Politics
2015 Presidency: The Odds
As the February 14
Presidential election draws nearer by the day, and parties put finishing touches to their strategies to either retain or gain power, permutations as to which party waxes more or gains more ground are rife. As events unfold, there is little doubt that the race will be between the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC).
Following the emergence of incumbent president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and former Head-of-State, General Mohammadu Buhar (GMB), as the candidates of the PDP and APC respectively, the battle for Nigeria’s presidency has begun in earnest.
As expected, both presidential candidates have as much chances of emerging victorious as their followers chose to portray or make keen observers believe. One certainty, however, is that at the end of the day, only one aspirant will emerge. So, what are the odds against, or in favour of the two presidential gladiators.?
For GEJ, there is no doubt that the catch phrase, “A breath of fresh air” that was the crux of his pre-2011 campaign that saw him coast to victory in the 2011 election seem to have fizzled out. So have all the goodwills and promises of a better Nigeria.
Pundits have expressed the belief that the disillusionment trailing the GEJ presidency garnered so much momentum because it basically originated from what is largely seen as within the inner chambers of the PDP, the very heart of the party caucus.
Key areas in which GEJ has been identified to have given a lackluster attention and hence deemed to have failed could be summerised into corruption and insecurity, and a major advocate in this wise is former president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
Being a key figure in PDP, whatever the former president says cannot be dismissed as mere frivolity. Comparatively, there is the belief that no matter what can be said about former President Obasanjo, he at least made some efforts against corrupt officials when he was in charge, even if such efforts were often viewed as sectional and tokenistic.
In his recent autobiography titled “My Watch”, Obasanjo said of corruption in GEJ’s first tenure; “under Jonathan we seem to have gone from frying pan to fire. If in the past corruption was in the corridors of power, it would seem now to be in the sitting room, dinning room and bedroom of power”.
The former president further drove his point when he alleged that incremenating corruption-related documents against a former governor was ordered to be removed from a file because the culprit was close to GEJ.
As a result of his perceived inability to address issues of corruption, therefore, many Nigerians, as amplified by the opposition, do not see GEJ as ready to fight corruption, which no doubt, has over the years proven to be the bane of Nigeria’s woes, both within and outside the shores of Nigeria.
The same reason is given for GEJ’s inability to secure lives and properties in his domain, as exemplified by the increasing and more deadly activities of the terrorist sect, Boko Haram, which had sent thousands to their early grave, and has held over 200 Chibok secondary school girls hostage since April 15, 2014.
In a summarizing manner, the founder of Adoration Ministry, Enugu Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, during his end-of-year mass on the eve of 2015, said GEJ had surrounded himself with very corrupt officials. As a result, the President, he said, has turned a blind eye to their corrupt activities while millions of Nigerians wallow in abject poverty and endless insecurity.
According to Mbaka, “Jonathan has ruled for six years. We need a change. NEPA (electricity) is not working because of corruption. The privatization of public companies has not yielded any fruit because of corruption.
“Jonathan surrounded himself with very corrupt officers who advise him. Nigerians are sick and tired of wasting innocent lives without government doing enough to stop the destruction.
“Up till now, nobody knows the whereabouts of the innocent Chibok girls kidnapped by Boko Haram and we say we have a government that cannot guarantee the welfare, safety and security of the citizens.
“Nigerians are calling for change. We need change. We don’t want to move from bad luck to bad luck. Nigerians want to move from bad luck to good luck”, he said.
While acknowledging the stand by the opposition in a piece titled “Can Jonathan survive this blitzkriegs?” in This Day, Simon Kolawole identified four categories of GEJ’s critics: Opposition figures and other political opponents; those who lost out in the political game; those northerners who are still bitter that Jonathan “hijacked” power after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010; and those who have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan as they are sincerely critical of certain aspects of his stewardship.
Kolawole had no qualms with opposition figures and other political opponents because they must do their bidding.
“There is no way APC would come out and praise Jonathan; that is political suicide. They want power. They want his job. Theirs is to say Jonathan or PDP has not done well and that if Nigerians give them a chance, they would do much better.
“This is a universal characteristic of opposition politics. You can argue that they do not always work with facts, but what is politicking? PDP would do the same if APC was in power”, he said.
For those who lost out in the political game, the writer observed that many politicians, who supported GEJ in 2010 and 2011, feel abandoned, “they feel like a deflated orange: squeezed, sucked and dumped. They feel Jonathan treated them to a one-night stand, whereas they wanted an affair.
