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Petrol Subsidy: NNPC Under Pressure
There are indications that the Federal Government through the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) would be under more pressure to fund Nigeria’s petrol under-recovery or a subsidy as the price of Bonny Light rises to $65 per barrel in May, 2021.
This showed an increase of 150 per cent when juxtaposed against $26 per barrel recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 when the outbreak of Coronavirus pandemic, and low demand for crude oil had culminated in low prices.
However, the current high prices of crudes, and by extension petrol is attributed to the re-opening of many economies, the discovery of Coronavirus pandemic vaccines and the efforts of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to achieve market stability.
The 16th Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), which took place via teleconference on Tuesday, April 27, 2021, under the Chairmanship of Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman; and Co-Chair, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Alexander Novak, had raised hope for increased stability.
In a statement, OPEC, had stated, “The Meeting emphasized the ongoing positive contributions of the Declaration of Cooperation in supporting a rebalancing of the global oil market in line with the historic decisions taken at the 10th (Extraordinary) OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on April 12, 2020 to adjust downwards overall crude oil production, and subsequent decisions.
“The meeting highlighted the continuing recovery in the global economy, supported by unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal support, while noting that the recovery is expected to pick up speed in the second half of the year.
The ministerial meeting emphasized, however, that Covid-19 cases are rising in a number of countries, despite the ongoing vaccination campaigns, and that the resurgence could hamper the economic and oil demand recovery.
“The meeting reviewed the monthly report prepared by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), including the crude oil production data for March, 2021, and welcomed the positive performance of the participating countries.
Overall conformity to the production adjustments was 115 per cent in March, 2021, reinforcing the trend of high conformity by the participating countries.
The meeting expressed its “appreciation to the participating countries that performed beyond expectation in March, 2021, with total over-conformed volumes of 1.23 mb/d.”
Commenting on the development, a Port Harcourt-based analyst, Dr. Bala Zaka, said, “With the rise in oil price, it would now cost more to procure and refine crude oil, meaning that the cost would be transferred to Nigeria as the nation currently imports all its petrol from the global market.”
The downstream sector of Nigeria’s petroleum industry was deregulated in March, 2020, when the prices of crude were relatively low at less than $35 per barrel, meaning that the cost of refining and price of petrol were relatively cheaper then.
In its April, 2020 report, OPEC confirmed that, “Crude oil prices collapsed in March, 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008.
“The ramifications of the Covid-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus.”
But the greatest pressure is currently fuelled by the smuggling of the product to neighbouring countries, especially Cameroun, Chad, Niger, and Benin.
The investigation, weekend, showed that increased smuggling of petrol across Nigeria’s borders has put pressure on the NNPC to meet the national daily demand, currently estimated at ‘72.72 million litres’ as the smuggled product goes for between N300 and N500 per litre in these nations.
However, in an interview, the Chairman, Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN), Mr. Adetunji Oyebanji, who is also the Managing Director, 11 Plc, said the huge price differential across the borders, provides an adequate incentive for smugglers.
He said, “The incentive is much. Even if you put the angels at the borders, the differential is too much. The only solution is to bridge the gap and remove the incentive. If not, it will continue.”
Nevertheless, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) said it has sealed many stations nationwide for committing various offences, including under-dispensing and hoarding, but not much has been achieved in the battle against petroleum products diversion.
Nevertheless, the National President of Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, maintained that, once the deregulation is properly outlined and the rules of engagement brought out, its members, comprising major and independent marketers, as well as depot owners, are ready to commence fuel import.
“In reality, there is no way any marketer, retail outlet owners, or tanker and depot owners, would invest in a business they cannot be certain that they would make a profit.”
President Bola Tinubu has ordered a security outreach to the hotbeds of recent killings in Plateau, Benue and Borno States, to restore peace to areas wracked by mass killings and bomb attacks.
National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, disclosed this to State House correspondents after a four-hour security briefing with the President at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja on Wednesday.
“We listened and we took instructions from him. We got new directives…to go meet with the political authorities there,” Ribadu told reporters, adding that Tinubu directed them to engage state-level authorities in the worst-hit regions.
