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The Middle East And Global Tsunami



The extraordinary events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are the initial high tides of an eventual tsunami that will impact the world that globalists have so fervently promoted for decades, in ways not necessarily to their liking. The first wave has struck and is now retreating from the shore, but will shortly return with redoubled force, and what and who will be swept away and what will be left standing is anyone’s guess.

Per usual, America’s intelligence agencies on which $60 billion a year is lavished, or $200 for every man, woman and child in the United States, have given zero benefit to the American citizenry in anticipating events in the North African Magreb, as the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) along with America’s 15 other federal intelligence agencies were completely blindsided by the events, if public information is to be believed. If any comfort can be had in this, it is the fact that America’s favourite bête noire, al Qaida, much less other Islamic fundamentalists such as the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt, were apparently caught flatfooted as well.

As “Beltwayistan” frantically tries to conceptualize events in North Africa now threatening the larger Muslim world, Washington’s pundit class has tried a number of insta-definitions to explain events.

First, it was an “Arab’ thing. Secondly, a “Muslim’ thing, where dark forces, epitomized by the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaida lurking in the wings, were standing poised to hijack events and turn Egypt and now Libya into an Islamic state, with de facto hostility to the West and in particular, towards America’s client state, Israel, threatening the 1979 Camp David accords.

To use an American English cliché, the “bottom line” is that what’s happened in Tunisia, Egypt and now Libya represent an ominous turn for Western (read American) interests in the Middle East. Like a Greenland glacier weakened by global warming, the Middle East system of stability carefully crafted by Western interest focused on the region’s energy reserves over the last 50 years has begun suddenly to fracture and crumble, and what will replace it is uncertain at best.

In reality, complex as the origins for the North African unrest are, major aspects of them are simply incomprehensible to American GS-17 “specialists” in Washington earning six-figure salaries, along with the hordes of denizens of the Dilbert cubicles cloistered in the NSA’s Fort Meade and the CIA’s Langley environs, sifting through the massive amounts of data hoovered in each day by the Echelon intelligence network.

What these “experts” have overlooked in their analysis over events are two critical issues – the massive poverty and income disparity of the states undergoing protests, but even more importantly, the presence of an aware youth, plugged into the digital age since childbirth, questioning the status quo.

Interestingly, and also largely overlooked by Western commentators, is that the region’s favorite bête noirs has been apparently totally blindsided by the recent events in the Magreb. For the Arab world, this includes the CIA and Israel’s Mossad, which are usually seen behind every political event in the region. While such information is tightly held, there is every indication at this stage that both intelligence agencies, vaunted for their abilities, particularly in their native countries, were caught totally flatfooted by the recent events in North Africa.

For the aforementioned two agencies, their initial attempts along with the Western media to portray events in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and now destabilizing Jordan, Yemen and Bahrain as part of a nefarious, long developed part of a master plan by Islamists to topple their respective regimes have similarly proven to be as false as those peddling them.

Islamic militants in recent events have been conspicuous by their absence, not in the vanguard of events mobilizing popular support streaming into the streets, nor taking advantage of the resultant political chaos to bring the masses over to their side in proclaiming that whatever succeeds the newly toppled old regime will have a predominantly Islamic tinge. Nowhere have these Western and Israeli fears been more assiduously stoked than in Egypt, where the deep rooted and long banned Islamic Brotherhood maintains a formidable presence.

Given the absence of the region’s favorite evil covert intelligence agencies as well as the West’s mirror imaged paramount and paranoid fears of covert Islamic fundamentalist jihadis, the causes for the unrest roiling North Africa must be sought elsewhere.

They lie in two root causes simply off the pundit’s and intelligence service’s radar – poverty and the emergence of a bright, computer literate generation, the first in world history, that sees its options for a decent livelihood, much less prosperity, blocked by a brutal plutocracy designed exclusively to profit the scions of the ruling class, while their corrupt governments buy off Western criticism by waving the specter of Islamic fundamentalism.

The catalyst? The suicide on 17 December of Tarek el-Tayyib Mohamed Ben Bouazizi, a Tunisian street vendor who set himself alight in the town of Sidi Bouzoud, a poverty stricken locale with an unemployment rate of 30 percent, after being harassed by officials who confiscated his pushcart’s wares of fruit and vegetables, harassing and humiliating him. Nothing to see here, move along.

