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Rivers Tops 2021 Fiscal Performance Ranking

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Rivers State has grossed the top position in the 2021 Fiscal Performance Ranking, beating 35 others states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in the State of States 2021 BudgIT Report.
A close look at the National Fiscal Outlook shows that Rivers State once again topped the overall 2021 Fiscal Performance Ranking despite COVID-19 induced fiscal shocks to its IGR, indicating that the fiscal fundamentals of the state, compared to other states, are more prudently managed.
Two states made it, as new entrants, to the Top 5 category in the overall 2021 ranking – Ebonyi State emerged in second position, up from sixth position in 2020, and Kebbi State emerged in fifth position, up from 11th position in 2020.
The entrance of Ebonyi and Kebbi states into the Top 5 category was driven largely by growth in both states’ IGR as recorded by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
In the 2021 Performance Ranking, two states dropped out of the Top 5 in overall ranking; Ogun State (now 19th) and Kano State (now 22nd), due to a sharp decline in their IGR in 2020.
A closer look at the report shows that the Top 5 States are Rivers (1), Ebonyi (2), Anambra (3), Lagos (4) and Kebbi (5), while the Bottom 5 are Bayelsa (36), Taraba (35), Benue (34), Katsina (33) and Adamawa (32).
The rest of the states are Kaduna (6), Gombe (7), Cross River (8), Edo (9), Kwara (10), Zamfara (11), Sokoto (12), Osun (13), Enugu (14), Abia (15), Nasarawa (16), Borno (17)and Plateau (18).
Others include Ogun (19), Imo ranked 20, Yobe in 21st position, Kano (22), Oyo (23), Akwa Ibom (24), Jigawa (25), Niger (26), Bauchi (27), Kogi (28), Ekiti (29), Ondo (30), and an oil and gas-producing state – Delta- at 31st position.
In fact, three oil and gas producing states – Bayelsa, Delta and Ondo – are in the Bottom 7 of the 2021 Fiscal Performance Ranking, showing shamefully frivolous management of scarce resources accruing to the states in the year under review.
In the States’ Comparative Viability Index, only three states in the country can meet their operating expenses obligations with a combination of their IGR and Value Added TAX (VAT) as measured in BudgIT’s States’ Performance Index Ranking: Lagos, Rivers and Anambra.
The States Performance Index ranked Lagos tops with a score of 0.70, Rivers second with a score of 0.81, Anambra third with a score of 0.99, Ebonyi fourth with a score of 1.08, and Cross River fifth with 1.21 score.
Kaduna scored 1.22 to emerge sixth, Kebbi scored 1.26 to emerge seventh, Osun scored 1.36 to rank ninth, Zamfara scored 1.45 to rank 10th, Plateau scored 1.48 to emerge 11th, Gombe scored 1.49 to rank 12th while Edo scored 1.54 to emerge 13th in the ranking.
Kwara ranked 14th with a scored 1.55, Enugu ranked 15th with a score of 1.66, Oyo ranked 16th with a score of 1.66, Sokoto ranked 17th with a score of 1.72, Imo ranked 18th with a score 1.76, Abia 19th on 1.78 score, Kano 20th on 1.82 score, Borno 21th on 1.99 score, Nasarawa 22nd, on 1.99 score, and Kogi 23rd on 2.09 score.
With a score of 2.18, Bauchi ranked 24th, Yobe scored 2.26 to rank 25th, Niger scored 2.30 to emerge 26th, Adamawa scored 2.33 to rank 27th, Ondo scored 2.33 to rank 28th, Akwa Ibom scored 2.34 to rank 29th, Katsina scored 2.41 to emerge 30th while Ekiti scored 2.47 to rank 31st.
