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Battle For The Swing States …Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado – The Tie Breakers

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Most Swing-States Polls at the weekend showed Obama clinging to slender leads in five of the eight most heavily contested states – Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

In most polls however, Romney had a slight lead in Colorado while they remained effectively tied in Florida.

A Reuters/Ipsos online poll last Thursday had showed Obama with a 5-point lead in Virginia, and 2-points leads among likely voters in both Ohio and Florida. On his part, Romney led by one-point in Colorado in the same Reuters/Ipsos polls.

The Battle Grounds

1.         Ohio

2.         Wisconsin

3.         Iowa

4.         Nevada

5.         New Hampshire

6.         Florida

7.         Colorado

8.         Virginia

But The Tide independent analysis shows that the Battle for the U.S White House between President Obama and Republican challenger Romney remained very close by weekend, particularly in four battle ground states expected to decide tomorrow’s presidential elections.

However, Obama built a small lead in Virginia according to our sources, depending on polls released at the weekend.

The incumbent Democratic President leads his Republican challenger by five percentage points among likely voters in Virginia, at 49 percent to 44 percent.

The polls earlier on tracked by The Tide last Wednesday, quoting the Washington Post, Gravis Marketing, purple strategies, Rasmussen, Fox News, PPP, Mellman, Wenzel strategies, Callfire, Old Dominion, Pulse Opinion Research, American Research group and You Gov had posted average polls result that gave Obama 50.0 percent as against Romney’s 49 percent.

In the 2000 elections, former President George Bush a Republican won Virginia scoring 1,437,400 as against AI Gore’s (Democratic) 1,217,290 popular votes – Bush won all electoral votes of 13 in that election.

In 2004, Bush repeated same feat against the John Kerry/John Edwards Democratic 62,040,61 (50.73 per cent) as against his opponent’s 59,028.43 per cent.

Bush also won 286 electoral votes representing 53.2 percent as against the Democratic pair’s 251 electoral votes representing 48.27 percent.

However in 2008, Obama won Virginia and clinched 13 electoral votes in an election he scored 69,499.428 popular vote and 365 electoral votes representing 67.8 percent to defeat Sen. John S. McCain who secured 59,950.323 popular votes and 173 electoral votes representing 32.2 percent.

The recent margin between Obama and Romney in Virginia exceeds the survey’s 4-point credibility interval, the tool used to account for statistical variation in internet polls.

Also, Obama enjoyed two-point leads among likely voters in both Ohio and Florida, leaving those races statistically tied.

However, polls showed that Romney led by 47-46 percent in Colorado edging Obama behind in another dead heat scenario.

With the national race tied or nearly so in most polls, the presidency will tomorrow be decided in a handful of hotly contested swing states where the battle for the White House is now mostly considered too close to call.

The trends are important despite, the small size of the leads, IPSOS pollster Julia Clark said, especially in Virginia, where as at last night Obama led by just two percentage points in polls results earlier release on Wednesday.

National Polls, Abit Stable

Incumbent President Obama still led his Republican Challenger, Mitt Romney by press time yesterday by one percentage point nationally according to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracing poll conducted from October 28 to November 4, (yesterday), a margin within the online survey’s credibility interval.

The national race had been stable even as  the November 6 election day, tomorrow approaches despite a barrage of late campaign ads and the effects of Superstorm Sandy. Obama still had 47 percent and Romney 46 percent in the online polls for three days running.

Strangely, backing for both candidates seems solid, according to Reuters. In the national survey, for instance, 11 percent of Romney’s supporters said they might change their mind, and just 8 percent of Obama’s backers indicated same.

About a quarter-26 percent of registered voters said they have already cast their ballots. Among them, Obama lead 52 percent to Romney’s 43 per cent. The number is however, not predictive, says Reuters because, according to it, Democrats were typically more likely to vote than Republicans.

The State polls also showed Democratic Senate candidates in Ohio and Florida leading by wider margins than Obama’s advantage in the presidential race.

