Nigeria’s Economy: How Healthy?
Watchers of the Nigerian economy
were recently treated to
discordant tunes over the state of the nation’s economy by some key players in the sector. A lot of people were taken aback when the Finance Minister and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria gave conflicting reports of the state of the Nigerian economy.
The controversy over the state of affairs of the economy which was brought to public space by the pronouncements of the Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, on the one hand, and the Governor the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Lamido Sanusi Lamido on the other, has left so many persons bewildered.
This is so because while the Minister asserts that the economy was on course and stable, the CBN Governor insists that the contrary is true. That these two key officers would be saying different things on the same subject is bad, and that the administration cannot speak from one authorised source is also regrettable.
However, while the controversy lasted, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala came out to stoutly defend the economy, insisting that the country was not broke and that the nation had met all its obligations. To support her position, reference was made to the fact that out of N1.7 trillion of personnel costs and wages, N 1.3 trillion was paid, while on overheads, N 180 billion was released out of the N248 billion budget for that purpose.
To further buttress the fact that the economy was doing well despite shortfalls in revenue arising from massive crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, the Minister said that on capital budget N850 billion, 95 per cent cash-backed had been released, while 75 per cent of that amount had been utilised. She then wondered where those who claim that the economy had derailed got their facts from.
Even so, while the Finance Minister says all is well some realities on ground can only be worrisome. In addition to the fact that Finance Commissioners were walking out of Federation Accounts Allocation Committee meetings, reports of shortfalls in payment to the various tiers of government do not also add up.
While The Tide is not unaware of the on-going economic sabotage being perpetrated by oil thieves and its negative impact on the nation’s economy, our concern is rooted in the fact that the conflicting reports hitherto fed the public on the state of the economy, is capable of sending wrong signals.
We think that an issue as serious as the prevailing condition of the nation’s economy should not be an issue to guess or argue about. It should be fact based. Indeed it should be made available to the public only by the Coordinating Minister of the Economy whose responsibility it is to aggregate the performance of all the sectors.
To avoid further contradictions on the state of the economy and to build the much needed confidence, government functionaries should double check their facts and not raise doubts and speculations that are capable of injuring the polity. Because it is important for Nigerians to participate actively in the economy the truth about the state of affairs is very necessary. In fact, we ask that the true version be released now.
Black Sea Saga: Let Peace Reign
Tensions between Moscow and Washington reached an all-time high, as a Russian fighter jet forced down a United States Air Force drone over the Black Sea last Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone. The U.S. military confirmed.
The Reaper drone and two Russian Su-27 aircraft were flying over international waters over the Black Sea when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel on the unmanned drone several times. The aircraft then hit the propeller of the drone, prompting U.S. forces to bring the MQ-9 drone down. A statement from U.S. European Command said.
“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” Air Force General James Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa, said in the statement.
Recall that in June 2021, the Russia – U.S. summit witnessed the first in-person meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin to ease the mounting tensions between Washington and Moscow. Even though both presidents expressed cautious optimism about the future trajectory of U.S. – Russia affairs, what followed was anything but positive.
In 2021, tensions between Moscow and Washington reached an all-time high, when Russia repeatedly accused the United States and NATO of providing military assistance to Ukraine and nudging the country closer to NATO and the European Union. As the conflict escalated, Washington and its allies expressed concerns regarding Russia’s nuclear arsenal and political ambitions. This pushed Western officials to impose sanctions on Russia and provide support to the Ukrainian military.
In light of this continuing support, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO of waging a “proxy” war against Russia by supporting Ukraine. In its turn, Moscow continued to solidify its partnerships with key powers in the Middle East and to deepen its political and economic ties with China. This has created tensions that may lead to serious geopolitical rivalry between the great powers.
Last month, the U.S. military shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon off the Carolina coast after it traversed sensitive military sites across North America. But China insisted the flyover was an accident involving a civilian aircraft and threatened repercussions. It responded that it reserved the right to “take further actions” and criticised the U.S. for “an obvious overreaction and a serious violation of international practice.”