At the Bottom 5 of the States Performance Index, are Jigawa which scored 2.47 to rank 32nd, Delta 2.51 score at 33rd, Benue 2.64 score to rank 34th, Taraba scored 3.23 to emerge 35th, and Bayelsa scored 5.32 to gross 36th.
The BudgIT report urged that states at the bottom of the Index A ranking need to do more to rapidly consolidate on any ongoing strategies to improve their IGR and by extension, their viability as federating entities.
In its ranking of States Performance on Index B which measured availability of public revenue to invest in capital infrastructure after fulfilling repayment obligations to lenders and their government’s operation expenses, the BudgIT report ranked Ebonyi tops with a score of 0.47, Rivers second with a score of 0.48, Kebbi third with a score 0.51, Anambra fourth with a score of 0.53, and Kaduna fifth with a score of 0.57.
States with less revenue left to invest in capital infrastructure for citizens, and also face greater risk of borrowing are Zamfara which scored 0.96 and ranked 33rd, Oyo at 0.98 and ranked 34th, Benue which scored 1.00 and ranked 35th, and Taraba, ranking 36th with a score of 1.19.
However, BudgIT cautioned that “all Nigerian states still need to work hard to build economic prosperity and create more jobs in their states to ensure that there is more money in circulation and economic activities that can be taxed to improve their IGR”.
On the Subnational Debt Outlook, the BudgIT report said that, “Cumulatively, the 36 states total debt burden increased by N472.63billion or 8.78percent from N5.39trillion in 2019 to N5.86trillion in 2020. This increase in total subnational debt was driven largely by exchange rate volatility which saw the value of the Naira jump from N305.9/$1 in 2019 to N380/$1 as at December 31, 2020.”
Its report on the Spending Priorities shows that “based on each state’s 2020 revenue, five states prioritized investment in infrastructure by spending more on capital expenditure than operating expenses. The states are Ebonyi, Rivers, Anambra and Cross River states in the South and Kaduna State in the North.”
The BudgIT report also gave a detailed breakdown of Rivers State’s growth indices over the five-year IGR earning trend from 2016 through 2020, with N85.29billion in 2016, N89.48billion in 2017, N112.78billion in 2018, N140.40billion in 2019 and N117.19billion in 2020.
It showed that gross FAAC revenues stood at NN104.93billion in 2016, N138.15billion in 2017, N172.87billion in 2018, N169.13billion in 2019 and N149.75billion in 2020.
The state’s Year-On-Year Growth rate 2019 through 2020 shows that IGR declined by -16.53percent, Gross FAAC was -11.46percent, while Capital Expenditure was -24.14percent.
Also, the Structure of State of States Recurrent Revenue for 2020 reported N117.19billion in IGR value, representing 43.90percent, against N149.75billion Gross FAAC value, representing 56.10percent.
On the 2020 Spending Priority Index, Rivers State reported a Capital Expenditure of N168.36billion, or 59.70percent against N113.65billion Operating Expenses or 40.30percent.
The BudgIT report also gave an analysis of Rivers State’s Per Capita for 2020, which stood at N14,005 IGR Per Capita; N20,120 Capital Expenditure Per Capita; and N36,291 Total Debt Per Capita.
BudgIT report indicates that “Rivers State’s IGR was still the second highest in the country and accounted for 9.65percent of the total N1.21trillion in IGR generated by all 36 states; it was surpassed only by Lagos State, with an IGR of N418.98billion in 2020″.

