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Nigeria Inflation Report and Analysis For June 2013

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12 years ago

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Headline Inflation dropped to 8.4% year-on-year in June 2013, 60 basis points lower than 9.0% in May on ‘base effects’ from last year. The Core Inflation Index rose by 5.4% year-on-year in June, down from 6.2% in May, extending its downward trend thus far this year whilst the Composite Food Index rose 9.7% in June, up from 9.3% in May, on lower food supplies inventory, according the National Bureau of Statistics.
Inflation in the States: Headline Inflation rates lower than the National rate (8.4%) were recorded in 22 states (including the FCT) whilst Inflation rates in 15 states were higher than the national rate.
Of the 3 states housing seaports, where lower prices are expected as hinterland transport costs do not feature in prices, only Lagos State recorded single-digit inflation rate (4.27%), Rivers and Cross River States recorded Inflation rates of 20.8% and 19.2% in June respectively. Ironically, Food inflation in Benue State, the famed Food Basket of the Nation, was 35.08%.
INFLATION FIGURES; ITS IMPLICATIONS
a. Policy
With June’s Headline Inflation rate at 8.4%, inflation for the first half of the year settled in single digit, averaging 8.9%. However, risk factors such as oil revenue shortfalls as production fails to match projections, and the recent slide in external reserves make the Naira cause for serious concern and therefore pose upside risks to inflation. With the Real Effective Exchange Rate showing that the Naira is already overvalued*, adjusting the exchange rate band is a probable option for the CBN. The other viable alternative is to raise rates, as maintaining Naira at current level is seemingly costly.
b. Fixed Income Markets
Driven by aggressive withdrawal of offshore investors’ interest, average yields on actively traded FGN bonds increased in June across all maturities. It appears that the Nigerian bond market has dissociated itself from inflation dynamics lately, such that yields are responding to other demand and supply factors. The correlation between inflation and yields so far this year has been negative. This dissonancement makes it unlikely that single digit inflation expectation will readily transmit to the market.
c. Equities Markets
The Nigerian Equities market took a hit in June, with its year-to-date return at the end of the month (and consequently of the first half of the year) at 28.8%, as against 34.6% at the end of May. The real return on Equity (return after providing for inflation) as of the same date is 24.34% year-to-date, down from 30.85% at the end of May. Notwithstanding the lull in equities markets in June, its real returns dwarf real yields on currently trading FGN bonds and this should serve to stimulate greater appetite for equities, but bonds are still viable for diversification.
d. Companies
The Q2 corporate performance and earnings release season has yet to kick in, making commentary on the real values of turnover, assets and other relevant corporate ratios impossible at this point. However, Headline Inflation has remained in single-digit territory for the entire first half of the year; this suggests a slowdown in the value erosion of consumers’ resources. Also, Fast Moving Consumer Goods Companies (FMCGs), whose raw materials and inputs feature in the inflation basket and for which inflation significantly impacts cost of production, are getting a good deal on Inflation outcomes so far this year as well as the positive outlook for the second half.
INFLATION OUTLOOK
Inflation averaged single digit in H1 2013, and the outlook for H2 suggests inflation will be benign, but with possible shocks as the year winds up. We expect July 2013 inflation at 8.8%. Inflation during the second half of the year is expected to hover around high single digit. Pressure on Naira has seen the USD/NGN exchange rate remain outside the upper band (NGN160/US$) in markets outside the Official, and depending on the intervention by the CBN, this may continue till the end of the year, with implication for prices, particularly imported inflation. We also expect prices to be impacted by the expansionary fiscal stance of the government. There, however, is a one-month lag in the transmission of exchange rate, and government spending changes to prices.

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NCDMB, Dangote Refinery Unveil JTC On Deepening Local Content