Except the Tunisian people did not. While the government clamped down on the Internet, tech-savvy young Tunisians quickly evaded the restrictions and furthermore, used cutting edge digital facilities such as Twitter and Facebook to spread the word about events. The anger and violence against President Ben Ali mounted to the point where he fled Tunisia for Saudi Arabia with his family on 14 January, which now seems a lifetime ago.

The Tunisian “jasmine revolution” and the subsequent events in Egypt and Libya now igniting unrest throughout the Middle East were instigated and largely belong to the dispossessed Twitter generation. This is a far larger development than is being portrayed with global implications. The pundits who have prattled on for years about “globalization” are now seeing the first stirrings of that and are furiously explaining away their lack of foresight as they assumed that globalization’s benefits would forever benefit the ruling classes while those at the bottom of the economic food chain would continue to remain, as they have for decades, quiescent and passive, awaiting the “trickle down” benefits from the tables of their masters which in fact never arrived. Reaganism on a global scale.

If poverty were the sole cause of social and political unrest, then as Karl Marx once observed, the poor would be in a constant state of turmoil. But millions of educated young Middle Easterners can now use the Internet and other digital media and have become aware of their situation and the grotesque financial inequities in their countries making their training largely worthless for finding employment, and unlike their parent’s generation, have mobilized for change.

What has largely been overlooked by Western intelligence agencies in their eagerness to find fundamentalists underpinning events in the Magreb is that the events of the last five weeks have not only been initiated by economic issues of extreme poverty, but the emergence of a global phenomenon largely overlooked up to now, the emergence of the world’s first totally computer literate generation, that can circumvent Internet restrictions.

The implications of the emergence of this generation, technologically literate and noting the disparity between their lives and the persistent, hypocritical bleatings of Washington about democracy have proven a potent mix and not only underlay today’s events, but are ominous harbingers for those affluent international plutocrats looting worldwide on the assumption that those young will forever passively accept the same conditions as their downtrodden parents.

Another extraordinary moment totally overlooked by the western media is how the events in Egypt represent al Jazeera’s coming of age. For media coverage of the events in North Africa, al Jazeera has consistently proven that it is the equal with any global television channel and deserving of wide dissemination. Tunisia, Egypt and Libya should prove their breakthrough moment for their brilliant and unwavering coverage of events, much as the 1991 Gulf War catapulted CNN into worldwide prominence.

“Walk like an Egyptian.” To those plutocratic governments that have asset-stripped their populations for decades for the benefit of their affluent ruling class, the watchword is now, “Be afraid, be very afraid.”

Long oppressed Middle Eastern peoples led by their tech-savvy youth have determined that their organized masses if tightly and consistently focused on Tahrir Square or elsewhere outweigh the repressive forces of the state if they are willing to accept casualties. Even beleaguered self-styled Libyan “King of Kings” ( or “Mad Dog,” if you prefer Reagan’s appellations) Moammar Qadaffi can’t kill them all.

As all repressive systems are ultimately based on the threat of using force to ensure the population’s passivity, this, along with the information age young spearheading the information revolution, are the true lessons of recent events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, while Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Yemen are on notice.

In America, technologically capable young people currently organize fun “flash mobs” or pants-less days – but certain elements deny them jobs for years and crush their employment opportunities while saddling them with decades of debt for their education, the future is not so bright.

As events in Wisconsin are proving, this is not solely an issue of the young, but of perceived assaults on declining standards of living imposed by spendthrift governments, as even America’s older working class is discovering ‘red lines.”

The turmoil transcends national boundaries – it is notable, though not reported in the American media, that Egyptian labor unions sent a message of solidarity after their protest began, thanking them for their earlier messages of solidarity, saying, “We stand with you now as you stood with us then.” America’s billionaires, relentlessly promoting globalization over the last three decades outsourcing American jobs abroad in search of increased Third World profits where labor is cheap, are now seeing some ‘blowback,” to use a CIA phrase.

We are all cheese-heads now. In the United States, 48 years after Dr. Martin Luther King delivered his stirring “I have a dream” speech at the base of the Lincoln Memorial, 45 per cent of young African-Americans have no jobs and the top hedge fund managers are paid, on average, $1 billion a year, a thoughtful American can only expect the mass protests against cuts in services and jobs in Wisconsin to spread.

