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Nigerian Economy Shrinks By N63bn, 28 Sectors Struggle

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No fewer than 28 sectors of the economy declined in the second quarter of 2022 as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrunk by N63.49billion quarter-on-quarter.
While real GDP grew by 3.54per cent year-on-year in Q2 2022, it declined by 0.37per cent from the N17.35trillion that was recorded in the first quarter of 2021 to N17.29trillion in Q2, 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)data revealed.
The NBS blamed this decline on lower economic activity that was witnessed in Q1 2021.
The analysis of real GDP data revealed that only 18 of the 46 NBS captured economic activity sectors experienced growth in the quarter under review.
According to the data from the statistics body, the agriculture sector witnessed mixed positives, with two sub-sectors witnessing growth and the other two recording a decline.
Crop production grew from N3.39trillion to N3.59trillion; livestock declined from N318.49billion to N282.02billion; forestry grew from N44.14billion to N51.28billion; while fishing declined from N125.46billion to N88.3billion.
In the mining and quarrying sector, crude petroleum and natural gas declined from N1.15trillion to N1.09trillion; coal mining grew from N1.61billion to N4.79billion; metal ores declined from N4.87billion to N1.26billion; and quarrying other minerals grew from N363.29million to N25.51billion.
The 2022 has been a tough year for the manufacturing sector with inflation and foreign exchange scarcity negatively impacting growth.
Only three of the 13 subsectors in the manufacturing sector recorded any growth in the quarter under review.
Oil refining grew from N1.66billion to N2.82billion; cement declined from N188.81billion to N143.74billion; food, beverage and tobacco declined from N875.94billion to N760.08billion; textile, apparel, and footwear declined from N342.48billion to N283.34billion; wood and wood products declined from N53.81billion to N44.41billion; whereas pulp, paper, and paper products declined from N13.38billion to N9.70billion.
Chemical and pharmaceutical products grew from N42.75billion to N47.37billion; non-metallic products declined from N63.52billion to N49.24billion; plastic and rubber products declined from N60.12billion to N53.01billion; electrical and electronics increased from N839.34million to N921.50million; basic metal, iron and steel declined from N39.93billion to N37.31billion; motor vehicles and assembly declined from N9.53billion to N7.63billion; and other manufacturing declined from N76.07billion to N55.55billion.
The electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector grew from N32.72billion to N118.79billion.
The water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation sector grew from N39.06billion to N61.12billion.
Construction declined from N725.99billion to N554.11billion.
The trade sector grew from N2.79trillion to N2.91trillion.
Accommodation and food services also recorded a decline from N173.41billion to N68.17billion.
Under the transportation and storage sector, road transport grew from N151.97billion to N293.85billion; rail transport and pipelines declined from N40.96million to 19.92million; water transport increased from N802,77million to N1.04billion; air transport declined from N25.26billion to N9.69billion; transport services grew from N7.11billion to N11.14billion; and post and courier services declined from N6.26billion to N2.42billion.
Seen as one of the bright spots of the economy, telecommunications and information services under the information and communication sector grew from N2.25trillion to N2.59trillion; publishing declined from N5.45billion to N4.66billion; motion pictures, sound recording and music production declined from N229.67billion to N157.57billion; and broadcasting grew from N330.47billion to N433.43billion.
The arts, entertainment and recreation sector declined from N35.69billion to N51.85billion.
In the financial and insurance sector, the financial institutions subsector declined and insurance declined from N85.11billion to N80.18billion.
The real estate sector was one of the sectors that shrunk, declining from N927.32billion to N920.49billion.
The professional, scientific and technical services sector fell from N560.47billion to N525.94billion; administrative and support services grew from N3.39billion to N3.54billion; public administration also grew from N283.59billion to N375.59billion, but education fell from N333.06billion to N231.85billion.
While the other services sector declined from N702.74billion to N473.72billion, the human health and social services sector increased from N126.01billion to N131.28billion.
In a statement addressing the general GDP, the Founder/Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, disclosed that productivity and competitiveness issues had continued to negatively impact performance across sectors of the economy.
He stated that the general operating environment of the nation was also very challenging for most investors, with SMEs particularly more vulnerable to prevailing macroeconomic shocks, resulting in high mortality rate for small businesses.
He said, “Many businesses are struggling to cope with the numerous challenges and shocks to the economy. On the welfare front, the citizens are also experiencing serious economic hardship as a result of the galloping inflation and the impact on purchasing power.”

