held in February, when the committee raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points to 22.75 per cent, from 18.75 per cent. It has since been raised to 24.75 per cent.
The CBN boss, who stated this in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, said this is an indication that interest rates would stay high for as long as necessary to tame inflation.
He told the Financial Times that there was “every indication” that the MPC would “do whatever is necessary” to keep soaring inflation in check.
“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down”, Cardoso said.
Meanwhile, ahead of the next MPC meeting scheduled to hold on May 20-21, there are projections of a rate hike from the committee, even as inflation is projected to go higher.
Analysts at Meristem Securities projected an uptick in the headline inflation for April to 34.43 per cent year-on-year (vs. 33.20 per cent YoY reported in March 2024).
Despite the current CBN’s hawkish stance, Cardoso said he hoped that high rates would not be for too long and discourage investment and production.
Noting that raising rates had been essential, he said, “Hiking interest rates has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate. It’s not a zero-sum game. You lose on one side, you get on the other”.
On fluctuations in the naira in recent times, Cardoso said investors, who were likely to exit the economy in response to currency fluctuations were now more comfortable with the market.
Cardoso said further that the apex bank was going to return to orthodox monetary policies.
“Let’s face it: for a long period of time, the CBN did not embrace orthodox monetary policies. We want to go back to using an orthodox method, and it will take us to where we want to go”, he said.

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IMF tells FG To Stop Electricity Subsidy

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called in Nigeria’s Federal Government to remove what it called implicit fuel and electricity subsidies.
This was contained in a recent report published by the IMF, in which it said the subsidies will take a whooping three per cent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 as against one per cent in 2023.
In the report, the IMF commended the Federal Government for phasing out “costly and regressive energy subsidies”, among others.
It added that this was “critical to creating fiscal space for development spending and strengthening social protection while maintaining debt sustainability”.
Recall that President Bola Tinubu’s administration removed fuel subsidies during his inauguration on May 29, 2023.
Commenting of the fuel subsidy removal, IMF noted that “adequate compensatory measures for the poor were not scaled up promptly and subsequently paused over corruption concerns. Capping pump prices below cost reintroduced implicit subsidies by end-2023 to help Nigerians cope with high inflation and exchange rate depreciation”.
IMF also acknowledged that the price of electricity had tripled for high-use premium consumers on Band A feeders, 15 per cent of the 12 million customers who account for 40 per cent of electricity usage.
Following Nigerians’ agitation for the reversal of the Band A tariff from N206.80 per kilowatt-hour to N68, IMF said “the tariff adjustment will help reduce expenditure on subsidies by 0.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product, while continuing to provide relief to the poor, particularly in rural areas”.
It continued that “once the safety net has been scaled up and inflation subsides, the government should tackle implicit fuel and electricity subsidies”.
The organisation also warned that “With pump prices and tariffs below cost-recovery, implicit subsidy costs could increase to 3 per cent of GDP in 2024 from 1 per cent in 2023. These subsidies are costly and poorly targeted, with higher income groups benefiting more than the vulnerable.
“As inflation subsides and support for the vulnerable is ramped up, costly and untargeted fuel and electricity subsidies should be removed, while, e.g., retaining a lifeline tariff”.
IMF projected that the implicit fuel subsidy could gulp as high as N8.4tn in 2024 from N1.85tn in 2023, N4.4tn in 2022, N1.86tn in 2021 and N89bn in 2020.
The electricity subsidy being paid to customers under Band B, C, D, and E was projected to stand at N540bn by the end of 2024.
The Tide’s source reports that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, have repeatedly debunked claims that the Federal Government was paying fuel subsidies through the back door.
The IMF’s call for the removal of electricity subsidy is coming amid protests from Nigerians who are calling on the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, to return the Band A tariff to the status quo.
For this purpose, the organised labour has threatened to stage a protest on Monday if Adelabu fails to heed their calls.

