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Russia Grain Export Forecasts Cut As Drought Rages

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A key lobby group on Monday became the latest body to downgrade Russia‘s 2010 crop prospects as the worst drought in 130 years threatened harvests in the major wheat exporter, sending key wheat prices to 22-month highs, Reuters reported on Monday.

Monday‘s jump in the United States’ wheat prices Wc1 followed a 42 per cent leap in wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest monthly advance since 1959, as damage from drought and flooding threatened crops from the Black Sea grain breadbasket.

Benchmark November milling wheat BL2X0 on Euronext surged to a fresh contract high in opening trade.

While markets have focused intently on Russia, concerns have also started to creep on in the fate of crops in world number 4 exporter Australia, with wheat in a key state under threat from dry conditions.

The Russian Grain Union cut its 2010 grain crop forecast to between 72 million and 78 million tonnes from 81.5 million-85 million tonnes previously as a severe drought continued to advance in key producing regions.

President of the lobby group, Arkady Zlochevsky, also told reporters that the union expected Russia to export between 11 million and 19.5 million tonnes of grain, compared with a previous estimate of some 20 million tonnes in the current crop year.

“What we really want to get a grasp on is how much production has been lost, particularly in that Russian and FSU (former Soviet Union) region to figure out what will be the impact on trade and the current rally that we have seen,” Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said.

Russia has ploughed capital into its grains infrastructure as part of a longer term strategy to dominate international wheat markets and a recent Egyptian tender has confirmed that Russian milling wheat remains competitive on regional markets.

But local Russian traders were discussing the possibility of export restrictions, reasearch group, SovEcon, which last week said drought could nearly halve grain exports to 12 million tonnes in the 2010/11 crop year, said.

 Russian officials are very careful giving crop forecasts but last week the economy ministry admitted this year‘s grain crop might be less than 80 million tonnes, five million tonnes below the latest official forecast.

Russia , which harvested 97 million tonnes of grain in 2009 after 108 million tonnes in 2008, exported nearly 22 million tonnes of grain, including flour in grain equivalent last year, down from 23.5 million tonnes in the previous season.

Meanwhile wheat crops in Western Australia, the country‘s top exporting state were also under threat from dry weather but favourable conditions elsewhere could make up for any crop loss, analysts said.

Any indication that the crop in Australia , the world‘s fourth largest wheat exporting nation, is endangered could put further pressure on world market prices.

Last week, SovEcon said the drought might cut the Russian grain production even further — to less than 70 million tonnes.

Fear of Russian and other Black Sea defaults on key deals to major destinations, including the number one wheat importer Egypt due to the drought has dominated talk in markets as other origins such as the United States look to step into the breech.

Russian state grain trader, United Grain Company, on Monday denied that it had defaulted on wheat shipments to Egypt.

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Over $1.5bn Spent To Protect Nigeria’s Oil Installations -FG

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The Federal Government has said it has spent over $1.5 billion from 2020 to date to protect the nation’s oil installations and curb crude oil theft.
The Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, made this known, yesterday, at a public hearing of the House of Representatives on crude oil theft.
Akume was represented by the Permanent Secretary, General Services, Maurice Nandi.
The Federal Government was concerned about the report from the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), which pointed to over $46 billion worth of stolen crude between 2009 and 2020.
“The House had set up a special committee, headed by the Chairman of the House Committee on Petroleum Upstream, Ado Doguwa, to investigate the losses in the oil and gas sector,” Akume said.
Additionally, Speaker of the House Tajudeen Abbas, represented by Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu, said $10 billion has been lost in seven months to crude oil theft.

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FG Unveils Metering Project Teams To Combat Oil Theft

