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Global Energy Advisory …Bulls Run Rampant In The Oil Market

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In this edition, Martin Tillier highlights what he believes to be the most important theme in energy markets in 2018. He argues that this theme should be a central part of your trading strategy this year, and picks a stock that he believes is set to boom.
We’ve been nearly alone in taking in some stellar gains in oil stocks since late October, benefiting from an oil rally that few analysts (besides myself) saw coming and positioned themselves for. And the watchword for today is: Let it ride.
You know that I am a long-term bull on oil prices and oil stocks, and even the impressive extension of WTI prices near to $65 a barrel this week throws only a little cold water on my expectations. We’re in the driver’s seat now. You can take some money off the table, sure – but for the most part, let everyone else chase and play catch-up with our stocks.
I was on Bloomberg TV on Wednesday to engage in a bull/bear debate on oil – as if this rally from the mid-forties only began yesterday. A clip from Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs was played to start the debate, where he noted the robust oil demand expectations for 2018, but was pessimistic about sustaining $60 oil based upon the deep backwardation of the futures markets.
In person, I debated Michael Cohen of Barclays, whose main pessimism was based upon the 1.5m barrels a day of US production he expects to see added in 2018 – a projection that far exceeds even the very unlikely (according to me) 1m barrels a day from the EIA. But Cohen’s 2018 target for WTI – $52 – is already twelve dollars in the rear-view mirror. Um, that’s not so comforting a forecast – considering its still only the 12th of January.
But, instead of engaging (again) in assessing just how much new U.S. shale oil is to come in 2018, let’s look (and debunk?) the interesting argument about the crude curve from Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie:
The crude curve is a difficult, but worthwhile mechanism to try and understand, particularly for a 30-year futures trading veteran like me. One of the few generalisations I can make after those 30 years, is that the shape of the futures curve is rarely predictive of prices, unless very wide extremes are being seen.
Let’s take the case of Contango to start examining this, where prices for crude delivery in the future are more expensive than those in the present. In such a case, we are staring at a type of ‘carry trade’ opportunity, where commercial traders can sell far back month futures, buy front (or cash) crude contracts and physically (or virtually) ‘store’ the barrels – pocketing the difference of the Contango, minus the carry (storage) costs. In very extreme cases, such a Contango can signal a coming turnaround to the upside in oil prices – as the $15 12-month Contango did in 2009 and the $8 Contango did just two years ago.
Currie makes the opposite case today, now that the crude curve has gone (recently) into backwardation, where the prices at the front of the curve are more expensive than in the back months. The thesis for an extreme backwardation signalling a coming drop in prices is the exact opposite to the one for Contango: Commercials acquire everything that’s left in storage and flood the market, while buying replacement supplies in back contracts to replace what they’ve sold.
The thing is – The actual physical case for backwardation selling is not nearly as compelling (or as profitable) for commercials as it is for carry trade buying. Historically, all the really big oil bull markets took place despite carrying a deep backwardation as a condition of the crude curve. Most of the bull market from 2003-2007, for example, which took crude to $140 a barrel, happened while the spreads were in fairly deep backwardation.
And even now, it’s not as if backwardation is all that extreme anyway:
This is the current 12-month Feb18-Feb19 spread. Yes, this spread went from Contango to backwardation in September of last year, moving to nearly $5. But that is hardly enough to entice the prompt selling of cargoes today to include the 12-month carry costs. What is more likely happening is a surplus of commercial back month sellers, all hoping to lock in $65 hedges for next year and beyond, and simply not finding the speculative buying to offset it – that’s what I believe has been moving the spread so much higher so quickly in the last several weeks of the New Year.
I know this has been a bit of a wonky column, but I hope you’ll find some value in understanding a little about the crude curve; when it provides a predictive edge – and when it doesn’t.

 

Martin Tillier

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Maritime

Shippers’ Council Registers 160 Port Operators

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The Nigerian Shippers Council (NSC) says it has registered 160 Port stakeholders into its Regulated Port Service Provider and Users platform since the initiative began in 2023.
Executive Secretary, NSC, Mr Pius Akutah, made the disclosure on the sideline of a sensitisation programme by the commission for port operators in Lagos, with the theme, “Regulated Port Service Provider and Users”.
Represented by the Director, Consumer Affairs, Chief Cajetan Agu, Akutah emphasised the significance of the programme for stakeholders.
He said the sensitisation programme was the second edition after its commencement during the last quarter of 2023.
The Secretary said the 160 registered port operators consist of agencies, terminal operators, shipping companies, individual port users as well as service providers.
“We invited the ports stakeholders for enlightening them on the processes for online registration of Regulated Port Service Provider and Users.
“We have demonstrated to them how to register and how to make payment and we were able to present before them the various categories of the registration.
“The rate of payment is also in the registration. The payment of each group depends on the operation. A shipper pays N30,000, terminal operators and shipping companies pay N300,000, truckers also pay N30,000, while some pay N50,000 and N100,000.
“The Council was able to intimate them on the benefits, because port users benefit more as we help to interface on reducing port charges from time to time”,  Akutah said.
He said  that there was a need to continue to work with port operators to stop delays and eliminate high costs to make the port efficient.
Also speaking, the Deputy Director, Stakeholders, Service, NSC, Mr Celestine Akujobi, said “the sensitisation exercise was important for the council to enable us bring all the port stakeholders together”.
According to him, this is to avoid challenges during the implementation of the council’s responsibilities.
“By the time we introduce sanctions on defaulters, no operators will complain that he or she is not aware of the registration.
“I’m happy with the turnout of this sensitisation. This shows that the operators are well informed of the statutory friction of the council as the port regulator.
“The final implementation will commence as soon as we discover that all the operators have keyed into the portal.
“We are engaging other ports across the country and we’re hopeful that before the last quater of 2024, the council will implement sanctions on defaulting operators”, Akujobi said.
Earlier, Vice Chairman, National Association of Government Approved Freight Forwards (NAGAFF), Dr Ifeanyi Emoh, said  port challenges were enormous, adding that they originated from some of the government agencies.

