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‘Exxon’s Falling Production, Highly Bullish For Oil Prices’

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Last week, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) reported Q 2 2021 earnings in one of big oil’s most anticipated scorecards this earnings season. The United States’ largest oil and gas company posted stellar earnings that proved that the worst for the U.S. shale industry might finally be in the rear view mirror. Exxon’s Q2 earnings swung to a $4.7billion profit from a loss $1.1billion in the year-earlier quarter while revenues more than doubled to $67.7billion (+107.7 percent Y/Y), with both metrics exceeding Wall Street’s expectations.
Exxon said that its impressive earnings were driven by strong oil and natural gas demand as well as the best-ever quarterly chemical and lubricants contributions.
The company was able to achieve those results despite declining production: Q2 overall production slipped 2% Y/Y to 3.6million boe/day, despite production volumes in the Permian Basin jumping 34% Y/Y to 400K boe/day.
Exxon’s Q2 production clip marks the lowest level since the 1999 merger that created the oil and gas giant that we know today.
Meanwhile, H1 Capex clocked in at $6.9 billion, with full-year spending expected to come in at the lower end of its $16billion-$19billion guidance range.
Exxon says cash flow from operating activities of $9.7 billion was the highest in nearly three years and sufficient to cover capital investments, dividends, and pay down debt.
But persnickety shareholders appear unimpressed and have been bidding down XOM shares after the company failed to announce any share buyback program.
Whereas Chevron  (NYSE:CVX), Shell (NYSE:RDS.A),and  TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) all have announced a return to stock buybacks during the current earnings season, Exxon has opted to pay down debt rather than reward shareholders. Exxon suspended buybacks in 2016 as it went on one of the most aggressive shale expansions, particularly in the Permian.
WSJ Heard On The Street’s Jinjoo Lee says Exxon has less flexibility than its peers, thanks to years of overspending followed by a brutal 2020. This has left the company in a vulnerable position, and now Exxon has little choice but to lower its debt levels which have recently hit record highs.
CEO Darren Woods, has reassured investors that reinstating buybacks is “on the table,” though he has reiterated that  “restoring the strength of our balance sheet, returning debt to levels consistent with a strong double-A rating” remains a top priority.
But overall, Exxon’s declining production is the way to go in this environment.
Energy finance analyst at IEEFA, Clark Williams-Derry,a non-profit organisation and Kathy Hipple, has told CNBC that there’s a “tremendous degree” of investor skepticism regarding the business models of oil and gas firms, thanks to the deepening climate crisis and the urgent need to pivot away from fossil fuels. Indeed, Williams-Derry says the market kind of likes it when oil companies shrink and aren’t going all out into new production but instead use the extra cash generated from improved commodity prices to pay down debt and reward investors.
Investors have been watching Exxon closely after the company lost three board seats to Engine No. 1, an activist hedge, in a stunning proxy campaign a few months ago. Engine No. 1 told the Financial Times that Exxon will need to cut fossil fuel production for the company to position itself for long-term success. “What we’re saying is, plan for a world where maybe the world doesn’t need your barrels,” Engine No.1 leader Charlie Penner told FT.
Better still, Exxon has been quickly ramping up production in the Permian, where it’s targeting a production clip of 1 million barrels per day at costs of as low as $15 per barrel, a level only seen in the giant oil fields of the Middle East. Exxon reported that production volumes in the Permian Basin jumped 34% Y/Y to 400K boe/day, and could hit its 1 million b/d target in less than five years.
After years of under performance amid weak earnings, the U.S. shale sector remains on track for one of its best years ever.
According to Rystad Energy, the U.S. shale industry is on course to set a significant milestone in 2021, with U.S. shale producers on track for a record-high hydrocarbon revenue of $195 billion before factoring in hedges in 2021 if WTI futures continue their strong run and average at $60 per barrel this year and natural gas and NGL prices remain steady. The previous record for pre-hedge revenues was $191 billion set in 2019.
Rystad Energy says that cash flows are likely to remain healthy due to another critical line item failing to keep up: Capital expenditure.
Shale drillers have a history of matching their capital spending to the strength of oil and gas prices. However, Big Oil is ditching the old playbook this time around.
Rystad says that whereas hydrocarbon sales, cash from operations, and EBITDA for tight oil producers are all likely to test new record highs if WTI averages at least $60 per barrel this year, capital expenditure will only see muted growth as many producers remain committed to maintaining operational discipline.
For years, ExxonMobil has been one of the most aggressive shale drillers with massive spending and capex. Luckily, the company is no longer too keen on maintaining that tag, which is bullish for the U.S. shale sector.
There are already growing fears that a full return of U.S. shale due to improved commodity prices could muddy the waters for everyone
According to an analysis by the authoritative Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, rising oil prices could allow for a significant return of US shale to the market in 2022, potentially upsetting the delicate re-balancing of the global oil market. 
“As we enter 2022, the US shale response becomes a major source of uncertainty amid an uneven recovery across shale plays and players alike. As in previous cycles, US shale will remain a key factor shaping market outcomes,” Institute Director Bassam Fattouh and analyst Andre as Economist have said.
Obviously, many investors would prefer that this happens later rather than sooner and so far, indications are that this is the most likely trajectory.

