Oil & Energy

Budget: ‘2.3mpbd, $60 Oil Benchmark, Not Realistic’

Published

7 years ago

December 24, 2018

An energy expert, Mr Bank-Anthony Okoroafor, says the projected 2.3 million barrel of crude oil production per day and 60 dollar oil benchmark in the 2019 budget is not realistic.
Okoroafor in an interview with our correspondent in Abuja, last Sunday, said the projection does not follow the uncertainties in the global oil market.
“Production of 2.3 mbpd projection for 2019 may not be realistic owing to OPEC’s plan to cut production in order to shore up prices and growing crude inventory and excess supply verse demand.
“The benchmark price of 60 dollar used for the budget is not smart based on all the uncertainties and volatility surrounding the price of oil and surplus production,’’ he said.
According to him, the reality today is 59 dollar per barrel.
He added that the global crude oil price would average 61 dollar a barrel in 2019 according to the short- term energy outlook by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“The estimate is 11 dollar per barrel lower than the EIA prediction just a month ago.
“The forecast dropped after oil prices dipped below 50 dollar a barrel in November, the average for the month was 65 dollars.
“They believed higher U.S. supplies will flood the market at the same time slowing global growth and will cut into demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia had also produced oil at record levels.
“On December 7, OPEC agreed to cut 1.2 million barrel per day from the October levels. Members will cut 800,000 barrels per day and allies will cut 400,000 bpd. Cuts will continue for six months.
“OPEC’s goal is to return prices to 70 dollars a barrel by early 2019. Will this happen based on the volatility of oil prices today? Only time will tell,’’ he said
Okoroafor further stressed that government must consider all of the uncertainties in the global market noting that the volatility of oil prices would continue in 2019.
He added that the U.S. average daily production would rise to a record level of 12.1 million barrels per day in 2019 from 9.4 mbpd in 2017 and 10.9 mbpd in 2018.
He said that the U.S. shale producers became effective that they were profitable at 30 dollars per barrel adding that production from West Texas alone would increase by two million bpd in 2019.
“The oil wells in Gulf cannot stop producing even at low oil prices. OPEC has not been willing to cut output enough to rebase the oil price.
“Members do not want to lose market share to U.S. companies.
“Increased U.S. production in 2019 means OPEC will no longer have the clout to control prices. Finally global demand for oil will drop in 2019 as China which consumes 12 per cent of the global oil production has slowed down”, he said.

Oil & Energy

Resource Wars Are Here and Oil Is the First Casualty

Published

7 days ago

March 30, 2026

The Tide

In just over a year, the world saw several instances of a choked supply of commodities indispensable for today’s economies and military capabilities.

From China’s restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals supply to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, policymakers and analysts began to realize that the control of oil, critical minerals, rare earths, and magnets is as important as building and maintaining stockpiles of advanced weapons. It also became clear that without these resources, defense and military capabilities could be weakened. The actual arms race goes hand in hand with the new battle for the resources that underpin economic, manufacturing, and advanced military development.

“Great-power competition has returned to basics: who controls the physical resources that modern economies and militaries run on,” Alice Gower, a partner at London-based political-risk advisory firm Azure Strategy, told the Wall Street Journal.

“Energy, critical minerals and industrial capacity are leverage, not just economic assets,” Gower added.

The war in the Middle East and the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz laid bare the reality of choked energy supply. The world’s most vital oil and LNG chokepoint, through which 20% of daily global trade flowed before the Iran war, has been essentially closed for most tanker traffic for more than three weeks.

The massive supply shock, the worst disruption in the oil market in history, showed that the world is dependent on energy resources, and that geography and actual physical supply matter. With so much oil and gas stranded in the Middle East, oil prices spiked to above $100 per barrel, natural gas prices in Europe doubled, and Asian spot LNG prices hit multi-year highs.

The precarious situation in the Middle East is reverberating across Asia, the region most dependent on oil and LNG supply from the Persian Gulf. Asian refiners pay sky-high premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude, many are considering cutting or have already cut processing rates, and countries have started to enact fuel-preserving measures, from four-day work weeks to bans on fuel exports.

In Europe, the gas refilling season will be the toughest yet, as Asia is outbidding Europe for spot LNG supply after Qatar’s LNG is effectively sidelined and full capacity may not return for up to five years following Iranian missile attacks last week.

Even the ‘energy independent’ United States, the world’s top oil producer, is not independent when it comes to global supply shocks of such magnitude.

The national average price of gasoline is approaching $4 per gallon nationwide, more than $1 a gallon compared to a month ago, before the start of the war.

Oil is a global resource, traded on a global market, and prices reflect fundamentals, although they have been driven by hectic trading activity on geopolitics in recent weeks. But the fundamentals show that there is no resource available to plug the gap that has opened in Middle Eastern supply. Producers are slashing output due to a lack of storage capacity, which further delays a rapid recovery in supply when this mess ends.

All this goes to show that whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz has enormous leverage on inflicting global economic pain.

While the world is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the race for rare earths and critical minerals continues, with the U.S. and Western countries scrambling to dent China’s dominance.

