Editorial
That UK Firm’s $9.6 bn Debt Claim
Penultimate Tuesday, three ministers in charge of Justice, Finance and Information, Abubakar Malami, Zainab Ahmed, and Lai Mohammed as well as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele, addressed a joint news conference where they confirmed that a probe panel comprising the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), National Intelligence Agency (NIA), and Inspector General of Police, has been set up to review the entire process leading to the award and failure of a 20-year gas supply deal allegedly sealed with an Irish firm – Process & Industrial Development Limited (P&ID) – which has resulted in a $9.6 billion (about N3.5 trillion) fine imposed on August 16, 2019 by a British Commercial Court presided over by Justice Christopher John Butcher, for allegedly defaulting to respect compensation ruling against the previous government in 2012.
The ministers said that government was seriously concerned about the whole circumstances that “smack of an attempt by some local and international collaborators to rip off Nigeria”, for a project that was never executed. In fact, both minister of finance and CBN governor said that there were no records in their books to show that P&ID, as a foreign investor, brought in any tools, equipment or funds for the purposes of establishing a gas processing plant in Cross River State between January, 2010 when the GSPA was executed and 2012, when the firm petitioned the government at the arbitration tribunals in the United States and United Kingdom seeking compensation for defaulting in keeping its own part of the bargain.
We may recall that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the government and P&ID on July 22, 2009 while the Gas Supply Processing Agreement (GSPA) was executed by P&ID founder, Michael Quinn, and the then Petroleum Resources Minister, Dr Rilwanu Lukman, on January 11, 2010. But with the twist in the Umaru Yar’Adua administration leading to his death, and the emergence of Dr Goodluck Jonathan as acting president, the new government of necessity opted in June, 2010, to jettison P&ID and run the Adanga gas pipeline deal with Adax Petroleum, thereby triggering the logjam.
The Tide recalls that the firm had through its representatives, Andrew Stafford, Q.C. of Kobre & Kim claimed that it invested $40 million in the deal, but approached the arbitration tribunal in 2012 to seek compensation for government-induced failure of the contract. In the ruling, Justice Butcher granted P&ID’s right to seize 20 per cent assets of Nigeria’s foreign reserves worth £7.4 billion or $9.6 billion, which is 2.5 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP as punishment for failing to respect the decision of the tribunal on the botched deal.
Only last Thursday, the erstwhile justice minister under President Umaru Yar’Adua, Michael Aandoakaa, denied knowledge of such deal, and claimed that Rilwanu Lukman never submitted any memo on the alleged GSPA to the Federal Executive Council (FEC) for approval. The next day, P&ID published a veiled chronology of interactions between it and the Federal Government from May 3, 2015 through August, 2019, but failed to mention who played roles in its failure, why government dumped it for Adax Petroleum and why the government refused to pay the award since 2012.
It is curious that P&ID offered the Goodluck Jonathan administration to walk away with $850 million on May 3, 2015, and sustained that offer till November, 2015, an amount less than 10 per cent of the actual arbitration award of $9.46 billion.
We are disappointed that the government ignored provisions in its Production Sharing Contract (PSC) agreements with Adax Petroleum and ExxonMobil for the unitisation and monetisation of gas resources in Oil Mining Leases 123 and 67, and went ahead to enter into fresh GSPA with P&ID with no relationship with the IOCs, including its associates – Industrial Consultants International Limited (ICIL) and BVI Company.
We are further worried at the way P&ID took advantage of delay in the formation of a cabinet by President Muhammadu Buhari to obtain consequential awards in its favour, especially the Liability Award on July 17, 2015, and the debt recovery enforcement award on August 16, 2019. We are also concerned at the May 27, 2016 Arbitration Tribunal decision to apply the Procedural Order No 12, which moved jurisdiction of arbitration to London, and undercut the Federal High Court powers to set aside the awards. And we are jolted by the tribunal’s refusal to accept Curtis Mallet, Nigeria’s representative’s requests for time to enable the Federal Government sort things out, and attempts to blame the government and particularly Malami for not playing along.
This, indeed, is the single highest financial liability in Nigeria’s history, and poses devastating consequences for the economy and Nigerians today and in the future, which must not be allowed to stand. But come to think of it: how on earth could this have happened, if not for the connivance of some dubious and unpatriotic Nigerians, who are desperately fighting back attempts to end endemic corruption in the system?
We join the Federal Government and all well-meaning Nigerians to reject this attempt by P&ID and its co-conspirators to plunge Nigeria into endless slavery and poverty, by stopping Andrew Stafford from coming through with his threats ‘to satisfy the terms of the award as soon as possible’. We align with the government’s strategy to thoroughly investigate this investment fiasco and bring all those culpable to justice as quickly as possible. We also charge the government to deploy every diplomatic means available to ensure that P&ID and its proxies do not in any way interfere or seize any assets belonging to Nigeria anywhere in the world, as a ploy to enforce this bogus judgment debt.
