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Cure For High Oil Prices Might Be Higher Oil Prices

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Oil producers have had a great year with oil prices rallying by as much as 20% in 2022 alone.
Higher oil prices could incentivize upstream investments and help push more supply into the market.
“Historically, markets led higher by tightening product and crude inventories are difficult to solve absent a demand destruction event or a supply surge, neither of which appears to be on the horizon.”
Fundamentals and geopolitics have pushed oil prices rallying by 20 percent so far this year to levels last seen in the autumn of 2014. The price at over $90 a barrel is up by more than 60 percent from this time last year, and many analysts say that $100 oil is now a matter of when, not if.
Oil majors and oil-producing countries part of the OPEC+ alliance have seen the benefits of rallying oil prices with huge cash flows and profits, and government oil revenues, respectively.
While these handsome benefits of the high oil prices are undoubtedly positive for the finances of the supermajors, OPEC members, and Russia, the market is already wondering at what price point demand destruction will kick in.
At this point, considering the very tight market right now, persistently high oil prices at over $90—and possibly $100 a barrel—could be one of the few ‘cures’ for high oil prices in the medium term. In the longer term, $90, or $100, oil could incentivize more upstream investments, which have been woefully insufficient over the past two years, compared to the now rebounding post-COVID oil demand.
It could be $100 oil that would ‘cure’ high oil prices. Yet, it’s possible that demand growth will slow down—because of the high oil prices—before producers commit more investments in supply.
“The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth,” analysts at Energy Aspects wrote in a note to clients this week cited byBloomberg.
Bringing more supply, on the other hand, is now more challenging than before the pandemic. ESG issues and the energy transition for the international majors, as well as the new-found and still-largely-holding capital discipline of U.S. shale producers, combine with supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages, and cost inflation. $100 oil could unleash a lot more U.S. oil production, in theory, but supply chain constraints and record-high frac sand prices are likely to temper growth, analysts at Rystad Energy say.
Global investments in supply rose in 2021 compared to 2020 and are expected to rise this year as well, but they will still lag pre-pandemic levels, all forecasters say. The oil majors have not boosted exploration investments too much, while U.S. shale basically needs to raise investment just to keep production flat. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil majors’ share of overall upstream spending is now at 25 percent, compared with nearly 40 percent in the mid-2010s.
Unlike oil majors, national oil companies, especially ADNOC of Abu Dhabi and Saudi Aramco, are investing more in new supply as they each look to raise their respective production capacities by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of this decade.
In the near term, however, the market fundamentals point that supply is lagging behind the rebound in demand, pushing oil prices higher, together with the threat of a possible disruption in the Russian oil supply due to the Ukraine crisis.
Analysts say that the short-term cure for high oil prices is for them to reach the point at which they will start to weigh on demand. It seems that we are not there yet.
During previous upcycles, $80 seemed to be the point at which major oil-consuming countries started to plead with producers for more supply. We are now well past this point, and as pleas with OPEC+ to pump more oil continue, the alliance is not changing course – for now – and the few producers with spare capacity are not compensating for a massive overall under-production at those that lack that capacity.
Oil could be set for $100 and even more later this year, analysts told CNBC this week.
“We could be early, but the major cornerstone of our thesis over the next year, or longer, assuming the macro economy holds, is that the oil cycle will price higher until it finds a level of demand destruction,” Michael Tran, commodity and digital intelligence strategist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note carried by CNBC.
“Historically, markets led higher by tightening product and crude inventories are difficult to solve absent a demand destruction event or a supply surge, neither of which appears to be on the horizon,” according to RBC Capital Markets.

By: Michael Kern
Kern reports for Oilprice.com.

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NB, Konexa Boost Renewable Energy

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Nigerian Breweries (NB) Plc has signed a power purchase agreement with Konexa, an integrated energy development and investment platform to deliver 100 per cent renewable energy that will cover the electricity needs of its two breweries – Kakuri and Kudenda, in Kaduna State.
Under the 10-year agreement, Nigerian Breweries has outsourced the power supply for its breweries, converting from fossil fuels into a full-service renewable energy solution, using hydro-power sources.
This step is in line with its business strategy and ‘Brew a Better World’ sustainability agenda. The project is co-funded by Climate Fund Managers and Konexa.
The Managing Director, NB, Mr. Hans Essaadi, described the agreement as another significant step in the company’s journey in its quest to operating a carbon-neutral plant in future, adding that its partnership with Konexa will reduce its energy costs and cost of production.
“By 2030, we want to become a standard reference point in Nigeria when it comes to sustainability and efficient use of resources. Under our ‘Brew a Better World’ agenda, we are taking several bold steps to become a carbon-neutral company”, Hans explained.
The Commercial Director at Konexa, Joel Abrams, explained that the agreement was part of Konexa’s commitment to supporting industry, national governments and utilities to achieve clean and reliable 24-hour-a-day power.
He added that the partnership anchors Konexa’s confidence in the power sector and will bring long-term investment and world-class operations to support the sector’s sustainability by improving reliability, quality of service, and job creation.
“We are very pleased to be part of the energy transition that Nigerian Breweries Plc. is leading. This agreement is particularly significant in the current context of increasing energy costs from traditional fossil fuels.
“This type of solution can apply to many businesses across Nigeria, allowing them to obtain cost-effective power from a reliable partner while focusing on their core business,” he stated.
The Chief Investment Officer, Climate Fund Managers Tarun Brahma, n his part,  said, “we are proud to support Konexa and look forward to actively supporting Nigerian Breweries Plc. as they demonstrate leadership in driving the decarbonisation of their operations in Nigeria”.
Last year, NB Plc inaugurated its 663.6 KWP solar power plant at its Ibadan brewery, which supplies 1GWh yearly to the brewery while reducing its carbon emissions by 10,000 tonnes over a 15-year lifespan of the plant.

