Editorial
Subsidy Removal Without Domestic Refining?

In the 2023 fiscal document presented before the joint sitting of the two chambers of Nigeria’s National Assembly, President Muhammadu Buhari proposed that the subsidy regime would end with his administration on May 29, 2023. However, not a few lawmakers vowed to extend the terminal date for the subsidy removal to the end of 2023.
The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, disclosed that the Federal Government paid N18.397 billion in subsidies per day. The minister also stated that N6.210 trillion had been disbursed as a fuel subsidy to independent oil marketers from 2013 to 2021. This declaration has elicited reactions from some quarters who feel the subsidy figures are falsified, while others say the subsidy regime is unsustainable as it is hurting the country’s economy.
Recently, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) insisted it was opposed to the removal of subsidy on petrol, if the country failed to refine the product. According to the association, with the government importing premium motor spirit (petrol) consumed in the country, removing the over N3.5 trillion subsidy would expose Nigerians to arbitrary pricing.
The Tide remains steadfast in this long-canvassed position that while the subsidy in its present form is destructive and unsustainable, domestic self-sufficiency in refining is the only lasting solution to product availability, price stability and maximisation of the benefits of crude. It defies logic that Nigeria, a leading producer of crude oil, bankrupts itself by importing and subsidising refined petroleum products.
It needs not be said that if the subsidy on PMS is withdrawn, it will plunge several Nigerians into extreme poverty. Recall that Nigeria has maintained the infamous title of ‘World Poverty Capital’ according to the World Bank since 2016. The World Bank data had shown that four in every 10 Nigerians lived below the poverty line of $1.9 per day. Sadly, efforts by the present government to address the rising challenges of poverty through the National Social Investment Programme meant to improve the standard of living of the average Nigerian has yielded no positive result for a project that gulps N500 billion annually.
Next, the current inflation rate of 21.82 per cent is believed will certainly drive more Nigerians below the poverty line by the end of 2023. Globally, economies are devising measures and approaches to cushion the devastating effect of rising prices on the disposable income of their citizens. However, the present federal administration has failed to assist impoverished and vulnerable Nigerians.
Germany, Austria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Rwanda, Ghana, and a few other economies are giving out financial incentives to households, cost-of-living allowances, unemployment benefits, an adjustment in wages and salaries, and the roll-out of public transport measures to reduce the impact of inflation. But the Nigerian government has been insensitive to the plight of the citizens, with much attention channelled towards the just-concluded 2023 general election.
Unemployment in the country increases by geometric proportion. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected the unemployment rate in Africa’s most populous nation to rise to 37 per cent in 2023. This means that the projected unemployment rate is about four percentage points higher than the National Bureau of Statistics data of 33.3 per cent as of 2020. Additionally, many state governors cannot pay the current minimum wage of N30,000 following financial constraints.
Marketers and other groups in the downstream sector of the Nigerian petroleum industry have said that fuel prices may hit N750 per litre should the petroleum subsidy be removed. Being an OPEC member country, it is a shame for Nigeria to remain the only member that imports over 90 per cent of its refined petroleum needs. The country has no reason not to return its domestic refining. The precipitous removal of the fuel subsidy without making strategic plans or giving particular attention to domestic refining is tantamount to strangulating hand-to-mouth Nigerians.
Nigeria’s energy crisis is self-inflicted. At home, the subsidy thrives on opacity, corruption, abandonment of domestic refining, and a shutting out of the private sector in the downstream oil and gas sector. On the international front, Russia’s war on Ukraine has triggered a jump in prices. Rather than reap a windfall, however, Nigeria’s indefensible reliance on importation is damaging its brittle economy.
Before the fuel subsidy is removed, it will be appropriate for the country to go all out to resuscitate its four comatose refineries and embark on building new ones to mitigate the consequences of the withdrawal. The poser here is: Why are Nigeria’s four ailing refineries yet to be resuscitated? Over the years, previous administrations and the present one have made many attempts to restore those moribund refineries. Unfortunately, they were all in vain, since some avaricious Nigerians sabotaged that much-needed valiant effort.
Certainly, domestic refining will firm up the naira; the total removal of the petrol subsidy will precipitate an economic recession. They should only withdraw it in phases accompanied by a vigorous programme to promote private refineries with incentives, privatisation, and the creation of an investment-friendly environment. The establishment of modular refineries should be approved. These refineries have capacities ranging from 1,000 to 30,000 barrels per day.
Our leaders may just be banking on the coming on stream of Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day refinery now undergoing finishing touches in Lagos and BUA group’s oil refineries. Dangote industry said in January that the refinery would come on stream before the end of Buhari’s administration. Perhaps this is one of the ways Nigeria would escape the worst case scenario painted by industry watchers. The truth is, there is no alternative to domestic self-sufficiency in refining; that should be the urgent national priority.
