Fifty years after the Nigerian Civil War, which claimed well over 2.5 million lives, destroyed hundreds of thousands of properties, and rendered millions permanently maimed and traumatised in just about three years, principal actors, survivors, political leaders, historians, activists and other players in the Nigerian Project, not too long ago, converged to provoke a sombre reflection, and warned against utterances and actions capable of triggering the disintegration of the country while advising that the catastrophe of the war years should serve as pivotal driving force for the promotion of peace, national reconciliation, cohesion and unity.
The warning was accentuated by diverse leaders across the nation from different professions, religious and ethnic orientations at the ‘Never Again Conference 2020’ organised by the Igbo think-tank, Nzuko Umunna and Ndigbo Lagos, in collaboration with civil society organisations. At the core of the conference was an x-ray of the major causes and consequences of the ill-fated Civil War and a critical appraisal of the present state of the nation which shows a seemingly dangerous replay of events in virtually all spheres of the Nigerian state.
Consequently, speaker after speaker noted that the complex dynamics, including heavily diverse cultures, tradition, religious affiliations and social backgrounds which have made it difficult for Nigerians to forge a strong, virile, progressive, peaceful and united nation, should be quickly harnessed, coalesced and woven together in harmony to shut out any tendency to plunge the country into another Civil War. They regretted that the failure of Nigeria to move forward in peace and sustainable progress was because of the brazen disrespect of the majority and crass insistence of a minority group to foist its interests in the workings of the executive, legislative, judicial and even military and security superstructures without regard to the consequential violent implosion which such could unleash on the nation.
The leaders pointed at the various unfolding events of the last few years, including rising cases of abuse of power, outright impunity, looting of national treasury and assets, disregard for the rule of law and constitutionality, nepotism, tribalism, lack of compliance with the federal character principle, and targeted systemic violent attacks, killings and acts of war against people of other ethnic groups, and warned that the situation was capable of forcing the majority to fight back, thereby pushing the country into the brink of another Civil War.
The Tide completely agrees that the songs of war, inciting, toxic and inflammatory attacks on people of other ethnic groups are heightening tension. We worry that violent attacks, killings, and kidnapping of people of certain tribes, religion and/or perceived to be of a given social status are taking a dangerous crescendo too. Even the deliberate government strategy to recruit and appoint people from a section of the country into virtually all critical sectors, agencies or departments at the federal level calls for concern.
We, therefore, caution harbingers of discord and war to remember the atrocities of the Civil War and realise that so many things have changed and that the result of another potential war may never be the same. We say so because history tells us that no nation has ever survived two civil wars intact.
While we insist that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nigeria is non-negotiable, we appeal to all players to respect the expressed interests of others, and allow the divergent views to co-exist for the peace and unity of the nation. Indeed, the best way to bring this to life is to key into the urgency to restructure the country with the objective of giving the people a true and acceptable federal structure under which each federating unit would deploy its resources to conquer poverty amongst the people while the rich and the poor cohabit in harmony.
We believe that only a patriotic commitment to peaceful and united Nigeria would lead the present and future generations to a country with tolerant and inclusive political, economic, social and security systems for all. To achieve these, our leaders must entrench the core values of democratic principles and eschew ethnic, religious differences so that the country’s driving force can revert to the ideal: merit, hardwork, creativity and innovation.
For us, there is no better time to raise the alarm than now because the fabric of the Nigerian state has been threatened and weakened by years of degenerate government tactics aimed at marginalising and alienating the majority in governance, repression and deployment of brute force to crush opposition, glorification of injustice and inequality, and other antics that enhance division and incite people to hate.
This is why we urge leaders in various sectors to heed the lesson of the Civil War and the clarion call to do everything within their powers to promote peaceful coexistence and national unity. This is a call to duty and a task for all Nigerians.

