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Russia Grain Export Forecasts Cut As Drought Rages

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A key lobby group on Monday became the latest body to downgrade Russia‘s 2010 crop prospects as the worst drought in 130 years threatened harvests in the major wheat exporter, sending key wheat prices to 22-month highs, Reuters reported on Monday.

Monday‘s jump in the United States’ wheat prices Wc1 followed a 42 per cent leap in wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest monthly advance since 1959, as damage from drought and flooding threatened crops from the Black Sea grain breadbasket.

Benchmark November milling wheat BL2X0 on Euronext surged to a fresh contract high in opening trade.

While markets have focused intently on Russia, concerns have also started to creep on in the fate of crops in world number 4 exporter Australia, with wheat in a key state under threat from dry conditions.

The Russian Grain Union cut its 2010 grain crop forecast to between 72 million and 78 million tonnes from 81.5 million-85 million tonnes previously as a severe drought continued to advance in key producing regions.

President of the lobby group, Arkady Zlochevsky, also told reporters that the union expected Russia to export between 11 million and 19.5 million tonnes of grain, compared with a previous estimate of some 20 million tonnes in the current crop year.

“What we really want to get a grasp on is how much production has been lost, particularly in that Russian and FSU (former Soviet Union) region to figure out what will be the impact on trade and the current rally that we have seen,” Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said.

Russia has ploughed capital into its grains infrastructure as part of a longer term strategy to dominate international wheat markets and a recent Egyptian tender has confirmed that Russian milling wheat remains competitive on regional markets.

But local Russian traders were discussing the possibility of export restrictions, reasearch group, SovEcon, which last week said drought could nearly halve grain exports to 12 million tonnes in the 2010/11 crop year, said.

 Russian officials are very careful giving crop forecasts but last week the economy ministry admitted this year‘s grain crop might be less than 80 million tonnes, five million tonnes below the latest official forecast.

Russia , which harvested 97 million tonnes of grain in 2009 after 108 million tonnes in 2008, exported nearly 22 million tonnes of grain, including flour in grain equivalent last year, down from 23.5 million tonnes in the previous season.

Meanwhile wheat crops in Western Australia, the country‘s top exporting state were also under threat from dry weather but favourable conditions elsewhere could make up for any crop loss, analysts said.

Any indication that the crop in Australia , the world‘s fourth largest wheat exporting nation, is endangered could put further pressure on world market prices.

Last week, SovEcon said the drought might cut the Russian grain production even further — to less than 70 million tonnes.

Fear of Russian and other Black Sea defaults on key deals to major destinations, including the number one wheat importer Egypt due to the drought has dominated talk in markets as other origins such as the United States look to step into the breech.

Russian state grain trader, United Grain Company, on Monday denied that it had defaulted on wheat shipments to Egypt.

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Agency Boss Seeks Improvement In Revenue Collection, Accountability 

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The Managing Director of National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Mr. Bola Oyebamiji, has called on the management and staff of the brown water regulatory agency to show renewed commitment to boosting revenue generation, enforcing accountability, and improving operational efficiency of the organisation.
Oyebamiji, who made the call recently while declaring open a retreat for NIWA’s top executives and stakeholders in the industry in Lokoja, Kogi State, stressed the need for improved performance across all NIWA offices, particularly in revenue generation.
He expressed concern over the under performance of some area offices, citing cases where annual revenue figures were as low as one or two million Naira.
“This situation is simply unacceptable. Despite management’s provision of resources, incentives, and training opportunities, the expected results were not achieved.
“Moving forward, stricter measures will be enforced to ensure accountability and drive performance”, Oyebamiji stated.
He further addressed the challenges in debt recovery, revealing that many Area Managers failed to cooperate with the debt recovery consultant appointed in 2024.
He said in some instances, debtors were either untraceable or provided inconsistent financial records, making recovery efforts difficult.
“This negative attitude towards financial accountability will no longer be tolerated”, he warned.
The retreat, which brought together key stakeholders including the honourable Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, the Chairman of the House Committee on Inland Waterways, the NIWA Board, Management staff, and security personnels, aims at providing a comprehensive review of the authority’s 2024 performance and establish strategic targets for 2025.
Oyebamiji emphasized that beyond reviewing past performance, the retreat would also focus on capacity building and teamwork to ensure that every officer is well-equipped to meet the set goals.
“This retreat is not just about evaluating past performance, it is about strategizing for the future. I encourage all participants to engage actively, exchange ideas, and work collectively towards making NIWA a leading agency in the marine and blue economy sector”, he concluded.
The two-day retreat featured panel discussions, training sessions, and interactive engagements aimed at strengthening NIWA’s operational framework and fostering a culture of efficiency, accountability, and innovation.

