Business
Firm Foresees Record Growth Amid Fiscal Imbalances For Nigeria
Nigeria will return to growth path in 2021 but external and fiscal imbalances will pose downside risks to the economy, sigma pensions Limited has predicated.
Sigma Pensions Limited, in its report released on Monday titled ‘Nigeria 2021 outlook: A return to normalcy, but tough policy choices lie ahead’, noted that Nigeria continued to grapple with the aftershocks of the coronavirus recession as external and fiscal imbalances propagate negative shocks across the exchange rate and inflation channel.
The report said resulting macroeconomic turmoil would require a return to credible policy settings, implying that more than ever before, the direction of policy responses would be crucial.
It said, “As with the global environment, we expect Nigeria’s economy to experience a V-shaped bounce back from a recession in 2020 as the removal of most COVID-19 restrictions should benefit the non-oil sector where the restrictions hurt activities badly.
“That said, oil output is likely to remain in recession as compliance with OPEC+ curbs restrains oil production to 1.7-1.8mbpd, a development likely to remain in place until H2 2021.
“The recovery in growth is where the good news ends. We view the combination of still weak oil exports and a resurgence in import demand pointing to large external imbalances over 2021.”
Given current policy settings around the exchange rate, the report saw limited options for financing the looming current account deficit and expected naira weakness over the year.
It said, “Alongside these FX pressures, we see soaring food prices, occasioned by an underwhelming 2020 crop harvest, border closures, higher electricity tariffs and petrol prices (following the move to remove gasoline subsidies) as fuelling a surge in inflation towards 16 per cent levels in 2021 (2020e: Avg. 13.2 per cent).
“Though the CBN has ignored inflationary pressures and muddled through the FX situation over 2020, we think the economy’s return to growth and the need to stem the widening parallel market premiums will drive a shift to monetary tightening at some point over 2021.”
According to the report, fiscal imbalances loom large for the second consecutive year with the Federal Government proposing another record deficit (N5.2tn) to be financed via large foreign and domestic borrowings.
It said in 2020, the liquidity fallout from CBN’s decision to bifurcate domestic Treasury bill markets spurred a rally across naira assets.
The report said, “In 2021, we think financing the projected fiscal deficit alongside CBN’s recently introduced CBN special bills could help drain the remaining portion of the large liquidity overhang.
“Accordingly, we expect the rebalancing across Nigeria’s financial markets to run its course over 2021, implying less-liquid conditions.
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The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Company have inaugurated a Joint Technical Committee (JTC) aimed at advancing local content implementation during the operational phase of the 650,000 barrels per day plant.
A statement from the Directorate of Corporate Communications of the Board noted that the inauguration ceremony took place at the Dangote Free Trade Zone, Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State.
The statement also said the inauguration marks a pivotal moment in fostering strategic collaboration between the both institutions, and was a significant move to reinforce local content development in the oil and gas sector.
Presided over by the Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the Group Vice President, Oil and Gas, Dangote Group, Chief Edwin Devakumar, the event featured the formal sign-off of the Committee’s Terms of Reference (ToR), a guided tour of the refinery, other critical facilities, and the official commencement of the JTC’s responsibilities.
According to the Board, the visit also featured the presentation of the certificate of the Nigerian Content Downstream Operator of the Year Award won by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Company at the inaugural ‘Champions of Nigerian Content Awards’ held recently in May.
The NCDMB’s boss made the presentation to the President of the Dangote Group, Alhalji Aliko Dangote, who expressed delight at the recognition, noting that he would display the certificate proudly at his office.
Ogbe congratulated the Dangote Group on the successful development and commissioning of the largest single train refinery in the world, as well as petrochemical and fertiliser plants, describing the projects as a historic milestone not for Nigeria alone, but for the entire continent.
He emphasized that the Dangote Refinery stands as a testament to the success of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act of 2010 and the transformative potential of Nigerian-led industrial projects.
“At an optimal daily production capacity of 650,000 barrels, this refinery will significantly enhance Nigeria’s energy security and contribute to the supply of refined petroleum products across West Africa.
“Nigerians, have to own the plant, we have to make sure that the plant works well. We have to secure it, we have to maintain it. The NCDMB would continue to collaborate with Dangote Petroleum Refinery”, Engr Ogbe said.
Highlighting the need to ensure more value retention in the sector, as mandated by the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act (NOGICD) 2010, the Board’s helmsman demanded compliance with Sections 32 and 33 of the NOGICD Act, with particular reference to local manpower utilization and requirements for NCDMB’s approval prior to the engagement of expatriates.
“The NOGICD Act stipulates that no expatriate can be employed in any organization in the oil and gas industry without the prior approval of the NCDMB. We will work with you, We’ve to protect jobs for Nigerians. It’s critical to job creation, skills development, and national capacity building in line with the ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu”, he said.
