Oil & Energy
Global Energy Advisory: What Does 2018 Hold For Oil Markets?
Oil prices look to be ending the year on a high with WTI breaking $60 on Friday morning and Brent climbing towards the $67 mark. Analysts are now looking towards the New Year, with opinion divided on whether oil markets can maintain this upwards momentum.
Oil prices are set to close out the year up more than 11 percent, hitting their highest level since 2015. However, the road to higher prices was rocky. In the first half of the year, the OPEC cuts appeared to have little effect, and oil prices gyrated. But the cuts started to take a large bite out of inventories in the third quarter and the price rally ensued. Other notable developments included the return of geopolitics as a market mover, with outages in Libya, Iraq, the North Sea and Canada all contributing to higher prices. U.S. shale also came roaring back in 2017, and those production gains are expected to continue into next year. Looking forward, there is disagreement among market analysts about where prices go from here. Some view oil as overpriced, with a price correction looming. Others see oil prices grinding higher as 2018 wears on due to falling inventories.
U.S. oil production unexpectedly falls. The EIA reported a drop in U.S. oil production, with last week’s output falling by 35,000 bpd. Also, crude inventories fell by a robust 4.6 million barrels for the week ending on December 22, although gasoline inventories ticked up again. The dip in oil production could very well be a one-off anomaly, but the report added some bullish momentum to oil on the final trading day of the year. WTI hovered at the $60-per-barrel mark with a few hours left in 2017.
Barclays: Oil set for price correction. Barclay’s analysts argue that oil prices are due for a correction, citing several reasons that point to a coming downturn. Investors are overstretched with bullish bets on oil futures, exposing the market to a snap back in the other direction. Also, China’s economy is expected to slow in 2018, raising the risk of weaker-than-expected demand. Plus, oil supply is rising in the U.S., Brazil and Canada, among other countries. Inventories could start to build again in 2018, slowing the rate of rebalancing. Barclays notes that there are plenty of reasons why their forecast could be wrong, but they predict lower prices in the near-term.
Trump could kill Iran nuclear deal in January. President Trump faces a series of deadlines in January that offer him the opportunity to tear up the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Every three months the President has to recertify the agreement, and Trump will have that decision before him again in about two weeks. “[I]n the event we are not able to reach a solution working with Congress and our allies, then the agreement will be terminated,” Trump said in October. The President could restore sanctions on Iran, which could lead to an escalation of conflict. Politico reports that Trump’s top national security team opposes such a move and hopes to convince the President not to go down that road.
Trump scrapping fracking rule. The Trump administration is rolling back Obama-era rules on hydraulic fracturing on public lands. The 2015 proposed rules had not yet taken effect, and were delayed by a Wyoming court. They would have required the disclosure of chemicals used in fracking and also set standards on well design. The oil and gas industry applauded the decision to scrap them.
Cold weather boosts coal and natural gas prices. The rate of coal burning in U.S. power plants hit a three-year high as the eastern half of the country found itself in a deep freeze. Coal temporarily reclaimed the top spot among power sources in the U.S., a position it held for decades until natural gas overtook it a few years ago. Coal and natural gas prices are up on higher demand for heating, with regional price spikes particularly acute. New England saw a spot gas price surge to $35/MMBtu. The development could add a bit of momentum to the Energy Department’s proposal to offer support for coal and nuclear power. Still, it should be noted that Henry Hub prices, while up a bit, remained below $3/MMBtu. The price spike is confined to areas in the northeast, and in any event, natural gas production is expected to continue to rise.
Explosion at Venezuelan refinery. Reuters reported that an explosion hit a unit at Venezuela’s largest refining complex, injuring two workers. The incident highlights the deteriorating state of Venezuela’s oil assets, as state-owned PDVSA lacks the cash to keep up with maintenance.
Libya pipeline explosion. An explosion hit a Libyan pipeline earlier this week, knocking about 70,000 to 100,000 bpd offline. The incident provided a lift to oil prices, and it also highlights the risk to supply from some unstable countries. Libya managed to restore output to about 1 mb/d this year after several years of producing only a fraction of that amount.
Russia looks to shale. Russia is starting to look at its shale potential, and large reserves are thought to be located in the Bazhenov shale in Western Siberia. In fact, it is thought to be the largest shale formation in the world. Up until now, Russia has relied on conventional sources, but Russian companies are starting to move into shale. “The Bazhenov is a huge prize,” says Alexei Vashkevich, Gazprom Neft’s exploration director, according to the WSJ. Output from Russia’s shale is not expected before the mid-2020s, but it could be crucial to offsetting declines from mature oil fields.