Editorial
Benue Killings: Beyond Tinubu’s Visit

The recent massacre in Yelewata, Benue State, ranks among Nigeria’s deadliest attacks of
2025. While official figures put the death toll at 59, media reports and Amnesty International estimate between 100 and 200 fatalities. This atrocity extends a decade-long pattern of violence in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, where Beacon Security data records 1,043 deaths in Benue alone between May 2023 and May 2025.
President Tinubu’s visit on 18 June—four days after the 14 June attack—has drawn sharp criticism for its lateness. This delay echoes a history of inadequate responses, with Human Rights Watch documenting similar inaction in Plateau and Kaduna states since 2013, fuelling a culture of impunity. The attack lasted over two hours without meaningful security intervention, despite claims of swift action.
The violence bore hallmarks of genocide, with survivors recounting systematic house burnings and executions. More than 2.2 million people have been displaced in the region since 2019 due to comparable attacks. Data show Benue’s agricultural output falls by 0.21 per cent in crops and 0.31 per cent in livestock for every 1 per cent rise in violence.
Security forces continue to underperform. No arrests were made following the Easter attacks in April (56 killed) or May’s Gwer West massacre (42 killed). During his visit, Tinubu questioned publicly why no suspects had been detained four days after Yelewata, highlighting entrenched accountability failures.
The roots of the conflict are complex, with climate change pushing northern herders south and 77 per cent of Benue’s population reliant on agriculture. A Tiv community leader described the violence as “calculated land-grabbing” rather than mere clashes, with over 500 deaths recorded since 2019.
Government interventions have largely fallen short. The 2018 federal task force and 2025 Forest Guards initiative failed to curb violence. Tinubu’s newly announced committee of ex-governors and traditional rulers has been met with scepticism given the litany of past unkept promises.
The economic fallout is severe. Benue’s status as Nigeria’s “food basket” is crumbling as farms are destroyed and farmers displaced. This worsens the nation’s food crisis, with hunger surges in 2023-2024 directly linked to farming disruptions caused by insecurity.
Citizens demanding justice have been met with force; protesters faced police tear gas, and the State Assembly conceded total failure in safeguarding lives, admitting that the governor, deputy, and 32 lawmakers had all neglected their constitutional responsibilities.
The massacre has drawn international condemnation. Pope Leo XIV decried the “terrible massacre,” while the UN called for an investigation. The hashtag “200 Nigerians” trended worldwide on X, with many contrasting Nigeria’s slow response to India’s swift action following a plane crash with similar fatalities.
Nigeria’s centralised security system is clearly overwhelmed. A single police force is tasked with covering 36 states and 774 local government areas for a population exceeding 200 million. Between 2021 and 2023 alone, 29,828 killings and 15,404 kidnappings were recorded nationally. Proposals for state police, floated since January 2025, remain stalled.
Other populous nations offer alternative models. Canada’s provincial police, India’s state forces, and Indonesia’s municipal units demonstrate the effectiveness of decentralised policing. Nigeria’s centralised structure creates intelligence and response gaps, worsened by the distance—both physical and bureaucratic—from Abuja to affected communities.
The immediate aftermath is dire: 21 IDP camps in Benue are overwhelmed, and a humanitarian crisis is deepening. The State Assembly declared three days of mourning (18-20 June), but survivors lack sufficient medical aid. Tragically, many of those killed were already displaced by earlier violence.
A lasting solution requires a multi-pronged approach, including targeted security deployment, regulated grazing land, and full enforcement of Benue’s 2017 Anti-Open Grazing Law. The National Economic Council’s failure to prioritise state police in May 2025 represents a missed chance for reform.
Without decisive intervention, trends suggest conditions will worsen. More than 20,000 Nigerians have been killed and 13,000 kidnapped nationwide in 2025 alone. As Governor Hyacinth Alia stressed during Tinubu’s visit, state police may be the only viable path forward. All 36 states have submitted proposals supporting decentralisation—a crucial step towards breaking Nigeria’s vicious cycle of violence.
Editorial
Responding To Herders’ Threat In Rivers

Editorial
Democracy Day: So Far…

Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999 marked a watershed moment in the nation’s political history. After enduring nearly 16 years of successive military dictatorships, Nigerians embraced a new era of civil governance with the inauguration of President Olusegun Obasanjo on May 29, 1999. Since then, the country has sustained a democratic system for 26 years. But, this democratic journey has been a complex mix of progress and persistent challenges.
The formal recognition of June 12 as Democracy Day in 2018 by former President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledged a long-standing injustice. The annulment of the 1993 presidential election, Nigeria’s freest, betrayed the democratic aspirations of millions. That it took decades to honour this date reflects the nation’s complex relationship with its democratic memory.