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PoS Operators Take CAC To Court

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In response to the directive by the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) for Point of Sales (PoS) operators to register with it, the body, the “Association of Mobile Money and Bank Agents in Nigeria (AMMBAN)” says it has concluded plans to head to court to address the legality of the directive.
President of the association, Fasasi Sarafadeen, faulted the directive mandating PoS operators to register with the CAC, saying the move had forced the association to go to court to seek a redress.
Sarafadeen said the directive from the CAC violated the provision of the Companies and Allied Matters Act, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004, which “explicitly states that the commission has no jurisdiction over individuals not operating as a company”.
“According to section 863(1) of the Companies and Allied Matters Act, 2004, the order to enforce CAC directive on individual PoS agents operating under their name is wrong and will be challenged, as it contravenes the Companies and Allied Matters Act, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004, which explicitly states that CAC has no jurisdiction over individuals not operating as a company.
“We shall challenge it legally. The court will have to intervene in the interpretation of the quoted section of the CAMA if individuals operating as a sub-agent (likened to a bank branch) must register with CAC.
“CBN is right, no issue, the memo is clear, it only applies to non-individuals, unlike the Corporate Affairs Commission who generalised. We are in talks with the lawyer representing the association already, and a league of human rights lawyers whom we are not disclosing who they are for now”, he said.
Explaining the categories, he stated that there were two categories of Point-of-Sale agents.
“CAMA only mandates registration of individuals operating as a company. There are two categories of POS agents: individuals and non-individuals. Individual agents operate under their names, such as Musa Caroline or Abubakar Audu, and are typically profiled with financial institutions under their names.
“Non-individual agents, on the other hand, operate under registered or unregistered business names, such as Wale Ventures or Johnson Enterprises.
“It is this second category of agents that the Corporate Affairs Commission can enforce the law on, as they are required to register their business names by the law”, Sarafadeen explained.
He noted that sub-agents are independent branches of a company already registered with the Corporate Affairs Commission.
“Sub agents are not carrying out as an independent company but branches of a company. For example, while commercial banks operate with bank branches across the country, Fintechs (MMO, super agents, and co) operate with a network of sub-agents.
“It is, therefore, lack of knowledge of the workings in a Fintech/agent banking industry to be tagging sub-agents as illegal”, he added.
According to the AMMBAN boss, the CAC should focus its efforts on addressing the high failure rate of registered businesses in Nigeria, rather than enforcing regulations on individual POS agents operating under their names.
“The Corporate Affairs Commission should prioritise addressing the alarming failure rate of registered businesses in Nigeria, rather than targeting sub-agents. With over 4.9 million businesses registered, 50 per cent of which fail every five years, this should be the focus.
“In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s memo specifically addressed non-individual agents, not individual sub-agents, and CAC’s threat to harass sub-agents is unwarranted and excessive”, he added.
He noted that the clampdown on agent banking in the name of CAC registration was not in line with President Bola Tinubu’s renewed Hope agenda, which prioritises job creation and opposes policies that cause unemployment.
“We are aware that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not approved of any policy that will cause unemployment, noting that agent banking has created over 1.9 million jobs in the last few years. Clampdown in the name of CAC registration is not in line with the renewed Hope agenda of Mr. President and we are appealing to Mr. President, the Senate, and the House of reps to intervene as they did for the anti-masses policy of cyber security levy.
“CAC should be concerned about how 50 per cent of registered businesses in Nigeria fail within the first few years, resulting in growing unemployment year-on-year. Rather than embarking on policies that will eradicate entrepreneurs, escalate unemployment, and reverse the gains of financial inclusion in Nigeria”, he stated.
The Federal Government through the Corporate Affairs Commission had issued a two-month registration deadline for Point of Sales companies, to register their agents, merchants, and individuals with the commission in line with legal requirements and the directives of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The agreement was reached during a meeting between Fintechs and the Registrar-General CAC, Hussaini Ishaq Magaji, in Abuja.
CAC said the move would curb kidnapping and payment of ransoms.
According to the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System, there are over 1.9 million PoS terminals deployed by merchants and individuals nationwide.
This new directive came against the backdrop of frequent fraud incidents involving POS terminals and plans to stop trading in cryptocurrency or any virtual currency by the Central Bank of Nigeria. POS terminals accounted for 26.37 per cent of fraud incidents in 2023, according to a fraud report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System Plc.
Last week, the CBN stopped major fintech firms like Kuda, Opay, PalmPay, and Moniepoint from onboarding new customers and instructed the companies to warn their customers against trading in cryptocurrency or any virtual currency on their apps, threatening to block any accounts found engaging in such activities.
The CBN’s move was linked to an ongoing audit of the Know-Your-Customer process of the fintechs, which have been under scrutiny in recent months over concerns around money laundering and terrorism financing.
Before the CBN’s directive, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission had obtained a court order to freeze at least 1,146 bank accounts owned by various individuals and companies allegedly involved in illegal foreign exchange transactions.

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