Connect with us

Oil & Energy

‘Why Europe’s Dependence On US LNG Is Risky’

Published

on

In the current year, the United States boasts status as the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter as deliveries to both Europe, in the throes of a severe energy crisis, and Asia surge.
So far in 2022, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG or roughly 4 Bcf/d, to energy-starved buyers in Europe and Asia.
Europe’s desperate attempt to rid itself of Russian gas became even more urgent this week, as Moscow announced that flows through Nord Stream 1 to Germany would remain cut off until the West lifted sanctions.
That desperation has resulted in Europe displacing Asia as the top destination for U.S. LNG. In fact, Europe now receives 65% of total U.S. LNG exports.
But there are growing concerns that trading one dependency for another carries another kind of risk: Putting all your eggs in the U.S. LNG basket means banking on Mother Nature.
U.S. LNG supplies might not be vulnerable to Russia, but they are vulnerable to extreme weather and harrowing hurricane seasons that disrupt output and exports. Europe cannot afford any more disruptions.
Vulnerability in the Gulf of Mexico
The bulk of LNG export facilities in the United States, including proposed facilities, are housed along the Gulf Coast, and much of the gas that feeds those facilities comes from nearby inland reserves, from New Mexico and Texas to Louisiana, and beyond.
This is a region prone to hurricanes, meaning that when hurricanes come roaring inbound, everything from liquefaction to shipping and extraction to processing is at risk of disruption. It has happened before, and recently.
In recent years, multiple hurricanes have resulted in varying degrees of disruption for the LNG market, with impacts stretching across the supply chain from brief outages to long layoffs of processing and shipping.
Hurricane Laura in 2020 resulted in a two-week disruption at the Sabine Pass LNG export facility and well over a month at Cameron LNG.
Last year, Hurricane Ida resulted in a major and long-lasting curtailment of offshore gas production.
This year, a June explosion at the Texas-based Freeport LNG facility knocked nearly 20% of US LNG export capacity offline, sending LNG markets into a tailspin.
Scientists say the Gulf coast hurricanes are becoming increasingly severe, causing record-breaking compound flooding and placing critical infrastructure at risk.
Meanwhile, whereas the United States has the world’s largest lineup of new LNG projects in the works, there are also limits to how far this can go without more pipeline capacity to accommodate this wildly expanding energy segment.
In the Appalachian Basin, the country’s largest gas-producing region churning out more than 35 Bcf/d, environmental groups have repeatedly stopped or slowed down pipeline projects and limited further growth in the Northeast.
This leaves the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale to shoulder much of the growth forecast for LNG exports. Indeed, EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT) CEO Toby Rice recently acknowledged that Appalachian pipeline capacity has “hit a wall.”
Analysts at East Daley Capital Inc. have projected that U.S. LNG exports will grow to 26.3 Bcf/d by 2030 from their current level of nearly 13 Bcf/d.
For this to happen, the analysts say another 2-4 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity would need to come online between 2026 and 2030 in the Haynesville.
“This assumes significant gas growth from the Permian and other associated gas plays. Any view where oil prices take enough of a dip to slow that activity in the Permian and you’re going to have even more of a call for gas from gassier basins,” the analysts have said.
Mozambique To The Rescue Though it may be rather late in the game, Europe is beginning to seriously consider Africa for its future energy supplies. Most notably, Mozambique is poised to ship its first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe at this critical time.
This, too, is fraught with vulnerabilities in the form of political instability and insurgency.
French TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project has been sidelined by insurgency. Italian Eni’s Coral-Sul FLNG is safe from the violent flashpoint and on track to help serve Europe, with BP already having inked a deal to buy all of the output for 20 years from the $7-billion Coral-Sul project, designed to produce 3.4 million metric tons of LNG.
The Italian company is already planning a second floating export platform in the southern African country that could be completed in less than four years. But nothing is certain here.
In the heart of the insurgency, TotalEnergies has announced plans to resume its massive $20 billion project toward the end of the year, with the terminal expected to churn out 13.1 million tons of LNG annually.
That is, if it ever gets past the insurgency that led to a declaration of force majeure. The project hopes to restart in the first half of next year.
Optimism runs high, despite all. ExxonMobil says it will make a final decision for an even larger project in the near future.
Meanwhile, the European Union has planned a five-fold increase in financial support to $15 million to fight militants near Mozambique’s gas projects.
The EU has already pledged to provide the country’s army with an additional 45 million euros ($45 million) of financial support, and has so far given a SADC mission in the country 2.9 million euros of funding.
Over the short-term, Europe is making headway in filling up its gas storage, and is now nine weeks ahead of where it was this time last year, even if it has come at a hefty premium.
European gas storage levels are above 70%, and have even surpassed the 5-year average, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).
By November 1st, the EU will likely hit 80% natural gas storage capacity, just in time for peak winter demand. Germany is even aiming for 95% capacity, and is already at 85%.
“The EU already surpassed its September 1 interim filling target in early July and is still on pace to reach the November 1 target,” Jacob Mandel, senior associate for commodities at Aurora Energy Research, has told Reuters.
Indeed, analysts at Standard Chartered Plc are saying that President Vladimir Putin’s gas weapon will be effectively blunted by the inventory build, with Europe set to go through winter “comfortably” without Russian gas.
This, however, poses two different problems: First, Europe will have to pay a heavy price, the cost of replenishing natural gas stocks is estimated at over 50 billion euros ($51 billion), 10 times more than the historical average for filling up tanks ahead of winter; Second, the bloc can’t survive on storage alone unless it severely reduces consumption for the winter.
Europe, as it stands, is vulnerable on every energy front, and if it’s not geopolitics and insurgency, it’s Mother Nature at her wildest.
Kimani reports for Oilprice.com

