Business
IMF Reviews Global Economic Growth
The International Monetary Fund recently trimmed projections for global economic growth for this year and next to take into account sharp government spending cuts in the United States and the latest struggles of recession-stricken Europe, our source reported.
While it said economic prospects had improved in recent months with a fading of financial risks, it warned Europe against relaxing efforts to combat its debt crisis given the messy bailout in Cyprus and a political stalemate in Italy.
The IMF raised its forecast for Japan, welcoming the Bank of Japan’s aggressive new monetary stimulus, which it said would boost growth and help vanquish deflation.
“While some tail risks have decreased it is not time for policymakers to relax,” IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard told a news conference to discuss the World Economic Outlook.
The report was released as global financial leaders gathered for the semiannual meetings of the IMF and World Bank later this week.
The IMF cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3 per cent, down from its January projection of 3.5 per cent. It also trimmed its 2014 forecast to 4.0 per cent from 4.1 per cent.
A more subdued outlook for the United States and for the euro zone led it to lower its growth forecast for advanced economies to 1.2 per cent for 2013 while it kept its 2014 forecast at 2.2 per cent.
While it lowered its projections for growth in emerging economies to 5.3 per cent for this year, it also said growth was already accelerating and would hit 5.7 per cent in 2014. Growth has returned to a healthy pace in China and activity is expected to recover in Brazil next year, the IMF said.
Strong domestic demand in sub-Saharan Africa should help boost growth in both resource-rich and poorer economies in that region, the Fund added. Meanwhile, growth in the Middle East and North Africa is likely to dip this year as oil production slows in some oil-exporting nations and “Arab Spring” countries struggle with political transitions.
“Notwithstanding old dangers and new turbulence, the near-term risk picture has improved as recent policy actions in Europe and the United States have addressed some of the gravest short-term risks,” the Fund said.
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