Emoh urged the council to look into regulating other government agencies, so that there could be a window through which they can collect port charges collectively instead of indiscriminately.

By: Chinedu Wosu

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Business

Chivita, Hollandia Reward Outstanding Trade Partners At Annual Conference

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Chivita| Hollandia (CHI Limited) leading fruit juice and value-added dairy manufacturer in Nigeria has rewarded its long standing distributors at the recently held 2024 Distributor Conference. The event with the theme, “Break Boundaries Exceed Expectations” served as a platform to recognise and reward the exceptional contribution of the distributors and wholesalers who play a critical role in Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited) success and business goals for the year.
The Distributor Conference was held in two sessions. While the morning session featured keynote addresses, industry insights and brand immersion experience, the evening session was a cultural display of elegance and funfair that culminated in the award presentation and recognition of the contribution the trade partners made to the company in the 2023 year under review.
A key highlight of the event was the award ceremony which acknowledged outstanding trade partners in various regions across the country. The awards recognized commitment, dedication, and outstanding performance in areas of sales growth, brand promotion, and market expansion.
Eelco Weber, Managing Director, Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited), stated that the company’s success story is incomplete without the strong partnerships it has built with trade partners. “Today, we celebrate not only the achievements, but the collaborative spirit that has made our growth possible” he said.
Bola Arotiowa, Chief Commercial Officer, Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited), in his statement revealed that, the event which was first of its kind will continue to be an annual meeting to enable the company work more closely with its distributors, share insights and action points, help the trade partners familiarize themselves with the company’s goals and objectives for each year, and serve as a driver for mutual success.
“Our distributors are the backbone of Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited). Their relentless efforts in distributing our products, promoting our brands, and expanding our reach across the nation is truly commendable. As the bridge between us and our valued consumers, it is very important to reward their hard work and dedication for being an essential part of the Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited) family. Together, we will continue to deliver great products to our conusmers which in turn will deliver value to them”, Mr. Arotiowa added.
Speaking at the conference, HajiyaBilikisuSaida, Chief Executive Officer of Smabirm Nigeria Limited, who won the Outstanding Distributor of the Year in North 1 region, and got a reward of two million Naira worth of Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited) products expressed delight at the company’s recognition, and stated that the awards served as a way to inspire distributors to do more and put in more effort, which in turn would help both the distributors and the company to grow.
Other outstanding performance distributors of the year rewarded with a two million Naira worth of Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited) stock include, Sunny Chuks Limited for East 1 region, MRS FA & Sons Limited for East 2 region, Hussakas Ventures for North 2 region, Rookee 1388 Ventures for Lagos 1 region, Pik N Pil Ventures for Lagos 2 region, FaithJoe Event Management Limited for West 1 region, and Progress Family Nigeria Enterprise for West 2 region.
The annual Distributors Conference aims to strengthen the bond between Chivita|Hollandia (CHI Limited) and its trade partners. This collaborative approach fosters mutual growth and ensures the continued success of the brands in the Nigerian market.
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Business

AXA Mansard Backs Female-Owned MSMEs With N1.4m Grant

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A global leader in insurance and asset management, AXA Mansard, has supported three female-owned MSMEs with business grants totaling 1.4 million to boost their operations.
This, the company said, is part of its commitment to women and the Medium, Small, and Medium-scale Enterprise (MSME) sector in the country.
The three businesses were successful at the International Women’s Day Pitch Competition, organised in partnership with SME 100 Africa in Lagos.
According to the Head of Marketing, AXA Mansard, Olusesan Ogunyooye, the competition, which is aimed at supporting female entrepreneurs in Nigeria, “is another way AXA is demonstrating its commitment to the causes of women and stimulating the MSME sector in Nigeria”.
The business pitch competition received numerous entries from women across different sectors, but after a rigorous selection process, shortlisted participants were selected to participate in the competition.
Ogunyooye said “the programme provided a unique opportunity for women from various works and socio-economic classes to showcase their innovative ideas and solutions in sectors such as food, tech, fashion, and fragrance, creating an atmosphere filled with excitement, enthusiasm, and a strong sense of community”.
He stressed the importance of investing in women, saying it is not just the right thing to do, but also aligns with AXA’s purpose of acting for human progress.
He explained that AXA believes the future of women should not be at risk, hence investing in their economic empowerment is a crucial part

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