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Market Ignores Surge In US Oil Output

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Bullish Wall Streets banks see supply deficits in 2022, while OPEC, the IEA and the DoE are forecasting surpluses.
Standard Chartered says a surge in U.S. oil output in Q4-2021 has gone largely unnoticed.
The U.S. added over 900kb/d to supply in H2-2021, with only Saudi Arabia adding more.
The energy sector’s bull run shows no signs of slowing down, with the sector closing comfortably at the top of Tuesday’s S&P sector standings, even as crude oil prices barely budged.
Brent blend for April delivery, the current front-month contract, settled at USD 89.26 per barrel (bbl) on 31 January, a w/w gain of USD 3.83/bbl. March Brent expired at USD 91.21/bbl on 31 January, a seven-year high front-month settlement, and reached a seven-year intraday high of USD 91.70/bbl on 28 January. Brent blend for delivery five years out has not settled above USD 70/bbl since 22 July 2015 but is now within range of that mark, having gained USD 0.87/bbl w/w to settle at USD 69.13/bbl on 31 January.
The energy sector’s favorite benchmark, Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE), is now up 23.0% year-to-date vs. -4.6% return by the S&P 500. Oil prices have continued their early-year strength, with front-month Brent recording five days of higher intra-day lows and three days of higher intra-day highs over the past week.
U.S. natural gas prices have been driven sharply higher by the cold snap on the East Coast, with the February Henry Hub contract gaining USD 0.999 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) w/w to settle at USD 4.874/mmBtu. The January contract expired on 27 January, reaching a 13-year high of USD 7.46/mmBtu intra-day before expiring at USD 6.265/mmBtu.
Weather in U.S. gas-consuming areas has been colder than normal for the past two weeks; the American Gas Association (AGA) estimates that there were 248 gas consumption-weighted degree days in the week ending 29 January, 27 more than usual. The cumulative number of degree-days since the start of October stands at 2,396, 344 less than normal.
The OPEC joint technical committee met on Tuesday, ahead of the ministerial meeting on Wednesday, to discuss oil-market fundamentals. The group has predicted an oil surplus in 2022 to clock in at 1.3mb/d on average, versus its prior forecast of 1.4mb/d, according to the Reuters.
Sources close to the group indicate that OPEC+ is likely to stick to its 400kb/d monthly production hike, while Goldman Sachs expects the cartel to announce a ramp in production quotas by 800kb/d in Wednesday’s meeting. The OPEC+ production target has been raised by 400kb/d seven times at monthly meetings since the current agreement was reached in July 2021.
Interestingly, Wall Street punters Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley see deficits in 2022 while OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) have all forecast substantial oil surpluses.
And yet another oil and commodity expert has thrown a cautionary note that a surplus could be building in the oil markets at a faster-than-expected clip.
Flying under the radar
In its latest commodity update dated Feb. 1, Standard Chartered says a surge in U.S. oil output in Q4-2021 has gone largely unnoticed by the oil market and oil analysts.
StanChart notes that in October 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that U.S. oil liquids supply (excluding refinery processing gains) would be 17.86 million barrels per day (mb/d) the following month. However, the analysts estimate (using revised data published in the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly’ PSM’ on 31 January) that U.S. oil supply actually averaged 18.795mb/d in November, a m/m increase of 352 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). That’s a good 935kb/d higher than the above EIA forecast and just 375kb/d (1.96%) below January 2020’s all-time high.
The U.S. added over 900kb/d to supply in H2-2021, with only Saudi Arabia adding more.
StanChart says the surge in U.S. production is evident in the latest set of earnings reports by oil companies, with 2.018mb/d of Q4 oil liquids output having been reported so far, a q/q increase of 98kb/d (5.1%). Company guidance suggests that the surge is likely to continue, in particular by Big Oil with ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) saying its target is to increase its Permian output by 25% while Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has projected full-year growth of 10% for its Permian output for a similar period.
The surge in U.S. supply runs counter to the market narrative by investment bank proponents of an oil super-cycle. Growth in U.S. supply was predicted to be limited in 2021 because of investor pressure for dividends rather than growth. However, StanChart analysts say that many analysts missed the fact that at current prices, oil and gas companies can significantly increase both dividends and capex.
Indeed, the analysts have predicted that we will see substantial upward revisions to 2022 U.S oil supply growth are likely from agencies, consultants and Wall Street analysts. If U.S. supply merely stays at its November 2021 level throughout 2022, annual average growth would still surpass 1mb/d, more than the current U.S. supply growth forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OPEC Secretariat.
StanChart says it expects U.S. oil supply to continue to surprise on the upside in 2022, and that this surge will not remain under the market radar for much longer.
Capital discipline
Luckily for the bulls, the banker says U.S. production growth will not continue indefinitely, and independent producers will be forced to stick to capital discipline.
The commodity experts have forecast that growth will slow in 2023 and beyond, with production growth from independent publicly-listed companies becoming crimped even at higher price levels weighed down by ESG mandates, shareholder demands for capex discipline and pressure to return capital, rising service costs and underinvestment affecting the drilling of new wells.
Further, the key factor for supply growth in several regions is whether drilling will ramp up fast enough to offset any reduction in the completion of DUCs. Without extra drilling, growth is likely to slow, and for now, there are no signs in the Bakken and Niobrara in particular of any upswing in activity going by the latest Baker-Hughes data.

By: Alex Kimani
Kimani reports for Oilprice.com

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FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth

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The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.

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Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas

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The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo,  gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.

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Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain

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Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.

lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.

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