Last Saturday’s attack on the entourage of Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State by persons suspected to be members of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) in the State, has again brought to the fore the possibility or otherwise of conducting a peaceful and violence-free governorship election in the State come September 19, 2020.
Members of Governor Obaseki’s entourage, including bigwigs of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) were reportedly attacked by some faceless hoodlums near the palace of no mean a personality than the revered Oba of Benin, HRM Omo N’ Oba N’ Edo Uku Akpolopolo, Oba Ewuare II in Benin City last Saturday.
It would be recalled that the Chairman of the PDP National Campaign Council for Edo State Governorship Election and Governor of Rivers State, Chief Nyesom Wike, had last Saturday led other party bigwigs to Benin City and successfully flagged off the electioneering campaign of the party in the state, thus, setting the stage for a fierce political contest in the state.
The PDP campaign train had, as tradition demands, paid a courtesy visit to the Oba of Benin before proceeding to the Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium for the flag-off of the party’s campaign rally that day.
But according to media reports, “whilst at the palace, some youths gathered at the palace entrance gate, chanting pro and anti-PDP songs. Those wearing PDP-sponsored caps and emblems were attacked”.
It was further gathered that gunshots were fired and cars smashed during the mayhem, while scores of persons sustained varying degrees of injuries.
It, however, did not take time before the PDP in the State rose stoutly to condemn the unfortunate incident and called on security agents to ensure that those connected with the attack are arrested and prosecuted.
The Chairman of the PDP Campaign Council in the State, Chief Dan Orbih, who addressed journalists in the wake of the attack in Benin City said, “the attack was a plot to eliminate Governor Obaseki, national officials of PDP and some PDP governors”.
Describing the attack as a political mutiny, Orbih indicated that it was aimed at driving fear into Governor Obaseki and the people, so that they would not come out on election day. He accused the opposition APC leadership of sponsoring and masterminding the mayhem.
However, it is heart-warming to note that the Oba of Benin himself has stressed the need for a peaceful governorship election in the State.
Oba Ewuare II had during the visit of Governor Obaseki and other PDP top guns to his palace assured that plans were underway to summon the Edo State Council of Traditional Rulers and Chiefs to pray for a peaceful election in the state.
The Oba said God and his ancestors had been answering his prayers whenever he prayed, adding that the forthcoming governorship election would not be an exception.
Indeed, The Tide joins well-meaning Nigerians to condemn the attack on Governor Obaseki and other PDP leaders, as it clearly shows what to expect during the governorship election in the state as political tension continues to build up in the state as the election fast approaches.
We are not unwindful of the political dark clouds hovering over Edo State, in recent times, with the countdown to the September 19, 2020 governorship election in the State, and to all intents and purposes, the signs are potently ominous and grave, even as political activities gather momentum with each passing day in the state.
Again, political observers in the country cannot forget in a hurry the intrigues and subterfuge that played out in the state within the APC in particular, where Governor Obaseki once held forte as the party’ leader before dumping it for the PDP. The dust raised by his exiting the party is yet to settle. The bad blood and ill-feelings are still very palpable across the various political divides in the state.
More worrisome is the fact that the political gladiators in the state are not leaving anything to chance to undo one another. They are still talking tough; threatening fire and brimstone. These ominous signs, to say the least, portend grave danger to the country’s nascent democracy, and clearly put Edo State on the political spotlight.
There is no gainsaying the fact that all over the world, people of goodwill cherish peace. Without peace, there can never be development. We, therefore, subscribe to peaceful and violence-free elections not only in Edo State but also in all other states in the country for that matter. We say so because it is only through peaceful, transparent and credible elections that the people can choose true leaders capable of meeting their yearnings and aspirations. Afterall, what is democracy if it is not anchored on the fundamental principles of development and good governance.
Thus, this time around, Edo people cannot afford to fritter away another opportunity of the state to be counted among the most formidable states in the comity of states.
To achieve this, the political gladiators in the state must first and foremost sink their political differences and subsume their selfish political interests into the collective interest of state. They must not set the state on fire.
In this way, the electorate would have a clearer picture of the candidates that would best meet their yearnings and aspirations, and better develop the state in the next four years.
We hold fast to the political dictum that the ambition of no politician is worth the blood of any Nigerian citizen. After all, politics is a game. It is not a do or die affair. There must be no bloodshed. Thus, with the countdown to the September 19, 2020 governorship election, all Edo people, irrespective of party affiliation should give peace a chance.
We are indeed happy that the Oba of Benin has already set the ball rolling by promising to mobilise traditional rulers to pray for a peaceful governorship election in the state. All Edo people must toe this path.
We also believe that security agencies in the state have a crucial role to play to ensure that the forthcoming election is not only peaceful but also credible, free and fair. This, they can do by ensuring that no candidate is unduly harassed, intimidated or even favoured.
This is why we lend our voice to the call by the PDP to security agents to ensure that those behind the attack on Governor Obaseki’s entourage are arrested and prosecuted.
Everything said and done, there is no alternative to peace.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected that Nigeria’s economy would soon witness its worst recession in 30 years.

