This week in energy was dominated by the predictions from two top energy sources – OPEC and the International Energy Agency.
On the one side you had OPEC, which is meeting on November 30th to decide the fate of production guidelines going forward. It might be no surprise, in advance of that meeting that they would upgrade their view of the global demand picture and they did – seeing at least their share of demand increasing by more than 400,000 barrels a day. This prediction would bode very well for the Saudi/OPEC strategy of continued restrictions on production going forward.
On the opposite side was the IEA, whose World Energy Outlook reduced their forecast for oil demand to a ‘mere’ 1.5m barrels a day increase in 2018 – a number that’s already historically huge, but a reduction from a forecast they had in fact increased – two times already – in 2017. More impactful, perhaps, was their longer-term forecast of global energy use. Despite their robust call for a 30 percent increase in total energy demand to 2040, they somehow managed to discount the role that crude oil was likely to play in fulfilling that demand.
Whether I buy the IEA’s prognostication skills 20+ years into the future given their helpless track record or not – (I don’t) – the WEO was blamed for a sell-off in oil futures in the last week.
Let’s discount these reports for the moment. This sell-off was more likely a result of the huge influx of hedge fund and other speculative account long positions that had accumulated in the last weeks, a negative trend I spotted and pointed out in last week’s column.
The most important question to answer is of course: What now?
It has been my position during the last several months that oil is making its way towards a new bull market and the predictive analyses do nothing to alter that position. Indeed, the one fundamental piece of news that might slow down my enthusiasm for oil isn’t related either to the IEA’s WEO report nor the overeager buying of hedge funders – it is the unsettling increase of a net nine rigs from the Baker-Hughes report of November 10th, including seven fresh drilled from the Scoop/Stack. Whether this is a trend that will creep rigs upwards again – something I definitely wasn’t expecting through the end of the year – is something that bears watching for the next several weeks.
But until that trend is definitively upended, every dip must be viewed as a buying opportunity.
And here I invite you to look at some of the names that might have rocketed upwards and might have become too expensive to enter – now moderating slowly to more appetising levels.
You know I am not your broker and will not deliver names you must buy and prices at which they must be bought. But I again will voice my preference for independent Permian shale names that have core acreage that’s proven to be profitable at $55 a barrel, with decent financials.
Many names will come to mind, including Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Concho Resources (CXO), Cimarex (XEC), EOG Resources (EOG) – and other smaller cap names like SM energy (SM) Centennial Resources (CDEV), Matador (MTDR) and Jagged Edge (JAG).
Until our thesis is broken, these are the places to look to take advantage of a market that I believe is just taking a small break from its inevitable upwards climb.
Source: Oilprice Report for 17/11/17
Motorists Want NNPC Mega Filling Station In Bori
Motorists plying the Ogoni axis in Rivers State have urged the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, (NNPC) and the Department of Petroleum Resources, (DPR) to make real their promise of establishing at least one of the mega filling stations in Bori, headquarters of Khana Local Government Area to give the people access to the facility.
Some of the motorists and residents of Bori who spoke with The Tide said the absence of the NNPC filling station in Bori has made them to continue to suffer exploitation in the hands of private filling station owners who inflates their prices at will.
A commercial motorist, Mr Paul Ndeemua who spoke with our reporters said motorists plying the Bori route were excited when they heared of plans by government to build a mega filling station in Bori, but they were surprised that there was no trace of the project in Bori long after the plan was made public through the media chat.
He said: “ We commercial motorists operating within the Bori axis were happy when we learnt sometime ago that the government was going to build mega filling station in Bori like other parts of the state were they are located, but it’s unfortunate that almost three years after the plan was announced, nothing has happened. I want to use this opportunity to call on the NNPC and the DPR to fulfill their promise by building the filling station in Bori. The project will go a long way to help commercial motorists in the area, especially in terms of access to products.”
Another commercial motorist, Mr Akanimo Udosen who spoke with The Tide also decried the conspicuous absence of the NNPC Mega Filling Station in Bori despite its location in other places.
Resident of Bori also called on the Government to build a mega filling station in Bori to serve the people of the area. Apart from assess to petroleum products, the student said the project will also give a face lift to Bori.
He called on the Rivers State Government and stakeholders in ogoni to address the rising challenges of insecurity in Khana LGA to attract investment in the area.
PPPRA To Audit Infrastructure In Downstream Oil Sector
The Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) says it will commence a comprehensive audit and survey of downstream oil and gas logistic facilities in the country.
Mr Abdulkadir Saidu, PPPRA executive secretary, disclosed this in a statement issued in Abuja last Saturday.
He said that the state of infrastructure in the downstream of the Nigerian oil and gas sector largely was a reflection of profitability and proficiency of the market.
He added that the aim of the audit was to assess the state, adequacy and identify the infrastructure gap in the sector.
“ The PPPRA recognises that the state of infrastructure in the downstream requires constant assessment to ensure uninterrupted supply of products in addition to providing up to date data for operation in the sector.
“Oil and gas processing, storage and distribution facilities, jetties downstream and pipelines, retail outlets for oil and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) will be the focus of the survey.
“ The audit also aimed at assessing the impact of government policy and regulation on the sector’s operating environment and viability, with a view to addressing identified loopholes,” he said
According to him, the exercise, which is expected to commence in the second half of 2019, is a long awaited exercise by operators and other stakeholders.
He noted that the outcome of the exercise would contribute to policy formulation and impact investment decision-making by investors.
Saidu said that the management of the PPPRA would champion the exercise, noting that it was in furtherance of the reform programme of Mr President in the oil sector.
“All oil and gas depot owners, marketers, retail outlets and LPG plant owners are stakeholders in this exercise.
“The ultimate objective of which is to enhance the commercial viability of the sector and improve its level of attractiveness as investment capital destination of choice for would-be investors.
“We therefore wish to solicit the cooperation and support of all stakeholders in ensuring its success,” he said.
NNPC, NOSDRA Move To Check Oil Spills
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) say they would partner to check the incidences of oil spill across the country.
Group Managing Director of the NNPC, Malam Mele Kyari made this known when he received the Director-General of NOSDRA, Mr Idris Musa at the NNPC Towers in Abuja on Wednesday.
In a statement signed by Mr Ndu Ughamadu, the spokesman for the corporation, Kyari said that as a national oil company, the NNPC pipelines, flow stations and assets across the country were jointly owned by the federation.
He maintained that the corporation produces crude oil to maintain a balance sheet for the nation.
“We have taken a number of steps to stem oil spill by deploying technology in order to make sure that whenever there is an oil spill incidence, it is contained almost immediately.
“We contain the incidences of oil theft, pipeline vandalism and acts of saboteurs and we intend to bring it to the barest minimum,” he said.
Kyari noted that the NNPC operated both crude oil and petroleum products pipelines, adding that the corporation was collaborating with its partners to curb incidences of oil spill in its areas of operations.
He said the corporation would also forge closer ties with NOSDRA to proactively forestall oil spill in areas that were prone to incessant incidences.
Earlier, Musa said the agency was prepared to partner the NNPC in mitigating oil spill in all areas of its operations.
He added that the partnership would ensure a good operating environment for the operators and the communities.
He added that breaking of petroleum products pipelines did not provide food, water and good environment for the people.
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