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Nigeria’s Debt Vulnerable, Costly, World Bank Alerts

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The World Bank has disclosed that Nigeria’s debt, which may be considered sustainable for now, is vulnerable and costly.
According to the Washington-based global financial institution, the country’s debt is also at risk of becoming unsustainable in the event of macro-fiscal shocks.
The bank said this in the November edition of its Nigeria Development Update.
It said, “Nigeria’s debt remains sustainable, albeit vulnerable and costly, especially due to large and growing financing from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
“While currently the debt stock of 27per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is considered sustainable, any macro-fiscal shock can push debt to unsustainable levels.
“However, the debt to the GDP in Nigeria is rising quickly, and the total stock of debt in absolute value has almost doubled between 2016 and 2020, and without a policy change is expected to reach 40per cent of the GDP by 2025.”
The bank further expressed concerns over the nation’s cost of debt servicing, which according to it, disrupts public investments and critical service delivery spending.
“The cost of debt servicing is also a concern as it is potentially crowding out public investment and critical service delivery spending. Interest costs have been above two per cent of the GDP since 2018, reaching 2.4per cent of the GDP in 2019 and then falling to 2.2per cent of the GDP in 2020.
“Cost of debt is high as Federal Government also resorts to overdraft (Ways and Means financing) from the CBN to meet in-year cash shortfalls. At end of 2020, the stock of the CBN Ways and Means financing was estimated at N13.1trillion or 8.5per cent of the GDP,” it stated.
It, however, said that the Federal Government was making efforts to negotiate terms with the CBN in order to convert the stock of overdraft financing into a long-term debt instrument, which would lower the cost of debt for the government and enhance fiscal sustainability over the medium long term.
Economists have raised concerns over the rising debt profile of the Federal Government.
It would be recalled that the Federal Government has been planning to push its public debt stock to N50.22trillion by 2023, with domestic debt at N28.75trilion and external debt at N21.47trillion.
This was according to the projections in the National Development Plan 2021-2025.
The Debt Management Office had disclosed that Nigeria’s public debt was N38trillion as of the end of the third quarter of 2021, with the total debt stock rising by N2.540trillion in three months between July and September, 2021.
The NDP shows that the President Muhammadu Buhari-led Federal Government plans to accumulate about N12trillion debt in two years from 2021 to 2023.
However, based on the plan, the government targets a reduction in total public debt by 2025.
A tabular illustration in the document shows the government targets N39.59trillion debt stock for 2021, N46.63trillion for 2022, N50.22trillion for 2023, N50.53trillion for 2024, and N45.96trillion by 2025.
Analysts have agreed with the World Bank on the costly and vulnerable nature of Nigeria’s public debt.
The Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader of PwC, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, expressed his agreement with the World Bank’s assertion, highlighting the high cost of debt servicing.
He said, “I agree with the World Bank. Although the debt to GDP ratio is not too high, if you think about the debt service cost to revenue ratio, it is already over 70per cent. That’s when you know it’s costly.
“Nigeria borrows at double-digit, and even when we borrow in dollars, the rates are very high and then you devalue the naira and the cost of servicing the debt in naira goes up because it is dollar-dominated debt.
“Put all of that together, and you can easily say to yourself that even though our debt to GDP ratio is very low, our cost of borrowing is unsustainable because it is very high, and therefore, make it very costly.”
He advised the government to have an integrated debt-revenue-expenditure strategy, which would address expenditure efficiency, terms of borrowing, and revenue optimisation.
He also advised the government to reconsider its priorities regarding its national budget.
A former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and former presidential candidate, Kingsley Moghalu, also criticised the increasing borrowing tendency of the government, urging the officials to re-consider other ways of generating revenue for the country.
“There are many ways through which we can improve Nigeria’s domestic revenue situation without selling the future of our country. As to the argument that Nigeria does not have a debt problem but a revenue problem, that is mere sophistry. If you’re spending 90kobo of every one naira you earn repaying debt, you are insolvent.
“You cannot say that we have a debt-to-GDP ratio that allows you to continue borrowing. No! That is an argument for sustainable economies. You cannot be comparing Nigeria with advanced economies. We are in an economy that is still very basic.
“If you are not earning enough revenue, why are you borrowing? You are just compounding your problem. Why don’t you focus on where to get the revenue from instead of lazily ignoring that problem and just trying to survive with borrowing?
“If an individual was living a life that way, it would be a calamity. That is why Nigeria is in a calamitous situation today economically,” he said.
According to Moghalu, it is also not reasonable to borrow for infrastructural development as the government can expand the public-private partnership options for such development.
He said, “You cannot be borrowing for infrastructure. They should go and expand the PPP options for infrastructure.
“You don’t have to impoverish this country by borrowing. This is not sensible economic management.
“How sustainable economically are those infrastructures they claim to be building? Are they yielding enough money to pay back the debt?”

