Fifty years after the Nigerian Civil War, which claimed well over 2.5 million lives, destroyed hundreds of thousands of properties, and rendered millions permanently maimed and traumatised in just about three years, principal actors, survivors, political leaders, historians, activists and other players in the Nigerian Project, not too long ago, converged to provoke a sombre reflection, and warned against utterances and actions capable of triggering the disintegration of the country while advising that the catastrophe of the war years should serve as pivotal driving force for the promotion of peace, national reconciliation, cohesion and unity.
The warning was accentuated by diverse leaders across the nation from different professions, religious and ethnic orientations at the ‘Never Again Conference 2020’ organised by the Igbo think-tank, Nzuko Umunna and Ndigbo Lagos, in collaboration with civil society organisations. At the core of the conference was an x-ray of the major causes and consequences of the ill-fated Civil War and a critical appraisal of the present state of the nation which shows a seemingly dangerous replay of events in virtually all spheres of the Nigerian state.
Consequently, speaker after speaker noted that the complex dynamics, including heavily diverse cultures, tradition, religious affiliations and social backgrounds which have made it difficult for Nigerians to forge a strong, virile, progressive, peaceful and united nation, should be quickly harnessed, coalesced and woven together in harmony to shut out any tendency to plunge the country into another Civil War. They regretted that the failure of Nigeria to move forward in peace and sustainable progress was because of the brazen disrespect of the majority and crass insistence of a minority group to foist its interests in the workings of the executive, legislative, judicial and even military and security superstructures without regard to the consequential violent implosion which such could unleash on the nation.
The leaders pointed at the various unfolding events of the last few years, including rising cases of abuse of power, outright impunity, looting of national treasury and assets, disregard for the rule of law and constitutionality, nepotism, tribalism, lack of compliance with the federal character principle, and targeted systemic violent attacks, killings and acts of war against people of other ethnic groups, and warned that the situation was capable of forcing the majority to fight back, thereby pushing the country into the brink of another Civil War.
The Tide completely agrees that the songs of war, inciting, toxic and inflammatory attacks on people of other ethnic groups are heightening tension. We worry that violent attacks, killings, and kidnapping of people of certain tribes, religion and/or perceived to be of a given social status are taking a dangerous crescendo too. Even the deliberate government strategy to recruit and appoint people from a section of the country into virtually all critical sectors, agencies or departments at the federal level calls for concern.
We, therefore, caution harbingers of discord and war to remember the atrocities of the Civil War and realise that so many things have changed and that the result of another potential war may never be the same. We say so because history tells us that no nation has ever survived two civil wars intact.
While we insist that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nigeria is non-negotiable, we appeal to all players to respect the expressed interests of others, and allow the divergent views to co-exist for the peace and unity of the nation. Indeed, the best way to bring this to life is to key into the urgency to restructure the country with the objective of giving the people a true and acceptable federal structure under which each federating unit would deploy its resources to conquer poverty amongst the people while the rich and the poor cohabit in harmony.
We believe that only a patriotic commitment to peaceful and united Nigeria would lead the present and future generations to a country with tolerant and inclusive political, economic, social and security systems for all. To achieve these, our leaders must entrench the core values of democratic principles and eschew ethnic, religious differences so that the country’s driving force can revert to the ideal: merit, hardwork, creativity and innovation.
For us, there is no better time to raise the alarm than now because the fabric of the Nigerian state has been threatened and weakened by years of degenerate government tactics aimed at marginalising and alienating the majority in governance, repression and deployment of brute force to crush opposition, glorification of injustice and inequality, and other antics that enhance division and incite people to hate.
This is why we urge leaders in various sectors to heed the lesson of the Civil War and the clarion call to do everything within their powers to promote peaceful coexistence and national unity. This is a call to duty and a task for all Nigerians.