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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has inaugurated Metering Audit and Advance Cargo Declaration project teams, to promote transparency and accountability in the upstream oil and gas.
The Commission’s Chief Executive, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, who spoke at the inauguration of the project teams, on Wednesday in Abuja, said the projects were designed to combat crude oil theft and boost revenue.
It will be recalled that the Federal Executive Council (FEC) had approved a 21 million dollars contract to audit metering and measurement equipment in the 187 oil flow stations in the country and also put in place an advance cargo declaration solution.
These initiatives as earlier announced by Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, aims at enhancing monitoring and accountability in crude oil production and distribution, addressing rampant oil theft.
Komolafe, while inaugurating the project monitoring teams, announced a four-month deadline for the completion of the projects.
According to him, the initiatives zre in line with NUPRC’s mandate to ensure optimal government revenues from upstream petroleum operations, as specified in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
He said the projects would be executed by PE Energy Limited and P-Lyne Energy.
“Audit of Upstream Measurement Equipment and Facilities project aims to establish reliable baseline data for all measurement points, identify gaps in production and allocation measurement, and implement targeted interventions to enhance metering infrastructure.
“This project is crucial in addressing issues such as the presence of obsolete equipment, lack of a comprehensive database and absence of real-time production measurement across many locations.
“Advance Cargo Declaration Solution complements the metering audit by establishing a robust system for declaring and tracking crude oil transportation and exports from Nigeria,” he said.
He said the project would monitor and account for the movement of crude oil within the country, prevent disruptions, theft, and under-declaration, and ensure that only certified products were being exported.
“It will also enable real-time tracking, reconciliation, and reporting of crude oil exports to facilitate accurate revenue billing and generation.
“For a long time as a nation we have suffered from the menace of crude oil theft and there have been contentions on the accuracy in terms of our hydrocarbon accounting in Nigeria in a manner that has impacted our federal revenue unfavourably.
“So what has happened is that the commission, within its assumption of office, has been able, as a regulator, to take a very bold measure to address this issue.
“We have 31 crude oil loading terminals. So we are trying to ensure that we put in place a framework where the nation will be able to accurately determine and measure the volume of crude that is loaded from these terminals,” he said.
He tasked the teams, comprising experts from various NUPRC’s departments, to discharge their duties professionally, adding that the projects would be delivered within four months, while any request for timeline extension would not be entertained.
The NURPC boss said that each project had a dedicated team, led by Mr Enorense Amadasu, Executive Commissioner for Development and Production, NURPC, with strict timelines for completion.
While commending President Bola Tinubu for his support, Komolafe urged stakeholders to cooperate with the teams to facilitate successful implementation of the projects.
“Team for Audit of Upstream Measurement Equipment and Facilities in the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry” project comprise ; Manuel Ibituroko – Deputy Director, Facilities Engineering & Optimisation; Mohammed Sirajo – Manager, Facilities Engineering; Ike Chidi – Manager, Facilities Engineering; and Bashir Shariff – Principal Regulatory Officer.
“Team for Advance Cargo Declaration Solution” project, comprise: Bello Shehu – Assistant Director, Crude Oil & Gas terminal Operations; Abdulrahman Idris – Manager, Petroleum Accounting; Omeje Desmond – Deputy Manager, COTO PHC; Dimkpa I. H. – PRO, COTO Warri and Olatunji Babatunde – NDR”.
He said the teams would liaise with the contractors to ensure the fulfilment of the Commission’s specified obligations and monitoring the implementation of the projects to ensure alignment with the scope and specifications.
Responding, one of the two contractors, Chief Executive Officer, PE Energy Ltd, Daere Akobo, thanked the Federal Government for the confidence repose in them to take a pragmatic look at hydrocarbon accounting.
Also, the Director, P-Lyne Energy, Tomi Ogunwole assured that the company would abide by the four-month deadline set by the commission.

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FG Launches Blueprint For Africa’s Digital Trade

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The Federal Government of Nigeria has launched a comprehensive strategy to spearhead Africa’s digital trade revolution, aligning with the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) framework.
The initiative, a key component of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, is aimed at leveraging trade as a driver of economic growth and continental unity in accordance with AfCFTA’s objectives.
According to Vice President Kashim Shettima, in his X handle (formerly twitter), “Nigeria is in a unique position to spearhead the continent’s technological transformation”.
He said the strategy includes implementing AfCFTA’s Digital Trade Protocol, developing technical talent hubs, enhancing digital infrastructure investments, and promoting innovation and entrepreneurship.
Shettima stated this while delivering a keynote address during a stakeholders’ summit with the theme, “Digital Trade in Africa: The Renewed Hope Strategy”, at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.
The Vice President emphasised the need for public-private sector synergy and assured continued government investment in digital infrastructure and human capital development.
On his part, the Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijjani, highlighted the Tinubu administration’s substantial investments in all aspects of the digital trade protocol, aiming at harnessing opportunities both in Nigeria and across the continent.
He stated that innovative policies and programmes, such as the Three Million Technical Talent programme, the data protection policy, and increased investments in digital infrastructure, were equipping Nigeria’s young population for current and future opportunities.
Tijjani stressed the critical role of technology in facilitating trade across Africa, noting that the unprecedented opportunities within the single market area could be best leveraged through effective collaboration and networking enabled by digital technology.

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