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Africa’s Most Interesting Untapped Oil Play

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When writing the article on this year’s Top Oil Wildcats, one of the hottest candidates had to be dropped out of the list. Not because the prospect turned out to be sub-commercial, far from it, it remains one of Africa’s most interesting untapped plays, potentially opening up a new country with no previous exposure to the world of energy. As Senegal and Mauritania started to break their way onto the energy maps of Western Africa, Guinea Bissau has remained a relative outlier. At the same time it needs to be pointed out that lack of officially recognized discoveries does not necessarily mean lack of hydrocarbons, as can be attested by the Atum prospect. Atum remains one of the hottest plays in offshore Africa, an overlooked gem that would only need a little bit of political stability to shine.
Recent big discoveries in Senegal’s offshore, such as FAN-1 and SNE (the latter being the largest oil discovery globally in 2014), shortly thereafter followed by new plays in Mauritania’s offshore such as Orca, have unearthed an untapped frontier area that is rich in both oil and gas. Over the past decade Mauritania and Senegal have advanced quite well in terms of appraising their offshore territory, however the southern flank of the MSGBC Basin (short for Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea-Conakry) has been lagging behind. The root causes of this are institutional, although Guinea Bissau adopted a new Petroleum Law in 2014, its implementation was never really tested in real life. In countries where peaceful handover of power is still a questionable concept, the anticipation of hydrocarbon discoveries to come, coupled with a heightened sense of political infighting, has created a cumbersome challenge.
The hydrocarbon story of Guinea Bissau is a fairly standard one for a small West African nation.
The tiny country has no commercial discoveries up to date, with official 2P reserves estimated at 12-13 million barrels (equivalent to the Sinapa oil discovery within Block 02). The last offshore wildcat that Bissau had seen dates back to 2007 when the UK-based firm Premier Oil spudded the Eirozes-1 well in the Esperança block. Drilled into a total depth of 2250 metres in water depth of 100 metres, the well turned out to be dry. This failure has prompted Premier Oil to leave Guinea Bissau’s offshore in December 2007 – thereafter Svenska Petroleum assumed operatorship over the block. Whilst the Atum prospect, located farther out in deeper waters, has been known for quite some time already, financial issues of license-holding firms and the general lack of appetite for genuine frontier drilling has kept the ambition down.
The Atum prospect is located in the westernmost part of Block 02, partially spilling over into Block 04. It is abutted from the left by the Anchova prospect and from the right by the Sardinha prospect (you have guessed it right, the fishy concept extends to Atum, too, the name of the blocks means “tuna”). What is new about the Atum prospect? First and foremost, Atum is assumed to become Guinea Bissau’s first-ever deepwater well. Second, Atum is an analogue of Senegal’s SNE-1: it, too, is a shelf-edge play, in similar water depths (900 metres vs 1100 metres) and targeting the same Upper Albian deposits. The unrisked prospective resources of Atum are assessed at 471 MMbbls, i.e. very similar to those of SNE (563 MMbbls). Should the prospective drillers also aim for the Anchova prospect next to Atum, the combined reserves total would increase to 568MMbbls.
Atum has up to now suffered from one main deficiency – lack of a financially robust oil major. Throughout the 2010s, the Swedish Svenska Petroleum was seeking to farm out interests in Blocks 02 and 04A to fund its ambitious drilling plans. Struggling to go at it completely alone, Svenska reached an agreement in August 2019 with the Chinese CNOOC. CNOOC was to purchase 55.55% of the Sinapa and Esperança license blocks (i.e. Block 2 and Blocks 4A/5A) for the duration of the exploration phase, to be converted into a regular 50% participating interest should the project be deemed commercially viable.
The transaction was assumed to be concluded at some point in Q3 2019, once all the authorities of Guinea Bissau provide all regulatory approvals – needless to say, at that point (just as now) Block 02 was the most promising offshore play that Bissau had. Upon receiving all required approvals, drilling the Atum prospect in Block 02 was supposed to take place in Q1 2020, an ambition that never materialized.
Domestic political turmoil is also one of the main reasons underlying Guinea Bissau’s inability to move swiftly enough on regulatory approvals. For a brief period in early 2020 the West African nation had two presidents simultaneously, pitting the camp of Umaro Embaló, the winner of the presidential elections, and Domingos Simoes who refused to acknowledge the results of the ballot and had Cipriano Cassama elected as interim president. It was the President that was bound to approve CNOOC’s farm-in into Block 02 of Guinea Bissau’s offshore and with both parties fully focused on tripping up political opponents rather than kickstarting the country’s oil and gas sector, the end result was worse than anybody could have forethought.
Against this background, not only did CNOOC quit the intended deal, Svenska Petroleum sold all of its Guinea Bissau acreage (78.57% in Blocks 02, 04A and 05A) to the Norwegian PetroNor in November 2020. It seems likely that PetroNor, joined by the embattled Australian company FAR (21.42% interest), would also prefer to have a go at Atum with a heavy-hitting partner. The acreage license covering exploration works in Block 02 was extended by further 3 years into 2023, therefore the road is clear for interested parties. With this, the spudding of the Atum-1 wildcat is most likely to take place in 2022.
Katona writes for Oilprice.com
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Tinubu Orders Security Chiefs To Restore Peace In Plateau, Benue, Borno