Director-General, National Intelligence Agency, Mohammed Mohammed; Chief Defence Intelligence of the Nigerian Army, Gen. Emmanuel Undianeye; Director-General, Department of State Services, Oluwatosin Ajayi and Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, appeared for the briefing.
The Tide’s source reports that in Plateau State, inter-communal violence between predominantly Christian farmers and nomadic herders spiralled into gory slaughter when gunmen stormed Zikke village in Bassa Local Government early on April 14, killing at least 51 people and razing homes in a single night.
In Benue, at least 56 people were killed in Logo and Gbagir after twin assaults blamed on armed herders.
Meanwhile, in Borno State, eight passengers perished and scores were injured when an improvised explosive device ripped through a bus on the Damboa–Maiduguri highway on April 12.
Ribadu explained that after an extensive briefing, intelligence chiefs received fresh instructions to restore peace, security and stability across Nigeria.
“In particular, Tinubu had ordered immediate outreach to the political authorities in Plateau, Benue and Borno States, and the defence team had gone round those States to carry out his directives and report back.
“We gave him an update on what has been the case and what is going on, and even when he was out there, before coming back, he was constantly in touch. He was giving directives. He was following developments, and we, in charge of the security, got the opportunity today to come and brief him properly for hours. And it was exhaustive.
“We listened and we took instructions from him. We got new directives. The fact is, Mr. President is insisting and working so hard to ensure that we have peace, security and stability in our country. We gave him an update on what is going on, and we also assured him that work is ongoing and continues.
“We also carried out his instructions. We went round, the chiefs were all out where we had these incidents of insecurity in Plateau State, Benue State, even Borno, these particular three states, and we gave him feedback, because he directed us to go meet with the political authorities there,” the NSA explained.
Ribadu described Tinubu as “worried and concerned,” and said he directed that all security arms be deployed around the clock.
The government, he added, believes these steps have already produced measurable improvements, even if the situation is not yet 100 per cent safe and secure.
“He’s so worried and concerned, he insisted that enough is enough, and we are working and to ensure that we restore peace and security and all of us are there. The armed forces are there, the Civil Police, intelligence communities, they are there.
“They are working there 24 hours, and we feel that we have done enough to believe that we are on the right course, and we’ll be able to be on top of things,” Ribadu stated.
The NSA emphasised that combating insecurity was not solely a Federal Government responsibility.
He stated, “The issue of insecurity often is not just for the government. It involves the subunits. They are the ones who are directly with the people, especially if some of the challenges are more or less bordering on community problems.
“Not entirely everything is that, but of course it also plays a significant role. You need to work with the communities, the local governments, and the governors, especially the governors.
“The President will continue to direct that. We should be doing that, and that’s what we are able to. We are very happy and very satisfied with the instructions and directives given by Mr. President this evening.”
In Borno State, the NSA noted that while violence had surged in recent months, the insurgents refused to accept defeat.
He warned that most recent casualties there resulted from improvised explosive devices—”cowardly” IED attacks targeting civilians—and from opportunistic raids that follow any lull in fighting.
“We are getting the cooperation of the leadership at the state level, and everybody. It’s not 100 per cent…but we are going there.
“When you are having peace and you are beginning to get used to it, if one bad incident happens, you forget the periods that you enjoyed peacefully,” he added.
He paid tribute to the “many who do not sleep, who walk throughout, who do not go for any break or holiday”—the soldiers, police and intelligence officers whose sacrifices have created the fragile calm Nigerians now experience.
“They will continue to be there,” he said, adding, “Things have changed in this country…we are on the right track and we will not relent. We will not sit down; we will not stop until we are able to achieve results.”
A Federal Government agency – the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure, has decried the low patronage of Nigerian-made products by Nigerians.
The agency identified some challenges leading to the low patronage of the local products as affordability and public perception, among others.
Speaking during a stakeholders meeting organised by the agency in Akure, Ondo State capital, yesterday, the Deputy Director of Engineering at NASENI, Mr Joseph Alasoluyi, said Nigerians preferred buying foreign goods compared to local goods.
Alasoluyi, however disclosed that the agency had trained over 50 participants in the production of hand-made products, in a bid to ensure Nigeria-made products are patronised.