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Continue Reading

Oil & Energy

Nigeria’s LPG Production Hits 5m Tonnes 

Published

on

The Federal Government says Nigeria currently produces about five million tonnes of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) annually and only eight per cent of the production is being utilised domestically, with the bulk being exported.
It says domestic LPG production stands at about 45 per cent of annual consumption, with Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG) supplying 450,000 metric tonnes per annum while 55 per cent is imported.
Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters in the Office of the Vice President, Dr Adeyemi Dipeolu, made this known recently at an India-Nigeria LPG Summit, Abuja, 2022.
The Tide’s source  reports that the India-Nigeria LPG summit was hosted by Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) with the support of the Office of the Vice President and World LPG Association (WLPGA).
The summit is expected to translate into bilateral exchanges to foster mutual collaboration and opportunities for the Nigerian LPG industry to learn from India’s experience, one of the world’s most successful National LPG penetration initiatives.
In a keynote address, Dipeolu said Nigeria had the ninth largest proven natural gas reserves in the world, and also the second largest producer of LPG in Africa after Algeria.
“LPG adoption in the Nigerian market, of course, is still very low with per capita consumption at about 1.8 kg, which is below the West African average.
“The household energy mix in Nigeria is about five per cent LPG, 65 per cent biomass and 30 per cent kerosene.
“The preference for the use of other sources is largely due to high switching costs associated with the acquisition of cylinders and LPG stoves, lack of awareness of associated benefits and safe LPG handling across consumer basis.
“There is also the high cost of LPG in comparison with alternative fuels, insufficient and inappropriate cylinders in circulation and inadequate infrastructure, especially trucks, roads, rail pipelines and plants,” he said.
He said the predominant use of biomass for household cooking resulted in deforestation and ambient air pollution, which also could lead to death due to stroke, heart disease, lung cancer and chronic respiratory diseases.
The Presidential Aide underscored the imperative for policies, incentives and investment to grow the Nigerian LPG market.
This, he said, would make cleaner fuel available, accessible and affordable, not only for household cooking, but also in autogas, captive power generation, heating and cooling as well as agriculture and industry.
He expressed optimism that Nigeria would learn from Indian’s experience with the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) scheme implemented by the Indian Government in May 2016 such that LPG penetration in that country increased from 62 per cent to 100 per cent currently.
He said the theme of the summit, ‘Energising the Future: Leveraging the Indian Experience to Achieve Nigerian National LPG Aspiration’ underscored the need for cooperation and collaboration between the two countries.
Dipeolu said the cooperation should dwell on policy structures; health, safety and environmental methods and standards, ICT, infrastructure management techniques, stakeholder engagement and innovative programmes to incentivise Nigerian LPG market growth.
According to him, the recently enacted PIA specifically provides enablers for robust midstream and downstream gas development through promotion of policies, incentives and wavers to stimulate investments.
Others, he said, included removal of VAT on domestic LPG, presidential waiver on duty imported LPG equipment, tax holiday on new investment on gas and approval of eight new LPG terminals and storage facilities to add 150,000 metric tonnes gas capacity.
###