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President Bola Tinubu has ordered a security outreach to the hotbeds of recent killings in Plateau, Benue and Borno States, to restore peace to areas wracked by mass killings and bomb attacks.
National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, disclosed this to State House correspondents after a four-hour security briefing with the President at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja on Wednesday.
“We listened and we took instructions from him. We got new directives…to go meet with the political authorities there,” Ribadu told reporters, adding that Tinubu directed them to engage state-level authorities in the worst-hit regions.
Director-General, National Intelligence Agency, Mohammed Mohammed; Chief Defence Intelligence of the Nigerian Army, Gen. Emmanuel Undianeye; Director-General, Department of State Services, Oluwatosin Ajayi and Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, appeared for the briefing.
The Tide’s source reports that in Plateau State, inter-communal violence between predominantly Christian farmers and nomadic herders spiralled into gory slaughter when gunmen stormed Zikke village in Bassa Local Government early on April 14, killing at least 51 people and razing homes in a single night.
In Benue, at least 56 people were killed in Logo and Gbagir after twin assaults blamed on armed herders.
Meanwhile, in Borno State, eight passengers perished and scores were injured when an improvised explosive device ripped through a bus on the Damboa–Maiduguri highway on April 12.
Ribadu explained that after an extensive briefing, intelligence chiefs received fresh instructions to restore peace, security and stability across Nigeria.
“In particular, Tinubu had ordered immediate outreach to the political authorities in Plateau, Benue and Borno States, and the defence team had gone round those States to carry out his directives and report back.
“We gave him an update on what has been the case and what is going on, and even when he was out there, before coming back, he was constantly in touch. He was giving directives. He was following developments, and we, in charge of the security, got the opportunity today to come and brief him properly for hours. And it was exhaustive.
“We listened and we took instructions from him. We got new directives. The fact is, Mr. President is insisting and working so hard to ensure that we have peace, security and stability in our country. We gave him an update on what is going on, and we also assured him that work is ongoing and continues.
“We also carried out his instructions. We went round, the chiefs were all out where we had these incidents of insecurity in Plateau State, Benue State, even Borno, these particular three states, and we gave him feedback, because he directed us to go meet with the political authorities there,” the NSA explained.
Ribadu described Tinubu as “worried and concerned,” and said he directed that all security arms be deployed around the clock.
The government, he added, believes these steps have already produced measurable improvements, even if the situation is not yet 100 per cent safe and secure.
“He’s so worried and concerned, he insisted that enough is enough, and we are working and to ensure that we restore peace and security and all of us are there. The armed forces are there, the Civil Police, intelligence communities, they are there.
“They are working there 24 hours, and we feel that we have done enough to believe that we are on the right course, and we’ll be able to be on top of things,” Ribadu stated.
The NSA emphasised that combating insecurity was not solely a Federal Government responsibility.
He stated, “The issue of insecurity often is not just for the government. It involves the subunits. They are the ones who are directly with the people, especially if some of the challenges are more or less bordering on community problems.
“Not entirely everything is that, but of course it also plays a significant role. You need to work with the communities, the local governments, and the governors, especially the governors.
“The President will continue to direct that. We should be doing that, and that’s what we are able to. We are very happy and very satisfied with the instructions and directives given by Mr. President this evening.”
In Borno State, the NSA noted that while violence had surged in recent months, the insurgents refused to accept defeat.
He warned that most recent casualties there resulted from improvised explosive devices—”cowardly” IED attacks targeting civilians—and from opportunistic raids that follow any lull in fighting.
“We are getting the cooperation of the leadership at the state level, and everybody. It’s not 100 per cent…but we are going there.
“When you are having peace and you are beginning to get used to it, if one bad incident happens, you forget the periods that you enjoyed peacefully,” he added.
He paid tribute to the “many who do not sleep, who walk throughout, who do not go for any break or holiday”—the soldiers, police and intelligence officers whose sacrifices have created the fragile calm Nigerians now experience.
“They will continue to be there,” he said, adding, “Things have changed in this country…we are on the right track and we will not relent. We will not sit down; we will not stop until we are able to achieve results.”