These developments are obvious threats to world peace. Gradually, the superpowers are getting involved in the Ukraine war with these attacks. We advise all parties to thread with caution to avert the escalation of the various provocative acts. Already, the Russian war with Ukraine is threatening the stability of the world economy and peace. With these attacks, there is a need for an urgent reassessment of global surveillance and security.
Violations of airspace by foreign unmanned reconnaissance balloons, drones, and other means are utterly unacceptable. Unfortunately, since the Chinese balloon incident, there have been numerous other occurrences involving flying objects, raising even more concern. The world powers must establish communication channels or maintain existing ones to properly handle these incidents in the interest of global peace.
In a world that is rapidly becoming a “global village”, security issues respect no national borders. The vulnerability of any one country may create a security “swamp” attracting multiple risks from outside. The insecurity of one country may build up and spill over to the region and beyond. Currently, no one can stay unscathed from external risks or achieve so-called “absolute security” on their own. Hence, nations must stick together.
Since the Russia – Ukraine war is at the heart of the conflicts, pressure should be brought to bear on both sides to end the hostilities, whose negative impact has been felt across the world. China, a major power and UN Security Council member allied with Russia need to persuade Putin to de-escalate. President Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist Party have to look beyond their ongoing rivalry with the U.S. and NATO and their preoccupation with China’s geostrategic calculations, especially unification with Taiwan and control of the South China Sea.
The war in Ukraine has to stop. This must not escalate into World War III. No one will be free from nuclear war. If hostilities intensify beyond Ukraine, its course and outcome will be unforeseeable. It is therefore essential that Putin be deprived of power. Mischief-making by Iran and North Korea is another matter; the two pariah states have been supplying Russia with weapons in furtherance of their permanent bellicosity against the U.S. and its allies. Deterring them will require stiffer sanctions against both.
Developing countries such as Nigeria’s and indeed the whole of Africa should avoid taking sides in the war. As the continent is heavily dependent on food and energy imports from Russia and Ukraine, the Norwegian-based Peace Research Institute in Oslo said war “has resulted in extreme price shocks and a disruption of the supply chains of various commodities across Africa, ranging from wheat and sunflower oil to crude oil.” The earlier this war ends, the better for the world.
The belligerents suffer the most: apart from the humanitarian displacement. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine will require $349 billion for reconstruction; the Foreign Policy Research Institute also forecasts Russia’s economy to contract by 15 per cent this year. Given the estimate and forecast, it is expedient that the senseless war ends.
As Nigerians Vote Again, ’Morrow…
Tomorrow, March 18, Nigerians of voting age would again file out to cast their votes for governors and
House of Assembly members of the various states in the country. Those who deeply understand the dynamics of political power have since projected that the gubernatorial election may be much more tougher than the presidential poll of February 25 because, as they say, every politics is local.
Expectedly, new governors will be elected for 28 of Nigeria’s 36 states and lawmakers will also be elected for 993 Houses of Assembly seats in the 36 states of the federation. Governorship elections will not hold this time in Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun, and Ondo, as polls to the offices of governors of the states are held off-cycle and not part of the general election.
Since the February 25 election was conducted, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has come under fire from election observers – both national and international, Chatham House, the United States, political parties, as well as political commentators who observed that the conduct of the ballot fell short, especially with the inability of INEC to transmit results from polling units to the results viewing (IReV) portal.
It is alleged that there was a deliberate attempt or outright refusal to upload and transmit the election results to the INEC server after declarations at the polling units as stipulated by the 2022 Electoral Act, among numerous other electoral malfeasances. But this is even as some people, particularly those whose candidates won, believe the results were a true reflection of the people’s wish, considering the victory of some new political parties in the strongholds of the ruling party across the country.
