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How Obama’ll Pocket 271 Electoral Votes To Win US Poll

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President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.

While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.

While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.

Analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama’s team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he’s paid less attention to it recently.

Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.

“I’m counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!” Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: “I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio.”

Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.

About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before November. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until November 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.

Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.

Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state’s 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.

At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.

Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.

Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney’s strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.

Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama’s criticism of Romney’s opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.

The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney’s position on the aid. Obama’s internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio’s largely blue-collar electorate.

“That is a killer,’” Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. “And it’s going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election.”

Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that’s set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.

In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies’ $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.

Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.

In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president’s team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.

Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney’s standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.

Associated Press writer Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.

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We’ll Count Those Who Don’t Want 2027 Elections To Count – Obi

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The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 election, Mr Peter Obi, on Tuesday lamented that Nigerians have been turned into refugees in their own country.
Mr Obi made the remarks during the presentation of the book titled “Obi, The Political Change Agent” in Abuja.
He said that Nigerians must rise and change the current political system, adding that the current structure does not care about the people.
The former Anambra State governor highlighted the sufferings faced by Nigerians, as he listed issues troubling the country to include insecurity, poverty, theft, and lack of accountability by public officials, among others.
He urged collective efforts to dismantle the proceeds of ill-gotten wealth, insisting that “any country where those in government are richer than business people is an unproductive country. A very simple definition of production is value.”
He said the current system is totally unproductive, adding that the country has raised “Nigerian masters” who have destroyed rail lines and other infrastructures built by the colonial masters.
Mr Obi further explained that to rebuild the country, Nigerians must make sacrifices, as he disclosed that the Obidient Movement would look for genuine people who are willing to fix the country at all levels.
His remarks may not be unconnected to the activities of some federal lawmakers originally elected on the platform of the LP and have been criticised for allegedly abandoning their core opposition functions.
Meanwhile, the 2023 LP flag- bearer, while calling for transparency in the upcoming 2027 poll, cautioned against attempts to truncate the process.
He stressed, “We will make the election count. And those who don’t want it to count, we’ll count them.”
Speaking earlier in a welcome remark, National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Dr Tanko Yunusa, stated that the momentum for the 2027 election had grown from a quest to change the old order of the negative Nigerian landscape to one of the biggest social/ideological movements in Africa and the world.
Dr Yunusa disclosed that the Obedient Movement is not a political organisation or an election regularisation scheme, but simply a movement that focuses on rejigging governance by pointing its direction to the people, and espousing the dividends of democracy for the people.
“Our beloved nation, Nigeria, stands at crossroads. The old ways have failed us, and the status quo is no longer tenable, yet, amidst the challenges, we find opportunities for growth, innovation, and progress.
“The Obidient Movement, led by our champion of change, Mr Peter Obi, embodies this spirit of transformation.
“The Obidient Movement is more than just a political phenomenon; it represents a shift in the narrative, a call to action, and a demand for a better future. It is a testament to the power of collective action, the resilience of the human spirit, and the unwavering desire for a brighter tomorrow.
“As we embark on this intellectual journey, we will explore the themes of resilience and the unyielding desire for a better Nigeria.
“We shall examine the role of leadership, the power of collective action, and the imperative of embracing a new vision for our nation’s future.
“We will discuss the challenges we faced, the opportunities we have, and the strategies we must employ to build a Nigeria that is just, equitable, and prosperous for all”, Dr Yunusa said.
The National Coordinator insisted that the inevitability of a new Nigeria is not just a dream but a necessity.
“We owe it to ourselves, our children, and future generations to ensure that our nation is a place where everyone can thrive, where everyone can live with dignity, and where everyone can reach their full potential.
“As we celebrate our principal, Mr. Peter Obi, it is pertinent that we bear in mind that this auspicious gathering today is far more than just the presentation of a book”, he added.
He said that the Movement could boast of 28 states with 7 outstanding states soon to be announced, with 540 LGAs out of 774, with 234 to be completed.
In her remarks, the Acting National Chairman of the LP, Senator Nenadi Usman, highlighted that in every generation, there arises a voice that does not merely echo the frustrations of the people but dares to chart a new path for them.
“Mr. Peter Obi, whose life and political saga we unveil today, has become such a voice. This book, meticulously authored and boldly titled tells a story far beyond politics. It is the story of accountability against impunity, simplicity against flamboyance, principle against expediency, and prudence against financial recklessness”, she said.