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NLNG Bags FIRS’ Most Supportive Taxpayer Award

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The Nigeria Liquified Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited has been recognised by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) as its most supportive taxpayer.
The recognition was conveyed in a statement by the Executive Chairman of FIRS, Mr. Muhammad Nami, in which he commended the 20 top-performing taxpayers whose compliances to tax obligations helped the service surpass its N6 trillion tax collection target in 2021.
Nami said FIRS was particularly pleased that the feat was achieved, and it was possible to provide the government with the necessary funds to meet its social contracts with the citizens despite the very harsh global economic conditions imposed by the lingering COVID-19 pandemic.
The country’s top-performing taxpayers were scheduled to be unveiled, recognised and awarded by President Muhammadu Buhari at an exclusive dinner during the FIRS 2022 National Tax Week, but the event was cancelled due to the unfortunate attack on the Kaduna-Abuja railway on the 28th of March 2022.
Reacting, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigeria LNG Limited, Dr. Philip Mshelbila, said the award was coming at an auspicious time when the company was celebrating its 33rd Incorporation Anniversary and taking stock of its programmes and their impact on the lives of Nigerians and the country.
Mshelbila reiterated NLNG’s commitment to its vision of “helping to build a better Nigeria” and stated further that “the Company still has more to give by making gas count for the country and representing Nigeria in the league of top gas producers in the world.”
He affirmed the Company’s commitment to fulfilling its tax obligations in line with its vision of being a globally competitive LNG company helping to build a better Nigeria; and also thanked the board, management and staff of NLNG for their continued support.

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‘Oil Market Fears Recession More Than Tight Fuel Inventories’

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The oil market saw an other volatile week as bullish and bearish catalysts collided.
There is a growing fear that a potential recession could weigh heavily on oil demand.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year lows.
The oil market wrapped up another volatile week of hectic trading, swinging up and down in a $5 a barrel range as it was pulled between bullish and bearish catalysts in both directions every day.
Both benchmarks hit an eight-week high early on Tuesday, only to pull back later in the day and join on Wednesday the sell-off on Wall Street triggered by renewed investor concerns about a possible recession as top retailers flagged soaring costs and supply chain bottlenecks in their quarterly earnings reports.
In the week to May 20, oil market participants paid more attention to “recession fear” headlines than to the weekly U.S. petroleum status report, which showed another draw in gasoline inventories and higher implied domestic demand, which, despite record-high gasoline prices in America, is only set to rise further as we enter the summer driving season.
“The market is reacting to all sorts of different headlines hour to hour, and the movement in oil markets on a day-by-day basis getting even more exaggerated,” Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, told Reuterson Thursday, when oil settled higher after the U.S. dollar weakened, following a plunge in crude prices in earlier trading on the same day.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year low levels for this time of the year.
Investors and speculators pulled back from oil, with crude being a riskier asset, as concerns about a more pronounced global economic slowdown—and even a recession—intensified and dampened risk appetite.
“The possible easing of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela could be considered another bearish factor, coming in addition to the Hungarian veto on the EU’s plan to ban Russian oil,” Sebastien Bischeri, Oil & Gas Trading Strategist at Sunshine Profits, wrote inInvesting.com.
The EU is still struggling to persuade Hungary to accept an EU embargo on Russian oil imports. Adding to bearish factors were fresh COVID outbreaks in China, where Shanghai is tentatively reopening, but infections are rising in the Beijing area.
However, while the market is focused on gloomier economic outlooks, it has ignored—at least this past week—the critically low U.S. fuel inventories.
Not that oil demand has soared so much. It’sthe capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic.
Rising demand since economies reopened and people returned to travel, combined with lower refining capacity and very tight distillate markets have drawn down U.S. product inventories to below seasonal averages and at multi-year lows, with record-low inventories reported on the East Coast.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels in the week ending May 13, and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report on May 18. Implied gasoline demand, measured as products supplied, rose, despite record-high prices across the United States.
Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are at their lowest levels for this time of the year since 2014, with stocks on the East Coast even tighter, at their lowest since 2011 for this time of the year.
“While refiners have some room to increase runs (utilization rates increased by 1.8 percentage points to 91.8% over the week), gasoline demand should increase as we move into driving season, which suggests that we will see further tightness in the US gasoline market.
In this case, we are likely to see further pressure on the US administration to try rein in gasoline prices,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao wrote on Thursday.
According to Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst, Commodities, at SEB:
”The global refining system is severely stretched following reductions in capacities in 2020/21, reviving oil product demand along with re-openings with Russia/Ukraine issues on top. We are now heading into summer driving season with much higher gasoline demand with a start-out of very low inventories.”
Concerns about economic growth, and consequently, demand for fuels, are yet to be reflected in actual data, Saxo Bank said on Thursday.
“On the ground, however, this worry has yet to be reflected with inventories of crude oil and gasoline still falling while US implied gasoline demand, despite record prices, remains robust.
“Meanwhile, in China the easing of lockdowns is not going well with fresh outbreaks slowing the pace towards normalisation. Until then, the market is likely to focus on the general level of risk appetite, which is currently challenged,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team noted.

By: Tsvetana Paraskova
Paraskova writes for Oilprice .com.

 

 

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