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‘Global Growth’ll Increase Oil Demand, Market Stability In 2021’
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has stressed that the estimated 4.8 per cent global growth will culminate in oil market stability this year.
This is even as the price of Bonny Light, Nigeria’s premium oil grade, dropped from $65.70 to $63.11, while OPEC Basket, and other crudes also dropped marginally over uncertainty about the outcome on the ongoing 49th Meeting of the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) (Videoconference).
However, speaking at the meeting, Secretary General, OPEC, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, stated, “The economic recovery is gaining momentum. This is reflected in our latest global growth estimate of 4.8% for 2021, up from the 4.4% projection we shared at our last meeting. This is a major turnaround from the grim conditions of 2020, with our most recent estimates showing the global economy plummeting by 3.9%.
“2021 is the Year of the Ox in China, a fitting symbol for this sturdy economy. China, which emerged from last year as the only major economy to remain in positive growth territory, continues to exceed expectations and is forecast to grow by 7.4% this year.
“India’s economy, which fell 8.2% in 2020, is now expected to expand by 7.5% in 2021. We had earlier expected these key economies to expand by just under 7% this year. Globally, historic levels of fiscal and momentary support continue to lubricate the economic engines and keep us in forwarding gear.
“Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell, put to rest any idea of an immediate course reversal when it comes to supporting the US economy. This welcome news was followed by the G20 finance ministers and central bankers announcing on Friday (February 26) that they will continue to support a strong global recovery, and they lent support to the idea of boosting the International Monetary Fund’s firepower so it can further assist developing countries.”
Barkindo,, who noted that the actions of the United States will also impact positively on the market, stated, “The Joseph Biden administration’s massive fiscal stimulus package, which passed its first legislative hurdle by winning US House approval last Saturday, continues to kindle hope for a sustained rebound. Against the backdrop of encouraging developments, oil demand remains on course to grow by 5.8 mb/d to just around 96 mb/d.
“The encouraging global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are upside factors, especially beyond this quarter. Initial data from January this year show that crude oil processing in India rose to its highest level since November, 2019, fuelled by rising economic and industrial activity.
“This positive regional outlook is underscored by the comments of India’s Minister of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Steel, Dharmendra Pradhan, at the recent IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Pradham stated that his country’s energy demand is expected to rise by 3% per annum through to 2040, around three times the anticipated global demand increase.
“Our capable OPEC analysts will go into more detail about inventory levels in a moment. For now, let me say that the outlook continues to move in the right direction, and the data we have before us reflects improvements over last month’s report to this Committee. Preliminary data for January shows that OECD commercial stocks declined by around 11mb. At 3 billion barrels, they were around 140mb higher than the same time one year ago and about 126mb above the average for 2015 to 2019.
“Turning to the latest figures on days of forwarding cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 1.4 days from December to January, to 69.2 days, which is slightly lower than a year earlier, but 7.4 days above the pre-pandemic five-year average.
“The oil storage situation also appears to be aided by a refocus in the US tight oil sector from production to generating cash flow and rewarding investors. US crude production fell by more than 10% in mid-February following extreme winter in key producing states like Texas, helping to offset the rise in US crude stocks due to the significant drop in refinery utilization rates. Also regarding inventories, global short-term floating storage has fallen every month since October and stood at 142mb in January this year, significantly less than the 250mb reached in mid2020.”
He, however, added, “In a further sign of light on the horizon, the key benchmarks have risen steadily so far this year along with other commodities, in particular metals, and traders continue to take a strong positive position in oil. Since January, the futures price structure of all three key markets has been in sustained backwardation, an indication that the market is tightening and the rebalancing process is gaining speed. We have come a long way from a year ago. The days of GDP and oil demand figures being in the red because of the pandemic-induced shock appear to be behind us.”
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Tinubu Urges Nigeria, S’Africa To Strengthen Ties For Africa’s Dev
President Bola Tinubu yesterday stated that Nigeria and South Africa share a collective destiny to collaborate for the betterment of the African continent.
He stressed that both countries must intensify cooperation across various sectors, adding that the success of the partnership lies in the implementation, not merely the signing of Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs).
Tinubu made this remark yesterday during his opening address as he co-chaired the 11th session of the Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission alongside President Cyril Ramaphosa in Cape Town, South Africa.