By: Nelson Chukwudi

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Tinubu Lauds Dangote’s Diesel Price Cut, Foresees Economic Relief

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President Bola Tinubu, yesterday, applauded Dangote Oil and Gas Limited for reducing the price of Automotive Gas Oil, also known as diesel, from N1,650 to N1,000 per litre.
The Dangote Group recently reviewed downwards the gantry price of AGO from N1,650 to N1,000 per litre for a minimum of one million litres of the product, as well as providing a discount of N30 per litre for an offtake of five million litres and above
Tinubu described the move as an “enterprising feat” and said, “The price review represents a 60 per cent drop, which will, in no small measure, impact the prices of sundry goods and services.”
In a statement signed by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Ajuri Ngelale, Tinubu affirmed that Nigerians and domestic businesses are the nation’s surest transport and security to economic prosperity.
The statement is titled ‘President Tinubu commends Dangote Group over new gantry price of diesel.’
Tinubu also noted the Federal Government’s 20 per cent stake in Dangote Refinery, saying such partnerships between public and private entities are essential to advancing the country’s overall well-being.
Therefore, he called on Nigerians and businesses to, at this time, put the nation in priority gear while assuring them of a conducive, safe, and secure environment to thrive.
This statement comes precisely a week after Dangote met President Tinubu in Lagos, where he said Nigerians should expect a drop in inflation given the cut in diesel pump prices.
“In our refinery, we have started selling diesel at about ¦ 1,200 for ¦ 1,650 and I’m sure as we go along…this can help to bring inflation down immediately,” Dangote told journalists after he paid homage to President Bola Tinubu at the latter’s residence to mark Eid-el-Fitr.
The businessman said his petroleum refinery had been selling diesel at N1,200 per litre, compared to the previous price of N1,650–N1,700.
He expressed hopes that Nigeria’s economy will improve, as the naira has made some gains in the foreign exchange market, dropping from N1,900/$ to the current level of N1,250 – N1,300.
Dangote said this rise in value has sparked a gradual drop in the price of locally-produced goods, such as flour, as businesses are paying less for diesel. Therefore, he asserted that the reduced fuel costs would drive down inflation in the coming months.
“I believe that we are on the right track. I believe Nigerians have been patient and I also believe that a lot of goodies will now come through.
“There’s quite a lot of improvement because, if you look at it, one of the major issues that we’ve had was the naira devaluation that has gone very aggressively up to about ¦ 1,900.
“But right now, we’re back to almost ¦ 1,250, ¦ 1,300, which is a good reprieve. Quite a lot of commodities went up.
“When you go to the market, for example, something that we produce locally, like flour, people will charge you more. Why? Because they’re paying very high prices on diesel,” he explained.
He argued that the reduced diesel price would have “a lot of impact” on local businesses.
“Going forward, even though the crude prices are going up, I believe people will not get it much higher than what it is today, N1,200.
“It might be even a little bit lower, but that can help quite a lot because if you are transporting locally-produced goods and you were paying N1,650, now you are spending two-thirds of that amount, N1,200. It’s a lot of difference. People don’t know.
“This can help bring inflation down immediately. And I’m sure when the inflation figures are out for the next month, you’ll see that there’s quite a lot of improvement in the inflation rate, one step at a time. And I’m sure the government is working around the clock to ensure things get much better,” Dangote added.
He also urged captains of industry to partner with the government to improve the lives of citizens.
“You can’t clap with one hand,” said the businessman, adding, “So, both the entrepreneurs and the government need to clap together and make sure that it is in the best interest of everybody.”

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Court Halts Amaewhule-Led Assembly From Extending LG Officials’ Tenure

