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World Bank Lowers Nigeria’s 2023 Economic Growth Forecast To 3.2%
The World Bank has lowered its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2023 to 3.2per cent from 3.3per cent, citing slowdown in global growth, the war in Ukraine, including declining demand from China for commodities produced in Africa.
Citing similar conditions, the World Bank also projected that the Sub-Saharan African region will record a lower economic growth of 3.3per cent in 2022 from 4.1per cent recorded in 2021.
Consequently, the World Bank called on the governments in the Sub-Saharan African region to urgently implement measures to restore macro-economic stability and protect the poor in a context of slow growth, high inflation.
The forecasts were contained in the October edition of the World Bank’s Africa’s Pulse, a biannual analysis of the near-term regional macroeconomic outlook, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Highlighting the growth factors for Nigeria’s economy, the World Bank said: “The Nigerian economy is projected to slow in 2023, down to 3.2per cent (from 3.3per cent) and persist at this level the following year. Growth will be supported mainly by the rebound in private consumption prompted mostly by accommodative monetary policy as inflationary pressures subside.
“Private consumption expenditure is forecast to decrease this year and grow next year. This performance will likely continue in 2024. On the production side, growth in 2023 will be supported by industry (with the growth of 5.1per cent) with the mega-refinery project.”
On its growth forecast for the Sub-Saharan African region, the World Bank said: “Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is set to decelerate from 4.1percent in 2021 to 3.3percent in 2022, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points since April’s Pulse forecast, mainly as a result of a slowdown in global growth, including flagging demand from China for commodities produced in Africa.”
On the factors undermining economic growth in SSA, the World Bank said: “The war in Ukraine is exacerbating already high inflation and weighing on economic activity by depressing both business investments and household consumption. As of July 2022, 29 of 33 countries in SSA with available information had inflation rates over 5percent while 17 countries had double-digit inflation.
“Elevated food prices are causing hardships with severe consequences in one of the world’s most food-insecure regions. Hunger has sharply increased in SSA in recent years driven by economic shocks, violence and conflict, and extreme weather. More than one in five people in Africa suffer from hunger and an estimated 140million people faced acute food insecurity in 2022, up from 120million people in 2021, according to the Global Report on Food Crises 2022 Mid-Year Update.
“The interconnected crises come at a time when the fiscal space required to mount effective government responses is all but gone. In many countries, public savings have been depleted by earlier programmes to counter the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, though resource-rich countries in some cases have benefited from high commodity prices and managed to improve their balance sheet.
“Debt is projected to stay elevated at 58.6percent of GDP in 2022 in SSA. African governments spent 16.5percent of their revenues servicing external debt in 2021, up from less than 5percent in 2010. Eight out of 38 IDA-eligible countries in the region are in debt distress, and 14 are at high risk of joining them. At the same time, high commercial borrowing costs make it difficult for countries to borrow on national and international markets while tightening global financial conditions are weakening currencies and increasing African countries’ external borrowing costs.”
Stressing the need for governments to improve the efficiency of existing resources and to optimize taxes in response to the above challenges, the World Bank added that, “In the agriculture and food sector, for example, governments have the opportunity to protect human capital and climate-proof food production by re-orienting their public spending away from poorly targeted subsidies toward nutrition-sensitive social protection programmes, irrigation works, and research and development are known to have high returns.
“For example, one dollar invested in agricultural research yields, on average, benefits equivalent to $10, while gains from investments in irrigation are also potentially high in SSA. Such reprioritisation maintains the level of spending in a critical sector while raising productivity, building resilience to climate change, and achieving food security for all. Creating a better environment for agribusiness and facilitating intra-regional food trade could also increase long-term food security in a region that is highly dependent on food imports.”
Rivers State Head of Service, Dr (Mrs) Inyingi Brown, has called on rural communities in the State to embrace the Rural Access and Agricultural marketing project (RAAMP) with a view to improving their living conditions.
This follows the ongoing sensitization campaign by the State Project Implementation Unit (SPIU) visits to Degema, Abonnema, Afam headquarters of Degema, Akuku Toru and Oyigbo Etche and Omuma local government areas respectively.