This scandalous judgment debt points to a sad culture of negligence and lack of due process which manifested at every stage of the contract and arbitration. We, therefore, insist that the probe should begin from the Ministry of Justice and interrogate Chief Bayo Ojo (SAN) while retired and serving officials of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources should explain to Nigerians why they should vet such opaque contract agreement without aligning all grey but complex areas with extant industry laws in the country.
This tragedy effectively amplifies the conventional lackluster attitude of governments in Nigeria towards debt management, either from domestic creditors or offshore sources. Now that the $9.6 billion scandal has been blown open, with more threats emerging from other failed deals, it is imperative for government to file a stay-of-execution appeal, and engage in efforts to defend the country’s hard-earned $9.6 billion foreign reserve. We also expect an immediate audit of such cases pending at international arbitration courts to ensure they are handled with seriousness and settled in such a manner that they do not threaten Nigeria’s foreign reserves. This is our stand!
Editorial
Benue Killings: Beyond Tinubu’s Visit

The recent massacre in Yelewata, Benue State, ranks among Nigeria’s deadliest attacks of
2025. While official figures put the death toll at 59, media reports and Amnesty International estimate between 100 and 200 fatalities. This atrocity extends a decade-long pattern of violence in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, where Beacon Security data records 1,043 deaths in Benue alone between May 2023 and May 2025.
President Tinubu’s visit on 18 June—four days after the 14 June attack—has drawn sharp criticism for its lateness. This delay echoes a history of inadequate responses, with Human Rights Watch documenting similar inaction in Plateau and Kaduna states since 2013, fuelling a culture of impunity. The attack lasted over two hours without meaningful security intervention, despite claims of swift action.
The violence bore hallmarks of genocide, with survivors recounting systematic house burnings and executions. More than 2.2 million people have been displaced in the region since 2019 due to comparable attacks. Data show Benue’s agricultural output falls by 0.21 per cent in crops and 0.31 per cent in livestock for every 1 per cent rise in violence.
Security forces continue to underperform. No arrests were made following the Easter attacks in April (56 killed) or May’s Gwer West massacre (42 killed). During his visit, Tinubu questioned publicly why no suspects had been detained four days after Yelewata, highlighting entrenched accountability failures.
The roots of the conflict are complex, with climate change pushing northern herders south and 77 per cent of Benue’s population reliant on agriculture. A Tiv community leader described the violence as “calculated land-grabbing” rather than mere clashes, with over 500 deaths recorded since 2019.
Government interventions have largely fallen short. The 2018 federal task force and 2025 Forest Guards initiative failed to curb violence. Tinubu’s newly announced committee of ex-governors and traditional rulers has been met with scepticism given the litany of past unkept promises.
The economic fallout is severe. Benue’s status as Nigeria’s “food basket” is crumbling as farms are destroyed and farmers displaced. This worsens the nation’s food crisis, with hunger surges in 2023-2024 directly linked to farming disruptions caused by insecurity.
Citizens demanding justice have been met with force; protesters faced police tear gas, and the State Assembly conceded total failure in safeguarding lives, admitting that the governor, deputy, and 32 lawmakers had all neglected their constitutional responsibilities.
The massacre has drawn international condemnation. Pope Leo XIV decried the “terrible massacre,” while the UN called for an investigation. The hashtag “200 Nigerians” trended worldwide on X, with many contrasting Nigeria’s slow response to India’s swift action following a plane crash with similar fatalities.
Nigeria’s centralised security system is clearly overwhelmed. A single police force is tasked with covering 36 states and 774 local government areas for a population exceeding 200 million. Between 2021 and 2023 alone, 29,828 killings and 15,404 kidnappings were recorded nationally. Proposals for state police, floated since January 2025, remain stalled.
Other populous nations offer alternative models. Canada’s provincial police, India’s state forces, and Indonesia’s municipal units demonstrate the effectiveness of decentralised policing. Nigeria’s centralised structure creates intelligence and response gaps, worsened by the distance—both physical and bureaucratic—from Abuja to affected communities.
The immediate aftermath is dire: 21 IDP camps in Benue are overwhelmed, and a humanitarian crisis is deepening. The State Assembly declared three days of mourning (18-20 June), but survivors lack sufficient medical aid. Tragically, many of those killed were already displaced by earlier violence.
A lasting solution requires a multi-pronged approach, including targeted security deployment, regulated grazing land, and full enforcement of Benue’s 2017 Anti-Open Grazing Law. The National Economic Council’s failure to prioritise state police in May 2025 represents a missed chance for reform.
Without decisive intervention, trends suggest conditions will worsen. More than 20,000 Nigerians have been killed and 13,000 kidnapped nationwide in 2025 alone. As Governor Hyacinth Alia stressed during Tinubu’s visit, state police may be the only viable path forward. All 36 states have submitted proposals supporting decentralisation—a crucial step towards breaking Nigeria’s vicious cycle of violence.
Editorial
Responding To Herders’ Threat In Rivers

Editorial
Democracy Day: So Far…

Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999 marked a watershed moment in the nation’s political history. After enduring nearly 16 years of successive military dictatorships, Nigerians embraced a new era of civil governance with the inauguration of President Olusegun Obasanjo on May 29, 1999. Since then, the country has sustained a democratic system for 26 years. But, this democratic journey has been a complex mix of progress and persistent challenges.