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Bonny-Bodo Road: FG Offers Additional N20bn, Targets December Deadline

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The Federal Government has agreed to offer additional N20.5 billion for the completion of the Bonny-Bodo road project in December.
The government, however, said if the construction company, Julius Berger, was not ready to accept the offer, the contract will be terminated.
Minister of Works, David Umahi, said this during a meeting with the Managing Director of Julius Berger, Lars Ritcher and members of Bodo-Bonny Road Peace Committee, on Wednesday in Abuja.
The reports that Julius Berger had requested asking for a N28 billion variation on the 82 per cent completed project.
The company hinged its request on the rise in exchange rate, construction materials, and diesel among others.
Umahi, however, said the government was willing to provide N20 billion out of the N28 billion that Julius Berger requested for.
According to him, the Bonny-Bodo road contract which was initially awarded at the cost of N120 billion in 2015, was later varied at N199 billion with a completion dateline of December 2023, which has since elapsed.
The Tide’s source recalls that in 2017, an agreement between the Federal Government, Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) and Julus Berger on modalities for funding the project cost of N199.923 billion, without any further increase.
“If you do not accept the Federal Government’s offer by Friday and resume work on the site, the previously expired 14-day ultimatum for termination of project will be enforced.
“I want to let you know that we are the client. No contractor will dictate for this ministry, and there is no job that is compulsory that a particular contractor must do.
“We give you an offer. If you do not like the offer, you walk away. You don’t force us or we don’t force you.
“Agreement of contractual relationship is a mutual understanding,’’ the minister said.
Umahi said that had Julius Berger adhered to the project timetable, the project would have been completed on schedule before the impact of foreign exchange.
“Our position is very simple, we reject the conditions of Julius Berger totally and we ask Berger to please go back to the site to complete the project based on our offer.
“Our offer is unconditional and we say, accept or reject, so you cannot subject our offer to your conditions ,’’ he added
Umahi said the company should be humble in its dealings and exhibit solidarity during challenges.
Earlier, Richter had explained that the company suspended work on the site to seek some clarifications from the ministry.
According to him, the company asked for the augmemtation of N28 bilion because as at the time the contract was awarded the exchange rate was N305 to a dollar and diesel was N350 eor litre.
“We will still require some outstanding materials; that means that the initial agreement can’t fly because the variation of project is not sufficient and the exchange rate is also not in our favour to compensate the additional costs.
“That is why we decided to go back to our original proposal of the augmentation. Augmentation is a very normal process for all contracts,” the managing director said.
Chief Abel Attoni, Palace Secretary, Bonny Kingdom, expressed gratitude to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu over the decision to complete the Bodo-Bonny road project.
Attonu urged the parties to be patriotic and make the necessary sacrifice for the actualisation of the project.

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Court Vacates Arrest Warrant Against Ehie, Five Others