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6 days ago

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July 11, 2025

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The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Company have inaugurated a Joint Technical Committee (JrefineryTC) aimed at advancing local content implementation during the operational phase of the 650,000 barrels per day  plant.
A statement from the Directorate of Corporate Communications of the Board noted that the inauguration ceremony took place at the Dangote Free Trade Zone, Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State.
The statement also said the inauguration marks a pivotal moment in fostering strategic collaboration between the both institutions, and was a significant move to reinforce local content development in the oil and gas sector.
Presided over by the Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the Group Vice President, Oil and Gas, Dangote Group, Chief Edwin Devakumar, the event featured the formal sign-off of the Committee’s Terms of Reference (ToR), a guided tour of the refinery, other critical facilities, and the official commencement of the JTC’s responsibilities.
According to the Board, the visit also featured the presentation of the certificate of the Nigerian Content Downstream Operator of the Year Award won by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Company at the inaugural ‘Champions of Nigerian Content Awards’ held recently in May.
The NCDMB’s boss made the presentation to the President of the Dangote Group, Alhalji Aliko Dangote, who expressed delight at the recognition, noting that he would display the certificate proudly at his office.
Ogbe congratulated the Dangote Group on the successful development and commissioning of the largest single train refinery in the world, as well as petrochemical and fertiliser plants, describing the projects as a historic milestone not for Nigeria alone, but for the entire continent.
He emphasized that the Dangote Refinery stands as a testament to the success of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act of 2010 and the transformative potential of Nigerian-led industrial projects.
“At an optimal daily production capacity of 650,000 barrels, this refinery will significantly enhance Nigeria’s energy security and contribute to the supply of refined petroleum products across West Africa.
“Nigerians, have to own the plant, we have to make sure that the plant works well. We have to secure it, we have to maintain it. The NCDMB would continue to collaborate with Dangote Petroleum Refinery”, Engr  Ogbe said.
Highlighting the need to ensure more value retention in the sector, as mandated by the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act (NOGICD) 2010, the Board’s helmsman demanded compliance with Sections 32 and 33 of the NOGICD Act, with particular reference to local manpower utilization and requirements for NCDMB’s approval prior to the engagement of expatriates.
“The NOGICD Act stipulates that no expatriate can be employed in any organization in the oil and gas industry without the prior approval of the NCDMB. We will work with you, We’ve to protect jobs for Nigerians. It’s critical to job creation, skills development, and national capacity building in line with the ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu”, he said.
He commended the firm for training and employing Nigerian engineers, saying the collaboration will ensure that qualified Nigerians were given opportunities across all operational roles, while also urging the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals to support the Board’s initiative which aims at developing oil and gas industrial parks across the country to foster local content and manufacturing in the sector.
He noted that the Nigerian Oil and Gas Parks Scheme (NOGaPS) seeks to create an enabling environment for Small and Medium Enterprises in the sector.
“NOGaPS was conceived by the Board to develop facilities close to oil fields where manufacturing of oil and gas components, as well as research and development, can be carried out.
“We would like Dangote to support one of our major activities, which is the oil and gas industrial parks scheme. The parks are aimed at creating an enabling environment for SMEs in the industry to do fabrications and create more jobs for Nigerians”, the NCDMB’S boss stated.
In his welcome address, the Dangote Group Vice President, Devakumar, highlighted that the refinery project and NCDMB have been working together, promoting local content development during the construction stages of the project.
“We can’t say we have achieved everything, because there is opportunity to do more. We’re grateful to the NCDMB for all their support and advice.  As entrepreneurs, we’re trying to optimise costs. It’s a Nigerian company, it’s also an entrepreneur-driven company. As a Nigerian company, the focus will be on Nigerian content. As an entrepreneur-driven company, it will be cost-focused”, he noted.
Devakumar underscored the long-standing commitment of the Dangote Group to national development and capacity building, saying that the Group’s vision is to grow Nigeria’s industrial landscape.
High points of the visit, according to the Corporate Communications Directorate of the NCDMB, was the inauguration of the Committee members.
The statement from the NCDMB further added that the committee is to ensure the implementation of local content in the refinery’s operations, while its core objectives include promoting the use of Nigerian skilled manpower, services, and locally sourced materials in compliance with Section 3 of the NOGICD Act.
The Tide learnt that the committee will also support Dangote Refinery in aligning its operational procedures with the Act’s requirements.
In his acceptance remarks, Director of Corporate Services at NCDMB and Chairman of the Committee, Mr. Abdulmalik Halilu, expressed gratitude to the leadership of both organizations, reiterating the Committee’s dedication to upholding the highest standards of local content enforcement and fostering measurable outcomes that will benefit the nation’s economy.
Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa
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Food Security: NDDC Pays Counterpart Fund  For LIFE-ND Project