He commended the firm for training and employing Nigerian engineers, saying the collaboration will ensure that qualified Nigerians were given opportunities across all operational roles, while also urging the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals to support the Board’s initiative which aims at developing oil and gas industrial parks across the country to foster local content and manufacturing in the sector.
He noted that the Nigerian Oil and Gas Parks Scheme (NOGaPS) seeks to create an enabling environment for Small and Medium Enterprises in the sector.
“NOGaPS was conceived by the Board to develop facilities close to oil fields where manufacturing of oil and gas components, as well as research and development, can be carried out.
“We would like Dangote to support one of our major activities, which is the oil and gas industrial parks scheme. The parks are aimed at creating an enabling environment for SMEs in the industry to do fabrications and create more jobs for Nigerians”, the NCDMB’S boss stated.
In his welcome address, the Dangote Group Vice President, Devakumar, highlighted that the refinery project and NCDMB have been working together, promoting local content development during the construction stages of the project.
“We can’t say we have achieved everything, because there is opportunity to do more. We’re grateful to the NCDMB for all their support and advice. As entrepreneurs, we’re trying to optimise costs. It’s a Nigerian company, it’s also an entrepreneur-driven company. As a Nigerian company, the focus will be on Nigerian content. As an entrepreneur-driven company, it will be cost-focused”, he noted.
Devakumar underscored the long-standing commitment of the Dangote Group to national development and capacity building, saying that the Group’s vision is to grow Nigeria’s industrial landscape.
High points of the visit, according to the Corporate Communications Directorate of the NCDMB, was the inauguration of the Committee members.
The statement from the NCDMB further added that the committee is to ensure the implementation of local content in the refinery’s operations, while its core objectives include promoting the use of Nigerian skilled manpower, services, and locally sourced materials in compliance with Section 3 of the NOGICD Act.
The Tide learnt that the committee will also support Dangote Refinery in aligning its operational procedures with the Act’s requirements.
In his acceptance remarks, Director of Corporate Services at NCDMB and Chairman of the Committee, Mr. Abdulmalik Halilu, expressed gratitude to the leadership of both organizations, reiterating the Committee’s dedication to upholding the highest standards of local content enforcement and fostering measurable outcomes that will benefit the nation’s economy.
Nigeria’s Oil and Gas industry leaders have defended the Nigerian local content policy, rejecting claims that it inflates business costs in the oil and gas sector.
The leaders, who made the defence during the recent Nigerian Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy week held in Abuja, the nation’s capital, cautioned that such criticisms jeopardizes the nation’s industrial progress.
They lauded the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), for what they described as its pivotal role in building indigenous capacity and fostering innovation.
In a panel session titled “Technology as a Business Strategy”, panellists championed NCDMB’s contributions, emphasizing its success in driving local expertise and technological advancement.
In his remarks, Group Chief Executive Officer of Pana Holdings, Dr. Daere Akobo, dismissed critics of local content, arguing that its benefits to Nigeria’s economy far outweighs any perceived cost increases.
“Claims that local content drives up costs are misguided. How can you prioritize cost over GDP growth? Where will our youth find jobs? Undermining local content for short-term gains is a mistake. Nigeria must stay the course”, he said.
He highlighted his company’s work on Africa’s first digital refinery, a pioneering project showcasing the synergy between technology and local content, and also identified fragmented data in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector as a key barrier to cost efficiency.
Akono said, “Technology drives accountability and curbs cost inflation. But our data remains siloed. Consolidation is critical for industry efficiency.”
Also speaking, Managing-Director of Coleman Cables and Wires, Mr. George Onafowokan, praised NCDMB’s data-driven approach, crediting it for significant strides in local content development.
“Data is the backbone of growth. Effective data collection and accessibility are vital. Thanks to NCDMB, we’ve achieved 52% local content—a remarkable milestone”, he said.
The panellists unanimously agreed that integrating technology, consolidating data, and strengthening institutions like NCDMB are critical to building a resilient and competitive oil and gas sector.
He urged policymakers, operators, and international stakeholders to reject narratives blaming local content for rising costs and rather advocate for robust frameworks and investments to drive inclusive growth and long-term industry stability.
Similarly, speaking at the NOG week, representatives from Ghana, and other African nations have underscored the growing influence of Nigeria’s local content framework and urged stronger cross-border policy alignment.
In his remark, NCDMB’S pioneer Executive Secretary, Ernest Nwapa, highlighted the Nigerian oil and gas sector’s resurgence, saying it is driven by increased production, deregulation, and improved governance, while also emphasizing the need for long-term sustainability to sustain the momentum.
“Africa is a cornerstone of Nigeria’s foreign policy. Initiatives like the West African and African Gas Pipelines, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ‘Nigeria First, Africa Next’ strategy are evidences of Nigeria’s continental commitment.