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Defecting To APC Won’t Save You, Okocha Threatens Fubara

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The factional chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers State, Chief Tony Okocha, has warned that unless the suspended Governor of the State, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, seeks genuine reconciliation, not even his defection to the APC will save him from impeachment.
Chief Okocha, who spoke at a media briefing at the national secretariat of the APC, Abuja, on Tuesday, warned again that not even the lifting of the emergency rule will stop the impeachment of the Governor, wondering why he had been lobbying for his reinstatement.
He also took a swipe at the former Governor of the State and ex-Minister of Transportation, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, describing him as a partyless politician since he is no longer a member of the APC.
Asked if suspended GovernorFubara joining the APC will make his sins to be forgiven, Chief Okocha thundered, “Fubara’s suspension and the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State had no business whatsoever with politics. It was about his misdemeanour, and I said to you that he said that the President saved his job by declaring the state of emergency.
“Don’t forget that the Supreme Court in its judgment had said that there was no government in Rivers State. So, if there was no government in the State, something must be done, and that which happened was the declaration of the state of emergency…
“If Fubara decides to join the APC, it has nothing to do with the state of emergency in Rivers State. His sins cannot be forgiven because he came to our party. It is not true”.
He has not spoken to me. He will enter the party through the door, not the window. Not only him, there are procedures for defection to another party, and if he claims to be a politician, he will know that all politics is local; he will try and defect in his ward”.

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2027: Defectors Are Sinners Seeking Forgiveness – Dalung

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Former Minister of Youths and Sports Development, Mr Solomon Dalung, has described politicians moving from opposition parties into the ruling All Progressives Party (APC) as sinners seeking forgiveness.
Mr Dalung, who spoke in Abuja disagreed with the postulation that politicians were trooping into the APC because the ruling party has performed well, “rather they are sinners, who are seeking forgiveness for their numerous sins.”
Mr Dalung said the defectors were only fulfilling what a former Governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole, said regarding corrupt politicians, that no matter the gravity of their sins, they would be forgiven as soon as they joined the APC.
Senator Oshiomhole has severally denied this quote attributed to him but politicians have continued to use it.
He said, “These are people who have committed heinous crimes against the Nigerian people and they are jumping into the APC ship for the forgiveness of their sins. Not that they believe in Tinubu, no; they do not. They are only assembling so that their sins will be forgiven.
“So it is a conclave of political cardinals who have committed grave sins against the Nigerian people and a political party has offered them the opportunity of forgiveness on entrance”.
The former Minister also warned that if care is not taken, the defectors would create problems in the ruling party in the future.
He said, “You know there is an adage in Hausa that if animals celebrate the death of a butcher, has the knife also died? If beneficiaries of the mandate of the people are defecting, have the people also defected?
“So there is no value added to Tinubu except that he has compounded the situation in his party and there will be an implosion.”
He also dismissed concern in certain quarters that the entrance of politicians like the former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai into the Social Democratic Party (SDP) could be a potential threat to the presidential ambition of Prince Adewole Adebayo, the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, adding that “Adebayo’s political charisma, image and personality within the Nigerian political environment has presented him as an obvious force to deal with in 2027.”
He emphasized that Prince Adebayo is the only presidential candidate who has consistently maintained a media campaign against the failed and unpopular policies of the current government.
“So, Nigerians are very conversant with Adebayo’s voice, charisma and leadership qualities. So, whether you mobilize the whole politicians into the SDP, you must resolve the question of Adebayo in the SDP as a presidential candidate before any other person.
“This is because nobody has promoted the SDP in Nigeria like Adebayo. After Chief MKO Abiola, you rank Adebayo in the contemporary SDP as the highest. So, the concern as some people are expressing is normal. Human beings entertain such fears but the reality is that the name SDP since 2023 has been sustained unilaterally by the doggedness, commitment, dedication and selflessness of Prince Adebayo.
“So, he is a force to beat in whatever political arrangement that the SDP will put on ground to produce a presidential candidate. He is a patriot who did not join politics for himself; he has surrendered the rest of his life to the service of humanity and he did that at his 50th birthday.”

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