In our Numbers Report, we take a look at some of the most important metrics and indicators in the world of energy from the past week. Find out more by clicking here.
Thanks for reading and we’ll see you next week.
Tom Kool
Oil & Energy
Savannah To Take Over Stubb Creek Field in Nigeria
Savannah Energy PLC has signed agreements to take over Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Nigeria Ltd. (SIPEC), the British company’s co-venturer in the Stubb Creek oil and gas field in Nigeria, for $61.5 million.
SIPEC owns a 49 percent interest in the proven onshore asset in the Akwa Ibom State, which sits on the southern coast of the Western African country.
Savannah affiliate Universal Energy Resources Ltd. operates Stubb Creek with a 51 percent interest.
London-based Savannah, in a Press Release, said it has now inked separate share purchase agreements (SPAs) with the Chinese and Nigerian owners of SIPEC—Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corp. (SIPC) and Jagal Ventures Ltd., the completion of which will result in Savannah taking full ownership of Stubb Creek, SIPEC’s principal asset.
“The SIPC SPA will see Savannah Energy SC Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of Savannah) acquire a 75 percent equity interest in SIPEC for cash consideration of US$52 million, payable on completion and subject to customary adjustments for a transaction of this nature from 1 September 2023.
“The Jagal SPA will see Savannah Energy SC Limited acquire a 25 percent equity interest in SIPEC for cash consideration of US$7.5 million (without adjustment), payable on completion, plus US$2 million in deferred cash consideration payable in eight equal quarterly installments post-completion”, it stated.
Savannah simultaneously released an independent analysis showing gross proven and probable (2P) oil and condensate reserves of 11.9 million stock tank barrels (MMstb), as well as a gross best contingent gas estimate (2C) of 515.3 billion cubic feet (Bcf), in Stubb Creek as of January
It also holds an 80 percent interest in Accugas Midstream Business, which owns and operates the Uquo central gas processing facility and 260-kilometer (161.6 miles) pipeline network. The processing facility has a declared capacity of 200 million cubic feet a day.
SIPEC meanwhile had an estimated 8.1 MMstb of 2P oil reserves and 227 Bcf of 2C gas as of yearend, while its oil production is estimated to average 1,400 barrels per day (Kbpd) this year.
“Savannah’s Reserve and Resource base will increase by approximately 46 MMboe [million barrels of oil equivalent] following completion of the SIPEC Acquisition.
“It is anticipated that, within 12 months following completion of the SIPEC Acquisition, Stubb Creek gross production should increase by approximately 2.7 Kbopd to approximately 4.7 Kbopd through implementation of a de-bottlenecking program”, it said.
Oil & Energy
NNPCL Lists Transparency, Accountability, Others, As Transformation Drivers
The Executive Vice President, Gas, Power and New Energy, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd, Olalekan Ogunleye, has identified transparency, accountability, research, technology and innovation as key drivers of the ongoing transformation in the company.
Ogunleye disclosed this while speaking during a Panel Session hosted by the NNPC Ltd at the ongoing 2024 CERAWeek Conference in Houston, the United States.
Ogunleye, whose session addressed the theme, “Africa’s Energy Future: Access, Investment & Sustainability”, said under the current leadership of Mr. Mele Kyari, the Company has institutionalized the use of modern technology to drive its operations, a development that has created tremendous value for the company in its quest to compete with its global peers.
He said with the coming of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021, NNPC Ltd has today transformed into an integrated commercial entity that is focused on transparency and accountability, two core values that are vital towards the Company’s quest to float an Initial Public Offer (IPO) at the stock exchange.
“Over the last five years, the NNPC Ltd has been pushing the agenda of transparency, accountability and performance excellence. I am glad to say that we are setting very high standards, and this is a journey that we are all committed to going forward”, Ogunleye stated.
He further observed that transparency and accountability have a commercial component to them, because they can make any organisation attractive to its partners and potential investors.
He said currently, the NNPC Ltd is working assiduously to become IPO-ready, stressing that once that is done, the IPO would be phenomenal and successful.
Ogunleye, who described the future as exciting for the NNPC Ltd, said as the biggest energy company in Africa with the biggest resources and largest market, the Company remained committed to delivering value to its shareholders by relentlessly improving its processes in line with global best standards.
He said gas would continue to be an important resource for Africa because it is the surest tool for economic development and for delivering better living standards for the teeming population on the continent.
Ogunleye called on all gas players to sustain the advocacy for gas as a major energy source that will be utilised to develop the economic and industrial fortunes of the continent.