He said, “Our successive governments on both sides have recognised our shared history of collaboration and cooperation. We must ensure that the spirit of collaboration and cooperation between our two leading countries in Africa intensifies and deepens under the leadership of our respective nations. This is not a matter of choice but of destiny, which includes a historical responsibility to the African people.”
The Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission, established in 1999, aims to strengthen the ties of friendship and cooperation between the two nations. The first Heads of State-level session took place in Pretoria in October 2019.
Tinubu noted that this year’s meeting coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Commission, disclosing that Nigeria and South Africa have signed about 36 MoUs that reflect their friendship and cooperation.
The President, however, stressed that MoUs alone do not constitute success and must be backed by consistent implementation.
“The BNC has existed since 1999, with approximately three dozen MoUs and agreements in operation. The BNC has come of age. I must, however, caution that we should not count our successes by the number of MoUs signed. They are mere pieces of paper until we implement them in both spirit and letter,” he explained.
Tinubu called for a special emphasis on strengthening the relationship between the youth populations of both countries, stating that Nigeria and South Africa, with their large youthful demographics, can significantly boost their economic development.
According to him, “My desire is that we accelerate youth development. Beyond natural resources, our most precious resource is our youthful population. These young people represent the future. We must invest in their skills and potential for the good of the continent. My administration has embraced an inclusive approach, placing young people in charge of key sectors of the economy, believing that the future must start now.”
The President also assured Ramaphosa of Nigeria’s commitment to strengthening the partnership between the two nations and warned against external forces that might be threatened by the alliance between Africa’s two largest economies.
“As the adage goes, ‘The glory of the eagle does not please the kite.’ Let us remain mindful of the overt and covert hostilities that our partnership may attract. If we remain vigilant, committed, and persistent, we will soar like eagles over the predators. We must stay united in purpose,” Tinubu stated.
He also called for the creation of an anti-illegal mining group, stressing that Africa’s natural resources should benefit its people.
“One issue I want the BNC to explore is the establishment of an anti-illegal mining group. Illegal mining is robbing our nations of precious resources that could foster development. Sponsored by powerful external forces, such mining is causing strife, poverty, environmental degradation, and undermining governance. We cannot allow this scourge to hinder our progress,” Tinubu said.
He urged South Africa’s support for Nigeria’s bid to gain full membership in the G20, BRICS, and the BRICS New Development Bank, adding, “Nigeria would like to join South Africa and the African Union in the G20.”
Earlier, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa highlighted Nigeria’s role as a host for several South African companies and reaffirmed his country’s openness to Nigerian businesses, citing numerous investments and operations in South Africa.
He acknowledged the need to remove existing barriers to greater investment.
Ramaphosa said, “We need to remove the remaining constraints to investment and address challenges faced by companies in both countries. We are encouraged by the steps being taken under your leadership to improve Nigeria’s business environment, which provides assurances to investors, including South African companies.”
He also highlighted measures to simplify visa processes for Nigerian business people, including five-year multiple-entry visas for eligible applicants and a streamlined process for Nigerian tourists.
Ramaphosa expressed hope that the 11th Session of the Bi-National Commission would solidify cooperation in critical areas and stressed the importance of implementing previously agreed-upon decisions and monitoring progress.
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PENGASSAN Plans Showdown With Oil Firms Hiring Expatriates
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) is preparing for a face-off with oil companies that are prioritising expatriates for job opportunities while neglecting to hire qualified Nigerians.
PENGASSAN President, Festus Osifo, gave this indication during his address at the union’s National Executive Council meeting, held in Abuja, yesterday.
Osifo said the growing trend by companies to employ foreigners, mainly Indians, is contrary to the local content regulations which seek to increase local content participation to 70 per cent by 2027.
He stressed that many companies have abused the expatriates quota outlined by the government, fuelling unrest and resentment among Nigerians who feel excluded from opportunities in their industry.
He said, “A pressing concern is the high number of expatriates in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, mainly from India. While skilled foreign workers contribute to economic development, the current situation demands attention.
“We have been calling names. We are not shying away from calling names. We called out a company called Indorama and others and the issue was fixed in the past.”
Osifo further called on the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board and the Ministry of Interior to stop granting employment licenses to every foreigner who comes into the country seeking employment.
