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FG ’s Budget Faces Crisis As OPEC Paints Gloomy Outlook For 2021

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Despite the stability of oil prices at $50 per barrel in recent times, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has painted a mixed oil market outlook for 2021.
In his opening remarks at the 47th Meeting of the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), yesterday, via videoconference, OPEC Secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo, said, “Amid the hopeful signs, the outlook for the first half of 2021 is very mixed and there are still many downside risks to juggle. We are only beginning to emerge from a year of deep investment cuts, huge job losses and the worst crude oil demand destruction on record.
“Curbs on social and economic activity remain in place in a number of countries, and there is concern about the emergence of a pernicious new strain of the virus. Last night I saw on the news there are now about 30 countries that have reported this new strain.”
According to him, “Though the ongoing restrictions are necessary to combat the pandemic, they have chipped away at business sentiment and consumer confidence in some of the world’s biggest economies. It is too early to tell how quickly key sectors will bounce back to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories even if the vaccines defeat this terrible virus.
“Mr Chairman, sectorally, travel, tourism, leisure and hospitality continue to be affected. Our projections show that there will be rebound in the second half of 2021 with upside potential.
“However, it could be another a couple of years before these sectors bounce back to pre-Covid-19 levels, with corresponding lagging impact on oil demand.
“The Christmas Eve trade agreement between the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) is a promising development for the recovery process after months of very difficult and rancorous negotiations. Stimulus packages have clearly helped prevent deeper economic contractions and continue to lend crucial recovery support.
“The EU and US have now approved measures which, taken together, provide nearly $2trillion in additional support for those economies. It is worth noting that fiscal and monetary stimulus packages in the G20, including bank guarantees, have reached $25trillion, corresponding to more than 20 per cent of the global economy.”
Barkindo said, “Tomorrow, we begin a new chapter in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) with the start of monthly OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings to evaluate the market. It was only one year ago that the DoC participating countries began to introduce adjustments of a then-astonishing 1.7million b/d, with additional voluntary contributions pushing that number to 2.1 million b/d.
“These adjustments, as agreed at the 7th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in December 2019, were a pre-emptory response to support continued stability in 2020, actions that were welcomed widely as the market rang in a new and promising year. Looking back at the projections provided by the JTC, I don’t think anyone could have done a better job.
“In retrospect, those efforts taken at the end of 2019 pale in comparison to the scope and scale of the actions we have carried out since a series of ground-breaking Ministerial Meetings in April, June, and culminating in the visionary decisions taken at the last meeting one month ago today. The outcome of the December 3, Ministerial Meeting paved the way for a gradual return of 2million b/d to the market over the coming months, while the participating countries stand ready to adjust these levels depending on market conditions and developments.”
Barkindo said, “Collectively over the last nine months, we have delivered an unprecedented response to an unparalleled market shock and continue to lead the industry on the road to recovery. We are witnessing the very early stages of Covid-19 vaccinations and the progress so far has injected optimism into the economy. These promising developments, in parallel with the Declaration of Cooperation’s market leadership during the crisis, have contributed to a healthier oil market outlook for 2021.
“Following the last Ministerial Meetings, the price of Brent crude inched above $50 per barrel for the first time since early March, while Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate experienced their longest stretch of advances since June. After the unprecedented shock experienced last year, the economic forecast calls for brighter days ahead.
“Our analysts expect the global economy to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2021 compared to a sharp contraction of around 4.2 per cent last year. The Covid-19 vaccinations provide upside potential for the economic outlook and may help usher in a strong rebound in the second half of 2021.
“Furthermore, we continue to see upward momentum in Asia, especially China, which remains on course for positive growth in 2020 – a singular achievement among the world’s biggest economies. China’s broad-based recovery forecast stands at about 6.9 per cent for 2021 and provides a beacon of hope for other economies, in the region and beyond. Our analysts in the Secretariat anticipate that crude oil demand will shift from reverse to forward gear and rise to 95.9million b/d this year, a gain of 5.9million b/d from 2020. The non-OECD will be in the driver’s seat with growth of around 3.3million b/d”, Barkindo added.