Dr Brown who was represented by the Deputy Director, Special Duties in her office, Mrs Dein Akpanah, said RAAMP was initiated by the Federal Government and World Bank to economically empower rural dwellers.s
She said the World Bank understands the plights of rural farmers and traders in the State, and therefore came up with the programme to address them.
According to her, RAAMP will improve the conditions of farmers, traders and fishermen, and therefore, behoves on every rural communities in the State to embrace the programme.
The Head of Service also said the programme would support the youths to be gainfully employed while bridges and roads will be built to link farms and fishing settlements.
Also speaking, the State project coordinator, Mr Joshua Kpakol, said the programme has the potential of creating millionaires among farmers and fishermen in the State.
Kpakol who was represented by Engr. Sam Tombari, said RAAMP would help farmers and fishermen to preserve their produce.
According to him, the project will build cold rooms and Silos for preservation of crops and fishes while access roads will also be created to link farmers and fishermen to the market.
He, however, warned them against any act that will lead to the suspension of the projects by the World Bank.
Kpakol particularly warned against acts such as kidnapping, marching ground, gender based violence and child labour, adding that such acts if they occur may lead to the cancellation of the project by the World Bank.
During the visit to Oyigbo local government area, Mr Joshua Kpakol, said the team was there to let them know how they will benefit from the Raamp.
The coordinator who was personally at Oyigbo said the World Bank introduced the project to check food insecurity in the State.
He said already 19 states in Nigeria are already benefitting from the project and called on them to embrace the project.
Meanwhile, stakeholders in the three local government areas have commended the World Bank for including their areas in the project.
They, however, complained over the incessant attacks by pirates on their waterways.
At Degema, King Agolia of Ke kingdom said land was a major problem in the kingdom.
King Agolia represented by High Chief Alpheus Damiebi said many indigenes of the kingdom are willing to go into farming but are handicapped by lack of land.
Also at Degema, the representative of the Omu Onyam Ekeim of Usokun Degema kingdom, Osoabo Isaac, said Degema has embraced the programme but needed more information on the implementation of the programme.
Similarly, while High Chief Precious Abadi advised that the project should not be narrowed to only crop farming, a community women leader, Mrs Orikinge Eremabo Otto, called for the construction of cold rooms in all fishing settlements in the area.
At Abonnema, Mr Diamond Kio linked the problem of the area to incessant piracy along waterways.
He also expressed fears over the possibility of the project being hijacked by politicians.
Also at Abonnema, a stakeholder, Ikiriko Kelvin, called on the World Bank to design an agricultural project that will suit the riverine environment, while at Oyigbo, HRH Eze Boniface Akawo expressed satisfaction with the project.
John Bibor
The political mudslinging between the Senate leadership and Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan continued yesterday as the Senate named Senator Aniekan Bassey as the new Chairman of the Committee on Diaspora and Non-Governmental Organisations.
Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, announced the appointment during yesterday’s plenary, confirming Bassey’s replacement of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, who is currently on suspension.
Akpoti-Uduaghan was reassigned to the Diaspora and NGOs Committee in February after she was removed as Chair of the Senate Committee on Local Content during a minor reshuffle.
Bassey is the senator representing Akwa Ibom North-East Senatorial District.
Although no reason was given for her removal yesterday, the change is believed to be connected to her unresolved suspension.
In May, Justice Binta Nyako of the Federal High Court ordered her reinstatement and directed her to tender an apology to the Senate.
However, the Senate has insisted it has not received a certified true copy of the court judgment.
Akpoti-Uduaghan who represents Kogi Central, has yet to resume her legislative duties despite a recent court ruling that voided her suspension.
In a televised interview on Tuesday, Akpoti-Uduaghan said she was awaiting the Certified True Copy of the judgment before officially returning to plenary, citing legal advice and respect for institutional process.
Although the Federal High Court described her suspension as “excessive and unconstitutional”, a legal opinion dated July 5 and attributed to the Senate’s counsel, Paul Daudu (SAN), argued that the ruling lacked any binding directive to enforce her reinstatement.
Akpoti-Uduaghan, one of only three female senators in the current assembly, said the continued delay in allowing her return was not only a denial of her mandate but also a blow to democratic representation.
“By keeping me out of the chambers, the Senate is not just silencing Kogi Central, it’s denying Nigerian women and children representation. We are only three female senators now, down from eight,” she said.