By:  Alex Kimani
Kimani writes for Oilprice.com

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NSCDC’s Anti-Vandal Squad Uncovers Artisanal Refinery In Rivers Community

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The Anti-Vandal Squad of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Rivers State Command, has uncovered yet another local refinery situated at Adobi-Akwa settlement in Etche Local Government Area of Rivers State.
The State Commandant, Basil Igwebueze, disclosed this while speaking to journalists shortly after the tour of the Illegal site.
Represented by the Head, Anti-Vandal Squad, CSC Peters Ibiso, Igwebueze said the squad made the discovery following a tipp off, expressing regret that no arrest was made as the  boys fled the site upon sighting the squad.
The cammandant’s representative took the newsmen across a tick forest of about 6-7 kilometers from the main town.
The team sighted where the pipeline vandals tapped into the Well Head of yet to be ascertained multinational company, connected their galvanised pipes to several cooking pots, heat up the crude to produce Automotive Gas Oil (AGO).
In his words, “Upon receiving a tip-off, the Anti-Vandal operatives swung into action to uncover this illegal oil bunkering site. They were in this forest for two days having cordoned the area, unfortunately, the perpetrators upon sighting our men took to their heels, but investigation is still ongoing to effect the arrests of such defiant elements”.
The Anti-Vandal Unit Head further narrated the operation techniques of the operators of local illegal refineries from the point of extraction of crude through vandalism of oil pipelines to cooking in various ovens where the content is subjected to high temperature and transmitted through pipes to reservoirs for storage and onward trans- loading to buyers.
While insisting that the command would not relent in the fight against illegal dealings in petroleum products, he urged the public to have more trust in the NSCDC by providing actionable intelligence that would enhance possible arrest of economic saboteurs in the State.
“Our commitment to continuously work in tandem with the prosecutorial mandate of the corps in order to rid the State of economic saboteurs remains unchanged. We value our informants and most especially the intelligence driven tip-off received from time to time.
“It is also our duty to ensure that our source of information are not disclosed so as to protect our informants. It is therefore our delight that the public will continue to have confidence and trust in us as we together protect the nation’s critical national assets and infrastructure from dare devil vandals”, he stated.

By: Lady Godknows Ogbulu

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Oil Fund Withdrawals Suggest Extended Price Rally

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The world’s largest crude oil exchange-traded fund has bled over $2 billion in less than a year. And it i
s not due to investors finding greener pastures elsewhere with other ETFs; it is the siren call of soaring prices that is prompting this mass exodus.
The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil exchange-traded commodity had assets under management of some $2.5 billion last summer, according to Bloomberg. Now, the publication reports, this is down to $396 million, with withdrawals accelerating over the past few days.
In that, withdrawals seem to be following price trends. Brent earlier this month topped $90 per barrel and, after a short pause earlier this week, is back above that threshold again following the latest Israeli strike on the Gaza Strip amid reports about a possible ceasefire.
While it is true that prices are currently driven higher mainly by geopolitical events, fundamentals are also at play. A growing number of forecasters are updating their predictions for benchmarks this year on expectations of resilient demand and increasingly tighter supply. And investors are following the trend.
Even those who have not sold their ETF holdings in order to invest more directly in the rally are benefitting. That same WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETC generated returns of over 13 percent during the first quarter of the year as opposed to an average 8.8% gain in the S&P 500.
The WisdomTree exchange-traded commodity became the world’s largest oil fund at the beginning of last year. The fund saw inflows of over $1 billion, which poured in as the deflation in oil prices that had begun in late 2022 extended into the new year. Now, the trend has reversed and it has reversed strongly.
The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETC is not the only fund seeing outflows. The U.S. Oil Fund, which used to be the world’s biggest oil fund before the WisdomTree inflows last year and is now the world’s biggest oil fund once again, also saw a flurry of investor exits as benchmarks climbed higher.
According to Bloomberg, the fund’s assets under management currently stand at $1.3 billion, down from some $5 billion during the pandemic.
In further evidence that oil makes money, the Middle East is about to become the only region in the world with three trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is worth $993 billion, Bloomberg reported in March, while the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Kuwait Investment Authority are breathing down its neck.
Meanwhile, investment in transition-related stocks is on the decline, according to data reported by Reuters. The S&P Global Clean Energy Index is down by 10% since the start of the year. In comparison, the S&P 500 Energy Index, which comprises Big Oil names, has gained 16.3%.
The data shows that investors are growing wary of all the promises made by transition advocates as evidence mounts that these were not based on due diligence. Wind and solar stocks suffered a crash last year when this first became clear.
Now, we are witnessing a continued awakening among investors to the challenges and the realistic potential of transition technology and alternative energy sources.
“With conventional energy having its own bull run, I think the alternative funds will struggle for the foreseeable future, and we shall see what the election brings”,  the Managing Director of capital markets at Phoenix Capital Group Holdings told Reuters.
The comment summarizes the challenging situation for alternative energy investment and highlights the rebound of interest in oil and gas, much to the chagrin of decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic.
In both Europe and the U.S., things can get even worse for the transition after the respective elections—in June for European Parliament and in November for U.S. President. It will certainly be an interesting year in energy.
Slav writes for oilprice.

