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Nigeria, Others May Lose $10bn To Political Tensions – IMF
The International Monetary Fund has said Nigeria could lose an estimated $10bn of foreign direct investment and official development assistance inflows to geo-political tensions.
The IMF in its country focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, released on Monday, said the figure is about a half per cent of the nation’s annual Gross Domestic Product.
The Washington-based lender said, “The losses could be compounded if capital flows between trade blocs were cut-off because of geo-political tensions. The region could lose an estimated $10bn of foreign direct investments and official development assistance inflow is about half a percent of GDP a year based on an average 2017–19 estimate). The reduction in FDI, in the long run, could also hinder much-needed technology transfer.”
IMF further said that if geopolitical tensions were to escalate, countries could be hit by higher import prices or even lose access to key export markets.
It added that about half of Sub-Saharan Africa’s value of global trade could be impacted.
The Washington-based lender also said that Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world split into two isolated trading blocs centered on China or the United States and the European Union.
The IMF added the region’s economy could experience a permanent decline of up to four percent of its gross domestic product after 10 years.
“Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world were to split into two isolated trading blocs centered around China or the United States and the European Union. In this severe scenario, sub-Saharan African economies could experience a permanent decline of up to four per cent of the real Gross Domestic Product after 10 years. According to our estimates, these are losses larger than what most countries experienced during the global financial crisis.”
According to IMF, economic and trade alliances with new economic partners, predominantly China, have benefited the region.
According to the report, economic trade alliances have also made countries reliant on imports of food and energy more susceptible to global shocks, including disruptions from the surge in trade restrictions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It added, “For countries looking to restructure their debt, deepening geo-economic fragmen¬tation could also worsen coordination problems among creditors. The region would fare better if only the US/EU cut ties with Russia and sub-Saharan African countries continue to trade freely. In this scenario trade flows would be diverted towards the rest of the world, creating opportunities for new partnerships, and possibly boosting intra-regional trade.”
However, IMF said that because some African countries benefit from access to new export markets and cheaper imports, the region would not incur a GDP loss.
It added that oil exporters supplying energy to Europe could even gain. IMF called for strengthening the African Continental Free Trade Area to better manage these shocks properly.
It added, “To better manage shocks, countries need to build resilience. This can be done by strengthening the ongoing regional trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area, which will require reducing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, strengthening efficiency in customs, leveraging digitalization, and closing the infrastructure gaps. Deepening domestic financial markets can also broaden sources of financing and lower the volatility associated with relying too much on foreign inflows. To take advantage of the potential shifts in trade and FDI flows, countries in the region can try to identify and nurture sectors that may benefit from trade diversion like energy. Commodity exporters in the region could potentially displace much of Russia’s energy market share in Europe.”
IMF advised countries in the region to rely on trade promotion agencies to help identify potential opportunities and build the necessary skills and capacity for exports.
“Countries can also rely on trade promotion agencies to help identify potential opportunities, build the necessary skills and capacity for exports, and eventually re-orient production to take advantage of new trade flows. Improving the business environment by lowering entry, regulatory, and tax barriers could also help. What the exact outcomes will be from fragmentation and polarization, and whether these trends will continue are uncertain. What is clear, however, are multilateral institutions will need to continue to facilitate dialogue among nations to promote economic integration and cooperation.”
Rivers State Head of Service, Dr (Mrs) Inyingi Brown, has called on rural communities in the State to embrace the Rural Access and Agricultural marketing project (RAAMP) with a view to improving their living conditions.
This follows the ongoing sensitization campaign by the State Project Implementation Unit (SPIU) visits to Degema, Abonnema, Afam headquarters of Degema, Akuku Toru and Oyigbo Etche and Omuma local government areas respectively.
Dr Brown who was represented by the Deputy Director, Special Duties in her office, Mrs Dein Akpanah, said RAAMP was initiated by the Federal Government and World Bank to economically empower rural dwellers.s
She said the World Bank understands the plights of rural farmers and traders in the State, and therefore came up with the programme to address them.
