Opinion
Food Scarcity: Perils Ahead
Vincent Ochonma
The current storm of food scarcity across the world is increasingly drawing a fresh attention to the postulation of the English clergyman and economist, Thomas Malthus over 200 years ago.
In his words: “assuming then my postulation as granted, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence only increases in an arithmetical ratio…”.
In the same vein, Paul Ehrich stated years ago that the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programme embarked upon now.
But because of the tremendous agricultural and industrial changes made during the 19th century, such as the discovery of new mineral resources, improvement in transportation which allowed for more efficient trade and remarkable increase in crop yields, especially in the developed world, the early scholars’ predictions were either neglected or rejected.
Today, with the serious imbalance between the world population and material resources, the predictions are being resurrected. The global population has risen from 4.4 billion in 1980 to about 6.5 billion in 2007. By 2050, it is estimated that the world population will hit nine billion.
Apparently, the 50% food production increase is not catching up with the population explosion. Thus, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Programme; 854 million people do not have enough food for active and healthy life.
Faced with rising food prices which have made basic staples such as rice, corn, wheat, and soya bean unaffordable for many people, experts say that the worst is yet to come.
Already, the food crisis situation has, in recent times, triggered revolts and instability in many parts of the world including Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mauritania, Mozambique, Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Cameroun, and Haiti where a crowd of hungry citizens once marched through Port-au-Prince throwing stones and bottles and chanting, “we are hungry.”
But why have food prices continued to gallop? The factors responsible for the soaring food prices are numerous. They include global warming, population explosion and general food scarcity. Others are bad weather in key food producing countries, the increase in land allocated to bio-fuels, and wars which have made millions of people in refugee camps dependent on food aid.
In the particular case of Nigeria, the food crisis is not a recent phenomenon. It began as agriculture ceased to be a leading sector in the country’s economy, following the discovery of oil and the subsequent boom arising from its products. While the contribution of agriculture to the GDP amounted to 65.39 per cent up till the early 1960s, it declined to 34.06 per cent between 1973 and 1974. And since then, it has continued to drop abysmally.
Even with several programmes and policies, it has been very difficult to effect meaningful changes in agricultural production in the country.
In 2008, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua set up a ministerial committee under the chairmanship of Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to find a solution to the increasing prices of wheat and wheat flour. And a plan was made to release, at appropriate intervals, grains from strategic reserve so as to meet any expected shortfall and reduce the prices of staples in the country.
To meet food security challenges for a period of four years, according to media reports, government also mapped out 16 different strategies including promotion of large scale commercial agriculture between 500 and 3000 hectares, encouragement of formation of specialised co-operative societies, development of agricultural land mapping programme and self-sufficiency plans for food crops, production of fertilisers in the country, and the rehabilitation of degraded irrigation infrastructure under the Rivers Basin and Rural Development Authorities to ensure all-season farming.
In spite of these efforts, the fact is that the subsistence type of agriculture which is characterised by low productivity still predominates. Food production statistics are not available. Credit is difficult to obtain. Illiteracy is high and infrastructure is lacking. And worse still, it is hard to assess the desire or willingness of Nigerians to respond to increased agricultural production.
In the face of these constraints, the unsettled question to be addressed is; what does it take the country to rise above its food crisis?
It has become clear from historical experience that success depends on partnership between government and the people. It is the people who try out new crops or invest in agricultural projects. They do this whenever incentives are present.
Government at all levels must recognise that food production is a major priority item that calls for definite policies and programmes. In such policies and programmes, it should be emphasised that government must provide basic infrastructure, establish production credit banks, build mechanisation centre (for supply of machinery, insecticides, and fertilisers), as well as providing technical advice to farmers.
Provision should also be made for the development of agricultural research base which will be essential in the generation of new technology and ideas for agricultural production.
Food production research must be developed for mainly two groups, namely the small-scale farmers and the large-scale commercial farmers.
The small-scale farmers require improved technology that is useful for them, because they will perhaps continue to feed the rural population. Meanwhile, modern commercial agriculture must also be developed in the country to feed its increasing population.
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Restoring Order, Delivering Good Governance
The political atmosphere in Rivers State has been anything but calm in 2025. Yet, a rare moment of unity was witnessed on Saturday, June 28, when Governor Siminalayi Fubara and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Chief Nyesom Wike, appeared side by side at the funeral of Elder Temple Omezurike Onuoha, Wike’s late uncle. What could have passed for a routine condolence visit evolved into a significant political statement—a symbolic show of reconciliation in a state bruised by deep political strife.
