Oil & Energy

Oil Price Fall And Nigeria’s Economy

Published

9 years ago

January 12, 2015

At the 7th All Nigeria
Guild of Editors conference held in Benin, the Edo State capital on Thursday, September 22, 2011, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, raised alarm that should oil price drop below $80 per barrel in the international market, some state governments in Nigeria would not be able to pay salaries to their workers.
El-Rufai, who was speaking on the topic, “Perspectives on the Cost of Governance in Nigeria”, had strongly noted that pegging of oil price as high as $75 then in the national budget was unrealistic and not good for Nigeria’s economy.
The minister was being as prophetic as many individuals and organizations who believed that the nation’s economy which is oil dominated would be in a quagmire, should any unforeseen surprises affect the oil price in the global market.
Various experts had also, for too long been consistent in expressing strong need for drastic reduction in the high cost of Nigerian governance which gulps as high as 25% of the annual budget and one of the highest in the world.
They had equally suggested diversification of the economy from oil to other sectors particularly agriculture which hold high promises for food on the table of the average Nigerian, mass employment, raw material for industrialization and foreign exchange earning.
While most nations of the world had strategized to contain such possible economic fears, most African governments also took bold steps in preparations for the economic uncertainties, but some deaf-and-dumb governments had preferred what goes directly into the individual pockets of the leaders than the general good of the citizens. Billions of Dollars meant for constituency funds, furniture extravagant travelling allowances, amongst others find their ways to the law makers and their crowd of primal aides.
Today, the reality is not only knocking at our doors but is quite here with us. The present systematic drop in the oil price which experts predict could slide far below $50 per barrel benchmark before the end of 2015 has become Nigeria’s undoing.
Many state governments in Nigeria today are owing months of salaries arrears to their workers while contractors have abandoned projects execution because the oil price then predicted had fallen below budgetary calculations and states lack the funds to pay.
Some private schools in Port Harcourt have already given notice of increase in school fees, landlords are also threatening to raise rent, labour unions are ironically agitating for pay rise in view of recent devaluation of Naira occasioned by dramatic drop of oil price in global market even as state governments insist they would not review the $65 per barrel benchmark on which they proposed their 2015 budgets. Where would these excoriations take the nation to in the present economic situation determined by global economic reality?
An economist, George Clement, is of the view that time has come for Nigeria to elect leaders who have the capacity to proffer solutions to the socio-economic challenges confronting the nation as against empty promises for which most Nigerian political leaders are known.
“The era of touts aspiring for public offices should be over. It is time to look beyond sweet talks and empty promises now that campaign period in Nigeria is around the corner”, said Clement.
He said, “our leaders had since the oil boom of the 70s refused to do the right thing. Billions of Naira had consistently been swallowed up by the pockets of fraudulent leaders”, he remarked noting that the future generations may have nothing to be proud of about their nation if the real change is not effected.
Another respondent, Mrs Mary Jonathan, in her own reaction is challenging the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to trace the loots of the nation wherever they might have been hidden.
“Yes, it appears late but not too late. We cannot continue to wallow in poverty in a rich country while few persons in the name of politics continue to cart away our resources”, she stressed.
Jonathan appealed to the Federal Government to review the pump price downward to reflect the price of oil in the global market. “We cannot afford to pay more when actually the price has fallen. The N97 per litre of fuel is no longer realistic”, she maintained.
A civil servant, Makel Ndah, in his own reaction called for upward review of workers salary. “Since the Naira has been devalued, its exchange power has become weak, it is important that the government reviews workers salary upward to meet with the current market reality”.
A landlord in Port Harcourt Chief Clifford Nweke, said,” it is obvious that house rent would be reviewed since government has started to have a second look at the Naira.”
We are all Nigeirans, operating in the same market, so what affects one should equally affect the other. Yes some people will say landlords are wicked shylocks, but that is mere sentiment”, he maintained.
A private school proprietor who pleaded anonymity said, “we had our first Parent Teachers Meeting last week and the issue of increase of salaries was raised by the teachers and I told the parents to pray and watch because for me to pay higher workers salary means that the fees charged students would also be reviewed upward.
“Please don’t get me wrong, we have not increased school fees yet. What I am saying is that we in my school are studying the socio-economic variables. If workers salary goes up and other schools readjust to meet with the reality, we here would also adjust because we are part of the society”, he explained.
A Port Harcourt- based public analyst, Christian Nnamdi, said the issue calls for caution. “There is no need to panic yet. It is not a Nigerian thing but a global phenomenon. It does not affect only Nigeria but other nations of the world. Nigeria has many antidotes to the problem. So all we need to do is study the situation to know the dynamic nature of the change.
According to Nnamdi, the nation should not leave everything in the hands of politicians. “We need to protect the economy from the excesses of selfish Nigerian politicians and one way of doing that is to gather together some technocrats and experts in various fields especially economists. Let the think- tank develop an economic plan that should guide the policies and programmes.
Call it 25 years economic development plan. So that whichever political group that takes the mantle of leadership, will have to build whatever programme from the economic blue print.
Nnamdi blamed the woe of the nation on inconsistency of leadership, stressing that government should be seen as a continuation from where the former ends. “But you see, in Nigeria, any new administration is in the habit of abandoning the programmes of the previous administration at the detriment of so much fund sunk into such projects because they want to take credit.
“But with a long term economic development plan, new government can no longer abandon projects started by the former government. It has to inherit it and complete it for the people. This idea will make nonsense of the penchant for second term which is common in Nigeria,” he maintained.
It would be recalled that discovery of shale oil which increase supply in American oil market, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil has affected the oil supply in the global market. This high supply has reduced oil price in the global market and Nigeria, whose economy remains oil-driven is directly affected.
Nigeria whose budget depends on oil has been forced to review its oil benchmark resulting in austerity measures to contain the economic downturn.
Medium Term Expenditure framework which the Finance Minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, submitted to the National Assembly, scaled down the nation’s budgetary estimate for 2015 to N4.661 trillion as against an initial N4.817 trillion.

