Vision 20:2020 is an articulation of the long-term intent to launch Nigeria onto a path of sustained social and economic progress and accelerate the emergence of a truly prosperous and united Nigeria. Recognizing the enormous human and natural endowments of the nation, the blueprint is an expression of Nigeria’s intent to improve the living standards of her citizens and place the country among the Top 20 economies in the world with a minimum GDP of $900 billion and a per capita income of no less than $4000 per annum.
Nigeria’s targets for 2020 are based on a dynamic comparative analysis of the country’s potential growth rate and economic structure vis-à-vis those of other Top 40 economies in the world. This implies that the Nigerian economy must grow at an average of 13.8% during the time horizon, driven by the agricultural and industrial sectors over the medium term while a transition to a service-based economy is envisaged from 2018.
Fundamental to the Vision are two broad objectives – optimizing human and natural resources to achieve rapid economic growth, and translating that growth into equitable social development for all citizens. These aspirations are defined across four dimensions:
A peaceful, equitable, harmonious and just society, where every citizen has a strong sense of national identity and citizens are supported by an educational and health care system that caters for all, and sustains a life expectancy of not less than 70 years.
A globally competitive economy that is resilient and diversified with a globally competitive manufacturing sector that is tightly integrated and contributes no less than 25% to Gross Domestic Product.
A stable and functional democracy where the rights of the citizens to determine their leaders are guaranteed, and adequate infrastructure exists to support a market-friendly and globally competitive business environment.
A level of environmental consciousness that enables and supports sustainable management of the nation’s God-given natural endowments to ensure their preservation for the benefit of present and future generations.
The need for a holistic transformation of the Nigerian state has assumed an urgent and critical dimension in the course of the last two decades. Notable is the increasing relevance of Nigeria as a leading emerging market albeit with under-utilized potential. With the return to democratic rule in 1999, and the gradual rebuilding of civil institutions and a vibrant market economy, the feasibility of Nigeria assuming a key position as a global economic power and a catalytic hub for development in Africa has become more profound. Using an all-inclusive consultative process involving over 1,000 of the nation’s leading professionals and thinkers, Vision 20:2020 is an authentic blueprint by the Nigerian people to set for themselves a stretch target to transform the lives of the average Nigerian, and by implication the Nigerian economy.
The roadmap for Nigeria’s economic transformation: How Vision 20:2020 will be realized
The economic transformation strategy for Nigeria is anchored upon three overarching thrusts:
1. Creating the platform for success by urgently and immediately addressing the most debilitating constraints to Nigeria’s growth and competitiveness;
2. Forging ahead with diligence and focus in developing the fabric of the envisioned economy by:
a. Aggressively pursuing a structural transformation from a mono-product economy to a diversified, industrialized economy.
b. Investing to transform the Nigerian people into catalysis for growth and national renewal, and a lasting source of comparative advantage; and
c. Investing to create an environment that enables the co-existence of growth and development on an enduring and sustainable basis.
3. Developing and deepening the capability of government to consistently translate national strategic intent into action and results by instituting evidence-based decision making in Nigeria’s public policy space.
The three pillars of Vision 20:2020 represent the building blocks of the future that Nigerians desire. The key strategic objectives of these pillars are outlined below:
Vision 20:2020 is anchored on the recognition that the people are the most essential assets of any nation. With a teeming and vibrant population of over 140 million people, Nigeria represents one of the largest markets in the developing world. Transforming Nigeria’s people into catalysts for growth and national renewal, and a lasting source of comparative advantage is the essence of this pillar of Vision 20:2020.
Given the nation’s history of wide income inequality, which is manifested in large-scale poverty, unemployment and poor access to healthcare, the disconnect between our economic growth and human development has to be addressed to increase the well-being and ultimately labour productivity of our people.
Nigeria currently ranks 158 our of 177 economies on the Human Development Index (HDR 2008), despite her rich cultural endowment and abundant human and natural resources.
Selected Human Development Indicators: Nigeria Vs Other Selected Countries
Vision 20:2020 recognises the criticality of attaining the 2015 Millennium Development Goals and improving the wellbeing of our populace, especially the under-privileged, including women and children.
To attain our people-oriented goals, Vision 20:2020 seeks amongst others to:
·Adopt a deentralised approach to the development and implementation of pro-poor programmes.
· Reform the educational system in conjunction with states and local governments to enforce completion of the mandatory nine-year Universal Basic Education programme, while building new capacity in technical and vocational education.
· Support small scale and rural farmers while sustaining the renewed national focus on commercial agriculture.
· Encourage population control measures to reduce the massive demand-pull on existing resources.
· Expand and enhance the primary health care system to improve access to health for all citizens while improving the national health database as a tool for proactive health delivery planning.
