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OPEC Looks Beyond Politics, Focuses On Long-Term Production 

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The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), met last Thursday for its regular monthly review of production policy. This time, no one seems to expect surprises, and the reason is that in the past couple of months, the cartel and its allies in OPEC led by Russia have been in remarkable sync. And they appear to have had enough of consumers’ pressure.
The Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates, Suhail Al-Mazrouei, sounded a sober note earlier this week as he struck at Western countries for having what can only be described as a hypocritical attitude to fossil fuels.
“I think in COP 26 all the producers felt they were uninvited and unwanted but now we are again superheroes, it’s not going to work like that,” the Minister said at the Global Energy Forum organized by the Atlantic Council in Dubai.
The top Emirati energy official went on to explain the basics of the oil industry, stressing that production is tied to long-term planning, which is incompatible with calls and actions on investment cuts in order to put more money into renewable energy.
That should have been obvious to everyone familiar with the very basics of economics, but it appears to have escaped some currently in charge in Europe and the United States.
Their reasoning seems to be that oil producers have a vested interest in selling their oil while it is in demand because in 20 years, per climate change plans, demand won’t be that strong.
It is a valid line of reasoning and one that the oil producers themselves have recognised. It is this, at least in part, that has motivated the UAE and Saudi Arabia to invest in boosting their output capacity.
The UAE is aiming for 5 million bpd in total production, and the Saudis are eyeing 13 million bpd in production capacity.
This should be good news for oil-thirsty importers, but this capacity is not coming online this year while the importers, specifically the ones in Europe, are eager to reduce their dependence on Russian oil right now, by the end of the year.
The obvious substitute for Russian oil would be oil from the Middle East, but as Reuters’ John Kemp recently explained, this is easier said than done.
Although, theoretically, new markets would be good news for oil exporters, OPEC is still limiting its production, and some members are failing to pump even as much as that limited amount agreed by the OPEC+ group.
Also, as Kemp pointed out in his column, rerouting oil flows from Asia to Europe makes very little strategic sense: Europe is an oil market in decline, unlike Asia. In other words, Gulf producers don’t really have an incentive to sell more oil to Europe. Nor do they have an incentive to join the Western condemnation of Russia.
“When it comes to OPEC+ — I would take that privilege of saying I’ve been at it for 35 years, and I know how we managed to compartmentalize our political differences from what is for the common good of all of us,” Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salmantold CNBC’s Hadley Gamble this week, speaking of the Russian issue.
“That culture is seeped into OPEC+, so when we get into that OPEC meeting room, or OPEC building, everybody leaves his politics at the outside door of that building, and that culture has been with us,” bin Salman also said.
Indeed, one only needs to recall that OPEC involves both Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two Middle Eastern archenemies, and they have managed to act in concert on oil despite their differences.
OPEC, and OPEC+, appear to be stronger than ever. It is hard to believe that just two years ago, Saudi Arabia and Russia locked horns over oil policies and even engaged in a sort of an oil output blitz to make their respective points, pushing prices down sharply just before the pandemic really got going, pushing them a lot further lower. The two cooled off pretty soon and have been working in harmony ever since.
Crude oil prices slipped briefly below $100 per barrel on signals that the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine had struck a constructive note.
However, soon after the news, traders apparently realized this wouldn’t automatically mean the lifting of sanctions on Russia, and prices rebounded, helped by the API’s weekly inventory report, which estimated a decline of 3 million barrels.
The villain-turned-superhero trope is one that is well known and frequently exploited in literature and film. There are plenty of examples of this trope in geopolitics as well, as well as its mirror image of the superhero-turned-villain. Yet OPEC clearly does not want to star in such a film.
OPEC has its priorities, and it is sticking to them, even in the face of growing pressure from its political partners in the West. The latter might need to be more convincing in their assurances that they are committed to this partnership, and even that may not be enough to sway the cartel into producing more oil.