He explained that NASENI was set up to promote science, technology, and engineering as a foundation for Nigeria’s development and currently operates 12 institutes nationwide to achieve its objectives.
According to him, the aim of President Bola Tinubu, who is also the overall chairman of NASENI, was to ensure high production and patronage of “our local products thereby creating employment opportunities for many.”
He said, “The idea of this programme is to interface to ensure we produce products using our indigenous technology. This is what NASENI is out for, to ensure that homegrown technologies are encouraged.
“We are out there to ensure we integrate efforts to ensure that local technology is used to develop products within the resources we have.
“ The NASENI’s ‘3 Cs’ – Creation, Collaboration, and Commercialisation – that define NASENI’s strategic mandate: Creating innovations through research, Collaborating with partners to develop and refine products, and Commercialising these solutions to benefit the economy.
“Our achievements include the development of solar irrigation systems, CNG conversion centres, building machines capable of producing up to 1,000 blocks per hour, 10-inch tablets, locally made laptops, and electric tricycles (Keke Napep) set for market launch.”
In his remarks, the Deputy Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Technology, Akure, Prof. Samuel Oluyamo, blamed the Federal Government for not properly funding research in the varsities, also noting that many research outputs were left halfway due to lack of funding and weak linkages between research institutions and industry.
Oluyamo also queried the Federal Government’s commitment to funding research and development, saying many academic innovations remained on the shelve due to a lack of support for commercialisation and poor infrastructure.
“Until we upscale research into mass production, technological growth will remain elusive. The government is not funding research in the universities enough. Thank God for TETfund that is trying in this regime. The major interest in beefing up research in universities and research institutions is really not there,” he said.
The Director-General of the Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, has said that Nigeria is in advanced discussions with JP Morgan to re-enter the Government Bond Index and renew investors’ confidence.
Oniha disclosed this on Wednesday at a Nigerian Investors’ Forum on the sidelines of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The DMO boss explained that Nigeria has enjoyed favourable credit assessment among rating agencies in recent times on the back of the sweeping reforms initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Fitch Ratings recently upgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings of seven Nigerian banks and two bank holding companies to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘, noting that the outlooks are Stable.
The affected issuers are Access Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank Limited, Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, First HoldCo Plc, First Bank of Nigeria Ltd, Fidelity Bank Plc and Bank of Industry Limited.
The upgrades of the Long-Term IDRs of the banks followed the recent sovereign upgrade and reflect Fitch’s view that Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile has become less of a constraint on the issuers’ standalone creditworthiness, the rating agency said.
Fitch also upgraded Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ on 11 April, a decision that reflected increased confidence in the government’s broad commitment to policy reforms implemented since its move to orthodox economic policies in June 2023, including exchange rate liberalisation, monetary policy tightening and steps to end deficit monetisation and remove fuel subsidies.
“These have improved policy coherence and credibility and reduced economic distortions and near-term risks to macroeconomic stability, enhancing resilience in the context of persistent domestic challenges and heightened external risks,” Fitch said.
Nigeria was removed from the JP Morgan index in 2015 ostensibly due to its deviation from orthodox monetary policies and influence of capital control in its management of foreign exchange.
Principally due to reduction in oil revenues at the time, Nigeria introduced currency restrictions to defend the naira after it failed to halt a dangerous slide with burning of dollar reserves. The bank had earlier warned Nigeria to restore liquidity to its currency market in a way that allowed foreign investors tracking the index to conduct transactions with minimal hurdles.
“Foreign investors who track the GBI-EM series continue to face challenges and uncertainty while transacting in the naira due to the lack of a fully functional two-way FX market and limited transparency,” the bank said in a 2015 note.
Nigeria was listed in JP Morgan’s emerging government bond index in October 2012, after the Central Bank removed a requirement that foreign investors hold government bonds for a minimum of one year before exiting.
The JP Morgan Government Bond Index reflects investor confidence and opens doors to billions of investment flows, making Nigeria’s proposed re-entry a positive signal to the market and investors.
Oniha explained that talks with JP Morgan were ongoing and had gained momentum in recent times due to the stability created by the FX market reforms.
“With all the reforms that have taken place, particularly around FX, we have started engaging JP Morgan again to get back into the index. We think we are eligible now,” the DMO DG said.