Business
N’D Dev: Can Impact Assessment Help?
On the back cover of Dr. Bristol-Alagbariya’s book, Participation in Petroleum Development, I say:
The potential of impact assessment for bringing “equity, prosperity, and tranquility” to the Niger Delta, especially by means of community participation, offers a promising approach to achieving sustainable development in that volatile yet vital part of the world.
Approaches are not arrivals, however. The precondition for this or any other initiative to succeed depends in the first instance on peaceful resolution of the violent confrontation that has afflicted the region and nation with growing intensity over the past five years. Its roots go much deeper, of course, to the disparity and inequity that have marked and marred the region since oil development began in 1956.
The Primacy of Politics
It was here in Abuja, four and a half years ago, in a meeting at the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, that it occurred to me: “Water resources development is one-tenth technical and nine-tenths political.”
I repeated that insight at an International Water Association conference last month in Seoul, Korea, and asked the audience of mainly technical people if that were about the right fraction. No one disagreed.
Earlier this month I repeated it again, this time in Melbourne, Australia, in discussions with one of the largest mining companies in the world, and again there was no disagreement. In fact, I have yet to meet anyone who disagrees with that formulation.
If this is so, then it follows that “to get the water resources right, you have to get the politics right.” What that might mean naturally depends on what is understood as “politics.” Two leading but contending versions are the coercion and consensus views.
The former is represented by Harold W. Lasswell, who defined “politics” as “who get what, where, when, and how.” In fact, identifying winners and losers is a fair description of the methodology of impact assessment. In contrast, David C. McClelland offers a consensual definition of politics, one more congenial to the author’s: politics is “the authoritative allocation of values.”
Whatever definition we adopt, getting the politics right means building the institutional capacity for good governance. The United Nations Development Programme have postulated five principles for achieving this:
The operative terms here all relate closely to the concept of public or popular or people’s participation, the central theme of the book under discussion. Its centrality in the process of social change is embodied in Herbert Simon’s “Participation Hypothesis”:
“ … Significant changes in human behavior can be brought about rapidly only if the persons who are expected to change, participate in deciding what the change shall be and how it shall be made.” (from “Recent Advances in Organization Theory” (1955: p. 206).
Enter Impact Assessment’
We can now assert that the field of Impact assessment represents both an instrument of governance (see Ahmed and Sanchez-Triana 2008) and an opportunity for participation. It is therefore not surprising to find the author with affiliations in both fields. “Impact assessment” can be formally defined as:
. .. a process for anticipating and evaluating the difference between existing and future conditions with and without the intervention of natural events or social actions, intended or unintended.
What it is good for is contained in this vision/mission statement: the goal of impact assessment is to:
… develop local and global capacity to anticipate, plan, and manage the consequences of change so as to enhance the quality of life for all.
The general methodology of impact assessment is comprised in ten steps, referred to here as the “Main Pattern” schema since it appears to represent a general consensus among impact assessment practitioners and aims at methodological completeness. The ten steps comprising an assessment cycle are:
Scoping
Problem Identification
Formulation of Alternatives
Profiling
Projection
Analysis of Alternatives
Evaluation
Mitigation
Monitoring
Management
Specific methods and techniques and data sets and series are associated with analytic operations at each step. Opportunities for participation are likewise present at every step, especially scoping, problem identification, and formulation of alternatives on the front end and evaluation, monitoring, and management on the back.
In short, impact assessment seeks the (fore) knowledge of consequences, anticipating unanticipated consequences by exercising the foresight provision. Along with this goes an ethic of consequences, emphasizing the responsibility of impact assessment practitioners in relation to their knowledge and its application.
Two phrase can be applied in characterising the field of impact assessment: “comprehensive and integrated” in its coverage of impact levels, scales, schedules, and sectors, and “proactive and creative” in its anticipatory research, design, and policy applications. In this it supports futurist Alvin Toffler’s concept of “anticipatory democracy,” putting people in charge of their own desirable futures. In the present context, it is convergent with the author’s view of “environmental democracy.”
We believe that application of the philosophy and methodology of impact assessment can and will serve to facilitate bringing “equity, prosperity, and tranquility” to the Niger Delta region and to the nation and beyond. This book marks an important advance toward that end.
Prof. C. P. Wolf of the Social Impact Assessment Centre, New York and also co-founder and Past President International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA), Fargo, USA presented this paper at the launching of the book “Participation in Petroleum Development: Towards Sustainable Community Development in the Niger Delta” written by Aseme-Alabo Edard T. Bristol-Alagbariya at Transcorp Hilton, Abuja, recently.
Prof. C. P. Wolf
“Payment of tuition fees for undergraduate/postgraduate studies shall be subject to a maximum limit of $25,000.00 per semester,” the Manual states.
The expansion of international card limits also reflects growing confidence among lenders that foreign exchange liquidity has improved enough to support retail dollar transactions.
Speaking recently at the BusinessDay 14th Annual CEO Forum in Lagos, CBN Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the CBN said buying and selling activities now increasingly determine outcomes in the foreign exchange market, unlike in the past when market participants relied heavily on routine Central Bank interventions.
According to Cardoso, Nigeria’s net foreign exchange reserves have risen from just over $3 billion at the start of the reform programme to more than $40 billion, while gross reserves have climbed to about $52 billion, providing stronger confidence for investors and enabling the Central Bank to reserve interventions for periods of market stress rather than day-to-day liquidity management.
The restoration and expansion of international naira card spending limits are increasingly being seen as one of the clearest signs that the benefits of the CBN’s foreign exchange reforms are beginning to reach households, students and businesses making legitimate cross-border payments.
The Secretary-General and Chief Executive Officer, WEC, Dr Angela Wilkinson, disclosed this in a statement, last Thursday.
“Nigeria’s participation comes at a pivotal time as the country seeks to expand energy access, strengthen energy security, accelerate gas development and mobilise the capital required for industrialisation and sustainable economic growth.
“WEC Nigeria will convene leaders from across the energy ecosystem, apply the WEC’s globally recognised Energy Trilemma framework to Nigeria’s unique context, and promote evidence-based dialogue, practical collaboration and informed policymaking.
“It will also ensure that Nigerian and broader African perspectives contribute meaningfully to global energy conversations,” she said.
Wilkinson expressed confidence that Nigeria would play a significant leadership role at the World Energy Congress scheduled for Riyadh in April 2027 and beyond.
The statement also quoted the Chairman of WEC Nigeria, Isa, as describing the country’s participation as an opportunity to deepen national and African leadership within the global energy community through practical solutions tailored to regional development priorities.
He said the platform would promote collaboration across sectors and attract sustainable investments into Nigeria’s energy sector.
The Chief Executive Officer of WEC Nigeria, Wunti, was quoted in the statement as saying that the council would connect leadership, evidence and investment to build a secure, affordable and sustainable energy system.
“This system will be capable of driving economic growth and shared prosperity.”
According to him, the platform will also connect Nigerian institutions and businesses with international knowledge, technology, partnerships and investment opportunities through the World Energy Council’s global network.
Recall that WEC, founded in 1923, is the world’s oldest independent and impartial community of energy leaders and practitioners, advancing informed, collaborative and practical action across the global energy system.
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