Politics
How Obama’ll Pocket 271 Electoral Votes To Win US Poll
President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
Analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama’s team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he’s paid less attention to it recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
“I’m counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!” Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: “I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio.”
Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before November. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until November 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state’s 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.
At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney’s strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama’s criticism of Romney’s opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney’s position on the aid. Obama’s internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio’s largely blue-collar electorate.
“That is a killer,’” Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. “And it’s going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election.”
Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that’s set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies’ $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president’s team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney’s standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.
Associated Press writer Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
Politics
Reps Constitution Review Committee Holds Zonal Hearing For Rivers, C’River, Akwa Ibom In Calabar
A press statement issued by the Chief Press Secretary to the Cross River State Governor, Mr Linus Obogo, disclosed that the Calabar Centre — designated as Centre B — will host representatives and stakeholders from Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom States.
The public hearing is scheduled to take place on Saturday, July 19, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. at the Transcorp (Metropolitan) Hotel, Calabar.
The initiative, according to the statement, is designed to promote inclusive dialogue and capture the aspirations of Nigerians from all regions.
It aims to serve as a platform for citizens to contribute meaningfully to the ongoing national efforts to refine and strengthen the country’s legal and institutional frameworks.
“Citizens, civil society groups, professional bodies, traditional rulers, and other interest blocs are invited to participate in this landmark engagement aimed at advancing a more just, equitable, and responsive Nigerian Constitution,” the statement read.
The hearing forms part of the broader review process of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), and is seen as a strategic move toward fostering national unity and addressing structural legal issues within the federation.
For the first time since 2022, when then-presidential aspirant Alhaji Bola Tinubu declared he made former President Buhari Nigeria’s President in 2015, Mr Mustapha dismissed the claims, stressing that the merger only contributed about three million votes in addition to Buhari’s existing 12 million votes in the North.
He insisted that former President Buhari’s integrity, national stature, and disciplined messaging were central to the breakthrough, not the three million votes from the merging parties, which he described as insignificant.
Speaking on the role of the merging parties, particularly President Tinubu, the leader of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Mr Mustapha, who was the keynote speaker at the launch of the book ‘According to the President: Lessons from a Presidential Spokesman’s Experience’ authored by Mallam Garba Shehu, described the impact of the votes from other merging parties as very insignificant.
In attendance were former Head of State Yakubu Gowon, chair of the event; immediate past Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; SGF George Akume, who represented President Tinubu; PDP’s 2023 presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar; former Chief of Staff to Buhari Ibrahim Gambari; elder statesman Babagana Kingibe; former governors Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), Chris Ngige (Anambra), Rauf Aregbesola (Osun), Raji Babatunde Fashola (Lagos); former ministers Solomon Dalung and Sunday Dare; former Army Chief Tukur Buratai, and Bayo Onanuga, President Tinubu’s spokesman, among others.
According to Mr Mustapha, “I do not intend to stir up any controversy. The merger in 2013 was midwifed to create a Buhari presidency. Let us look at the statistics. In the 2003 election, it was the Obasanjo-Buhari presidential contest where Buhari recorded 12.7 million votes. In 2007, it came to 6.6 million, and it went back to 12.2 million in 2011.
“When we were conceptualising the merger, what would give us a headstart? Obviously, it was at the back of our consciousness that the merger with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), though it had only one state, the ACN had six states, ANPP three states, and when you sum up the total votes that we had as the presidency in 2015, the aggregate of the total votes was 15.4 million.
“So, basically, what we brought to the table after the merger outside the Buhari 12.5 million votes was three million. Before turning to that presidency, it is important to recognise the former President’s role in reshaping Nigeria’s political trajectory.
“In early 2013, as the leader of the CPC, Buhari formally requested and supported the creation of a CPC merger committee, part of a broader coalition-building process that brought together the ACN, ANPP, APGA faction, and elements of the ruling party through the breakaway ‘new PDP’ group. His endorsement and participation, along with other party leaders such as President Tinubu and Senator Ali Modu Sheriff, lent credibility and direction to the merger, helping to unify disparate party factions under the banner of the APC. That coalition-building paved the way for the first democratic defeat of an incumbent ruling party in Nigeria’s history.
“President Buhari’s integrity, national stature, and disciplined messaging were central to that breakthrough. No account of President Buhari’s tenure would be complete without acknowledging the extended periods he spent on medical leave. These moments, while politically delicate, were also telling of his leadership philosophy and personality,” he said.
In his remarks, President Tinubu promised to build on the legacies of former President Buhari, stressing that “nation-building is a relay. The efforts of one administration lay the foundation for the next.
“In this regard, I acknowledge the efforts of my predecessor, President Buhari, and assure all Nigerians that the reform-oriented path he initiated will be consolidated and strengthened under this administration. Our Renewed Hope Agenda is inspired by the desire to build a resilient, just, and inclusive Nigeria—a nation that delivers dividends of democracy to all its citizens”.
Speaking during an appearance on live television on Wednesday, Mr Omokri alleged that Mr Obi’s statements were misleading and damaging to the country’s economic prospects.
Mr Omokri said some investors currently operating in Nigeria were considering exiting the market due to Mr Obi’s remarks.
“That is not true. He doesn’t rile me up. I rile him up. The reason why I came here is because I’m a patriot. Peter Obi lied. You know, foreign direct investors are watching your programme, who are making investment decisions not to come to Nigeria. There are foreign investors in Nigeria that are making investment decisions to leave Nigeria because of the lie he told.
“One of the lies he told is that President Tinubu has borrowed more than the administrations of Yar’Adua, Jonathan, Buhari. That is a blatant lie”, Mr Omokri said.
To buttress his claims, Mr Omokri referenced figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO), maintaining that President Tinubu had actually reduced Nigeria’s external debt burden since assuming office.
“I have here with me data from the Debt Management Office, and Nigerians who are watching can go to DMO.com and search Debt Management Office, Nigeria State of Indebtedness 2015.
“As of 2015, Nigeria was owing a total of $63 billion. When Buhari was leaving office, Nigeria was owing $113 billion. Today, from the DMO, our debt has gone from $113 billion to $97 billion, meaning that Tinubu has reduced our debt by over $14 billion.
“We should be appreciating this man. Yet Peter Obi came here and lied to the Nigerian people. He took the debts and translated them into naira to make it look like the debts have increased”, he said.