Chris Oluoh

Some Transformers donated by the lawmaker representing Oyigbo in the RSHA Hon. Okechukwu .A. Nwuogu

Oil & Energy

NSCDC’s Anti-Vandal Squad Uncovers Artisanal Refinery In Rivers Community

Published

4 days ago

April 15, 2024

The Tide

The Anti-Vandal Squad of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Rivers State Command, has uncovered yet another local refinery situated at Adobi-Akwa settlement in Etche Local Government Area of Rivers State.
The State Commandant, Basil Igwebueze, disclosed this while speaking to journalists shortly after the tour of the Illegal site.
Represented by the Head, Anti-Vandal Squad, CSC Peters Ibiso, Igwebueze said the squad made the discovery following a tipp off, expressing regret that no arrest was made as the boys fled the site upon sighting the squad.
The cammandant’s representative took the newsmen across a tick forest of about 6-7 kilometers from the main town.
The team sighted where the pipeline vandals tapped into the Well Head of yet to be ascertained multinational company, connected their galvanised pipes to several cooking pots, heat up the crude to produce Automotive Gas Oil (AGO).
In his words, “Upon receiving a tip-off, the Anti-Vandal operatives swung into action to uncover this illegal oil bunkering site. They were in this forest for two days having cordoned the area, unfortunately, the perpetrators upon sighting our men took to their heels, but investigation is still ongoing to effect the arrests of such defiant elements”.
The Anti-Vandal Unit Head further narrated the operation techniques of the operators of local illegal refineries from the point of extraction of crude through vandalism of oil pipelines to cooking in various ovens where the content is subjected to high temperature and transmitted through pipes to reservoirs for storage and onward trans- loading to buyers.
While insisting that the command would not relent in the fight against illegal dealings in petroleum products, he urged the public to have more trust in the NSCDC by providing actionable intelligence that would enhance possible arrest of economic saboteurs in the State.
“Our commitment to continuously work in tandem with the prosecutorial mandate of the corps in order to rid the State of economic saboteurs remains unchanged. We value our informants and most especially the intelligence driven tip-off received from time to time.
“It is also our duty to ensure that our source of information are not disclosed so as to protect our informants. It is therefore our delight that the public will continue to have confidence and trust in us as we together protect the nation’s critical national assets and infrastructure from dare devil vandals”, he stated.

By: Lady Godknows Ogbulu

Oil & Energy

Oil Fund Withdrawals Suggest Extended Price Rally

Published

4 days ago

April 15, 2024

The Tide

The world’s largest crude oil exchange-traded fund has bled over $2 billion in less than a year. And it i
s not due to investors finding greener pastures elsewhere with other ETFs; it is the siren call of soaring prices that is prompting this mass exodus.
The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil exchange-traded commodity had assets under management of some $2.5 billion last summer, according to Bloomberg. Now, the publication reports, this is down to $396 million, with withdrawals accelerating over the past few days.
In that, withdrawals seem to be following price trends. Brent earlier this month topped $90 per barrel and, after a short pause earlier this week, is back above that threshold again following the latest Israeli strike on the Gaza Strip amid reports about a possible ceasefire.
While it is true that prices are currently driven higher mainly by geopolitical events, fundamentals are also at play. A growing number of forecasters are updating their predictions for benchmarks this year on expectations of resilient demand and increasingly tighter supply. And investors are following the trend.
Even those who have not sold their ETF holdings in order to invest more directly in the rally are benefitting. That same WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETC generated returns of over 13 percent during the first quarter of the year as opposed to an average 8.8% gain in the S&P 500.
The WisdomTree exchange-traded commodity became the world’s largest oil fund at the beginning of last year. The fund saw inflows of over $1 billion, which poured in as the deflation in oil prices that had begun in late 2022 extended into the new year. Now, the trend has reversed and it has reversed strongly.
The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil ETC is not the only fund seeing outflows. The U.S. Oil Fund, which used to be the world’s biggest oil fund before the WisdomTree inflows last year and is now the world’s biggest oil fund once again, also saw a flurry of investor exits as benchmarks climbed higher.
According to Bloomberg, the fund’s assets under management currently stand at $1.3 billion, down from some $5 billion during the pandemic.
In further evidence that oil makes money, the Middle East is about to become the only region in the world with three trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is worth $993 billion, Bloomberg reported in March, while the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Kuwait Investment Authority are breathing down its neck.
Meanwhile, investment in transition-related stocks is on the decline, according to data reported by Reuters. The S&P Global Clean Energy Index is down by 10% since the start of the year. In comparison, the S&P 500 Energy Index, which comprises Big Oil names, has gained 16.3%.
The data shows that investors are growing wary of all the promises made by transition advocates as evidence mounts that these were not based on due diligence. Wind and solar stocks suffered a crash last year when this first became clear.
Now, we are witnessing a continued awakening among investors to the challenges and the realistic potential of transition technology and alternative energy sources.
“With conventional energy having its own bull run, I think the alternative funds will struggle for the foreseeable future, and we shall see what the election brings”, the Managing Director of capital markets at Phoenix Capital Group Holdings told Reuters.
The comment summarizes the challenging situation for alternative energy investment and highlights the rebound of interest in oil and gas, much to the chagrin of decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic.
In both Europe and the U.S., things can get even worse for the transition after the respective elections—in June for European Parliament and in November for U.S. President. It will certainly be an interesting year in energy.
Slav writes for oilprice.