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FG Laments Low Patronage Of Made-In-Nigeria Products

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A Federal Government agency – the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure, has decried the low patronage of Nigerian-made products by Nigerians.
The agency identified some challenges leading to the low patronage of the local products as affordability and public perception, among others.
Speaking during a stakeholders meeting organised by the agency in Akure, Ondo State capital, yesterday, the Deputy Director of Engineering at NASENI, Mr Joseph Alasoluyi, said Nigerians preferred buying foreign goods compared to local goods.
Alasoluyi, however disclosed that the agency had trained over 50 participants in the production of hand-made products, in a bid to ensure Nigeria-made products are patronised.
He explained that NASENI was set up to promote science, technology, and engineering as a foundation for Nigeria’s development and currently operates 12 institutes nationwide to achieve its objectives.
According to him, the aim of President Bola Tinubu, who is also the overall chairman of NASENI, was to ensure high production and patronage of “our local products thereby creating employment opportunities for many.”
He said, “The idea of this programme is to interface to ensure we produce products using our indigenous technology. This is what NASENI is out for, to ensure that homegrown technologies are encouraged.
“We are out there to ensure we integrate efforts to ensure that local technology is used to develop products within the resources we have.
“ The NASENI’s ‘3 Cs’ – Creation, Collaboration, and Commercialisation – that define NASENI’s strategic mandate: Creating innovations through research, Collaborating with partners to develop and refine products, and Commercialising these solutions to benefit the economy.
“Our achievements include the development of solar irrigation systems, CNG conversion centres, building machines capable of producing up to 1,000 blocks per hour, 10-inch tablets, locally made laptops, and electric tricycles (Keke Napep) set for market launch.”
In his remarks, the Deputy Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Technology, Akure, Prof. Samuel Oluyamo, blamed the Federal Government for not properly funding research in the varsities, also noting that many research outputs were left halfway due to lack of funding and weak linkages between research institutions and industry.
Oluyamo also queried the Federal Government’s commitment to funding research and development, saying many academic innovations remained on the shelve due to a lack of support for commercialisation and poor infrastructure.
“Until we upscale research into mass production, technological growth will remain elusive. The government is not funding research in the universities enough. Thank God for TETfund that is trying in this regime. The major interest in beefing up research in universities and research institutions is really not there,” he said.

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Nigeria Seeks Return To JP Morgan Bond Index

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The Director-General of the Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, has said that Nigeria is in advanced discussions with JP Morgan to re-enter the Government Bond Index and renew investors’ confidence.
Oniha disclosed this on Wednesday at a Nigerian Investors’ Forum on the sidelines of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The DMO boss explained that Nigeria has enjoyed favourable credit assessment among rating agencies in recent times on the back of the sweeping reforms initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Fitch Ratings recently upgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings of seven Nigerian banks and two bank holding companies to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘, noting that the outlooks are Stable.
The affected issuers are Access Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank Limited, Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, First HoldCo Plc, First Bank of Nigeria Ltd, Fidelity Bank Plc and Bank of Industry Limited.
The upgrades of the Long-Term IDRs of the banks followed the recent sovereign upgrade and reflect Fitch’s view that Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile has become less of a constraint on the issuers’ standalone creditworthiness, the rating agency said.
Fitch also upgraded Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ on 11 April, a decision that reflected increased confidence in the government’s broad commitment to policy reforms implemented since its move to orthodox economic policies in June 2023, including exchange rate liberalisation, monetary policy tightening and steps to end deficit monetisation and remove fuel subsidies.
“These have improved policy coherence and credibility and reduced economic distortions and near-term risks to macroeconomic stability, enhancing resilience in the context of persistent domestic challenges and heightened external risks,” Fitch said.
Nigeria was removed from the JP Morgan index in 2015 ostensibly due to its deviation from orthodox monetary policies and influence of capital control in its management of foreign exchange.
Principally due to reduction in oil revenues at the time, Nigeria introduced currency restrictions to defend the naira after it failed to halt a dangerous slide with burning of dollar reserves. The bank had earlier warned Nigeria to restore liquidity to its currency market in a way that allowed foreign investors tracking the index to conduct transactions with minimal hurdles.
“Foreign investors who track the GBI-EM series continue to face challenges and uncertainty while transacting in the naira due to the lack of a fully functional two-way FX market and limited transparency,” the bank said in a 2015 note.
Nigeria was listed in JP Morgan’s emerging government bond index in October 2012, after the Central Bank removed a requirement that foreign investors hold government bonds for a minimum of one year before exiting.
The JP Morgan Government Bond Index reflects investor confidence and opens doors to billions of investment flows, making Nigeria’s proposed re-entry a positive signal to the market and investors.
Oniha explained that talks with JP Morgan were ongoing and had gained momentum in recent times due to the stability created by the FX market reforms.
“With all the reforms that have taken place, particularly around FX, we have started engaging JP Morgan again to get back into the index. We think we are eligible now,” the DMO DG said.

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