Since China restricted exports of rare earth elements early in 2025, Western countries have raced to create mine-to-magnet supply chains to reduce dependence on Chinese supply in the key military and automotive industries.

China holds a 59% share of the mining of rare earths, 91% in refining, and a whopping 94% in magnet manufacturing, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.

The U.S. has responded by taking stakes in minerals mining companies, the launch of a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, known as Project Vault, and is leading efforts to break the Chinese stronghold on the pricing of these minerals critical for the defense and auto industries and national security.

Chinese dominance could be eroded, but it would take years.

Still, rising neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) supply from countries like the U.S. and Australia is set to reduce China’s market share to 69% by 2030 from 90% in 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) said in new research this month.

“We’re seeing a surge in rare-earth investment as modern technologies demand more critical materials,” said Jack Baxter, Global Metals & Mining Analyst at BI and co-author of the report.

“That said, we anticipate a significant shortfall in supply due to trade uncertainties, with lead times as long as 10 years to get new material out of the ground,” Baxter added.

“This will give pricing power to the few producers that currently are able to supply critical materials outside of China, fracturing the globalized market.”

Amid fractured markets and high geopolitical uncertainty, one thing is certain – the next arms race, alongside the actual arms race, will be for control of key resources such as oil and critical minerals.

By Tsvetana Paraskova

Oil & Energy

Transcorp Energy, Renewvia Partner On Renewable Energy Gap

Published

7 days ago

March 30, 2026

The Tide

Transcorp Energy Limited and Renewvia Solar Nigeria Limited have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly develop renewable energy projects across Nigeria.

The move is aimed at addressing the persistent power deficit that has crumble businesses in the nation.

The agreement also outlines a longer-term plan to expand operations across Africa, positioning both firms to tap into growing demand for clean and reliable electricity.

The partnership would target commercial, industrial and residential consumers, as well as underserved communities, through a mix of off-grid and grid-connected energy solutions.

Beyond electricity provision, the collaboration would explore the aggregation and monetisation of Renewable Energy Credits generated from the projects, adding a commercial layer to the clean energy rollout.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Transcorp Energy, Chris Ezeafulukwe, said the initiative aligns with the company’s broader strategy to expand access to sustainable power.

He noted that combining grid and decentralised energy systems would enable the company to deliver reliable electricity directly to end-users across different segments of the economy.

Chief Executive Officer of Renewvia, Trey Jarrard, described Nigeria as a critical market for the company’s African ambitions.

According to him, the partnership provides a platform to scale operations rapidly by leveraging established infrastructure and local expertise, while delivering cost-effective and resilient energy solutions.

Both companies said the agreement lays the foundation for a scalable pan-African renewable energy business, capable of supporting diverse markets and accelerating the continent’s transition to cleaner power sources.

The collaboration comes amid increasing pressure on governments and private sector players to deploy sustainable energy solutions to bridge electricity gaps, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and support economic growth across Africa.

Oil & Energy

IYC Tasks Niger Delta Governors On Oil Field Bidding ….Decries Exclusion of Host Communities

Published

7 days ago

March 30, 2026

The Tide

The Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) Worldwide has raised concerns over the continued exclusion of host communities from the governance of oil resources, urging Niger Delta governors to take decisive steps by bidding for oil blocs and marginal fields.

The council warned that failure to act would allow external interests to continue dominating the region’s oil assets, despite their location within host communities.

Secretary-General of the council, Maobuye Nangi-Obu, started this at the stakeholders’ meeting organised by the Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited , with participants drawn from Rivers, Abia and Imo States, in Port Harcourt, recently.

“It is time for state governments in the Niger Delta, especially Rivers State, to form oil companies that can bid for marginal fields within their territories”, he said.

Nangi-Obu expressed concern over the reported listing of about 25 marginal oil fields for allocation, noting that many were located in host communities but allegedly being assigned to non-indigenes.

In his words “They sit in Abuja and decide what happens in our region, yet we are not part of the oil governance of our own resources”.

He explained that marginal fields, though considered uneconomical by major oil firms, remain viable for indigenous operators, adding that their allocation had continued to fuel grievances in the Niger Delta.

The IYC scribe also warned of the implications of directional drilling, describing it as a growing threat to host communities.

“There could be oil wells in your community, and somebody elsewhere could be drilling that oil without your knowledge,” he cautioned.

On environmental concerns, Nangi-Obu condemned the persistent gas flaring in the region, blaming both international and local operators for failing to invest in gas processing infrastructure.

He, however, commended Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited for its engagement with host communities.

“Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited is doing the right thing by engaging stakeholders. Not all companies are doing what they are doing,” he stated.

Traditional rulers at the meeting, further acknowledged improvements linked to the company’s activities in their areas.

The Eze Ekpeye-Logbo, King Kevin Anugwo, represented by Dr Patricia Ogbonnaya, noted that “aquatic life that disappeared due to pollution is gradually returning,” attributing the development to improved environmental conditions.

Similarly, Chairman of the K-Dere Council of Chiefs, Chief Batom Mitee, said, “There is now peace in our community,” stressing, increased oil production must translate into tangible benefits for host communities.

By: King Onunwor