By: Irina Slav
Slav reports for Oilprice.com

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NSCDC’s Anti-Vandal Squad Uncovers Artisanal Refinery In Rivers Community

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The Anti-Vandal Squad of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Rivers State Command, has uncovered yet another local refinery situated at Adobi-Akwa settlement in Etche Local Government Area of Rivers State.
The State Commandant, Basil Igwebueze, disclosed this while speaking to journalists shortly after the tour of the Illegal site.
Represented by the Head, Anti-Vandal Squad, CSC Peters Ibiso, Igwebueze said the squad made the discovery following a tipp off, expressing regret that no arrest was made as the  boys fled the site upon sighting the squad.
The cammandant’s representative took the newsmen across a tick forest of about 6-7 kilometers from the main town.
The team sighted where the pipeline vandals tapped into the Well Head of yet to be ascertained multinational company, connected their galvanised pipes to several cooking pots, heat up the crude to produce Automotive Gas Oil (AGO).
In his words, “Upon receiving a tip-off, the Anti-Vandal operatives swung into action to uncover this illegal oil bunkering site. They were in this forest for two days having cordoned the area, unfortunately, the perpetrators upon sighting our men took to their heels, but investigation is still ongoing to effect the arrests of such defiant elements”.
The Anti-Vandal Unit Head further narrated the operation techniques of the operators of local illegal refineries from the point of extraction of crude through vandalism of oil pipelines to cooking in various ovens where the content is subjected to high temperature and transmitted through pipes to reservoirs for storage and onward trans- loading to buyers.
While insisting that the command would not relent in the fight against illegal dealings in petroleum products, he urged the public to have more trust in the NSCDC by providing actionable intelligence that would enhance possible arrest of economic saboteurs in the State.
“Our commitment to continuously work in tandem with the prosecutorial mandate of the corps in order to rid the State of economic saboteurs remains unchanged. We value our informants and most especially the intelligence driven tip-off received from time to time.
“It is also our duty to ensure that our source of information are not disclosed so as to protect our informants. It is therefore our delight that the public will continue to have confidence and trust in us as we together protect the nation’s critical national assets and infrastructure from dare devil vandals”, he stated.

By: Lady Godknows Ogbulu

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Oil Fund Withdrawals Suggest Extended Price Rally

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The world’s largest crude oil exchange-traded fund has bled over $2 billion in less than a year. And it i
s not due to investors finding greener pastures elsewhere with other ETFs; it is the siren call of soaring prices that is prompting this mass exodus.
The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil exchange-traded commodity had assets under management of some $2.5 billion last summer, according to Bloomberg. Now, the publication reports, this is down to $396 million, with withdrawals accelerating over the past few days.
In that, withdrawals seem to be following price trends. Brent earlier this month topped $90 per barrel and, after a short pause earlier this week, is back above that threshold again following the latest Israeli strike on the Gaza Strip amid reports about a possible ceasefire.
While it is true that prices are currently driven higher mainly by geopolitical events, fundamentals are also at play. A growing number of forecasters are updating their predictions for benchmarks this year on expectations of resilient demand and increasingly tighter supply. And investors are following the trend.
Even those who have not sold their ETF holdings in order to invest more directly in the rally are benefitting. That same WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETC generated returns of over 13 percent during the first quarter of the year as opposed to an average 8.8% gain in the S&P 500.
The WisdomTree exchange-traded commodity became the world’s largest oil fund at the beginning of last year. The fund saw inflows of over $1 billion, which poured in as the deflation in oil prices that had begun in late 2022 extended into the new year. Now, the trend has reversed and it has reversed strongly.
The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETC is not the only fund seeing outflows. The U.S. Oil Fund, which used to be the world’s biggest oil fund before the WisdomTree inflows last year and is now the world’s biggest oil fund once again, also saw a flurry of investor exits as benchmarks climbed higher.
According to Bloomberg, the fund’s assets under management currently stand at $1.3 billion, down from some $5 billion during the pandemic.
In further evidence that oil makes money, the Middle East is about to become the only region in the world with three trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is worth $993 billion, Bloomberg reported in March, while the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Kuwait Investment Authority are breathing down its neck.
Meanwhile, investment in transition-related stocks is on the decline, according to data reported by Reuters. The S&P Global Clean Energy Index is down by 10% since the start of the year. In comparison, the S&P 500 Energy Index, which comprises Big Oil names, has gained 16.3%.
The data shows that investors are growing wary of all the promises made by transition advocates as evidence mounts that these were not based on due diligence. Wind and solar stocks suffered a crash last year when this first became clear.
Now, we are witnessing a continued awakening among investors to the challenges and the realistic potential of transition technology and alternative energy sources.
“With conventional energy having its own bull run, I think the alternative funds will struggle for the foreseeable future, and we shall see what the election brings”,  the Managing Director of capital markets at Phoenix Capital Group Holdings told Reuters.
The comment summarizes the challenging situation for alternative energy investment and highlights the rebound of interest in oil and gas, much to the chagrin of decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic.
In both Europe and the U.S., things can get even worse for the transition after the respective elections—in June for European Parliament and in November for U.S. President. It will certainly be an interesting year in energy.
Slav writes for oilprice.