Nkpemenyie Mcdominic, Lagos

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NCDMB Scribe Sues For African Collaboration Strategy On Local Content …… Decries Fragmented Implementation

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The Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, has charged sub-Saharan African nations to keep pace with unfolding trends in the global oil and gas industry.
He also charged them to adopt a unified approach in strengthening local content development, advancing industrialisation and fostering sustainable continent-wide economic growth.
Ogbe stated this in a keynote address he gave at the 9th Sub-Saharan African International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC), in Lagos, last Tuesday.
According to him, nations such as Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana have made notable strides in local content development by boosting indigenous participation in the oil and gas sector.
He, however, expressed regret that fragmented implementation continues to hinder collective progress.
The NCDMB scribe called for a collaborative strategy among petroleum-producing nations in sub-Saharan Africa that would foster the sharing of best practices and enhance cross-border partnerships that could drive the competitiveness of indigenous players.
In his paper entitled “Sub-Saharan Africa Local Content Collaboration Strategy”, Engr. Ogbe identified harmonisation of local content policies, human capital development, investment in infrastructure, funding for local companies and technology transfer, as key pillars to Africa’s collaboration strategy.
He noted that “there is a need to develop a robust local content framework that positions the region for long-term economic prosperity”, and that this could be fostered “through the collaborative efforts of the African Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO), and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the African Union”.
The NCDMB boss also highlighted the importance of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) as a critical legal framework that could be leveraged to achieve collaborative local content strategy in Africa, given the free trade area it has created by integrating 1.3 billion people across 54 African countries with a combined gross domestic product of over $3 trillion.
On human capital development, which he described as “pivotal to the successful implementation of local content”,  he observed that approximately 60% of Africa’s population is currently under the age of 25, and that this teeming population provides a unique opportunity to fast-track development.

Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa

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ICTN Not Threat To Trade Efficiency – SEREC … Blames Unregulated Charges, Others

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The Sea Empowerment and Research Centre (SEREC) has in strong terms countered claims that the proposed International Cargo Tracking Note (ICTN) is detrimental to Nigeria’s economy.
Contrarily, SEREC said rather, it’s unregulated charges, informal levies, and multiple taxation that pose a far greater threat to trade efficiency and port competitiveness.
In a recent publication, SEREC expressed concern over the misrepresentation of ICTN’s role, particularly in media reports suggesting it would “kill the economy”.
The research center emphasised that ICTN, if properly implemented, would add real value to the port system by enhancing trade transparency, streamlining import statistics, and improving regulatory oversight.
“If we are sincerely concerned about charges that are ‘killing the economy,’ then our focus should be on the various hidden and unregulated costs currently imposed on shippers”, SEREC’s Head of Research, Eugene Nweke, siad.
SEREC provided a detailed breakdown of excessive charges affecting shippers.
These charges, according to the Centre, significantly contribute to inefficiencies in Nigeria’s port system, increasing the cost of trade and making logistics unpredictable.
One of the major concerns raised in the publication is the “Seven per cent Port Development Levy”, which continues to be collected despite the port concession regime.
In addition, “various unregulated terminal handling charges, positioning fees, scanning fees, and labour costs” have further added to the financial strain on shippers.
The “ETO Trucking Fee”, set at N100,000 per truck for entry and exit at terminals, is another significant burden, the Centre noted. Meanwhile, “arbitrary trucking costs” which are unilaterally determined by service providers create further unpredictability in the logistics chain.
SEREC also highlighted the issue of “informal payments and settlements”, which it said involved “unreceipted fees” at different cargo clearance points.
These hidden costs, coupled with “security agency tolls” allegedly imposed by government security operatives along cargo routes make cargo movement more expensive. Additionally, the Centre criticised the “state-favourably on the global stage.”

Given these arguments, SEREC is calling for the “immediate implementation of ICTN” to restore order and efficiency in Nigeria’s port system.

The research Centre argues that ICTN should not be grouped with arbitrary charges but should be seen as a “structured, value-adding fee with a clear function”.

Nweke assured that “by the time the implementation fully runs through a period, the effects and contributions to the port system and its impact is felt by all, then, those who are initially in doubt of the effectiveness of the ICTN would have no option but to embrace and appreciate the enabling device (ICTN)”.

 

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