Connect with us

Business

Nigeria Inflation Report and Analysis For June 2013

Published

on

Headline Inflation dropped to 8.4% year-on-year in June 2013, 60 basis points lower than 9.0% in May on ‘base effects’ from last year. The Core Inflation Index rose by 5.4% year-on-year in June, down from 6.2% in May, extending its downward trend thus far this year whilst the Composite Food Index rose 9.7% in June, up from 9.3% in May, on lower food supplies inventory, according the National Bureau of Statistics.
Inflation in the States: Headline Inflation rates lower than the National rate (8.4%) were recorded in 22 states (including the FCT) whilst Inflation rates in 15 states were higher than the national rate.
Of the 3 states housing seaports, where lower prices are expected as hinterland transport costs do not feature in prices, only Lagos State recorded single-digit inflation rate (4.27%), Rivers and Cross River States recorded Inflation rates of 20.8% and 19.2% in June respectively. Ironically, Food inflation in Benue State, the famed Food Basket of the Nation, was 35.08%.
INFLATION FIGURES; ITS IMPLICATIONS
a. Policy
With June’s Headline Inflation rate at 8.4%, inflation for the first half of the year settled in single digit, averaging 8.9%. However, risk factors such as oil revenue shortfalls as production fails to match projections, and the recent slide in external reserves make the Naira cause for serious concern and therefore pose upside risks to inflation. With the Real Effective Exchange Rate showing that the Naira is already overvalued*, adjusting the exchange rate band is a probable option for the CBN. The other viable alternative is to raise rates, as maintaining Naira at current level is seemingly costly.
b. Fixed Income Markets
Driven by aggressive withdrawal of offshore investors’ interest, average yields on actively traded FGN bonds increased in June across all maturities. It appears that the Nigerian bond market has dissociated itself from inflation dynamics lately, such that yields are responding to other demand and supply factors. The correlation between inflation and yields so far this year has been negative. This dissonancement makes it unlikely that single digit inflation expectation will readily transmit to the market.
c. Equities Markets
The Nigerian Equities market took a hit in June, with its year-to-date return at the end of the month (and consequently of the first half of the year) at 28.8%, as against 34.6% at the end of May. The real return on Equity (return after providing for inflation) as of the same date is 24.34% year-to-date, down from 30.85% at the end of May. Notwithstanding the lull in equities markets in June, its real returns dwarf real yields on currently trading FGN bonds and this should serve to stimulate greater appetite for equities, but bonds are still viable for diversification.
d. Companies
The Q2 corporate performance and earnings release season has yet to kick in, making commentary on the real values of turnover, assets and other relevant corporate ratios impossible at this point. However, Headline Inflation has remained in single-digit territory for the entire first half of the year; this suggests a slowdown in the value erosion of consumers’ resources. Also, Fast Moving Consumer Goods Companies (FMCGs), whose raw materials and inputs feature in the inflation basket and for which inflation significantly impacts cost of production, are getting a good deal on Inflation outcomes so far this year as well as the positive outlook for the second half.
INFLATION OUTLOOK
Inflation averaged single digit in H1 2013, and the outlook for H2 suggests inflation will be benign, but with possible shocks as the year winds up. We expect July 2013 inflation at 8.8%. Inflation during the second half of the year is expected to hover around high single digit. Pressure on Naira has seen the USD/NGN exchange rate remain outside the upper band (NGN160/US$) in markets outside the Official, and depending on the intervention by the CBN, this may continue till the end of the year, with implication for prices, particularly imported inflation. We also expect prices to be impacted by the expansionary fiscal stance of the government. There, however, is a one-month lag in the transmission of exchange rate, and government spending changes to prices.

Continue Reading

Business

Eazipay  Offers Zero-Interest Loans To  150,000 SMEs, Employees

Published

on

With a mission to ignite growth, encourage business continuity and help businesses and employees thrive, Eazipay is gearing up to propel the dreams of 150,000 SMEs and employees to new heights through her relief fund.
Gone are the days of financial constraints and stifled dreams. With Eazipay’s support, SMEs and employees alike can bid farewell to limitations and embrace a world of endless possibilities.
Whether it’s start up,  business expansion or personal development, Eazipay is here to make dreams come true.
The mind-blowing initiative, which  kicked off this month, would end in December, and will also offer a range of perks and benefits designed to put a smile on the faces of SMEs and employees alike.
From exclusive discounts to various advisory services and beyond, Eazipay is committed to spreading happiness and creating lasting impact in people’s lives and to the growth of businesses.
The technology company which offers products and services that range from payroll management to IT/Device management and assessments, “Eazipay isn’t just providing financial support but also unleashing a wave of growth and prosperity for SMEs and employees across the nation.
“Interested businesses and individuals can take part in this initiative directly from the Eazipay website: www.myeazipay.com”.