Customarily, the country will be shut down tomorrow as politicians of various parties take on one another in what promises to be “tough battles” in the respective states. Many believe that Saturday’s poll would be different because unlike in the past when the contest was usually a two-horse race, the battle would be among three or more dominant parties depending on the state.
While the stakes are high, we urge INEC to use the opportunity of the March 18 governorship elections to redeem its image, by correcting all observed loopholes in the February 25 election. This time around, we call for the sustenance and advancement of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) because its use has been seen to reduce the level of rigging by curtailing overvoting. Results should be uploaded directly from the polling units to the IRev portal for real time viewing.
Besides the glitches in the BVAS, the late arrival of voting materials to polling units was a major hiccup that characterised the last presidential election. Hence, INEC must ensure that voting materials arrive at the polling units on time and clear “all obstacles” that might hinder the free and fair conduct of the governorship election. This is one of the ways the electoral umpire can prove to the world that it has learned from its mistakes.
Of immediate concern to the commission should be how the identified challenges could be addressed ahead of the concluding phase of the general election involving the largest number of constituencies. Issues of logistics, election technology, the behaviour of some election personnel at different levels, and the attitude of some party agents and supporters must not be ignored.
Some Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) in the last presidential poll should be investigated for their alleged partisanship and connivance with politicians to sabotage and derail the due process. Similarly, INEC should investigate its staff accused of involvement in election fraud, especially electoral officers at the councils, supervisory presiding officers, and dubious ad-hoc staff, while all those involved in malpractice should be arrested, prosecuted, and punished adequately, to serve as a deterrent to others.
One of the issues that give most Nigerians real cause for concern as the nation picks its way through the delicate democratic pathway is the perceived complicity of security operatives in allegations of manipulating the elections to achieve pre-conceived results. It is a fact that the integrity of any election can be determined by the security situation at any given time as the electorate goes about choosing their leaders freely without let or hindrance.
We demand improved performances from the various security operatives participating in tomorrow’s governorship and State Assembly election. Many of them had put up shabby performances during the February 25 presidential poll. They aided and abetted some thugs to snatch ballot boxes. Though we commend some for showing professionalism, Nigerians request remarkable improvement.
Security agents who should participate in the conduct of elections must be professionals who are willing to discharge their duties without minding whose ox is gored. If Nigeria has to grow and this democracy has to survive, we must, as a nation, take a stand on what to do about the involvement of security agencies in elections. This is pertinent because their role, positive or negative, can make all the difference.
Political parties and their candidates should speak to their agents and supporters to see the elections as a contest and not war. They should refrain from acts of violence that may mar the exercise or compromise the security of our personnel, observers, the media, and service providers. The directive to State Commands by the Inspector-General of Police to handle all cases of electoral offences expeditiously is indeed heart-warming.
In Rivers State, the journey has been good so far. No one envisages any terrible or apocalyptic situation in terms of the election. However, we must all be vigilant. Every eligible person should vote. We must comply with the rules and let each one exercise their franchise. No one should exhibit lawlessness. Political bigwigs and their gladiators must call their lieutenants to order. Anyone itching to undermine the process in the state should please think again.
Reinventing The Commonwealth
Monday, March 13, 2023, was Commonwealth Day!
Held every year on the second Monday of March, the day was an opportunity to celebrate the Commonwealth and its shared values of democracy, equality, and peace for all of its people. The Commonwealth of Nations, a voluntary association of 56 countries, extends over six continents and includes the world’s biggest, smallest, richest, and poorest countries. With a total population of 2.4 billion, it gives a unified voice to about a third of the world’s population.
This year’s theme is “Forging a sustainable and peaceful common future”. The theme combines the active commitment of member states to support the promotion of peace, prosperity and sustainability, especially through climate action, to secure a better future for young people and improve the lives of all Commonwealth citizens. Although many Commonwealth nations were formerly in the British Empire, their association in the organisation is free and voluntary with each country recognised as an equal member.