In Ohio for instance, The Tide source reported, Senator Sherrod Brown (Democrat) led Republican Josh Mandel by 50 percent to 42 percent. And in Florida, Senator Bill Nelson (Democrat) led Connie Mack by 52 percent to 41 percent.

Also, Democratic candidate Tim Kaine was ahead in the Virginia senate race, but his 47 -44 percent advantage over Republican George Athen was within survey’s credibility interval.

In the national survey, monitored by The Tide Saturday, the poll seemed to have a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percent points for likely voters.

Blow To Republicans

Voters in Tennessee will be allowed to use Memphis library cards as photo identification in tomorrow’s election, the Tennesse Supreme Court ruled last Thursday in what appears a big blow to Republicans who had wanted only ID issued by the Federal and State governments to be allowed.

Tennessee is among a number of states that have passed laws requiring voters to show photo ID.

Republicans said laws were needed to deter fraud, while Democrats said they were aimed at depressing voter turnout who typically support their party.

The Tennesse law, which took effect at the beginning of the year, requires people to show driver’s license, states-issued handgun carry permit, a U.S passport or another form of government-issued ID to vote. Students IDs are not acceptable.

Memphis, which is a heavily Democratic city in the otherwise mostly Republican State, filed a lawsuit in July claiming the law would disenfranchise voters who used other valid government issued IDs to vote.

The case went to the Tennesse Appeals court which ruled last week that the requirement that voters have photo identification was constitutional but that the Memphis Library Cards at the heart of legal challenge were acceptable at the polling places.

Tennessee’s Republican Secretary of State Tre Hargett had appealled the provision regarding the library cards to the State Supreme Court.

In its ruling last Thursday that court agreed to hear Hargrett’s appeal but declined to set it aside in the meantime, saying “the right to vote has profound constitutional significance” and ordered that the Memphis Library Cards be accepted for the upcoming elections.

Mark Goins, coordinator of elections for Tennesse and a Republican, said his office had advised the country election commission to accept cards following the ruling last Thursday.

“We continue to believe the General Assembly clearly intended for only state or federal – issued photo IDs to be valid for the purposes of identifying voters and remain confident the Supreme Court, will confirm our interpretations” Goins said.

Memphis is the only place in the state where identification other than that issued by the state or federal government will be accepted,” Goins said.

Additional reporting for Reuters by Tim Ghiani, edited by many Wisnieswski, Cynthia John and Paul Simao.

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Interview with the employer: how to get a job

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Interview with the employer: how to get a job
Interview with the employer is an important stage for the applicant. Find out how to pass the interview successfully to get the job you want.

Interview with the employer

Interview with the employer is an important stage for the applicant. The success of the interview impacts the further employment of the candidate, as well as his status in the eyes of the future employer. For a more profitable self-presentation, it’s useful to know the ways of adjusting to the way of thinking of the interlocutor. Understanding the values and beliefs of the potential employer will help establish trustful communication and circumvent the competitors for the vacant position.
According to the autobiography essay help service, when meeting the employer, try to determine the type of people your potential employer belongs to. In this case, focus on the classification, which conditionally divides people into rational and emotional.
Each person conceives, plans, and implements his own affairs in different ways. The structure of some companies is similar to a well-defined mechanism, of others it is very democratic. Depending on the type of personality of the leader, rational or irrational (emotional), the company’s policy as a whole and work in it are built.

