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Is Biden Really Responsible For High Oil Prices?

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My columns tend to generate a lot of “passionate” responses from viewers. I try to correct misconceptions, as well as false statements and beliefs about the energy industry. But, in doing so I hear from the very people who hold and promote those beliefs.For example, whenever I explain the factors behind the rise in oil and gasoline prices, I get three different kinds of feedback.
The first is simply appreciative of the explanation. The second is from angry Republicans, who are upset that I didn’t put most of the blame on President Biden and the Democrats. The third is from angry Democrats, who are mad that I am not putting the blame at the feet of oil companies.
I provide that preface because today’s column is the type that brings out the angry people. It’s going to be backed up with facts. Some are not going to appreciate the facts, but I think it’s important that people have accurate information about the energy industry.
Last month, Representative Jim Jordan tweeted:
This is a bizarre tweet, because who does Jordan think people are paying that money to?
First, we can agree that people are paying far more for gasoline under President Biden. We could discuss the reasons, but it is a fact that prices are much higher. In turn, inflation is soaring.
We can discuss President Biden’s energy policies. I have been critical of many of them. I was critical of the shutdown of the Keystone XL pipeline project. I have been critical of the general hostility to the U.S. oil and gas industry, especially in light of the fact that the administration is now groveling to Saudi Arabia.
How about improving relations with U.S. oil producers? Instead of demonizing them and blaming them for high oil prices, how about having a civil dialogue and gaining a better understanding of the industry?
So, I agree fully that Biden hasn’t been a pro-oil president.
Nevertheless, contrary to the misconception that Jim Jordan tweeted, the U.S. oil industry has thrived under President Biden. The share prices of energy companies have exploded since his inauguration, because their profits have surged.
To be clear, I am not arguing that this is because of Biden. It’s not. But to suggest that Biden is wiping out the energy industry is nonsensical. Let’s look at some numbers.
There is an index that is commonly used as a stock market benchmark for oil and gas producers. It’s called the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF. The stock symbol is XOP. It currently holds about 60 oil and gas producers and refiners, from giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron to very small producers.
I am going to provide some numbers that you can check at Yahoo Finance. Enter the stock symbol, select historical data, and look at the share price over time. Use “Adjusted Closing Prices”, because that corrects the share price for dividends and stock splits, which gives a more accurate view of performance over time than just share price.
President Trump was inaugurated on Friday, January 20, 2017. The XOP closed that day at $151.70.
Although oil production continued to expand under President Trump, the oil producers themselves didn’t fare as well because of poor oil prices. On January 19, 2021, President Trump’s last full day as president, the XOP closed at $69.02.
That means that the XOP, a good benchmark of the health of the oil and gas industry, declined by 54.5% while President Trump was in office.
Some will claim that this was because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Actually, at the beginning of 2020, before the first case of Covid in the U.S., the XOP was at $90.00.
So, it was already down by 40.6% prior to the pandemic. Even if you look all the way back to the previous summer, the XOP was trading at around $105-$110, still well below the value when Trump took office.
President Biden was inaugurated on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The closing price of the XOP on President Biden’s first day in office was $68.64. As I write this after the close on June 16, 2022, even after a huge sell-off, the XOP closed at $139.68.
That is a gain of 103% in the XOP in the 1.5 years that President Biden has been in office. This implies that the market value of the U.S. oil industry has approximately doubled under Biden, following a sharp define under Trump.
You can repeat this exercise for just about any oil and gas company, and you are going to find similar results for most of them: A large decline under President Trump, and a large gain under President Biden.
So, say what you want about President Biden’s hostility to oil and gas. I will probably agree with you. But imply that the industry is doing poorly under Biden, and that is a complete denial of reality. Many companies, even huge companies like Chevron, have seen their values soar since Biden has been in office.
Some of the conservatives that get this far will be angry, wondering “Why are you defending Biden?” I’m not. I am correcting a misconception. Biden is not the reason their share prices soared.
They soared because oil prices soared. (Of course, if you blame him for oil prices soaring, I suppose you would have to credit him for the huge expansion in the valuation of the oil industry).
There is another counter-intuitive example from history that is worth mentioning.
President George W. Bush was widely viewed as an oilman, with an oilman for a vice president in Dick Cheney. Yet, U.S. oil production declined while they were in office.
Then, President Obama, who, like Biden, was generally hostile to oil and gas, came along and oversaw the largest oil production expansion in U.S. history.
How can this be? President Obama just happened to be in office when fracking began to pay dividends. He reaped the benefit of developments that had been taking place for years.
It’s just another example of one president being impacted by events from the previous administration, and getting the credit (or sometimes the blame).
That’s also the case here with President Biden. The initial surge of oil prices were a result of the crash of oil supplies in May 2020, and then the subsequent recovery of demand over the next two years. The production crash took place under Trump, as did the early recovery.
But the demand increase kept going into Biden’s term, while supplies struggled to catch up. That drove oil prices, and the share prices of oil companies, much higher. Biden just happened to be president when it happened.
The point here is correlation does not imply causation. But let’s make sure we understand the facts.
Rapier reports for oilprice.com

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Oil & Energy

FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth

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The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.

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Oil & Energy

Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas

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The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo,  gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.

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Oil & Energy

Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain

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Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.

lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.

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