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Continue Reading

Oil & Energy

FG, NNPC Inject 20m Cylinders Via New Gas Coy

Published

on

The Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC Ltd) is collaborating with the Office of the Vice President on establishment of Gas Funding Company Ltd for injection of 20 million cylinders in the next five years.
The NNPC Ltd said the company’s establishment, which involved collaboration of other relevant stakeholders and being done under the Marketer Cylinder Owned Model, would boost Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) penetration.
The Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO), NNPC, Malam Mele Kyari, said this at the opening of India-Nigeria Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG summit) in Abuja.
The India-Nigeria LPG summit was hosted by the NNPC with the support of the Office of the Vice President and World LPG Association (WLPGA).
The summit is expected to translate into bilateral exchanges to foster mutual collaborations and opportunities for the Nigerian LPG industry to learn from India’s experience, one of the world’s most successful national LPG penetration initiatives.
The summit has its theme as: “Energising the Future: Leveraging the Indian Experience to Achieve Nigerian National LPG Aspiration.”
Kyari, represented by the Group Executive Director, Downstream, NNPC, Mr Adeyemi Adetunji, said the summit would be required to submit a report detailing gaps identified and recommendations on best practices from the Indian experience.
This, he said, would be for adoption in Nigeria by relevant stakeholders to achieve rapid National LPG penetration.
He said the summit would equally discuss the Nigerian experience and Indian example covering safe LPG handling, pricing and financial support.
According to him, this will enhance LPG affordability among the poor, communication strategies, ICT and infrastructure as well as collaboration on Cylinder management and manufacturing.
Kyari said Nigeria had identified its abundant gas resources as fuel for energy transition which informed its net zero commitments by 2060 and the declaration of 2021-2030 as Decade of Gas.
“NNPC Ltd is an energy company with new investments in gas, power and renewables. Key pipeline projects such as ELPS II, OB3 and AKK to deliver a total of 6.2 billion cubic feet of gas per day to demand nodes across the country are at various stages of completion.
“We have strong presence in the LPG value chain contributing about 45 per cent of domestic supply via JVs (Oso Bonny River Terminal) affiliates (Nigeria LNG Ltd and Ashtavinayak Hydocarbon Ltd) and subsidiaries of NPDC.
“The NNPC Ltd. is fully aligned with the Federal Government’s National Gas Expansion Programme (NGEP) and National LPG Expansion Plan initiatives and has a full-fledged LPG business unit established to commercially drive the National LPG penetration.
“Accordingly, NNPC Ltd is commissioned to deploy 740 LPG Micro Distribution Centres (MDCs) 37 Filing Plants and Skids in its 541 stations within the next three years,’’ he said.
Michael Kelly, the Chief Advocacy Officer and Deputy Managing Director, WLPGA, said the both countries had a powerful role to play in geopolitics for the rest of the century.
Kelly said the discussions would be followed up to foster the cooperation during its LPG week in Delhi in November, adding that looking at lessons learnt and grafting them into Nigerian context would be impactful.
He said the focus of the summit was to share India’s experience with the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PUMY) scheme implemented by the Indian Government in May 2016.
This scheme pursued an aggressive LPG penetration drive, providing free cylinders, stoves and valves to end users.
This resulted to growth in LPG consumption in last 10 years, with the Indian National consumption currently at 30 million MT per annum and LPG penetration from 62 per cent in 2016 to 99 per cent in 2019.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Continue Reading