Continue Reading

Business

SMEs Critical For Sustainable Dev – Commissioner

Published

on

The Commissioner of Finance, Lagos State, Abayomi Oluyomi, has described Small and medium Enterprises (SMEs) as a critical engine for sustainable development in any economy.
He said this recently at the 10th anniversary of the Alert Group Microfinance Bank and the opening of their new head office in Lagos.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, SMEs accounted for about 50 per cent of Nigeria’s gross.
He commended the positive impact of the Alert MFB as it empowers SMEs in the State.
“Alert MFB in the past 10 years has been at the forefront of empowering SMEs in Lagos State, disbursing over N30bn in loans to over 30,000 individuals having small to medium businesses over that period, which is quite remarkable”, he said.
Speaking, the Group Managing Director of Alert Group, Dr Kazeem Olanrewaju, revealed that the financial institution commenced business in 2013 as a microfinance bank.
“We started this journey in 2013 and it has been expanding. Today, they have about 10 branches across Lagos. They have supported well over 30,000 clients and have disbursed over N30bn.
“The company has been profitable since the second year. Looking at the market and the available opportunity, the Alert MFB board decided to come together to establish a Microfinance Institute (MFI), which is the Auto Bucks Lenders”, Dr. Olanrewaju said.
The GMD further stated that the company was focused more on supporting businesses and small and medium enterprises.
“The loan to support business represents over 98 per cent. The consumer loans you will see are the ones given to entrepreneurs. So, the area of focus of Alert MFB and Auto Bucks Lenders is to support businesses across the country.
“With the establishment of Auto Bucks Lenders, we have the opportunity to also do business outside Lagos. So, presently, we have offices in Ogun State and Oyo State. We intend to go to every part of Nigeria to support what we are doing”, he declared.

Continue Reading

Business

Retailers Explain Price Drop In  Cement Cost

Published

on

The cement market, in the last couple of weeks, has seen a significant turnaround with prices tumbling from between N10,000 and N15,000 per 50kg bag to between N7,000 and N8,000.
The sudden rise in the prices of cement and other major building materials in February this year upsets  the construction industry, especially in real estate, where many developers were forced to abandon building sites.
A recent market survey conducted by The Tide’s source in different locations across the country confirmed a price drop, ranging between N7,000 and N7,500 per bag, though BUA cement is selling for N7,500 to N7,800 per 50kg bag, depending on location.
Both entrepreneurs and major distributors who were interviewed,  explained that the price drop is due to low demand and government’s intervention.
At the peak of the price hike, the Federal Government called a meeting with major producers where it was agreed that a bag of cement should be between for N7,000 to N8,000, depending on location.
But the producers did not comply with this agreement immediately, followin which “Nigerians stopped demanding for cement; many project sites were abandoned as developers sat back and waited for the prices to come down.
“So, what has happened is an inter-play of demand and supply with price responding, which is Economics at work”, Collins Okpala, a cement dealer, told the source in Abuja.
In the Nyanya area of the Federal Capital Territory, a 50-kg bag of Dangote cement now sells for between N7,000 and N7,500, while BUA cement sells for between N8,500 and N9,500, down from between N11,000 and N12,000 respectively.
In Lagos, the product has seen significant price drop too. In Ojo area of the state, Sebastin Ovie, a dealer, told our reporter that what has happened is a crash from the January price, attributing the crash to low demand and stronger naira.
“The current price of the product is between N7,000 and N7,500 per 50kg bag, depending on the brand. This is a significant drop from the average of N12,000 which most dealers were selling in February and March”, he said.
A dealer in Agege area of the state who identified himself as Taofik Olateju, told the source that sales are picking up due to the drop in price.
He recalled that Nigerians at a point stopped buying due to the high price of the product at N15,000 per bag.
“I am sure most dealers ran at a loss then because we had mainly old stocks which we wanted to offload quickly”, he said, confirming that the product sells for between N7,500 and N8,000, depending on the brand and the demand for the brand.
Continuing, Olateju noted that “because the naira is now doing well against the dollar, it will be unreasonable for manufacturers to continue to sell the product at the old prices. I also believe that the federal government’s intervention and the threat to license more importers may have worked, leading to the reduction in price”.
In Enugu, the source reports that the product sells for between N7,200 and N7,500 depending on the brand and location.
“This is a city where the price of a 50kg bag went for as high as N12,000 and N13,000 in some cases in February and March”, Samuel Chikwendu said.
He added that the prices of other building materials, especially iron rods, have also dropped considerably which is why, he said, activities are picking up again at construction sites.
The story is slightly different in Owerri, the capital of Imo State, where Innocent Okonkwo told the source that low demand was also driving the price drop, adding that a 50kg bag was selling for N9,000 on the average in the state.
Sundry market observers are optimistic of further price reductions, but they remain cautious as manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers continue to play critical roles in setting prices for end-users.
They lamented, however, that despite Nigeria’s status as one of the largest producers of cement in Africa, the price of the product continues to rise, particularly in the face of high inflation impacting the building materials market generally.
Okpala in Abuja highlighted the variations arising from direct sourcing from manufacturers versus procurement through dealers, with traders holding old stocks selling products at prices ranging from N8,500, N8,300 to N8,000 per bag.
Lucy Nwachukwu, another dealer in Abuja, said the significance of  procurement volume in determining cement costs, noting that stability in prices has been observed over the past month, with the product retailing for between N7,000 and N7,800 depending on the brand.
In Port Harcourt also, a customer, Daniel Etteobong Effiong, said the price goes between N7500 to N8500, depending on the brand and the location one is buying from.

Continue Reading

Trending