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EFCC Arrests 33 Suspected Internet Fraudsters In PH

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Operatives of the Port Harcourt Zonal Directorate of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) have arrested 33 suspected internet fraudsters in Rivers State.
The Spokesperson for the commission, Dele Oyewale, said this in a statement in Abuja, last Wednesday.
Oyewale said they were arrested in their hideouts in Iwofe and Ogbogoro areas of Port Harcourt in a sting operation, based on credible intelligence on their suspected involvement in internet fraud.
“Items recovered from the suspects include various mobile phone devices, laptops, boxes of fake United States Dollar and fake Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) stamps.
“Others are fake Customs stamps, airport clearance stamps, DHL and FedEx stamps and two cars.
“The suspects would be charged to court upon conclusion of investigations,” he said

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UK Plans To Reuse Old Graves, Reopen Full Graveyards

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Old graves could be reused under new recommendations put forward to manage the shortage of burial space in Britain.
Under the proposed changes put forward by the Law Commission, graveyards declared “full’’ during the Victorian era could also be reopened.
The commission has warned the urban areas across England and Wales of fast running out of burial space.
There have been proposed changes to allow any burial ground to reuse graves, but only following public consultation and government approval.
Safeguards would also be in place for each individual grave, with plots only eligible for reuse when the last person was buried at least 75 years ago.
Another separate public consultation is considering the time frames around grave reuse, and what would happen if family members objected.
Prof. Nick Hopkins, commissioner for property, family and trust law, said any change would need to be tackled in consultation with the public.
“Our proposals provide a significant opportunity to reform burial and cremation law and secure burial space for future generations.
“This must be done sensitively and with wider public support,” he said.
Current legislation made it illegal to redevelop a graveyard for any reason other than to grow a place of worship.
Other publicly-run cemeteries can be redeveloped if the owner was granted an Act of Parliament.
Alex Davies-Jones, parliamentary under-secretary of state at the Ministry of Justice, said the government was supportive of the Law Commission’s work.
“We await with interest the Law Commission’s recommendations, in due course, on the most appropriate framework to provide modern, consistent regulation for burial and cremation,” she said.
Public consultation on the proposed changes is open until January 2025.

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Crude-For-Loans: NNPCL Votes 8m Barrels Monthly For $8.8bn Debt

