Oil & Energy
‘We Need Meters For Daily Oil Output Accounting’
A National Assembly member, Senator Stella Oduah, has urged Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), to put adequate metering system in place, to enable Nigerians to know the country’s exact daily oil production.
Oduah, who is the Vice Chairman, Senate Committee on Women Affairs, told newsmen in Abuja that a metering facility that also ensure leakages in the petroleum industry were blocked.
She expressed displeasure over NNPC’s inability to procure the device to adequately keep inventory of oil production in the country, many decades after it commenced.
According to her, it is shameful that several decades after oil was discovered in the country, it has yet to get a proper metering system.
The lawmaker said, “given the fact that crude is the mainstay of the economy, it is important to get adequate metering system to ensure accountability.
“I think it is a problem we should be ashamed to be discussing because in my view, they are problems that NNPC with all sense of sincerity, can easily resolve.
“I was employed in NNPC in 1983 and I was a member of a committee for commercialisation and reconstruction of NNPC at that time.
“The major issue we discussed, investigated and came up with solution to, was on how to ensure that we have adequate measurement of crude by having metering system in all the terminals.
“But, why is that still an issue to be discussed several years after?
“How do you not put in equipment that will give you accurate measurement of your product and this is the product that forms the basis of our budgeting?
“This is the crux of everything we do in this nation and every year, for the past 30 years and more, we are still talking about measurement as an issue.
“Even if we want to mirror it against any of the oil producing nation like U.S., UAE and others, it is just a simple problem,” she said.
Oduah said, “NNPC should be sincere to tell us why they are reluctant, and if not for interest, why will you not want to have proper measuring equipment on your terminals.
“How much are the equipment? For me, it is upsetting.”
She explained that the equipment would enable Nigerians to know the flow of crude, “the quantity being exported, from which pipeline, where it is being loaded to and the volume loaded”.
She added that the equipment would help to determine the back-up stock as well as challenges to be attended to, including the switching off of pipelines in the event of vandalism.
The legislator said that everything about tracking daily oil production could be done in NNPC offices by its officials, but that “they have to put in the equipment, they have to have the ICT.
“You cannot blindly stay there and wait for the operators to give you feedback. We do not know what we have because the NNPC and the DPR do not know.”
On whether passage and assent to the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) will tackle the problem, she said that it would go a long way in finding lasting solution not only to the metering problem, but for other challenges.
On the role of the National Assembly in ensuring that the right equipment are put in place, Oduah said that several reports that, emanated from the assembly on the matter, indicted the NNPC.
She, however, assured that the 8th Senate would not rest on its oars in making sure that the right thing was done.
She called on the Federal Government to put the refineries in proper shape for adequate production of finished products in the country.
The lawmaker said that Nigeria had all it took to do turnaround maintenance for the refineries while getting value for money rather than exporting crude at cheap rate and importing finished product at exorbitant price.
“We do not get value for money. Nobody does what we do. If we put money together and do turnaround maintenance for the refineries, it will help all of us, and that is what we ought to do.
“The NNPC knows that what they are doing is wrong. We have equipment, we have an experienced workforce. In the 80s and 90s, the refineries were working.
“If one refinery is shut down, the others will be working, but now nobody thinks about rehabilitating those refineries.
“What are you going to do with all those experiences that these people have acquired? We were told then, that we had the best refinery technicians, the best refinery engineers,” she said.
On calls by some experts for establishment of modern refineries with better capacities, Oduah said while that was necessary, old ones should be put to use while plans were on for the new ones.
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.