Characteristics of the rational and irrational employer

The rational employer is a person who prefers to own a situation, devotes much time to planning, as well as is prone to consistency and a clear order of accomplishment of tasks. Such an employer perfectly understands what criteria and qualities a potential employee should have, what functions should be in the company, what results his work should bring.
From the applicant, this employer prefers to hear clear arguments, what specific tasks and how he will be able to solve them by taking up this or that position. In this case, the statement that you really like this company, and you try to justify the hopes placed on you will sound unconvincing. Loyalty to the company is an emotional component, it is not interesting to rational employers. These are people who do not like to talk in vain and prefer to be concrete.
Observe the organization of work in the office, carefully look at how people look, and how their workplace is organized. Rational employers, as a rule, have everything in its place. Listen to what the potential boss says. How even his speech is, how prepared and thoughtful his questions are. This, of course, will tell you whether one can classify his personality type as rational.
Irrational employers are constantly on the phone and simultaneously deal with several tasks at the same time. This is a person who is simultaneously able to realize several tasks. First of all, he is interested in the current situation. Such people do not like monotony, quickly make decisions, relying not only on logic, but also on their own attitude to the issue, often deviate from the plan and schedule.
The speech of such a boss is less structured, he can often be distracted from the originally asked topic, simultaneously finding out the important points for him. This is usually open and emotional people, for whom the positive emotional climate in the team is important. The approach to such an employer lies through the initiative of the employee, loyalty to the company, openness and friendliness. In this case, you should show not only your professionalism and ability to cope with tasks but also that you’re comfortable to work with.
In order to properly build an interview with a potential employer, you need some time to observe his manners and the situation in the company.
Formulate answers to the questions of the potential employer according to the needs of his personality type. Clearly and succinctly or more emotionally and openly. This adjustment and the acquisition of a common language at the interview is guaranteed to allocate you among the other candidates and will provide employment for the desired workplace.

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WHO Wins The White House? …Obama Or Romney

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The White House

The battle for the White House is very fierce, not close to what incumbent President Barack Obama saw in his challenge of ‘Change’ and the ‘yes we can’ slogan in 2008 against more popular Arizona Senator and renowned war veteran John McCain.

This time, it is with a presumptive Republican nominee who is wealthy grounded in business and acclaimed as a favourite to create more jobs for Americans and revamp the US economy.

Even with reasonable improvements in jobs created and better but modest growth of the economy, the highest since Obama inherited the economic mess left behind by Republican Predecessor, George Bush, Jnr. Americans still remain divide over which of the two Presidential contenders is better suited for the White House job.

However, most gallop polls prefer Romney as a better candidate to create jobs, while many Americns expressed empathy with the incumbent.

But the first of three Presidential debates, generally adjudged to have been won by Challenger Mitt Romney opened the race in a manner never contemplated by bookmakers. Truth however, was that Romney emerged more likeable than the Obama campaigns initially portrayed him and which resulted in a rare momentum that left the presidential race in a dead-heat.

Although, Obama was presumed winner of the subsequent second and third debates, the Romney momentum went further  than imagined and not merely succeeded in rallying the hitherto skeptical Republican base but also created ample doubts in minds of Independents.

As at Monday last week, just before Super Storm Sandy, virtually all polls were either tied or in favour of Romney. In fact, polls according to States by Wednesday showed Romney garnering majority of 26 States as against Obama’s 22 while three States remained tossups.

The ice breaker thus became among other variables, handling of Super Storm Sandy in States within the North East and more importantly, the closing arguments by the candidates, particularly in battle ground States like Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

The outcome of elections  in these States also depend on a good number of variables, among them fanatical response of undecided voters, among them White males and seniors for Romney and African Americans for Obama.

After the Super Storm Sandy, Obama’s Presidential handling earned him two major endorsements, one from major Republican Governor of New Jersy Chris Christie who preferred Obama by 64 per cent to fellow Republican Romney 36 per cent. Also, New York major, a Republican turned-Independent, Michael Bloomberg also endorsed Obama because of the Democrat’s drive towards Climate Change and the president’s proactive measures in tackling the stormy disasters.

See Sandy: Blessing In Disguise)

Even so, most polls predict a tied race with Romney leading Obama in most states and Obama leading in others.

Each of the candidates require a minimum of 270 electoral votes to win the White House. So, what does electoral vote mean in the U.S. How can a candidate win elections in the USA, is it by majority of American votes?