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NAFDAC Alerts Nigerians To EU Ban On Dex Soap

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The National Agency for Food and Drugs Administration and Control, NAFDAC, has alerted Nigerians on the ban on Dex Luxury Bar Soap (No 6 Mystic Flower), by the European Union (EU).
The notification is contained in a public alert with No. 012/2024, signed by NAFDAC Director-General, Prof Mojisola Adeyeye, and issued to newsmen in Abuja yesterday.
“The product does not comply with the cosmetic products regulation; it also contains Butyphenyl Methylpropional (BMHCA), which is prohibited in cosmetic products due to its risk of harming the reproductive system.
“It also causes harm to the health of unborn children and may cause skin sensitisation.
“It is as a result of the defective nature of the product that the EU banned it.
“The products is not in NAFDAC database; importers, distributors, retailers and consumers are to exercise caution and vigilance within the supply chain,” she said.
NAFDAC boss urged marketers and consumers to avoid the importation, distribution, sale and use of the product, stressing that product’s authenticity and physical condition must be carefully checked.
She enjoined members of the public in possession of the product to discontinue sale or use, and submit stock to the nearest NAFDAC office.

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Communities, Volunteers Ready To Face Upcoming Floods – Red Cross

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The Country Manager of the British Red Cross in Nigeria, Karsten Voigt, says communities and volunteers are ready to face the challenges expected with the upcoming floods.
Voigt said this at the sidelines of the 56th Annual General Meeting of the Nigerian Red Cross Society (NRCS), Lagos Branch.
The Tide’s source recalls that the British Red Cross donated resilience items to some communities in December 2023, to help mitigate the effects of flooding.
The items included cash, rain boots, rain coats, mosquito nets, handheld flashlights, solar powered lights with radio, USB chargers and a bridge to link the communities.
The communities that benefited included Agboyi 1, Agboyi 2, Agboyi 3 and Odo Ogun in Kosofe Local Government Area of the state.
Voigt said the Red Cross had measured the impact of the project in the communities and noticed that a lot of progress had been made.
According to him, apart from the cash and items given to the communities, simulation exercises have also been carried out to prepare the volunteers ahead of the floods.
“We have seen that people used the cash to address immediate needs they have after floods.
“Many households have used part of the cash to build up businesses.
“The solutions we have given to them are not only addressing their immediate needs after the disaster but actually building family income for their future,” he said.

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Nimet Forecasts Three-Day Sunshine, Thunderstorms

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The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted sunshine and thunderstorm from Monday to Wednesday across the country.
NiMet’s weather outlook released yesterday in Abuja, forecasts sunny skies on Monday with a few patches of cloud over the northern cities and prospects of thunderstorms over parts of Taraba later in the day.
According to the forecast, sunny skies with patches of clouds are expected over the North Central region with prospects of morning thunderstorm over parts of the Federal Capital Territory, Nasarawa, Kogi and Kwara States.
“Later in the day, isolated thunderstorms are anticipated over parts of the Federal Capital Territory, Kogi and Benue States.
“The southern region is expected to be cloudy with spells of sunshine with prospects of morning thunderstorms over parts of Oyo, Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo and Lagos States.
“ In the afternoon/evening periods, isolated thunderstorms are expected over parts of Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Ekiti, Ogun, Imo, Oyo, Ondo, Edo, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Rivers, Lagos and Bayelsa States,” it said.
NiMet also anticipated sunny skies on Tuesday with few patches of cloud over the northern states with prospects of isolated thunderstorms envisaged over parts of Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba and Kaduna States during the afternoon and evening hours.
It envisaged the North Central region to be sunny with patches of cloud during the morning hours.
The agency also envisaged isolated thunderstorms over parts of the Federal Capital Territory, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, Benue, Kwara and Niger States, later in the day.
“Cloudy atmosphere with intervals of sunshine is expected over the inland and coastal areas of the South, with chances of morning thunderstorm over parts of Cross River, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Rivers States.
“In the afternoon/evening periods, isolated thunderstorms are anticipated over parts of Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Oyo, Edo, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Rivers and Bayelsa States ,” it said.
It predicted a sunny atmosphere on Wednesday, with patches of cloud over the northern region, during the forecast period.
“Sunny skies with patches of clouds are expected over the North Central region with chances of isolated thunderstorms over parts of Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, the Federal Capital Territory and Benue States, during the afternoon/evening periods.
“ Cloudy atmosphere with intervals of sunshine is expected over the inland and coastal areas of the South with prospects of thunderstorms over parts of Anambra, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi and Abia.”
Other states to experience cloudy atmosphere, are “Edo, Ondo, Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Cross River, Lagos, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Delta and Bayelsa States, later in the day.”
NiMet urged the public to take adequate precaution as strong winds might precede rains in areas where thunderstorms were likely to occur.
The agency also urged airline operators to get updated weather reports and forecasts from its office for effective planning in their operations.

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