“Some wanted appointments; others simply desired respect and recognition. But they are bitter that Jonathan jilted them after getting what he wanted. In no time, they became his sworn enemies”, he said.
The northerners who are embittered that GEJ hijacked their right after the death of President Yar’Adua feel so because they say when they conceded power to the South in 1999, they did it with the understanding that Obasanjo would do only one term. But he did the maximum two terms.
Consequently, PDP, as the ruling party, agreed to north/south power rotation every eight years. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died prematurely.
“Jonathan took over and refused to let so. To some northerners, there is nothing Jonathan can do to make them happy. Even if he turns Nigeria to Dubai, their message is clear; Thank you and just get out of here”, he said.
The last category, which have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan are merely genuinely bothered at his handling of critical issues such as corruption and Boko Haram.
“In truth, Jonathan lost a lot of sympathizers with the Chibok School girls’ saga, which turned into the ‘Na only you waka come’ tragicomedy in the corridors of power”, Kolawole concluded.
As a word of advise, and in seeming appreciation of the political scenario, Kolawole noted: “It is not in the best interest of President Jonathan to lump all his critics together. As a leader, he has to sit down, analyse his critics and their criticisms, and work out his actions and reactions appropriately.
“He sure has millions of critics, like any other leader. People criticize with different motives. People have different agenda even when they are saying the same thing. Unfortunately, you will miss the massage when you lump everyone together and respond to every critic and criticism with cynicism and antagonism”.
As is usual with incumbency and opposition in politics, the weakness of the ruling government is what opposition latches upon to score its points, and the APC, seem to be doing a good job of it.
Against an allegedly “weak” GEJ, the APC, which is the leading opposition party, has fielded a perceived “strong” candidate in GMB, based on his track record. One key factor that constitutes a plus to GMB is his brief tenure as Military Head of State from the 1st of January 2004 to August 2005.
Alongside his second in command, late Major-General Tunde Idiagbon, GMB launched the popular War Against Indiscipline (WAI), through which they attempted to set a new road-map for the country’s politics.
They introduced strict economic and political policies that have been widely described as “Buharism”. It saw him refuse to adopt the IMF conditionality to devalue the naira. While his critics blamed him then for the resultant job losses, closure of some businesses, and decline in living standards, his admirers commended him for adopting unique economic measures that enabled his government to reduce inflation, curb import of needless goods and curtail crude oil theft.
Given his history as a leader with a strong character, GMB is also described as incorruptible and hence seem as the messiah that Nigeria needs to combat the ailing corruption-infested Nigerian economy.
Ironically, GMB’s critics also consider his strong personality as a minus, saying that he would not be a listening president like GEJ. But his followers have expressed strong feelings that the former Army General’s popularity is increasing by the day, and before February 14 where the pendulum for the presidency will swing to will be too glaring not to see in favour of the APC candidate.
Moreso, as is popularly said,There is little doubt that Nigerians want to change, one that would loosen the stranglehold of corruption in the nation’s polity. What is, however, in contention is who represents that change so yearned for. Is it a repented GEJ, or a brand new GMB?
Soibi Max-Alalibo
Politics
Reps Constitution Review Committee Holds Zonal Hearing For Rivers, C’River, Akwa Ibom In Calabar

A press statement issued by the Chief Press Secretary to the Cross River State Governor, Mr Linus Obogo, disclosed that the Calabar Centre — designated as Centre B — will host representatives and stakeholders from Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom States.
The public hearing is scheduled to take place on Saturday, July 19, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. at the Transcorp (Metropolitan) Hotel, Calabar.
The initiative, according to the statement, is designed to promote inclusive dialogue and capture the aspirations of Nigerians from all regions.
It aims to serve as a platform for citizens to contribute meaningfully to the ongoing national efforts to refine and strengthen the country’s legal and institutional frameworks.
“Citizens, civil society groups, professional bodies, traditional rulers, and other interest blocs are invited to participate in this landmark engagement aimed at advancing a more just, equitable, and responsive Nigerian Constitution,” the statement read.
The hearing forms part of the broader review process of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), and is seen as a strategic move toward fostering national unity and addressing structural legal issues within the federation.
Politics
Tinubu’s Contribution To Buhari’s Presidency Marginal – Ex-SGF

For the first time since 2022, when then-presidential aspirant Alhaji Bola Tinubu declared he made former President Buhari Nigeria’s President in 2015, Mr Mustapha dismissed the claims, stressing that the merger only contributed about three million votes in addition to Buhari’s existing 12 million votes in the North.
He insisted that former President Buhari’s integrity, national stature, and disciplined messaging were central to the breakthrough, not the three million votes from the merging parties, which he described as insignificant.