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The Federal High Court, sitting in Abuja, yesterday, set aside the warrant of arrest against Rt. Hon. Edison Ehie, the Chief of Staff, Government House, Rivers State, and five others.
Justice Emeka Nwite stated this while delivering his ruling in an application seeking to vacate the warrant of arrest which he issued on January 31, 2024.
The Judge said he was misled by the police in ordering the arrest of Ehie in connection with the burning of the Rivers State House of Assembly on October 30, 2023.
The Police, had told the court that Ehie and five others masterminded the bombing of the Rivers State House of Assembly amid a plot to impeach Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara.
The five others are Jinjiri Bala, Happy Benedict, Progress Joseph, Adokiye Oyagiri, and Chibuike Peter, alias Rambo.
Justice Emeka Nwite while setting aside the warrant said it has now become a mere academic exercise.
The judge further granted same to the 2nd to 5th Defendant/Applicant in same suit.
Femi Falana, SAN, and Oluwole Aladedoye, SAN, who appeared for the defendants in separate suits, held that the court lacked the jurisdiction to have granted the order.
While Falana filed a motion seeking an order to set aside the January 31 order by Justice Nwite, Aladedoye applied for a stay of execution of the arrest order.
In a motion marked: FHC/ABJ/CS/112/2024 dated February 2 and filed on February 7 by Falana, Ehie sought two orders, including “an order setting aside the order made on January 31 for want of jurisdiction.
“An order of this honourable court staying the execution of the order made on the 31st January 2024, pending the hearing and determination of this application.”
Giving six grounds of argument, Falana argued that the complainant had not filed any criminal charge or motion before the court.
The senior lawyer argued that the court lacked the territorial jurisdiction to entertain the ex-parte application as the alleged offences of conspiracy, attempted murder, murder and arson took place in Port Harcourt, the state capital.
“He submitted that the court lacked the vires to grant an application to arrest and declare his clients wanted in respect of the alleged offences.
“The complainant/respondent (IG) did not adduce evidence of terrorism in the affidavit in support of the application.
“The complainant/respondent did not cite any section of the Terrorism Prevention Act, 2013 (as amended) alleged to have been contravened by the applicants,” he argued.
Aladedoye in a motion on notice dated and filed February 9, on behalf of the five defendants, sought two orders, including
“an order staying execution or further execution of the order(s) of this honourable court made on the 31st of January, 2024, pending the hearing and determination of the appeal filed by the applicants.
“An order of injunction restraining the complainant from carrying out or further carrying out the orders of this honourable court made on the 31st January 2024, pending the hearing and determination of the appeal filed by the applicant in this case.”
Giving a three-ground argument, Aladedoye said that a notice of appeal had already been filed against Justice Nwite’s orders.
According to the senior lawyer, the notice of appeal contains grounds that challenge the jurisdiction of the honourable court.
The Inspector-General had, in a charge marked: FHC/ABJ/CR/25/2024, arraigned the defendants on a seven-count criminal charge bordering on terrorism and murder.

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13 Students Bag First Class, 182 PhD As IAUOE Graduates 5,550, Today

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The authorities of Ignatius Ajuru University of Education (IAUOE), Rumuolumeni, in Rivers State, have stated that 13 students will be graduating with first class while 182 graduands will bag Ph.D during the 42nd convocation ceremony of the university billed to hold today and tomorrow.
The Acting Vice Chancellor of the University, Prof. Okechuku Onuchuku, disclosed this during pre-convocation press briefing held in his office, yesterday, to unveil the programme for the convocation ceremony.
Onuchuku said that the 13 students were among the 4,653 graduands expected to graduate for the 2022/2023 academic session with first degree, while 897 students will be graduating with postgraduate degrees.
The Acting Vice Chancellor while giving the breakdown stated that 13 students made first class, 890 students bagged second class upper while 2,739 students had second class lower for first degree.
He further stated that 182 graduands bagged PhD, 667 got master’s degree and 48 got postgraduate diploma, adding that the convocation ceremony will hold today and tomorrow for first degree graduands and postgraduate graduands respectively.
He said that a total of 47 programmes out of the 54 programmes being undertaken at the first degree levels had been given full accreditation by the National University Commission (NUC) as well as all the programmes at the postgraduate school.
“We have ensured that our programmes both at the first degree and post graduates are in line with the NUC stipulated guidelines and speculations. We have also ensured that we are in line with both our academic and administrative policies,” he said.
Prof. Okechukwu urged the graduating students of the institution to always remember to use thier positions to help their alma mater as well as project the institution in a good image in the larger society.
“Try to ensure you finish any project you want to do, evaluate it first and avoid unfinished or abandoned projects. We will be graduating first degree graduands on Friday while Saturday will be for postgraduates, “he added.
Prof. Onuchukwu also said his administration had achieved a lot since he assumed office as Acting Vice Chancellor, stressing that his administration had improved on the welfare of the staff and the students.
“There are a lot of projects completed in the school; we have also given scholarship to some students and also encouraged departments to do same. We also impacted positively on our host communities”, he said.

Akujobi Amadi

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