This projection was part of the Fund’s April 2020 World Economic Outlook report released penultimate Tuesday in Washington DC, United States at the commencement of its 2020 Spring meeting held through video conferencing.

The IMF further said that Nigeria’s economy will recede by 3.4 per cent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has disrupted the global supply chain of most commodities, including the country’s main export commodity, crude oil.

It noted that this would be the worst economic setback in 30 years for Africa’s largest economy, after a negative economic growth of 1.51 per cent in 2016.

According to the IMF Chief Economist and Research Director, Gita Gopinath, the impending global recession would be the worst since the Great Depression between 1929 and 1932 when the advanced economies shrank by 16 per cent.

While Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to shrink by 3.4 per cent and land her in another recession, the Fund’s projected outlook for Africa’s most advanced economy (South Africa) is even worse at 5.8 per cent, from a 2019 growth of 0.2 per cent.

Nigeria was hoping to improve on her 2.2 per cent 2019 growth rate before the advent of the Coronavirus pandemic which saw the global oil price of petroleum tumbling. In fact, while oil prices were taking a bashing (no thanks to the muscle flexing between Russia and Saudi Arabia), the COVID-19 pandemic simply aggravated the situation. Currently, North Sea Brent crude is reported to be trading at USD 31.48 per barrel while Western Texas Intermediate sells for around USD17.75 per barrel. OPEC Basket is USD12.22.

To say that Nigerians did not see this coming will be the height of insincerity as there had been suggestions to nearly every administration to diversify the nation’s economy as to move the country away from its over dependence on petroleum as main revenue earner.

The Tide is deeply troubled that this gloomy projection is coming at a time when the average Nigerian is wishing that the trauma of the 2016 recession would soon be over and for things to return to normal.

The effects of job losses, high cost of living, border closure, herder–farmer clashes and the rising crime rate had led to a worsening of the nation’s misery.

We are also not unaware of the latest warning by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in which Nigeria was listed as one of the 10 countries that would soon experience severe famine of biblical proportion.

With these projections indicating impending national calamities, we fear that the government and, indeed, Nigerians hardly have the time to make any meaningful preparations.

Already, the USD 57 per barrel crude oil benchmark in the 2020 budget has been reviewed downward, even as today’s oil price still makes nonsense of that review. Also, capital expenditure has been severely downsized. This is even as the nation’s USD 1.5 billion debt servicing pledges have become impracticable and need to be renegotiated.

Inflation rate has already entered double-digit while the steady depletion of the external reserve piles pressure on the naira’s worth. What’s more, with COVID-19 came the adoption of national and interstate border closures as part of containment measures. The intra-city lockdowns that also followed led to a halt in economic activities with the attendant negative effects on Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The nation may therefore begin to reconsider redenominating her currency as was successfully done by Ghana some years ago, after decades of economic doldrums. Debt forgiveness is already out of any consideration for Nigeria because she is no longer in the world’s list of Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs), especially since after rebasing her economy in 2013 and emerging as the largest economy in Africa. She is now considered a middle income nation.

Efforts should be geared to better manage the nation’s available income. This period should be likened to a war situation when emphasis should be reduced in infrastructural development, rather efforts should focus on amassing weapons to attack the common enemy which in this case comprises Coronavirus, corruption, misery, hunger, climate change, among others.

There is no doubt that COVID-19 lockdowns have eroded whatever savings that were available for investment to the Micro, Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (MSMEs) in the country. In fact, some have had to convert their present stocks of goods for their daily consumption and survival. And this renders a serious blow to the nation’s GDP.

We commend the IMF for, as usual, alerting most vulnerable countries like Nigeria on the difficult times ahead. We also believe that, as it had always done in the past, the Fund will follow this up with a list of some necessary steps that need be taken by the government in order to curtail the extent of these difficulties.

And to the government, the call for a resort to mechanized agriculture and massive food storage has never been more expedient for a country of about 200 million people than now.