If so, why did Democratic Presidential candidate Al Gore lose to incumbent George Bush in 2004?

In that year, for instance, there were a total of 538 electoral votes available with 270 need to win. Republican George W. Bush with 50,456,002 popular votes won 286 electoral votes, while his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, won the popular vote with 50,999,837 votes but won only 251 electoral votes. Bush was elected president.

So what is the likely scenario this year? Republican Mitt Romney leads in more states and is likely to garner majority votes, were the elections held yesterday, while Obama is more secure with more electoral votes of likely to hit the 271 mark on account of his control of states with bigger electoral votes.

But is that possible? How? Why? A look at the Electoral College votes from each state and a little maths will tell that the electoral system makes it possible for a candidate to actually lose the nationwide popular vote, but be elected president by the electoral college. 

 

Soye Wilson Jamabo with Agency reports

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Stormy Storm-Sandy, A Factor

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President Barack Obama and Republican Challenger Mitt Romney went back on the attack last after midweek, breaking a storm-induced campaign truce to hit the road and pound home their closing messages in the final stretch of the battle for the White House, reported Reuters’ Jeff Mason.

The Tide source gathered that on that drive, Obama resurrected his 2008 “Change” slogan and said he was the only candidate who had actually fought for it.

In 2008, the Senator, Barack Obama became the first African American ever to become President of the World’s most powerful free nation on earth, the United States of America.

On the ballot for that year’s presidential election were eventual Winner Barack Hussein Obama and Joseph R. Biden as Vice Presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket; Senator John S. McCain and Alaska governor Sarah Palin on the Republican ticket; Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez of the Independent Party and Bob Barr. And Wayne Allyn Root of the Libertarian Party.

In 2008, Obama’s campaign on change was easily enhanced by the economic misfortunes of the George W. Bush’s eight-year presidency, so Americans embraced the message of the Democrats.

In the end, Obama emerged President of the United States, the first of his race to achieve that feat. See results below.

The resurgence of the ‘Change,’ campaign as distinct from the ‘Forward,’ Obama has preached all through the campaign was to dilute challenger Mitt Romney’s ‘Change’ slogan believed to be gaining grounds among independents.

Romney had criticised Obama as a lover of big government who would expand the federal bureacracy.

Reuters’ National polls monitored by The Tide last Friday night had shown the presidential race deadlocked, and Obama and Romney determined to spend the final days in eight swing States that should decide who wins the required 270 electoral votes (See Box For Electoral Votes per State) needed to capture the White House.

Obama had made Wisconson the first stop on a four-State swing on same day that also took him to rallies in Nevada and Colorado and then spent the night in Ohio. On the other hand, Romney had a full day campaigning across Virginia.

“You may be frustrated at the pace of change, but you know what I believe. You know where I stand.” Obama told a crowd of 2,600 people on an airport tarmac in Winsconsin, a vital piece of his electoral strategy.

“I know what change looks like because I’ve fought for it,” Obama said, in veiled reference to his thrills and travails of the 2008 Presidential polls which he won.

Romney had earlier criticised Obama’s comment in an interview aired by MSNBC on Monday that he would like to consolidate government agencies that deal with business issues in a new department under a secretary of business.

“I don’t think adding a new chair to his cabinet will help add millions of jobs on Main Streets” Romney was quoted as saying:

Obama and Romney had put campaigning on hold for several days as the historic storm SANDY pounded the eastern seaboard, leaving a trail of destruction and forcing Obama to turn his attention to storm relief.

The pause produced some unexpected political benefits for Obama, who won warm praise from Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersy, a major Romney supporter, and he spent days directing federal relief efforts in a show of Presidential leadership that largely sidelined Romney.

Sandy: Blessing In Disguise

…As New York Mayor Endorses Obama

New York Mayor, Micheal Bloomberg – a Republican-turned-Independent who did not back a candidate in 2008, last Thursday endorsed President Barack Obama and cited Democrats record on climate change, in the aftermath of the storm Sandy.