By: Irina Slav

Oil & Energy

CNG Initiative: FG Targets 25,000 Jobs, $2.5bn Investment

Published

4 days ago

April 15, 2024

The Tide

The Programme Director and Chief Executive, Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiatives, Michael Oluwagbemi, has announced the Federal Government’s plan to target over 25,000 jobs and $2.5 billion worth of investment by 2027.
Oluwagbemi made this known during the Presidential CNG stakeholders’ engagement workshop held at BOVAS Auto-Gas Filling Stations, Ajibode Bus-Stop, in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, at the weekend.
He stated that the initiative, which was part of palliative measures to ease the burden of the removal of fuel subsidy, would attract enormous investment and job creation as well as impact positively on the lives of Nigerians.
Meanwhile, he called on Nigerians to embrace the new initiatives by the Federal Government as part of palliatives to cushion the effect of the removal of fuel subsidy in the country.
“On October 1, 2023, when the President gave his speech, he announced that the Presidential CNG initiatives are going to be rolled out as part of palliatives on the removal of fuel subsidy.
“One of our major concerns is to make sure that the transition for the transportation sector is a cheaper, safer, and more reliable source of energy.
“In the coming weeks, we are going to be announcing the conversion incentives programme which will enable Nigerians currently using PMS and Diesel fuel vehicles to be able to convert their vehicles at designated places across the country at a discounted price based on certain pre-qualification under the palliative programme of the Federal Government”, he said.
On the value chain of the initiative, Oluwagbemi explained that the Federal Ministry of Finance is acquiring tricycles and buses that would be assembled and manufactured in Nigeria, with more than five automobile firms being activated.
“The value chain of the programme starts with every one of us. From the point of converting your vehicle, you have created the demand for natural gas.
“If your vehicle is converted by technicians and refuelled by autogas workshops across the country, then you are creating jobs for civil engineers and technicians. You’re creating jobs for the upstream in terms of upstream activities associated with oil and gas.
“And in line with the programme, the Federal Ministry of Finance is acquiring a number of tricycles and buses that will be assembled and manufactured in Nigeria. More than five of our automobile firms have been activated. So, you can see that in terms of job creation, the opportunities for Nigerians are enormous.
“The President has said we need to convert one million vehicles by 2027. We need 1,000 conversion shops and we need over 3,000 filing stations just like this. You can imagine the level of investment required for this.
“In order to sustain one million vehicle conversions by 2027, we need 25,000 technicians. So, the job creation potential is an opportunity for job creation in addition to our gross domestic product, $2.5 billion worth of investment to be mobilised in the next four years and of course more than $25 billion added to our GDP”, he said.
Oluwagbemi further called on Nigerians to embrace the new initiatives by the Federal Government as part of palliatives to cushion the effect of the removal of fuel subsidy in the country.
The representative of BOVAS Filling Station, a private investor in the Presidential CNG Initiatives, Temitope Samson, said, “We have worked with the regulators, we are also working with the Presidential Initiatives on CNG to make sure that standard safety is adhered to. We have also worked with the Standard Organisation of Nigeria to ensure that we have a standard accepted internationally.
“Our role is to ensure that there is availability of CNG across the nation, and to also ensure we have enough kits and tanks that are converted for people to use as many as possible, and to ensure safety and to train others so that anywhere they get to, they have very safe conversion”.
Recall that last year, President Bola Tinubu approved the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas initiative(PCNG-i)
This initiative aims to not only introduce more than 11,500 new CNG-enabled vehicles and provide 55,000 CNG conversion kits for existing vehicles that depend on Premium Motor Spirit but also promote local manufacturing, assembly, and job creation.