He said, “We are also holding to account a government institution called Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board and the Ministry of Interior, these are the people that give permits for these expatriates to come. If you go to some of these companies, vulcanizers and conductors are Indians.
“Even operators are Indians. And that should not go. So, rising from this NEC meeting, we are going to resolve that we will do everything possible to hold them to account.
“This is not the first company where this has been done. In the company where I work, for example, Total Energy, in 2015, it was a battle. It was war. We took it to them, and we ensured that the expatriate index was greatly reduced. So, we have done it before. We can also do it again. Because the more you send these expatriates away, the more, the management of these companies will open up the system and employ more Nigerians. It is so bad that our institutions are weak.
“The people that fight for the workers in Angola are not even trade unions. They are government institutions. If you work in Angola for a while, you must go back to your country and reapply again. And they ensure that the jobs that they give you in Angola are those technical jobs. So, our government must sit up. Our institutions must sit up.”
“NCDMB, Ministry of Interior, they must sit up and do what they ought to do. So, it is a battle that we are much more prepared to fight. And very, very soon, we will confront it head-on and frontally.”
Osifo also requested clarification on the proposed tax reforms bill, particularly in relation to the revenue collection mandate by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority and the Igerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
The association asked the government to extend the tax exemption level to persons earning N150,000 per month.
“On the issues of tax reform, we are currently examining the bill. So, one of the areas that we have seen in the bill that is quite okay is to give tax relief to people who are around minimum wage. What is there in the bill today is about N800,000 per annum.
“And also, for businesses whose turnover is about 50 million Naira, we found that most of the nano and micro businesses fell within that range of 50 million. So, it’s quite good. But, what we have been advocating is that that N800,000 is too small. The government should expand it to persons earning N100,000 to N150,000 per month. So, we are studying the bill, and we are looking at those provisions that are salient. These are what we will bring up at the public hearing.
“So, when we are done with all these, we will send you a copy of our position as PENGASSAN. And in addition to what I just said, there is also a particular area that we are looking at. Today, we have NMDPRA. We have NUPRC. So, they largely pay our members from the cost of connection. But today, they want to replace that with the Nigerian Revenue Service.
“The service will be collecting revenue across the board, both from the oil and gas and customs. So, we are currently studying that provision. We would still need clarification on these issues. We are asking when these are going to form our proposal to the National Assembly during the public hearing,” he added.
When asked if any workers became unemployed as a result of the recent divestment by international oil companies, Osifo said, “We can confirm to you that as of today, there is no single job that has been lost in any of these companies as a result of divestment.
“This is because we realise that our primary function is how to safeguard jobs for our members. First, you safeguard jobs, then you start talking about pay enhancement. If the job is not there, you won’t be able to talk about pay enhancement because what are you enhancing? So first, you safeguard the job.
“So in each of the agreements that were signed, it was clearly stated, all our jobs will be safeguarded.”
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NAFDAC Busts Fake Alcohol Factory In Lagos
The National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) has dismantled a makeshift factory in the Oke Arin market, Lagos Island, where counterfeit alcoholic beverages were being illegally produced.
According to a statement via its X, yesterday, the agency, acting on a complaint, conducted a raid that led to the arrest of three men and the seizure of counterfeit drinks, empty bottles, and packaging materials.
According to NAFDAC, the seized products, which included fake versions of popular alcoholic brands, were valued at over ¦ 180 million.
The main suspect, Mr. Tochukwu Henry, confessed to refilling bottles labelled as Rémy Martin with ST-Rémy contents.
He also admitted to employing two other individuals to assist in the operation.
The statement said, “NAFDAC has raided a makeshift factory in Oke Arin market, Lagos Island, following a complaint about the illegal production of alcoholic beverages. Three men were apprehended and various counterfeit alcoholic drinks, empty bottles, and packaging materials were seized.
“The products, valued at over ¦ 180 million, included fake versions of popular brands. The main suspect, Mr. Tochukwu Henry, confessed to refilling bottles labelled as Rémy Martin with ST-Rémy contents and employing two others to assist in the illicit operation.
“All suspects are currently in custody for further investigation. NAFDAC calls on the public to remain vigilant, especially during the festive season, and to report suspicious activities and products to the nearest NAFDAC office.”
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