According to her, RAAMP will improve the conditions of farmers, traders and fishermen, and therefore, behoves on every rural communities in the State to embrace the programme.
The Head of Service also said the programme would support the youths to be gainfully employed while bridges and roads will be built to link farms and fishing settlements.
Also speaking, the State project coordinator, Mr Joshua Kpakol, said the programme has the potential of creating millionaires among farmers and fishermen in the State.
Kpakol who was represented by Engr. Sam Tombari, said RAAMP would help farmers and fishermen to preserve their produce.
According to him, the project will build cold rooms and Silos for preservation of crops and fishes while access roads will also be created to link farmers and fishermen to the market.
He, however, warned them against any act that will lead to the suspension of the projects by the World Bank.
Kpakol particularly warned against acts such as kidnapping, marching ground, gender based violence and child labour, adding that such acts if they occur may lead to the cancellation of the project by the World Bank.
During the visit to Oyigbo local government area, Mr Joshua Kpakol, said the team was there to let them know how they will benefit from the Raamp.
The coordinator who was personally at Oyigbo said the World Bank introduced the project to check food insecurity in the State.
He said already 19 states in Nigeria are already benefitting from the project and called on them to embrace the project.
Meanwhile, stakeholders in the three local government areas have commended the World Bank for including their areas in the project.
They, however, complained over the incessant attacks by pirates on their waterways.
At Degema, King Agolia of Ke kingdom said land was a major problem in the kingdom.
King Agolia represented by High Chief Alpheus Damiebi said many indigenes of the kingdom are willing to go into farming but are handicapped by lack of land.
Also at Degema, the representative of the Omu Onyam Ekeim of Usokun Degema kingdom, Osoabo Isaac, said Degema has embraced the programme but needed more information on the implementation of the programme.
Similarly, while High Chief Precious Abadi advised that the project should not be narrowed to only crop farming, a community women leader, Mrs Orikinge Eremabo Otto, called for the construction of cold rooms in all fishing settlements in the area.
At Abonnema, Mr Diamond Kio linked the problem of the area to incessant piracy along waterways.
He also expressed fears over the possibility of the project being hijacked by politicians.
Also at Abonnema, a stakeholder, Ikiriko Kelvin, called on the World Bank to design an agricultural project that will suit the riverine environment, while at Oyigbo, HRH Eze Boniface Akawo expressed satisfaction with the project.
John Bibor
The political mudslinging between the Senate leadership and Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan continued yesterday as the Senate named Senator Aniekan Bassey as the new Chairman of the Committee on Diaspora and Non-Governmental Organisations.
Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, announced the appointment during yesterday’s plenary, confirming Bassey’s replacement of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, who is currently on suspension.
Akpoti-Uduaghan was reassigned to the Diaspora and NGOs Committee in February after she was removed as Chair of the Senate Committee on Local Content during a minor reshuffle.
Bassey is the senator representing Akwa Ibom North-East Senatorial District.
Although no reason was given for her removal yesterday, the change is believed to be connected to her unresolved suspension.
In May, Justice Binta Nyako of the Federal High Court ordered her reinstatement and directed her to tender an apology to the Senate.
However, the Senate has insisted it has not received a certified true copy of the court judgment.
Akpoti-Uduaghan who represents Kogi Central, has yet to resume her legislative duties despite a recent court ruling that voided her suspension.
In a televised interview on Tuesday, Akpoti-Uduaghan said she was awaiting the Certified True Copy of the judgment before officially returning to plenary, citing legal advice and respect for institutional process.
Although the Federal High Court described her suspension as “excessive and unconstitutional”, a legal opinion dated July 5 and attributed to the Senate’s counsel, Paul Daudu (SAN), argued that the ruling lacked any binding directive to enforce her reinstatement.
Akpoti-Uduaghan, one of only three female senators in the current assembly, said the continued delay in allowing her return was not only a denial of her mandate but also a blow to democratic representation.
“By keeping me out of the chambers, the Senate is not just silencing Kogi Central, it’s denying Nigerian women and children representation. We are only three female senators now, down from eight,” she said.