To commemorate the day, Nigeria’s Federal Government had called on the Education Ministry at the subnational level to encourage their pupils and students to mark the Day for the promotion of tolerance, respect, understanding, and moderation which are necessary values for peace, prosperity, and democracy. The Minister of Education, Malam Adamu Adamu, briefed newsmen in Abuja on activities lined up for the commemoration of the 2023 Commonwealth Day.
He said Nigeria would always continue to maximise the dividends of being part of the supportive community of 56 member nations across Africa, Asia, America, the Caribbean, Europe, and the Pacific. However, we are hoping that the commemoration was not only a Federal Government affair. And that his ministry requested the management of the respective state Education Ministry nationwide to equally put in place programmes in all their educational institutions to observe the Day.
Regrettably, the Commonwealth as currently constituted is not a particularly effective organisation. Membership carries few economic benefits. The lack of consistent comparative data on trade costs, and the wide variations in the extent to which Commonwealth countries trade with fellow members, make it very difficult to prove the existence of this ‘advantage’. Furthermore, its record in enforcing adherence to human rights and democracy is far from impressive.
In 2013, the organisation adopted a charter full of laudable aspirations about justice, democracy and human rights. As such, membership signals to the broader international community that countries share those aspirations. Yet, the Commonwealth took no action when in January 2021, long-serving Ugandan president, Yoweri Museveni, clung to power after a deeply flawed electoral process. Similarly, Paul Kagame of Rwanda hosted the heads of government meeting despite repeated signs that he is intolerant of opposition.
Other repressive regimes have found the Commonwealth a useful mechanism for ‘reputation laundering’. In 2013, President Mahinda Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka hosted the Commonwealth summit. At the time, his government stood accused of presiding over war crimes in the country’s bloody civil war. In hosting the heads of government meeting, he hoped that the Commonwealth’s benign image would distract attention from the accusations.
It had been suggested that Brexit would deepen economic ties with Commonwealth members in Africa. But a recent trade summit between the United Kingdom and African countries produced very little. This, plus the pandemic, has taken the shine off some earlier predictions of a boom in UK-African trade. Meanwhile, the secretariat itself and its development arm have seen their budgets slashed in recent years. Donors have withdrawn or withheld funding in some very public displays of no-confidence in the leadership of the current secretary-general, Patricia Scotland.
However, something is endearing about the Commonwealth, whose biennial Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) took place in Kigali, Rwanda. Despite its history as the baby of a long-dead empire, and the very many challenges that it has faced over the years, it continues to thrive. In achieving this feat, a key feature has been its constant reinvention. The latest of this is the admission of Gabon and Togo, two Francophone countries with no historical ties to Britain, into the organisation in 2022.
The Commonwealth has scored tremendous successes traversing the realms of education, capacity building, development, economics, bilateral and multilateral trade, legal education, cultural and sporting links plus human rights and the rule of law. Noteworthy is how the body promptly suspended Nigeria following the summary execution of the human rights activist, the Ogoni-born, Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight of his colleagues, under the military junta of late General Sani Abacha in 1995.
Notwithstanding, the Commonwealth still has so much more to do, and its future relevance will depend on how it manages to navigate the key issues of this century. One of these is the leadership of the organisation. Since its inception in 1949, the position has been held by the head of the British Monarchy. In 2018, Prince Charles was designated as the successor to Queen Elizabeth II, who had held the position since 1952. But as it expands membership beyond the original “British Empire”, the body must decide if its historical origin and tradition outweigh the precepts of democracy, equity, and equality in choosing its leadership.
Beyond the challenges, there are opportunities. Following Brexit, Britain has been reactivating alliances and partnerships across the world under its “Global Britain” strategy. It seeks to fill the gigantic gap that Brexit has opened up, and Commonwealth members come into play here. Hence, the organisation must re-ignite its presence in global and diplomatic affairs. One way to play this role effectively is by mediating Britain’s renewed interest and engagements with the less endowed member states so that the benefits are mutual. It must not allow the Commonwealth to be used as cannon fodder to benefit only its major economies.
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