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has pledged 272,500 barrels per day of crude oil through a series of crude-for-loan deals totalling $8.86bn.
By pledging 272,500 barrels daily, it means that about 8.17 million barrels of crude will be used for different loan deals by the national oil firm on a monthly basis.
This is according to an analysis of a report by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the NNPC’s financial statements.
Under these deals, notable projects include Project Panther, Project Bison, Project Eagle Export Funding (Original, Subsequent, and Subsequent 2 Debts), Project Yield, and Project Gazelle.
According to The Tide’s source, NNPC has already fully repaid $2.61bn in loans, representing 29.4 per cent of the total credit facility, while $6.25bn or 70.6 per cent, remains outstanding.
Also, out of the $8.86bn credit facility, only about $6.97bn has been received from seven crude-for-loan deals.
One of the key projects, Project Panther, involves a joint venture between NNPC and Chevron Nigeria Limited, backed by international and local banks.
The project secured a $1.4bn loan facility, with 23,500bpd pledged to service the debt. Repayment is set to commence after a moratorium, with financing terms including an SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) plus 5.5 per cent margin and a liquidity premium.
Another significant deal is Project Bison, tied to NNPC’s attempt to acquire a 20 per cent equity stake in the Dangote refinery. However, the national oil company only acquired a 7.25 per cent stake.
The project secured a $1.04bn loan from Afrexim Bank, with 35,000 bpd pledged as collateral. NNPC fully repaid this loan in June 2024.
Project Eagle Export Funding comprises three separate loans aimed at meeting various financial obligations.
The original loan, secured in 2020 for $935m, was serviced with 30,000 bpd and was fully repaid by September 2023.
A subsequent loan of $635m was also fully repaid by the same period. The third tranche, known as Project Eagle Export Funding Subsequent 2 Debt, was secured in 2023 for $900m, with 21,000 bpd pledged. Repayment is scheduled to begin in June 2024, and the loan will mature in 2028.
Project Yield, designed to support the Port Harcourt Refining Company, involves a $950m loan, with 67,000 bpd pledged for repayment.
The repayment of the loan, secured in 2022, will begin in December. This seven-year facility is crucial to refurbishing the refinery and enhancing domestic refining capacity.
However, despite this crude-for-loan arrangement, The Tide reports that fuel production at the Port Harcourt refinery has yet to commence, despite multiple postponements as of August. Promises from the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources and NNPC have repeatedly fallen through.
More recently, there was the Project Gazelle deal, which aimed to stabilise Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.
In December 2023, NNPC secured a $3bn forward sale agreement, pledging 90,000bpd from Production Sharing Contract assets to cover future tax and royalty obligations.
As of the end of 2023, $2.25bn had been drawn from this facility, with repayments scheduled to begin by mid-2024.
These crude-for-loan deals come at a time when Nigeria is struggling to boost its oil production.
The NEITI 2022-2023 report revealed a significant decline in crude oil output, reaching the lowest levels in a decade. In 2022, the country produced 490.94 million barrels of crude oil, a steep drop from the peak of 798.54 million barrels in 2014.
Although production slightly improved to 537.57 million barrels in 2023, this still represents only 67.16 per cent of the country’s peak production capacity.
One of the major challenges facing the sector is production deferment. In 2023, Nigeria deferred 110.66 million barrels of crude oil, down from 153.44 million barrels in 2022.
The deferment was primarily due to unscheduled maintenance, repair issues, and oil theft.
Despite government efforts to curb these issues, including initiatives to reduce theft and sabotage, operational inefficiencies persist.
NEITI reported that oil theft and sabotage resulted in the loss of 5.25 million barrels in 2023, exacerbating production struggles.
The House of Representatives Special Joint Committee recently directed NNPC to halt further crude-for-loan agreements.
This directive follows reports that the company is planning to borrow an additional $2bn in oil-backed loans amid efforts to settle a $6bn backlog owed to international oil traders, particularly following the removal of fuel subsidy.
The Tide’s source reported that the NNPC was in talks for another oil-backed loan to boost its finances and allow investment in its business, according to the Group Chief Executive Officer, NNPC, Mele Kyari.
Kyari said the company wanted the new loan against 30,000-35,000 barrels per day of crude production, though he declined to say how much money it sought.
Nigeria’s government finances rely on oil the NNPC exports, which provides the bulk of crucial foreign exchange reserves. However, pipeline theft and years of underinvestment have sapped oil production in recent years, and the cost of fuel subsidies has further depleted cash reserves.
President Bola Tinubu has been struggling to implement reforms in Africa’s biggest oil exporter – including eliminating fuel subsidies and allowing the naira currency to trade close to market levels – without putting the country’s population at a cost-of-living breaking point.
It explained at the time that the oil company would use the loan to support the Federal Government in stabilising Nigeria’s exchange rate.
The facility, among other things, would help the Federal Government attend to some of its dollar obligations, assist the Central Bank of Nigeria in stabilising the foreign exchange market, and provide funding for NNPC.
Providing details about the deal in the document titled, “Everything you need to know about the NNPC Limited’s $3.3bn loan, also known as Project Gazelle,” NNPC said, “This is a financing agreement secured by NNPC Limited to prepay future royalties and taxes to the Federal Government.”
The company also stated that it adopted a lower price benchmark for the $3.3bn crude-for-cash loan to reduce the risk of default and ensure financial stability.
Giving details on the benchmark oil price, the company said the facility used a conservative crude price of $65/barrel to calculate the allocated crude to be produced and sold.
NNPC also said repayments were strategically planned and tied to future oil sales, with conservative pricing in oil sales contracts mitigating the risks associated with oil price volatility.

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