By: Irina Slav

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CNG Initiative: FG Targets 25,000 Jobs, $2.5bn Investment 

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The Programme Director and Chief Executive, Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiatives, Michael Oluwagbemi, has announced the Federal Government’s plan to target over 25,000 jobs and $2.5 billion worth of investment by 2027.
Oluwagbemi made this known during the Presidential CNG stakeholders’ engagement workshop held at BOVAS Auto-Gas Filling Stations, Ajibode Bus-Stop, in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, at the weekend.
He stated that the initiative, which was part of palliative measures to ease the burden of the removal of fuel subsidy, would attract enormous investment and job creation as well as impact positively on the lives of Nigerians.
Meanwhile, he called on Nigerians to embrace the new initiatives by the Federal Government as part of palliatives to cushion the effect of the removal of fuel subsidy in the country.
“On October 1, 2023, when the President gave his speech, he announced that the Presidential CNG initiatives are going to be rolled out as part of palliatives on the removal of fuel subsidy.
“One of our major concerns is to make sure that the transition for the transportation sector is a cheaper, safer, and more reliable source of energy.
“In the coming weeks, we are going to be announcing the conversion incentives programme which will enable Nigerians currently using PMS and Diesel fuel vehicles to be able to convert their vehicles at designated places across the country at a discounted price based on certain pre-qualification under the palliative programme of the Federal Government”, he said.
On the value chain of the initiative, Oluwagbemi explained that the Federal Ministry of Finance is acquiring tricycles and buses that would be assembled and manufactured in Nigeria, with more than five automobile firms being activated.
“The value chain of the programme starts with every one of us. From the point of converting your vehicle, you have created the demand for natural gas.
“If your vehicle is converted by technicians and refuelled by autogas workshops across the country, then you are creating jobs for civil engineers and technicians. You’re creating jobs for the upstream in terms of upstream activities associated with oil and gas.
“And in line with the programme, the Federal Ministry of Finance is acquiring a number of tricycles and buses that will be assembled and manufactured in Nigeria. More than five of our automobile firms have been activated. So, you can see that in terms of job creation, the opportunities for Nigerians are enormous.
“The President has said we need to convert one million vehicles by 2027. We need 1,000 conversion shops and we need over 3,000 filing stations just like this. You can imagine the level of investment required for this.
“In order to sustain one million vehicle conversions by 2027, we need 25,000 technicians. So, the job creation potential is an opportunity for job creation in addition to our gross domestic product, $2.5 billion worth of investment to be mobilised in the next four years and of course more than $25 billion added to our GDP”, he said.
Oluwagbemi further called on Nigerians to embrace the new initiatives by the Federal Government as part of palliatives to cushion the effect of the removal of fuel subsidy in the country.
The representative of BOVAS Filling Station, a private investor in the Presidential CNG Initiatives, Temitope Samson, said, “We have worked with the regulators, we are also working with the Presidential Initiatives on CNG to make sure that standard safety is adhered to. We have also worked with the Standard Organisation of Nigeria to ensure that we have a standard accepted internationally.
“Our role is to ensure that there is availability of CNG across the nation, and to also ensure we have enough kits and tanks that are converted for people to use as many as possible, and to ensure safety and to train others so that anywhere they get to, they have very safe conversion”.
Recall that last year, President Bola Tinubu approved the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas initiative(PCNG-i)
This initiative aims to not only introduce more than 11,500 new CNG-enabled vehicles and provide 55,000 CNG conversion kits for existing vehicles that depend on Premium Motor Spirit but also promote local manufacturing, assembly, and job creation.

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