The funeral, attended by dignitaries from across the nation, was more than a moment of shared grief. It became the public reflection of a private peace accord reached earlier at the Presidential Villa in Abuja. There, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu brought together Governor Fubara, Minister Wike, the suspended Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, Martin Amaewhule, and other lawmakers to chart a new path forward.
For Rivers people, that truce is a beacon of hope. But they are not content with photo opportunities and promises. What they demand now is the immediate lifting of the state of emergency declared in March 2025, and the unconditional reinstatement of Governor Fubara, Deputy Governor Dr. Ngozi Odu, and all suspended lawmakers. They insist on the restoration of their democratic mandate.
President Tinubu’s decision to suspend the entire structure of Rivers State’s elected leadership and appoint a sole administrator was a drastic response to a deepening political crisis. While it may have prevented a complete breakdown in governance, it also robbed the people of their voice. That silence must now end.
The administrator, retired naval chief Ibok-Ette Ibas, has managed a caretaker role. But Rivers State cannot thrive under unelected stewardship. Democracy must return—not partially, not symbolically, but fully. President Tinubu has to ensure that the people’s will, expressed through the ballot, is restored in word and deed.
Governor Fubara, who will complete his six-month suspension by September, was elected to serve the people of Rivers, not to be sidelined by political intrigues. His return should not be ceremonial. It should come with the full powers and authority vested in him by the constitution and the mandate of Rivers citizens.
The people’s frustration is understandable. At the heart of the political crisis was a power tussle between loyalists of Fubara and those of Wike. Institutions, particularly the State House of Assembly, became battlegrounds. Attempts were made to impeach Fubara. The situation deteriorated into a full-blown crisis, and governance was nearly brought to its knees.
But the tide must now turn. With the Senate’s approval of a record ?1.485 trillion budget for Rivers State for 2025, a new opportunity has emerged. This budget is not just a fiscal document—it is a blueprint for transformation, allocating ?1.077 trillion for capital projects alone. Yet, without the governor’s reinstatement, its execution remains in doubt.
It is Governor Fubara, and only him, who possesses the people’s mandate to execute this ambitious budget. It is time for him to return to duty with vigor, responsibility, and a renewed sense of urgency. The people expect delivery—on roads, hospitals, schools, and job creation.
Rivers civil servants, recovering from neglect and under appreciation, should also continue to be a top priority. Fubara should continue to ensure timely payment of salaries, address pension issues, and create a more effective, motivated public workforce. This is how governance becomes real in people’s lives.
The “Rivers First” mantra with which Fubara campaigned is now being tested. That slogan should become policy. It must inform every appointment, every contract, every budget decision, and every reform. It must reflect the needs and aspirations of the ordinary Rivers person—not political patrons or vested interests.
Beyond infrastructure and administration, political healing is essential. Governor Fubara and Minister Wike must go beyond temporary peace. They should actively unite their camps and followers to form one strong political family. The future of Rivers cannot be built on division.
Political appointments, both at the Federal and State levels, must reflect a spirit of fairness, tolerance, and inclusivity. The days of political vendettas and exclusive lists must end. Every ethnic group, every gender, and every generation must feel included in the new Rivers project.
Rivers is too diverse to be governed by one faction. Lasting peace can only be built on concessions, maturity, and equity. The people are watching to see if the peace deal will lead to deeper understanding or simply paper over cracks in an already fragile political arrangement.
Wike, now a national figure as Minister of the FCT, has a responsibility to rise above the local fray and support the development of Rivers State. His influence should bring federal attention and investment to the state, not political interference or division.
Likewise, Fubara should lead with restraint, humility, and a focus on service delivery. His return should not be marked by revenge or political purges but by inclusive leadership that welcomes even former adversaries into the process of rebuilding the state.
“The people are no longer interested in power struggles. They want light in their streets, drugs in their hospitals, teachers in their classrooms, and jobs for their children. The politics of ego and entitlement have to give way to governance with purpose.
The appearance of both leaders at the funeral was a glimpse of what unity could look like. That moment should now evolve into a movement-one that prioritizes Rivers State over every personal ambition. Let it be the beginning of true reconciliation and progress.
As September draws near, the Federal government should act decisively to end the state of emergency and reinstate all suspended officials. Rivers State must return to constitutional order and normal democratic processes. This is the minimum requirement of good governance.
The crisis in Rivers has dragged on for too long. The truce is a step forward, but much more is needed. Reinstating Governor Fubara, implementing the ?1.485 trillion budget, and uniting political factions are now the urgent tasks ahead. Rivers people have suffered enough. It is time to restore leadership, rebuild trust, and finally put Rivers first.
By: Amieyeofori Ibim
Amieyeofori Ibim is former Editor of The Tide Newspapers, political analyst and public affairs commentator
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