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6 days ago

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July 11, 2025

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The Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Samuel Ogbuku, says the commission has paid its counterpart fund for the Livelihood Improvement Family Enterprise Project to ensure food security in the region.
The LIFE-ND project is an agriculture intervention project sponsored by the Federal Government, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, and the NDDC to boost food security in the region.
Mr. Ogbuku disclosed this while fielding questions at the commission’s 25th anniversary world press briefing  in Asaba, Delta State.
He stated that the commission has equipped and trained farmers in the region on best practices, adding that it has also established Niger Delta Chambers of Commerce with a commitment of N30 billion, but has released N5 billion to encourage commerce and entrepreneurship in the area.
According to him, agriculture is among the next phase of the commission’s programmes aimed at addressing food security in the region.
“Our target is to use agriculture to fight criminalities in the Niger Delta region”, he said.
The NDDC boss said the commission would hold a retreat to marshal plans to enhance the cultivation of rice, oil palm, cassava, and maize for industrialisation.
He also disclosed that its fund allocation from the Federal Government has improved, adding that funding from International Oil Companies has also increased, with greater compliance.
Ogbuku revealed that although its revenue has improved, the commission had thought it wise not to borrow but to deploy the surplus to execute more projects.
According to him, the commission has gone digital in its documentation and data generation to address its human capital development projects, ensuring the even deployment of resources, which allows people to take turns being trained in their chosen profession.
He stated that the NDDC was committed to addressing environmental challenges in erosion-prone areas in Edo, Delta, and other states, contingent upon the availability of funds.
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Replace Nipa Palms With Mangroove In Ogoni, Group Urges FG, HYPREP

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6 days ago

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July 11, 2025

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A concerned group of stakeholders under the auspices of Khana Coastal Communities has made a passionate appeal to the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Hydrocarbon Remediation Restoration Project (HYPREP) to include the removal of Nipa palms which has taken over the positions of mangroves in the area as part of the ongoing Ogoni Clean Up Exercise.
The group, which decried the invasive and destructive effects of Nypa fructicans, commonly known as Nipa palms, on the ecosystem of the affected communities, made their appeal in a Press Statement issued shortly after the  inspection and survey of the creeks and coastlines of  affected communities.
The communities are Kwiri, Kereken, Kaa, Gwara, Sii, Kpean, Tehnnama, Bane, Kalaoku, and Opuoku, all in Khana Local Government Area of Ogoni, Rivers State.
Signed on behalf of the affected communities by comrades Emmanuel Goteh Bie, Raymond Nwibani, and Chief Barineka Tonwe, the statement emphasized the need for urgent intervention to clear the Nypa fructicans and replace them with mangroves which provided sustainable habitat for aquatic species in the affected communities.
The group commended the Federal Ministry of Environment and HYPREP for their commitment to the Ogoni cleanup process and urged all stakeholders involved in the process not to renege on their complementary roles.
The statement read in part: “As you have seen, the Nypa fructicans has taken over our creeks, displacing native mangroves and aquatic life. The impact on our communities has been severe, with many of our people struggling to make a living due to the depletion of fish and other aquatic resources.
“We commend the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project (HYPREP) for its efforts in restoring native mangroves in Ogoni, particularly in the Bomu Community. However, we are alarmed by the unintended consequences of removing invasive Nypa fructicans, which has led to the disappearance of fish and aquatic life, threatening the livelihoods of our coastal communities.
“We believe that the removal of Nypa fructicans and replanting of native mangroves will help revive our aquatic life and sustain the livelihoods of our people.”
The group passed a vote of confidence on the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Abbas, and HYPREP Coordinator, Prof. Nenibarini Zabbey, for what it described as their unwavering efforts in ensuring the success of the Ogoni cleanup exercise.
They  called on the Federal Government to release their counterpart funding to HYPREP without delay to sustain the pace of progress recorded in the clean up process.
“The cleanup exercise is commendable, and any delay in funding could stall the progress and undermine the efforts of all stakeholders. We urge the government to prioritize the Ogoni cleanup exercise and provide the necessary support to ensure its success”, they stated.
They also used the opportunity to caution against the antics of self-inflicted activists or bodies that might attempt to hijack the cleanup agenda and create unnecessary agitation, and assured the total support of the affected  communities to HYPREP’s activities to enhance the holistic success of the Ogoni clean up exercise.
Bemene Taneh
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