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The Rivers State High Court sitting in Port Harcourt has issued an interim injunction directing the maintenance of status quo ante belum following the move by the Martin Amaewhule-led Assembly in Rivers State to extend the tenure of the elected local government councils’ officials.
The Amaewhule-led Assembly, which is loyal to the Minister of Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, had amended the Local Government Law Number 5 of 2018 and other related matters.
Amaewhule, explained that the amendments of Section 9(2), (3) and (4)of the Principal Law was to empower the House of Assembly via a resolution to extend the tenure of elected chairmen and councilors, where it is considered impracticable to hold local government elections before the expiration of their three years in office.
But the court asked all the parties to maintain the status quo ante belum pending the hearing and determination of motion on notice for the interlocutory injunction.
The court presided over by G.N. Okonkwo also ordered that the claimant/applicant would enter into an undertaking to indemnify the defendants in the sum of N5million should the substantive case turned out to be frivolous.
The court fixed April 22, 2024 to hear the motion on notice for interlocutory injunction.
Okonkwo also issued an order of substituted service of the motion on notice for interlocutory injunction, originating summons and other subsequent processes on the defendants.
The orders were made following a suit filed by Executive Chairman, Opobo-Nkoro, Enyiada Cooky-Gam; Bonny, Anengi Claude-Wilcox; and five other elected council officials challenging the decision of the Amaewhule-led House of Assembly to extend the tenure of local government areas.
Also named as defendants in the suit are the Governor of Rivers State, the Government of Rivers State and the Attorney-General of Rivers State.
The claimants/applicants are praying the court for a declaration that under section 9(1) of the Rivers State Local Government Amendment Law number 5 of 2018 the tenure of office of the chairmen and members of the 23 local government councils of Rivers State is three years
A declaration that the tenure of office of the elected chairmen and members of the local government areas would expire on the 17th of June 2024 having commenced on the 18th of June 2021 when they were sworn in.
A declaration that the defendants cannot in any manner or form extend the tenure of office of the chairmen and members of the local government areas after the expiration of their tenure.
An order of perpetual injunction restraining the defendants from extending the tenure of office of the chairmen and members of the local government areas.
An order of perpetual injunction restraining the 28th, 29th and 30th defendants (the Governor, the Government House and the Attorney-General) from giving effects to any purported extension of the tenure of the chairmen and members of the local government areas.
They also prayed for an order of interlocutory injunction directing all the defendants to maintain the status quo by not elongating the three-year tenure of the chairmen and councilors.
The claimants further sought an order of interlocutory injunction restraining the defendants from extending the tenures of the chairmen and the councilors.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Rate’ll Drop To 23% By 2025 -IMF

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In a recent release of its Global Economic Outlook at the International Monetary Fund/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., on Tuesday, the IMF provided projections for Nigeria’s economy, indicating a significant shift in inflation rates.
Division Chief of the IMF Research Department, Daniel Leigh, highlighted the impact of Nigeria’s economic reforms, including exchange rate adjustments, which have led to a surge in inflation rate to 33.2 percent in March.
Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 33.2 percent according to recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Also, the food inflation rate increased to over 40 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.
Leigh stated, “We see inflation declining to 23 per cent next year and then 18 percent in 2026.”
This is however different from the fund’s prediction of a new single-digit (15.5 per cent ) inflation rate for 2025 which it predicted last year.
He further elaborated on Nigeria’s economic growth, which is expected to rise from 2.9 percent last year to 3.3 percent this year, attributing this expansion to the recovery in the oil sector, improved security, and advancements in agriculture due to better weather conditions and the introduction of dry season farming.
The IMF official also noted a broad-based increase in Nigeria’s financial and IT sectors.
“Inflation has increased, reflecting the reforms, the exchange rate, and its pass-through into other goods from imports to other goods,” Leigh explained.
He added that the IMF revised its inflation projection for the current year to 26 percent but emphasised that tight monetary policies and significant interest rate increases during February and March are expected to curb inflation.
An official of the IMF Research Department, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas commented on the global economic landscape, mentioning that oil prices have risen partly due to geopolitical tensions, and services inflation remains high in many countries.
Despite Nigeria’s inflation target of six to nine percent being missed for over a decade, Gourinchas stressed that bringing inflation back to target should be the priority.
He warned of the risks posed by geo-economic fragmentation to global growth prospects and the need for careful calibration of monetary policy.
“Trade linkages are changing, and while some economies could benefit from the reconfiguration of global supply chains, the overall impact may be a loss of efficiency, reducing global economic resilience,” Gourinchas said.
He also emphasised the importance of preserving the improvements in monetary, fiscal, and financial policy frameworks, particularly for emerging market economies, to maintain a resilient global financial system and prevent a permanent resurgence in inflation.

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