“When Nigeria enacted its local content law, it faced Western criticism from bodies like the WTO and EU, who labelled it anti-trade. Today, over 16 African nations and even the United States have adopted similar laws. Nigeria must lead again, driving investments that benefit the entire continent”, he said.
In similar vein, Deputy Chief Executive of the Petroleum Commission of Ghana, Nasir Alfa Mohamed, noted that African nations have long looked to Nigeria for energy sector leadership, calling for the dismantling of barriers to regional integration and advocated for standardized regulations.
“A Ghanaian company should be able to compete for contracts in Nigeria based solely on merit. We need joint regulatory bodies, mutual recognition of standards, and robust support for platforms like the African Oil Forum”, he noted.
Mohamed also highlighted Ghana’s growing partnerships with Nigeria and others, including a memorandum of understanding with Uganda, noting that Ghana is currently the only African nation participating in the International Upstream Forum.
In his speech, Authority Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Engr. Farouk Ahmed, represented by Prof. Zainab Gobir, stressed the importance of joint infrastructure, uniform tariffs, and coordinated regulations for true economic integration.
“We must uphold our sustainability commitments and support each other in meeting them.
“The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) is a model, particularly its Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund, designed to de-risk investments in gas and infrastructure projects. We collaborate closely with NCDMB to strengthen local content, ensuring regulations support fair participation”, he said.
Meanwhile, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, has reaffirmed the nation’s strategic role in regional energy cooperation, noting that the country accounts for nearly 30% of Africa’s oil reserves and 33% of its gas.
“Our host community development model is a success, fostering stability in oil-producing regions and serving as a blueprint for others”, Komolafe said.
He highlighted the NUPRC’s 17 forward-looking regulations and new frameworks for deepwater development, alongside a production optimization programme built on inter-agency and operator collaboration.
The NUPRC boss also praised President Tinubu’s recent Executive Order, which he said enhances local content laws by prioritizing human capacity development and boosting investor confidence.
“International oil companies now recognize Nigeria’s robust local expertise, making it a key investment draw. We’re exporting our local content model to other African nations”, he said.
Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa
A concerned group of stakeholders under the auspices of Khana Coastal Communities has made a passionate appeal to the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Hydrocarbon Remediation Restoration Project (HYPREP) to include the removal of Nipa palms which has taken over the positions of mangroves in the area as part of the ongoing Ogoni Clean Up Exercise.
The group, which decried the invasive and destructive effects of Nypa fructicans, commonly known as Nipa palms, on the ecosystem of the affected communities, made their appeal in a Press Statement issued shortly after the inspection and survey of the creeks and coastlines of affected communities.
The communities are Kwiri, Kereken, Kaa, Gwara, Sii, Kpean, Tehnnama, Bane, Kalaoku, and Opuoku, all in Khana Local Government Area of Ogoni, Rivers State.
Signed on behalf of the affected communities by comrades Emmanuel Goteh Bie, Raymond Nwibani, and Chief Barineka Tonwe, the statement emphasized the need for urgent intervention to clear the Nypa fructicans and replace them with mangroves which provided sustainable habitat for aquatic species in the affected communities.
The group commended the Federal Ministry of Environment and HYPREP for their commitment to the Ogoni cleanup process and urged all stakeholders involved in the process not to renege on their complementary roles.
The statement read in part: “As you have seen, the Nypa fructicans has taken over our creeks, displacing native mangroves and aquatic life. The impact on our communities has been severe, with many of our people struggling to make a living due to the depletion of fish and other aquatic resources.
“We commend the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project (HYPREP) for its efforts in restoring native mangroves in Ogoni, particularly in the Bomu Community. However, we are alarmed by the unintended consequences of removing invasive Nypa fructicans, which has led to the disappearance of fish and aquatic life, threatening the livelihoods of our coastal communities.
“We believe that the removal of Nypa fructicans and replanting of native mangroves will help revive our aquatic life and sustain the livelihoods of our people.”
The group passed a vote of confidence on the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Abbas, and HYPREP Coordinator, Prof. Nenibarini Zabbey, for what it described as their unwavering efforts in ensuring the success of the Ogoni cleanup exercise.
They called on the Federal Government to release their counterpart funding to HYPREP without delay to sustain the pace of progress recorded in the clean up process.
“The cleanup exercise is commendable, and any delay in funding could stall the progress and undermine the efforts of all stakeholders. We urge the government to prioritize the Ogoni cleanup exercise and provide the necessary support to ensure its success”, they stated.
They also used the opportunity to caution against the antics of self-inflicted activists or bodies that might attempt to hijack the cleanup agenda and create unnecessary agitation, and assured the total support of the affected communities to HYPREP’s activities to enhance the holistic success of the Ogoni clean up exercise.
Bemene Taneh
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