Speaking on the role of the merging parties, particularly President Tinubu, the leader of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Mr Mustapha, who was the keynote speaker at the launch of the book ‘According to the President: Lessons from a Presidential Spokesman’s Experience’ authored by Mallam Garba Shehu, described the impact of the votes from other merging parties as very insignificant.
In attendance were former Head of State Yakubu Gowon, chair of the event; immediate past Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; SGF George Akume, who represented President Tinubu; PDP’s 2023 presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar; former Chief of Staff to Buhari Ibrahim Gambari; elder statesman Babagana Kingibe; former governors Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), Chris Ngige (Anambra), Rauf Aregbesola (Osun), Raji Babatunde Fashola (Lagos); former ministers Solomon Dalung and Sunday Dare; former Army Chief Tukur Buratai, and Bayo Onanuga, President Tinubu’s spokesman, among others.
According to Mr Mustapha, “I do not intend to stir up any controversy. The merger in 2013 was midwifed to create a Buhari presidency. Let us look at the statistics. In the 2003 election, it was the Obasanjo-Buhari presidential contest where Buhari recorded 12.7 million votes. In 2007, it came to 6.6 million, and it went back to 12.2 million in 2011.
“When we were conceptualising the merger, what would give us a headstart? Obviously, it was at the back of our consciousness that the merger with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), though it had only one state, the ACN had six states, ANPP three states, and when you sum up the total votes that we had as the presidency in 2015, the aggregate of the total votes was 15.4 million.
“So, basically, what we brought to the table after the merger outside the Buhari 12.5 million votes was three million. Before turning to that presidency, it is important to recognise the former President’s role in reshaping Nigeria’s political trajectory.
“In early 2013, as the leader of the CPC, Buhari formally requested and supported the creation of a CPC merger committee, part of a broader coalition-building process that brought together the ACN, ANPP, APGA faction, and elements of the ruling party through the breakaway ‘new PDP’ group. His endorsement and participation, along with other party leaders such as President Tinubu and Senator Ali Modu Sheriff, lent credibility and direction to the merger, helping to unify disparate party factions under the banner of the APC. That coalition-building paved the way for the first democratic defeat of an incumbent ruling party in Nigeria’s history.
“President Buhari’s integrity, national stature, and disciplined messaging were central to that breakthrough. No account of President Buhari’s tenure would be complete without acknowledging the extended periods he spent on medical leave. These moments, while politically delicate, were also telling of his leadership philosophy and personality,” he said.
In his remarks, President Tinubu promised to build on the legacies of former President Buhari, stressing that “nation-building is a relay. The efforts of one administration lay the foundation for the next.
“In this regard, I acknowledge the efforts of my predecessor, President Buhari, and assure all Nigerians that the reform-oriented path he initiated will be consolidated and strengthened under this administration. Our Renewed Hope Agenda is inspired by the desire to build a resilient, just, and inclusive Nigeria—a nation that delivers dividends of democracy to all its citizens”.
Politics
Your Lies Chasing Investors From Nigeria, Omokri Slams Obi
Speaking during an appearance on live television on Wednesday, Mr Omokri alleged that Mr Obi’s statements were misleading and damaging to the country’s economic prospects.
Mr Omokri said some investors currently operating in Nigeria were considering exiting the market due to Mr Obi’s remarks.
“That is not true. He doesn’t rile me up. I rile him up. The reason why I came here is because I’m a patriot. Peter Obi lied. You know, foreign direct investors are watching your programme, who are making investment decisions not to come to Nigeria. There are foreign investors in Nigeria that are making investment decisions to leave Nigeria because of the lie he told.
“One of the lies he told is that President Tinubu has borrowed more than the administrations of Yar’Adua, Jonathan, Buhari. That is a blatant lie”, Mr Omokri said.
To buttress his claims, Mr Omokri referenced figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO), maintaining that President Tinubu had actually reduced Nigeria’s external debt burden since assuming office.
“I have here with me data from the Debt Management Office, and Nigerians who are watching can go to DMO.com and search Debt Management Office, Nigeria State of Indebtedness 2015.
“As of 2015, Nigeria was owing a total of $63 billion. When Buhari was leaving office, Nigeria was owing $113 billion. Today, from the DMO, our debt has gone from $113 billion to $97 billion, meaning that Tinubu has reduced our debt by over $14 billion.
“We should be appreciating this man. Yet Peter Obi came here and lied to the Nigerian people. He took the debts and translated them into naira to make it look like the debts have increased”, he said.
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