One of the most momentous successes of Nigeria’s democracy has been the uninterrupted civilian rule over the last two and a half decades. The country has witnessed seven general elections, with power transferring peacefully among different political parties. This is particularly notable considering that prior to 1999, no civilian government had completed a full term without military intervention. The peaceful transitions in 2007, 2015, and 2023 are testaments to Nigeria’s evolving democratic maturity.
Electoral participation, while uneven, has also reflected a level of democratic engagement. In 2003, voter turnout stood at about 69 per cent, but this figure dropped to approximately 34.75 per cent in 2023, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Although the declining turnout raises concerns, it also highlights the increasing expectations of the electorate, who demand credible and transparent elections.
Another area of progress is the growth of a vibrant and free press. Nigerian media has played a crucial role in holding governments accountable and fostering public discourse. Investigative journalism and civil society activism have exposed corruption and human rights abuses. The rise of social media has further expanded the democratic space, enabling young Nigerians to mobilise and advocate for change, as evidenced by the 2020 #EndSARS protests.
Judicial independence has seen mixed results. On one hand, the judiciary has occasionally demonstrated resilience, such as in landmark rulings that overturned fraudulent elections or curtailed executive excesses. On the other hand, allegations of political interference and corruption within the judiciary persist, undermining public confidence in the legal system’s impartiality.
Nigeria’s democracy has also facilitated the decentralisation of power through the federal system. State governments now wield some autonomy, allowing for experimentation in governance and service delivery. While this has led to innovative policies in some states, it has also entrenched patronage networks and uneven development across the federation.
Despite these successes, Nigeria’s democratic journey faces formidable problems. Electoral integrity remains a critical concern. Reports from election observers, including those from the European Union and ECOWAS, frequently highlight issues such as vote-buying, ballot box snatching, and violence. The introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and electronic transmission of results in 2023 elections showed promise, but technical glitches and alleged manipulations dampened public trust.
Corruption continues to be a pervasive issue. Nigeria ranks 145th out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, with a score of 25/100. Democratic institutions meant to check graft—such as anti-corruption agencies and the legislature—often struggle due to political interference and weak enforcement mechanisms.
Security challenges have also strained Nigeria’s democracy. Insurgency in the North East, banditry in the North West, separatist agitations in the South East, and herder-farmer conflicts across the Middle Belt have collectively resulted in thousands of deaths and displacements. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2024, Nigeria ranks as the eighth most impacted country by terrorism. The government’s difficulty in ensuring safety erodes public confidence in the state’s capacity and legitimacy.
The economy poses another critical remonstrance. Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita stands at approximately $2,400 as of 2024, with over 40 per cent of the population living below the national poverty line. High unemployment and inflation have fueled discontent and disillusionment with democratic governance, especially among youth. Without addressing economic grievances, the democratic dividend will remain elusive for many Nigerians.
Ethnic and religious divisions further complicate Nigeria’s democratic consolidation. Politicians often exploit identity politics for electoral gains, exacerbating social tensions. Although federal character principles aim to promote inclusiveness, they have also sometimes fostered a quota mentality rather than merit-based appointments.
Gender representation remains inadequate in Nigeria’s democratic institutions. Women occupy less than 10 per cent of seats in the National Assembly, one of the lowest rates globally. Efforts to pass gender parity bills have faced stiff resistance, highlighting deep-seated cultural and institutional barriers to female political participation.
Civil liberties, while constitutionally guaranteed, are under threat. Crackdowns on protesters, restrictions on press freedom, and surveillance of activists reveal an authoritarian streak within the democratic framework. The controversial Twitter ban in 2021 exemplified the country’s willingness to curb digital freedoms, prompting domestic and international criticism.
The political crisis in Rivers State embodies broader democratic struggles. Attempts to control the state through undemocratic means expose weaknesses in federal institutions and the rule of law. Immediate restoration of democratic governance in Rivers State is vital to preserving Nigeria’s democratic integrity and institutional credibility.
Local governments remain under the control of state governors, depriving citizens of grassroots democracy. Last year’s Supreme Court judgment on local government autonomy is promising, but state-level resistance threatens its implementation. Genuine autonomy would bring governance closer to the people and foster democratic innovation.
As we mark Democracy Day, we must honour the sacrifices of Chief M.K.O. Abiola, Kudirat Abiola, Femi Falana, Chief Gani Fawehinmi, Pa Alfred Rewane, President Bola Tinubu, and countless others, who fought for Nigeria’s freedom. As democracy in Nigeria continues to evolve after 26 years, this day should inspire action toward its renewal. With despotism and state failure as real threats, both citizens and leaders must take responsibility—citizens by demanding more, and leaders by delivering. Excuses are no longer acceptable.