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Global Energy Advisory

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This week in energy was dominated by the predictions from two top energy sources – OPEC and the International Energy Agency.
On the one side you had OPEC, which is meeting on November 30th to decide the fate of production guidelines going forward. It might be no surprise, in advance of that meeting that they would upgrade their view of the global demand picture and they did – seeing at least their share of demand increasing by more than 400,000 barrels a day. This prediction would bode very well for the Saudi/OPEC strategy of continued restrictions on production going forward.
On the opposite side was the IEA, whose World Energy Outlook reduced their forecast for oil demand to a ‘mere’ 1.5m barrels a day increase in 2018 – a number that’s already historically huge, but a reduction from a forecast they had in fact increased – two times already – in 2017. More impactful, perhaps, was their longer-term forecast of global energy use. Despite their robust call for a 30 percent increase in total energy demand to 2040, they somehow managed to discount the role that crude oil was likely to play in fulfilling that demand.
Whether I buy the IEA’s prognostication skills 20+ years into the future given their helpless track record or not – (I don’t) – the WEO was blamed for a sell-off in oil futures in the last week.
Let’s discount these reports for the moment. This sell-off was more likely a result of the huge influx of hedge fund and other speculative account long positions that had accumulated in the last weeks, a negative trend I spotted and pointed out in last week’s column.
The most important question to answer is of course: What now?
It has been my position during the last several months that oil is making its way towards a new bull market and the predictive analyses do nothing to alter that position. Indeed, the one fundamental piece of news that might slow down my enthusiasm for oil isn’t related either to the IEA’s WEO report nor the overeager buying of hedge funders – it is the unsettling increase of a net nine rigs from the Baker-Hughes report of November 10th, including seven fresh drilled from the Scoop/Stack. Whether this is a trend that will creep rigs upwards again – something I definitely wasn’t expecting through the end of the year – is something that bears watching for the next several weeks.
But until that trend is definitively upended, every dip must be viewed as a buying opportunity.
And here I invite you to look at some of the names that might have rocketed upwards and might have become too expensive to enter – now moderating slowly to more appetising levels.
You know I am not your broker and will not deliver names you must buy and prices at which they must be bought. But I again will voice my preference for independent Permian shale names that have core acreage that’s proven to be profitable at $55 a barrel, with decent financials.
Many names will come to mind, including Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Concho Resources (CXO), Cimarex (XEC), EOG Resources (EOG) – and other smaller cap names like SM energy (SM) Centennial Resources (CDEV), Matador (MTDR) and Jagged Edge (JAG).
Until our thesis is broken, these are the places to look to take advantage of a market that I believe is just taking a small break from its inevitable upwards climb.
Source: Oilprice Report for 17/11/17

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FG Explains Sulphur Content Review In Diesel Production 

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The Federal Government has offered explanation with regard to recent changes to fuel sulphur content standards for diesel.
The Government said the change was part of a regional harmonisation effort, not a relaxation of regulations for local refineries.
The Chief Executive, Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, told newsmen that the move was only adhering to a 2020 decision by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) which mandated a gradual shift to cleaner fuels across the region.
Ahmed said the new limits comply with the decision by ECOWAS that mandated stricter fuel specifications, with enforcement starting in January 2021 for non-ECOWAS imports and January 2025 for ECOWAS refineries.
“We are merely implementing the ECOWAS decision adopted in 2020. So, a local refinery with a 650 ppm sulphur in its product is permissible and safe under the ECOWAS rule until January next year where a uniform standard would apply to both the locally refined and imported products outside West Africa”, Ahmed said.
He said importers were notified of the progressive reduction in allowable sulphur content, reaching 200 ppm this month from 300 ppm in February, well before the giant Dangote refinery began supplying diesel.
Recall that an S&P Global report, last week, noted a significant shift in the West African fuel market after Nigeria altered its maximum diesel sulphur content from 200 parts per million (ppm) to around 650 ppm, sparking concerns it might be lowering its standards to accommodate domestically produced diesel which exceeds the 200 ppm cap.
High sulphur content in fuels can damage engines and contribute to air pollution. Nevertheless, the ECOWAS rule currently allows locally produced fuel to have a higher sulphur content until January 2025.
At that point, a uniform standard of below 5 ppm will apply to both domestic refining and imports from outside West Africa.
Importers were previously permitted to bring in diesel with a sulphur content between 1,500 ppm and 3,000 ppm.
It would be noted that the shift to cleaner fuels aligns with global environmental efforts and ensures a level playing field for regional refiners.

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PHED Implements April 2024 Supplementary Order To MYTO

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The Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution (PHED) plc says it has commenced implementation of the April 2024 Supplementary Order to the MYTO in its franchise area while assuring customers of improved service delivery.
The Supplementary order, which took effect on April 3, 2024, emphasizes provisions of the MYTO applicable to customers on the Band A segment taking into consideration other favorable obligations by the service provider to Band A customers.
The Head, Corporate Communications of the company, Olubukola Ilvebare, revealed that under the new tariff regime, customers on Band A Feeders who typically receive a minimum supply of power for 20hours per day, would now be obliged to pay N225/kwh.
“According to the Order, this new tariff is modeled to cushion the effects of recent shifts in key economic indices such as inflation rates, foreign exchange rates, gas prices, as well as enable improved delivery of other responsibilities across the value chain which impact operational efficiencies and ability to reliably supply power to esteemed customers.
“PHED assures Band A customers of full compliance with the objectives of the new tariff order”, he stated.
Ilvebare also said the management team was committed to delivering of optimal and quality services in this cost reflective dispensation.
The PHED further informed its esteemed customers on the other service Bands of B, C D & E, that their tariff remains unchanged, adding that the recently implemented supplementary order was only APPLICABLE to customers on Band A Feeders.

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PH Refinery: NNPCL Signs Agreement For 100,000bpd-Capacity Facility Construction 

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL) has announced the signing of an agreement with African Refinery for a share subscription agreement with Port-Harcourt Refinery.
The agreement would see the co-location of a 100,000bpd refinery within the Port-Harcourt Refinery complex.
This was disclosed in a press statement on the company’s official X handle detailing the nitty-gritty of the deal.
According to the NNPCL, the new refinery, when operational, would produce PMS, AGO, ATK, LPG for both the local and international markets.
It stated, “NNPC Limited’s moves to boost local refining capacity witnessed a boost today with the signing of share subscription agreement between NNPC Limited and African Refinery Port Harcourt Limited for the co-location of a 100,000bpd capacity refinery within the PHRC complex.
“The signing of the agreement is a significant step towards setting in motion the process of building a new refinery which, when fully operational, will supply PMS, AGO, ATK, LPG, and other petroleum products to the local and international markets and provide employment opportunities for Nigerians.

By: Lady Godknows Ogbulu

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