Battle For The Swing States …Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado – The Tie Breakers


Most Swing-States Polls at the weekend showed Obama clinging to slender leads in five of the eight most heavily contested states – Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

In most polls however, Romney had a slight lead in Colorado while they remained effectively tied in Florida.

A Reuters/Ipsos online poll last Thursday had showed Obama with a 5-point lead in Virginia, and 2-points leads among likely voters in both Ohio and Florida. On his part, Romney led by one-point in Colorado in the same Reuters/Ipsos polls.

The Battle Grounds

1.         Ohio

2.         Wisconsin

3.         Iowa

4.         Nevada

5.         New Hampshire

6.         Florida

7.         Colorado

8.         Virginia

But The Tide independent analysis shows that the Battle for the U.S White House between President Obama and Republican challenger Romney remained very close by weekend, particularly in four battle ground states expected to decide tomorrow’s presidential elections.

However, Obama built a small lead in Virginia according to our sources, depending on polls released at the weekend.

The incumbent Democratic President leads his Republican challenger by five percentage points among likely voters in Virginia, at 49 percent to 44 percent.

The polls earlier on tracked by The Tide last Wednesday, quoting the Washington Post, Gravis Marketing, purple strategies, Rasmussen, Fox News, PPP, Mellman, Wenzel strategies, Callfire, Old Dominion, Pulse Opinion Research, American Research group and You Gov had posted average polls result that gave Obama 50.0 percent as against Romney’s 49 percent.

In the 2000 elections, former President George Bush a Republican won Virginia scoring 1,437,400 as against AI Gore’s (Democratic) 1,217,290 popular votes – Bush won all electoral votes of 13 in that election.

In 2004, Bush repeated same feat against the John Kerry/John Edwards Democratic 62,040,61 (50.73 per cent) as against his opponent’s 59,028.43 per cent.

Bush also won 286 electoral votes representing 53.2 percent as against the Democratic pair’s 251 electoral votes representing 48.27 percent.

However in 2008, Obama won Virginia and clinched 13 electoral votes in an election he scored 69,499.428 popular vote and 365 electoral votes representing 67.8 percent to defeat Sen. John S. McCain who secured 59,950.323 popular votes and 173 electoral votes representing 32.2 percent.

The recent margin between Obama and Romney in Virginia exceeds the survey’s 4-point credibility interval, the tool used to account for statistical variation in internet polls.

Also, Obama enjoyed two-point leads among likely voters in both Ohio and Florida, leaving those races statistically tied.

However, polls showed that Romney led by 47-46 percent in Colorado edging Obama behind in another dead heat scenario.

With the national race tied or nearly so in most polls, the presidency will tomorrow be decided in a handful of hotly contested swing states where the battle for the White House is now mostly considered too close to call.

The trends are important despite, the small size of the leads, IPSOS pollster Julia Clark said, especially in Virginia, where as at last night Obama led by just two percentage points in polls results earlier release on Wednesday.

National Polls, Abit Stable

Incumbent President Obama still led his Republican Challenger, Mitt Romney by press time yesterday by one percentage point nationally according to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracing poll conducted from October 28 to November 4, (yesterday), a margin within the online survey’s credibility interval.

The national race had been stable even as  the November 6 election day, tomorrow approaches despite a barrage of late campaign ads and the effects of Superstorm Sandy. Obama still had 47 percent and Romney 46 percent in the online polls for three days running.

Strangely, backing for both candidates seems solid, according to Reuters. In the national survey, for instance, 11 percent of Romney’s supporters said they might change their mind, and just 8 percent of Obama’s backers indicated same.

About a quarter-26 percent of registered voters said they have already cast their ballots. Among them, Obama lead 52 percent to Romney’s 43 per cent. The number is however, not predictive, says Reuters because, according to it, Democrats were typically more likely to vote than Republicans.

The State polls also showed Democratic Senate candidates in Ohio and Florida leading by wider margins than Obama’s advantage in the presidential race.

In Ohio for instance, The Tide source reported, Senator Sherrod Brown (Democrat) led Republican Josh Mandel by 50 percent to 42 percent. And in Florida, Senator Bill Nelson (Democrat) led Connie Mack by 52 percent to 41 percent.

Also, Democratic candidate Tim Kaine was ahead in the Virginia senate race, but his 47 -44 percent advantage over Republican George Athen was within survey’s credibility interval.

In the national survey, monitored by The Tide Saturday, the poll seemed to have a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percent points for likely voters.

Blow To Republicans

Voters in Tennessee will be allowed to use Memphis library cards as photo identification in tomorrow’s election, the Tennesse Supreme Court ruled last Thursday in what appears a big blow to Republicans who had wanted only ID issued by the Federal and State governments to be allowed.

Tennessee is among a number of states that have passed laws requiring voters to show photo ID.

Republicans said laws were needed to deter fraud, while Democrats said they were aimed at depressing voter turnout who typically support their party.

The Tennesse law, which took effect at the beginning of the year, requires people to show driver’s license, states-issued handgun carry permit, a U.S passport or another form of government-issued ID to vote. Students IDs are not acceptable.

Memphis, which is a heavily Democratic city in the otherwise mostly Republican State, filed a lawsuit in July claiming the law would disenfranchise voters who used other valid government issued IDs to vote.

The case went to the Tennesse Appeals court which ruled last week that the requirement that voters have photo identification was constitutional but that the Memphis Library Cards at the heart of legal challenge were acceptable at the polling places.

Tennessee’s Republican Secretary of State Tre Hargett had appealled the provision regarding the library cards to the State Supreme Court.

In its ruling last Thursday that court agreed to hear Hargrett’s appeal but declined to set it aside in the meantime, saying “the right to vote has profound constitutional significance” and ordered that the Memphis Library Cards be accepted for the upcoming elections.

Mark Goins, coordinator of elections for Tennesse and a Republican, said his office had advised the country election commission to accept cards following the ruling last Thursday.

“We continue to believe the General Assembly clearly intended for only state or federal – issued photo IDs to be valid for the purposes of identifying voters and remain confident the Supreme Court, will confirm our interpretations” Goins said.

Memphis is the only place in the state where identification other than that issued by the state or federal government will be accepted,” Goins said.

Additional reporting for Reuters by Tim Ghiani, edited by many Wisnieswski, Cynthia John and Paul Simao.