According to him, gas is a top priority for NNPC Ltd because the Company is at the forefront of Nigeria’s gas commercialization efforts and flare elimination.
“Gas has come to stay. It is going to be part of the energy mix for us in the long term. We shall continue to be at the forefront of accelerating gas development and commercialisation in Nigeria”, he added.
Oil & Energy
Africa’s Energy Leap From Fossil Fuels To Renewable Powerhouse
The African continent is at a critical turning point. The region’s energy demand is set to skyrocket, just as climate change is starting to impact local livelihoods in earnest.
African countries are among those most vulnerable to climate change despite having contributed the least to the climate crisis.
Faced by a sharp population growth, and a need to develop local and national economies, Africa also must simultaneously contend with the urgent imperative to keep emissions in check. It’s a tall order.
Indeed, Africa is a perfect example of what is known as the energy trilemma: the tricky problem of creating enough energy while also keeping that energy sustainable and affordable.
What makes Africa’s situation so unique and so dire is the intense scale of each of these trends. The continent has some of the most underdeveloped energy grids on the globe, and is also facing the biggest population boom anywhere on Earth.
Africa has the fastest growing population in the world, expected to double between now and 2050. This means that, by midcentury, a quarter of the global population will be in sub-Saharan Africa. This presents a massive energy and infrastructure gap in the coming decades.
Currently, about 600 million people across Africa completely lack access to electricity. Furthermore, for a great many of those who do have access, it is not reliable or stable, as power failures and rolling blackouts are a common occurrence.
Such intermittent electricity is common in urban areas, while in rural areas establishing any form of grid connectivity can present a major challenge.
African energy demand is expected to increase by a third over the next decade as sub-Saharan Africa grows, develops, and industrializses.
To meet this demand, power generation capacity will have to increase by a factor of 10 by 2065. But to advance toward such goals without breaking climate pledges and more generally counteracting global progress toward decarbonization, Africa has to “leapfrog” over what is normally the next phase of development in a poor nation’s economic journey.
Unlike other nations in history which have enriched themselves and developed their economy by burning massive amounts of cheap and abundant fossil fuels with abandon, countries developing now do not have the same option.
Luckily, Africa is a goldmine of potential renewable energy resources.
“The continent is extremely rich in natural gas (considered to be a stepping stone away from dirtier fossil fuels like coal and oil), as well as abundant sunshine, wind, and highly sought-after rare Earth minerals such as lithium and cobalt which are essential components of renewable technologies including photovoltaic solar panels and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage”, Oilprice reported in July of 2023.
It’s just a matter of securing sufficient investment, fostering a supportive political environment, and establishing trans-national intra-African energy sharing agreements to be able to tap all of that green energy potential. If managed properly, clean energy could benefit the African economy enormously while helping to solve the riddle of the energy trilemma.
According to a new database of planned and installed renewable energy capacity across Africa, the continent is well on its way to achieving its ambitious energy “leapfrogging” goals.
In fact, figures show that if all planned additions are carried out without issue, some African nations could totally decarbonize by midcentury.
The Renewable Power Plant Database Africa, built by a renewable energy scientific modelling team from Rwanda and Germany, is the first comprehensive overview of renewable energy plants in Africa to include key details such as their geographic coordinates, construction status and capacity (in megawatts), allowing for more accurate and sophisticated modelling.
Such modelling shows that some of the countries with the most advanced renewable energy sectors and plans (such as Nigeria and Zimbabwe) already have enough clean energy projects lined up to conceivably transition away from fossil fuels as soon as 2050.
Furthermore, 76% of Africa’s electricity demand could be supplied by renewable sources by just 2040 in a scenario in which all clean energy plants in the pipeline are built as planned, and existing hydro-, solar and wind power plants are used to their full capacity.
This 76% would be composed of 82% hydropower, 11% solar power and 7% wind power.
However, the heavy dependence on hydropower in the short term is not a good long-term solution as periods of drought pose serious energy security risks.
“We conclude that combining the advantages of hydropower with wind and solar would be a more sustainable alternative to hydropower alone”, the Database team states, adding, “And that hybrid solutions would be the best option’.
Despite Africa’s many challenges, it stands to be one of the most important players in the global energy industry going forward. Its climatic and ecological characteristics and relatively low population density compared to other key regions gives it a major advantage as a hydro, wind, and solar powerhouse.
If built out according to plan, its clean energy output will be formidable. And as the continent develops, its massive workforce could make it a clean energy manufacturing source to reckon with.
Zaremba writes for oilprice.com concessional and semi-concessional.
By: Haley Zaremba
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