Bloomberg said Obama had taken significant steps to reduce carbon consumption, while Romney had backtracked on earlier positions he took as governor of Massachusetts to battle climate change.

Obama in response said he was “honoured” by the backing of Bloomberg, who flirted with White House runs in the past.

Bloomberg, wrote in an opinion article for Bloomberg View, a section of Bloomberg News, “Our Climate is Changing.”

“And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be-given the devastation – should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.”

With Obama locked in a neck and neck battle with Romney, the endorsement coming five days before tomorrow’s election was huge.

Bloomberg’s endorsement came after Obama had won similar praise from New Jersy Governor Chris Christie a Republican, and Romney’s biggest supporter, for Obama’s quick reaction to super storm Sandy.

Obama Enjoys Swing-State Advantage

The quest to garner the required 270 electoral votes to retain White House as President got brighter for Obama fuelled primarily by a small, but steady lead in the vital battleground of Ohio – a crucial piece of any winning scenario for either candidate.

Barring any surprises elsewhere, The Tide predicts that Obama will win a second term by capturing the Midwestern bastions of Ohio, Wisconson and Iowa, same reason the president’s scheduled tour was aimed at shoring up his safety net there.

Spurred by that drive, Obama visited Ohio on each of the last four days of his campaign in addition to two more trips to both Winsconsin and Iowa. He concludes his campaign tonight with Rock Singer Bruce Springsteen in Iowa, where a 2008 cancus win launched his run to the Presidency.

However, Obama made just one visit each in the final days to Florida and Virginia where most polls, up till last Friday gave Romney a slight lead.

On his part, Romney hit Winsconsin and Ohio last Friday, and New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado on Saturday. He finishes up his campaign tonight in Hampshire, the State where he lunched his bid last year.

However, Romney’s campaign had aired ads in the past few-days in the Democratic-leaning States of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, in hope to put them in play after polls showed the races tightening but with Obama still ahead.

The Campaign explained why Romney visited Pennsylvania yesterday, marking his first visit since the nominating convention because it was one of his new target States.

The Tide electoral maths shows that win in Pennsylvania would be a crippling blow to Obama, but most public polls still show Obama leading in that State.

However, Romney aides insisted at the weekend that the moves in those three new states were a sign of their growing momentum, although, Obama aides described them as a desperate ploy to fund new paths to 270 electoral votes.

A Reuters/Ipsos National online poll at the weekend (Friday) had showed the race remained effectively deadlocked; with Obama at 47 per cent to Romney’s 46 per cent, most national polls monitored by The Tide showed roughly same results.

Romney’s campaign stop in Pennsylvania Sunday was therefore, to take advantage of what aides saw as the possibility of an upset win over President Obama in the traditionally Democratic State, a step Democratic strategists view as a tall order.

However, Romney campaign aides decided the visit took place in the Southeastern portion of the State. Romney had held off on campaign visits to the State because it appeared Obama had the State locked up. But polls have tightened in recent weeks, although he (Romney) still trails behind Obama.

The visit he had calculated would give two potential goals. If Romney were to win Pennsylvania, it could provide a buffer for him should he lose Ohio, crusial battleground State where Obama had been holding a small but persistent lead in the polls.

No Republican candidate had won the Presidential race without winning Ohio.

Winning Pennsylvania, therefore, could expand Romney’s path for winning the required 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

Strangely, Romney had a narrow path that relies on hopes of winning a number of other battle ground States like Virginia, Florida and North Corolina where the race is too close to call.

The Obama campaign according to Reuters accounts, had been dismissive of Romney’s last minute efforts to increase his profile after the campaign announced it was running television ads there.

A senior Romney adviser had said Romney’s wife, Ann Romney had been campaigning in Pennsylvania on her  husband’s behalf and found an improving picture for him there.

 

Soye Wilson Jamabo with Agency Reports

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