Oil & Energy

TotalEnergies Commits To Grooming Young Leaders

Published

on

An International Oil Company (IOC), TotalEnergies, has restated its commitment to grooming tomorrow’s leaders using its Book Reading programme as a way of helping children to deal with all distractions, including social media.
Deputy Managing Director, Joint Venture Assets (JVA), TotalEnergies, Guillaume Dulout, made this known at the company’s 2022 Book Reading and Open Day held in Port Harcourt for Senior Secondary Schools in Rivers State, weekend.
Represented by General Manager, Facilities Management and Administration, Mr Patrick Somiari, Dulout noted that it was exciting to the Book Reading event, being the first physical book reading event after the COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions.
He added that TotalEnergies would apply the Book Reading and Open Day programme, with the theme, “Today A Reader, Tomorrow A Leader”, to drive a sustained measure to nurture children into becoming successful leaders of tomorrow.
He explained that the annual Book Reading programme is TotalEnergies/NNPC Joint Venture’s goodwill to encourage students to embrace reading as a way of life, noting that “Open Day presents a window to share career paths and opportunities in order to guide the students to make informed and rewarding career decisions”.
Observing that reading did not come without some difficulties, Dulout encouraged the students to continue to push as it was the only way to prepare for leadership.
According to him, “being a leader does not usually come without effort. Thankfully, the few who put in the work prepare themselves to be leaders when the opportunity comes.
“Perhaps, nothing positions you better for leadership than reading. You must read; read regularly, read voraciously. It was in that light that the English philosopher and statesman, Sir Francis Bacon, observed that ‘Reading maketh a full man’.
“Reading involves a considerable level of concentration and thus, nurtures patience. What follows is better vocabulary and knowledge. Indeed, patience, knowledge and a rich reservoir of vocabulary help you establish the identity of a leader. Reading nurtures values that make you a leader”.
He stated that the book chosen for the event, “Diary of Fatherland”, by Charles Nelson, was chosen for its content as it would increase their appetite for books and place them on the path of leadership.
“You must start reading today. The book we have chosen to read at today’s event, ‘Diary of Fatherland’ by Charles Nelson, is designed to heighten your appetite for books and place you on the path of leadership.
“Of course, you will not find reading a piece of cake or undemanding, especially in the times we live in. If dealing with the appeal of the traditional media, especially TV and cinema, was difficult, the proliferation and allure of the social media would make reading more challenging.
“But don’t allow these media and their devices to be a drag on your dream of becoming a leader. I believe all the distractions that are incidental to young ones today have magnified the importance of the Book Reading & Open Day programme”, he said.
He charged them, saying, “Participate, be attentive, be involved, read. My sincere hope is that at the end of today’s programme, you would make the decision to be a reader, a leader”.
In his remarks, the Rivers State Commissioner for Education, Prof Prince Chinedu Mmom, charged the students to sustain their reading habits as there was no short cut to academic progress.
Participants were drawn from 10 Rivers Senior Secondary Schools, including Bluebell Montessori International Secondary School; Government Girls Secondary School, Rumuokwuta; Army Day Secondary School, Bori Camp; Community Secondary School, Okporo; Community Secondary School, Rumuomasi; Community Secondary School Rukpokwu; Graceland International School; Community Comprehensive  Secondary School, Rumuokwurusi; Tantua International Group of Schools; and Government Technical College, Port Harcourt.

By: Tonye Nria-Dappa

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Continue Reading

Trending