By: Irina Slav

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CNG Initiative: FG Targets 25,000 Jobs, $2.5bn Investment 

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The Programme Director and Chief Executive, Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiatives, Michael Oluwagbemi, has announced the Federal Government’s plan to target over 25,000 jobs and $2.5 billion worth of investment by 2027.
Oluwagbemi made this known during the Presidential CNG stakeholders’ engagement workshop held at BOVAS Auto-Gas Filling Stations, Ajibode Bus-Stop, in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, at the weekend.
He stated that the initiative, which was part of palliative measures to ease the burden of the removal of fuel subsidy, would attract enormous investment and job creation as well as impact positively on the lives of Nigerians.
Meanwhile, he called on Nigerians to embrace the new initiatives by the Federal Government as part of palliatives to cushion the effect of the removal of fuel subsidy in the country.
“On October 1, 2023, when the President gave his speech, he announced that the Presidential CNG initiatives are going to be rolled out as part of palliatives on the removal of fuel subsidy.
“One of our major concerns is to make sure that the transition for the transportation sector is a cheaper, safer, and more reliable source of energy.
“In the coming weeks, we are going to be announcing the conversion incentives programme which will enable Nigerians currently using PMS and Diesel fuel vehicles to be able to convert their vehicles at designated places across the country at a discounted price based on certain pre-qualification under the palliative programme of the Federal Government”, he said.
On the value chain of the initiative, Oluwagbemi explained that the Federal Ministry of Finance is acquiring tricycles and buses that would be assembled and manufactured in Nigeria, with more than five automobile firms being activated.
“The value chain of the programme starts with every one of us. From the point of converting your vehicle, you have created the demand for natural gas.
“If your vehicle is converted by technicians and refuelled by autogas workshops across the country, then you are creating jobs for civil engineers and technicians. You’re creating jobs for the upstream in terms of upstream activities associated with oil and gas.
“And in line with the programme, the Federal Ministry of Finance is acquiring a number of tricycles and buses that will be assembled and manufactured in Nigeria. More than five of our automobile firms have been activated. So, you can see that in terms of job creation, the opportunities for Nigerians are enormous.
“The President has said we need to convert one million vehicles by 2027. We need 1,000 conversion shops and we need over 3,000 filing stations just like this. You can imagine the level of investment required for this.
“In order to sustain one million vehicle conversions by 2027, we need 25,000 technicians. So, the job creation potential is an opportunity for job creation in addition to our gross domestic product, $2.5 billion worth of investment to be mobilised in the next four years and of course more than $25 billion added to our GDP”, he said.
Oluwagbemi further called on Nigerians to embrace the new initiatives by the Federal Government as part of palliatives to cushion the effect of the removal of fuel subsidy in the country.
The representative of BOVAS Filling Station, a private investor in the Presidential CNG Initiatives, Temitope Samson, said, “We have worked with the regulators, we are also working with the Presidential Initiatives on CNG to make sure that standard safety is adhered to. We have also worked with the Standard Organisation of Nigeria to ensure that we have a standard accepted internationally.
“Our role is to ensure that there is availability of CNG across the nation, and to also ensure we have enough kits and tanks that are converted for people to use as many as possible, and to ensure safety and to train others so that anywhere they get to, they have very safe conversion”.
Recall that last year, President Bola Tinubu approved the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas initiative(PCNG-i)
This initiative aims to not only introduce more than 11,500 new CNG-enabled vehicles and provide 55,000 CNG conversion kits for existing vehicles that depend on Premium Motor Spirit but also promote local manufacturing, assembly, and job creation.

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