· Improve the availability, affordability, and transferability of housing units in the country through developing a new land administration and land title transfer system.
· Develop an effective primary housing finance system, and facilitate linkage of that market to the capital market to provide long-term mortgage finance.
Vision 20:2020 has a clear economic growth imperative, which requires a rapid industrialization of the Nigerian economy. Nigeria’s growth strategy will be underpinned by a drive to optimize the strategic drivers of economic growth for which the nation has already achieved considerable industrial maturity and unlock the potential of other sources of economic growth that currently remain under exploited.
The strategies to achieve this structural transformation are the essence of this pillar of Vision 20:2020.
The fundamental objectives of the economic growth requirements of the Vision are:
· Economic diversification away from primary commodities to processed and manufactured goods.
·Attainment of high levels of efficiency and productivity, in order to be globally competitive. As depicted above, Nigeria’s industrialization strategy is four pronged. The first elements to the quantum and structure of the primary production base to reduce the cost of input materials required in the secondary sector. The second element, which derives from the first, is the achievement of global competitiveness in the production of specific processed or manufactured goods. Industrial specialisation is critical to this objective, and Nigeria will anchor its industrial growth on six industries in which comparative advantage can easily be achieved due to the existence of primary resource and location advantages.
The third element is the stimulation of domestic and foreign trade in value-adding goods and services, and the fourth is to foster strong linkages among all sectors of the economy.
Nigeria’s strategy to achieving success in this pillar will be underpinned by two key departures from the past: Integrating Sectoral Planning, and adopting a Cluster-based approach to Industrialisation.
Vision 20:2020 will ensure proper integration of sectoral strategies to enhance linkage and realize potential synergies amongst the nation’s growth sectors. By focusing on initiatives that will foster the effective linkage of these input sectors to the domestic industry, Nigeria will unlock the latent potential of her primary resource advantage. Inter-sector strategies will, therefore, be designed to maximize the synergies that exist among the various sectors of the Nigerian economy.
To support the attainment of her industrialization ambition, industrial clusters will be built in each of the nation’s geo-political zones. These clusters would be built around different sectors based on the economic geography of the geo-political zones. The ‘hub-and-spoke’ industrialization approach will leverage the economies of scale and scope; and the critical mass of economic activity to catalyze development across the nation. The development of necessary infrastructure for these industrial clusters, leveraging private sector collaboration, will be a top priority of the Government under Vision 20:2020.
The third pillar of Vision 20:2020 is anchored on the need to create an environment that enables the co-existence of growth and development on an enduring and sustainable basis in Nigeria.
Over the years, Nigeria has experienced modest economic growth, driven primarily by the non-oil sector. The oil boom and associated income derived from oil exports have not translated into sustainable development and wealth for its citizens. The key challenges facing the sustainable social and economic development of Nigeria are the weak infrastructure base, especially power and transport, corruption, macroeconomic instability, security of lives and properties, over-dependence on oil revenues and poor governance.
The major flaws in policy reforms and programmes, developed over the years, include corruption, lack of continuity in policy implementation, inappropriate fiscal and macro-economic policies, ethnic and political division leading to instability of the political and social environment. The broad philosophical principles underlying the recommendations targeted at fostering sustainable social and economic development in Nigeria are:
A redistributive fiscal policy which will improve the revenue profiles of sub-national governments.
This will encourage the states and local governments to look inwards for fiscal sustainability.
Government’s involvement in the provision of critical infrastructure (power and transport) will be gradually reduced and the focus will be on creating an enabling environment for private sector participation.
Strengthening our democratic governance will involve tackling our perennial challenge of conducting free and fair elections while instituting a system of government that is transparent and accountable.
Key emphasis would also include:
Tackling corruption. NV 20:2020 aims to stamp out corruption from Nigeria and improve Nigeria’s ranking on the corruption perception index to 60 by 2015 and 40 by 2020. The root causes of corruption in Nigeria have been identified as social insecurity and over – centralization of activities in the Federal Government, and government will deal with these underlying issues and not just the symptomatic manifestations government will deal with these underlying issues and not just the symptomatic manifestations of corruption.
Enabling the power sector to deliver sustainable adequate, qualitative, reliable and affordable power in a deregulated market, while optimizing the on-and off-grid energy mix. It is expected that the electricity supply industry will be private sector led with government providing an appropriate legal and regulatory environment for private capital investment. An analysis of the power generation capacity required to support the Vision 20:2020 economic vision shows that, Nigeria will need to generate electricity in the range of about 35,000MW by 2020.
Promoting the sustainable development of Nigeria’s geo-political regions into economic growth poles to facilitate equitable development.