The United Nations recently warned that more than 10 countries around the world were at risk of wide spread famines “of biblical proportions” if Coronavirus continues the rampage unabated, alerting that the situation could push the number of people suffering from hunger from 135 million to well over 250 million in coming months. Raising the alarm, Head of World Food Programme (WFP), David Beasley, said that nations in the danger zone included those affected by conflicts, economic crisis and climate change, specifically listing Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Nigeria and Haiti.
The world has to “act wisely and act fast. We could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months. The truth is: we do not have time on our side. I do believe that with our expertise and partnerships, we can bring together the teams and programmes necessary to make certain the Covid-19 pandemic does not become a human and food crisis catastrophe”, Beasley said.
Amplifying Beasley’s sentiments, WFP Senior Economist, Arif Husain, said “the economic impact of the pandemic is potentially catastrophic for millions who are already hanging by a thread. It is a hammer blow for millions more who can only eat if they earn a wage. Lockdowns and global economic recession have already decimated their nest eggs. It only takes one more shock – like Covid-19 – to push them over the edge. We must collectively act now to mitigate the impact of this global catastrophe”.
The Tide completely agrees with the WFP that Nigeria would likely face famine of unprecedented proportions in the months ahead, given the devastating consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic, particularly because of the restrictions associated with the social distancing guideline articulated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to contain spread of the virus. In addition, the lockdowns, leading to the shutdown of businesses in Nigeria, have made the prediction increasingly plausible because the tough restriction of movement measures mean that those in the agricultural sector, including farmers and fishermen, players in the food supply chain, and other economic activities have had to overcome unimaginable hiccups in their efforts to ensure food sufficiency and security for millions of vulnerable people.
This is why we are not surprised with recent National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which indicated that inflation rate increased by 12.26 per cent year-on-year in March, slightly higher than 12.20 per cent rate recorded in February. It is also not surprising that rise in inflation transcends all Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions, where the highest increase was recorded on fish, vegetables, fruits, oil and fats, bread and cereals, potatoes, yam as well as other tubers; critical food stables for all strata of the social class in Nigeria. Similar reports for the first half of 2020 in Nigeria and across the world show the same trend, even as global economies are gradually reopening.
For us, therefore, the signs are clear. The WFP does not need to sound the alarm bell for all tiers of government in Nigeria to begin to look outside the box, and not only act wisely but very fast to stave off the looming catastrophe. Indeed, the NBS report speaks for itself. The fact that the highest rise in inflation rate affects directly key indicators in the food chain should remind leaders across all governance structures that the time to prioritise investment in boosting agricultural development and production is now.
We are aware that the Federal Government has over the last couple of years emphasized its desire to reinvigorate the agriculture sector with a view to making it a strong revenue earner for the country. We are particularly not oblivious of the fact that the government has repeatedly canvassed its commitment to diversify the economy, with emphasis on key programmes to promote food sufficiency and security going forward, including the flagship Anchor Borrowers’ Programme and other intervention initiatives designed to enhance commercial agriculture production portfolio. The Tide is also aware of the various attempts by some state governments to invest in the promotion of agriculture in their states through direct funding of practical schemes to ensure that citizens can access and afford reasonable square meals on their tables every day to fight hunger and starvation, and enhance healthy living.
But the consequences of Covid-19 have triggered a new urgency in efforts to save a huge population of Nigerians from hunger and starvation as a result of the anticipated famine in the land. That urgency calls for proactive measures to boost security for farmers across the country, especially in those areas where insurgency, herdsmen menace and banditry have decimated communities. The goings on in the North-East, North-West, North-Central and other hotbeds of conflict in the country are enough indicators. Besides that, governments need to evolve innovative means of increasing funding for those in the agriculture value chain through subsidies that cut across many subsectors. The issue of flooding, which affects farmers most should be addressed by the appropriate government agencies, particularly now that rainy season has set in. Already, Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) and the National Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) flooding alert this year predicts severe devastations in vulnerable communities, and all tiers of government must work in synergy to ensure that farmers do not suffer avoidable losses as a result of failure of appropriate authorities to provide sustainable buffer and protection for them and their produce.
We are also concerned at the low level of participation of the population in agricultural activities to feed the nation and accelerate exports to boost foreign exchange earnings for the generality of Nigerians. Perhaps, this is the time to urge corporate bodies, individuals with huge capital outlay, especially politicians, and of course, civil servants, to look inwards, and seek strategic ways to drive integrated mechanized farming that brings new impetus to the way we do business in this country. This is possible in almost every state in Nigeria because there are vast fertile, arable lands across many states. A buy in would also increase economic viability of the federating states while its multiplier effects would consistently drive down the unemployment rate, lower the menace of criminality, violent crimes and other social vices, and restore peace, economic growth, political and democratic stability, while opening up potential opportunities for many to tap into confidently to fulfill their potentials. We believe that if governments heed these measures, Nigeria and Nigerians may escape the harsh consequences of the impending famine. The time to act, and wisely too, is now!