The formal recognition of June 12 as Democracy Day in 2018 by former President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledged a long-standing injustice. The annulment of the 1993 presidential election, Nigeria’s freest, betrayed the democratic aspirations of millions. That it took decades to honour this date reflects the nation’s complex relationship with its democratic memory.
One of the most momentous successes of Nigeria’s democracy has been the uninterrupted civilian rule over the last two and a half decades. The country has witnessed seven general elections, with power transferring peacefully among different political parties. This is particularly notable considering that prior to 1999, no civilian government had completed a full term without military intervention. The peaceful transitions in 2007, 2015, and 2023 are testaments to Nigeria’s evolving democratic maturity.
Electoral participation, while uneven, has also reflected a level of democratic engagement. In 2003, voter turnout stood at about 69 per cent, but this figure dropped to approximately 34.75 per cent in 2023, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Although the declining turnout raises concerns, it also highlights the increasing expectations of the electorate, who demand credible and transparent elections.
Another area of progress is the growth of a vibrant and free press. Nigerian media has played a crucial role in holding governments accountable and fostering public discourse. Investigative journalism and civil society activism have exposed corruption and human rights abuses. The rise of social media has further expanded the democratic space, enabling young Nigerians to mobilise and advocate for change, as evidenced by the 2020 #EndSARS protests.
Judicial independence has seen mixed results. On one hand, the judiciary has occasionally demonstrated resilience, such as in landmark rulings that overturned fraudulent elections or curtailed executive excesses. On the other hand, allegations of political interference and corruption within the judiciary persist, undermining public confidence in the legal system’s impartiality.
Nigeria’s democracy has also facilitated the decentralisation of power through the federal system. State governments now wield some autonomy, allowing for experimentation in governance and service delivery. While this has led to innovative policies in some states, it has also entrenched patronage networks and uneven development across the federation.
Despite these successes, Nigeria’s democratic journey faces formidable problems. Electoral integrity remains a critical concern. Reports from election observers, including those from the European Union and ECOWAS, frequently highlight issues such as vote-buying, ballot box snatching, and violence. The introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and electronic transmission of results in 2023 elections showed promise, but technical glitches and alleged manipulations dampened public trust.
Corruption continues to be a pervasive issue. Nigeria ranks 145th out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, with a score of 25/100. Democratic institutions meant to check graft—such as anti-corruption agencies and the legislature—often struggle due to political interference and weak enforcement mechanisms.
Security challenges have also strained Nigeria’s democracy. Insurgency in the North East, banditry in the North West, separatist agitations in the South East, and herder-farmer conflicts across the Middle Belt have collectively resulted in thousands of deaths and displacements. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2024, Nigeria ranks as the eighth most impacted country by terrorism. The government’s difficulty in ensuring safety erodes public confidence in the state’s capacity and legitimacy.
The economy poses another critical remonstrance. Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita stands at approximately $2,400 as of 2024, with over 40 per cent of the population living below the national poverty line. High unemployment and inflation have fueled discontent and disillusionment with democratic governance, especially among youth. Without addressing economic grievances, the democratic dividend will remain elusive for many Nigerians.
Ethnic and religious divisions further complicate Nigeria’s democratic consolidation. Politicians often exploit identity politics for electoral gains, exacerbating social tensions. Although federal character principles aim to promote inclusiveness, they have also sometimes fostered a quota mentality rather than merit-based appointments.
Gender representation remains inadequate in Nigeria’s democratic institutions. Women occupy less than 10 per cent of seats in the National Assembly, one of the lowest rates globally. Efforts to pass gender parity bills have faced stiff resistance, highlighting deep-seated cultural and institutional barriers to female political participation.
Civil liberties, while constitutionally guaranteed, are under threat. Crackdowns on protesters, restrictions on press freedom, and surveillance of activists reveal an authoritarian streak within the democratic framework. The controversial Twitter ban in 2021 exemplified the country’s willingness to curb digital freedoms, prompting domestic and international criticism.
The political crisis in Rivers State embodies broader democratic struggles. Attempts to control the state through undemocratic means expose weaknesses in federal institutions and the rule of law. Immediate restoration of democratic governance in Rivers State is vital to preserving Nigeria’s democratic integrity and institutional credibility.
Local governments remain under the control of state governors, depriving citizens of grassroots democracy. Last year’s Supreme Court judgment on local government autonomy is promising, but state-level resistance threatens its implementation. Genuine autonomy would bring governance closer to the people and foster democratic innovation.
As we mark Democracy Day, we must honour the sacrifices of Chief M.K.O. Abiola, Kudirat Abiola, Femi Falana, Chief Gani Fawehinmi, Pa Alfred Rewane, President Bola Tinubu, and countless others, who fought for Nigeria’s freedom. As democracy in Nigeria continues to evolve after 26 years, this day should inspire action toward its renewal. With despotism and state failure as real threats, both citizens and leaders must take responsibility—citizens by demanding more, and leaders by delivering. Excuses are no longer acceptable.