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected that Nigeria’s economy would soon witness its worst recession in 30 years.

This projection was part of the Fund’s April 2020 World Economic Outlook report released penultimate Tuesday in Washington DC, United States at the commencement of its 2020 Spring meeting held through video conferencing.

The IMF further said that Nigeria’s economy will recede by 3.4 per cent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has disrupted the global supply chain of most commodities, including the country’s main export commodity, crude oil.

It noted that this would be the worst economic setback in 30 years for Africa’s largest economy, after a negative economic growth of 1.51 per cent in 2016.

According to the IMF Chief Economist and Research Director, Gita Gopinath, the impending global recession would be the worst since the Great Depression between 1929 and 1932 when the advanced economies shrank by 16 per cent.

While Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to shrink by 3.4 per cent and land her in another recession, the Fund’s projected outlook for Africa’s most advanced economy (South Africa) is even worse at 5.8 per cent, from a 2019 growth of 0.2 per cent.

Nigeria was hoping to improve on her 2.2 per cent 2019 growth rate before the advent of the Coronavirus pandemic which saw the global oil price of petroleum tumbling. In fact, while oil prices were taking a bashing (no thanks to the muscle flexing between Russia and Saudi Arabia), the COVID-19 pandemic simply aggravated the situation. Currently, North Sea Brent crude is reported to be trading at USD 31.48 per barrel while Western Texas Intermediate sells for around USD17.75 per barrel. OPEC Basket is USD12.22.

To say that Nigerians did not see this coming will be the height of insincerity as there had been suggestions to nearly every administration to diversify the nation’s economy as to move the country away from its over dependence on petroleum as main revenue earner.

The Tide is deeply troubled that this gloomy projection is coming at a time when the average Nigerian is wishing that the trauma of the 2016 recession would soon be over and for things to return to normal.

The effects of job losses, high cost of living, border closure, herder–farmer clashes and the rising crime rate had led to a worsening of the nation’s misery.

We are also not unaware of the latest warning by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in which Nigeria was listed as one of the 10 countries that would soon experience severe famine of biblical proportion.

With these projections indicating impending national calamities, we fear that the government and, indeed, Nigerians hardly have the time to make any meaningful preparations.

Already, the USD 57 per barrel crude oil benchmark in the 2020 budget has been reviewed downward, even as today’s oil price still makes nonsense of that review. Also, capital expenditure has been severely downsized. This is even as the nation’s USD 1.5 billion debt servicing pledges have become impracticable and need to be renegotiated.

Inflation rate has already entered double-digit while the steady depletion of the external reserve piles pressure on the naira’s worth. What’s more, with COVID-19 came the adoption of national and interstate border closures as part of containment measures. The intra-city lockdowns that also followed led to a halt in economic activities with the attendant negative effects on Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The nation may therefore begin to reconsider redenominating her currency as was successfully done by Ghana some years ago, after decades of economic doldrums. Debt forgiveness is already out of any consideration for Nigeria because she is no longer in the world’s list of Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs), especially since after rebasing her economy in 2013 and emerging as the largest economy in Africa. She is now considered a middle income nation.

Efforts should be geared to better manage the nation’s available income. This period should be likened to a war situation when emphasis should be reduced in infrastructural development, rather efforts should focus on amassing weapons to attack the common enemy which in this case comprises Coronavirus, corruption, misery, hunger, climate change, among others.

There is no doubt that COVID-19 lockdowns have eroded whatever savings that were available for investment to the Micro, Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (MSMEs) in the country. In fact, some have had to convert their present stocks of goods for their daily consumption and survival. And this renders a serious blow to the nation’s GDP.

We commend the IMF for, as usual, alerting most vulnerable countries like Nigeria on the difficult times ahead. We also believe that, as it had always done in the past, the Fund will follow this up with a list of some necessary steps that need be taken by the government in order to curtail the extent of these difficulties.

And to the government, the call for a resort to mechanized agriculture and massive food storage has never been more expedient for a country of about 200 million people than now.