And America’s propensity for eventual chaos is far higher than the Middle East, demonized in the press as a violent region, when one considers that America’s 300 million citizens have between 238 million and 276 million privately owned firearms.

As a prescient 23-year old from Hibbing, Minnesota, Bob Dylan warned an earlier generation 47 years ago about to embark on its misguided mission to safeguard and democratize in Vietnam, “There’s a battle outside and it is raging, It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls, For the times they are a-changin’.”

America has older prophets on the current situation – as Thomas Jefferson observed, “A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned – this is the sum of good government.”

Take heed, Governor Walker of Wisconsin and all the rest of you political leaders in Washington DC – or fuel up your learjets and head for the Cayman Islands.

Daly of the Global Intelligence Report, writes from Washington, DC, USA.

John Daly

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Oil & Energy

Periscoping Nigeria’s Economy @ 61



Three days ago, Nigeria celebrated its 61st Independence Anniversary without much fanfare. Apart from the annual ritual of gathering dignitaries at the Eagle Square, Abuja and in every state capital of the country to mark the event, there was no much enthusiasm and euphoria reminiscent of the October 1, 1960 Independence Day. 
Like the governor of Rivers State, Chief Nyesom Wike, noted in his Independence Day broadcast, last Friday, there’s not much to be excited about this year’s independence celebration except, perhaps, the fact that “we have remained independent and managed to struggle with our existence for all these years”.
At independence, Nigeria was, no doubt, a great nation with great potential in both human and natural resources. It was a rich and the largest economy in Africa. 
Today, given several negative economic indices about the country, can Nigeria truly pride itself as the giant of Africa, again? This is a one million dollar question many Nigerians, including economists and financial experts, may find difficult to answer in the affirmative. 
Nigeria may, indeed, take its first position in terms of population, and human/natural endowments in Africa, it is doubtful if it can proudly pride itself as the most progressive economy among its peers, today. 
Indices have shown that while many countries that were either at par or trailing behind Nigeria 61 years ago such as Malaysia, Singapore and Ghana, are responding positively to the emerging trend in the global economy, Nigeria appears lethargic, growing at a pace slower than the rate of expansion of its population. 
In 1960 for instance, Nigeria’s population was 45.1 million, today, it has grown above 200 million. Yet, only a little above 10 per cent economic progression has been recorded in the last 61 years, to keep up with the population expansion. 
It is a sad irony that a country which was once the pride of Africa is, today, one of the poorest countries in the world, with 40 per cent or 83 million of its total population living below the poverty line of less than $1 per day and N137,430 ($381.75) per year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, last year. And if the World Bank’s income poverty threshold of $3.20 per day is used, Nigeria’s poverty rate is 71 per cent. 
It is also a sad commentary that 61 years after attaining independence, Nigeria’s economy which was once strong enough to feed the nation and the rest of Africa is now in tatters, gasping for breath. High inflation, massive unemployment, convulsed social infrastructure and unprecedented debt burden have continued to push more Nigerians into “dehumanising misery and abject poverty”, as Governor Wike rightly noted.
As many businesses are closing shops, many companies are relocating to neighbouring countries like Ghana and South Africa, leading to massive loss of jobs by Nigerians. Twenty seven per cent of Nigeria’s labour force (over 21 million Nigerians) are currently unemployed, according to statistics. Meanwhile, the nation’s currency – the Naira, has practically lost its value as a US dollar which was at par with the Naira in the 1960s is now exchanged for N580.
The grim picture about Nigeria’s economy, inconsistent growth trajectory and poor standard of living have ended up widening the income inequality, increasing the poverty rate and fuelling social tension in the country. 
Worst, the Covid-19 pandemic has further worsened Nigeria’s economic growth. As with most other economies around the world, the sharp drop in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is largely due to the slowdown in economic activity after the country resorted to a lockdown back in April, last year, to curb the spread of the Covid-19 virus.
The accompanying steep drop in oil prices amid a drop in global demand also left Nigeria drastically shorn of earnings given its dependence on the commodity as its biggest revenue source. 
For context, the United States slashed its Nigerian crude oil imports oil by 11.67 million barrels in the first five months of 2020, compared to what it bought in the same period of 2019. In fact, in the second quarter of 2020, local oil production dropped to its lowest since 2016, when Nigeria endured a full year of negative growth.
President Muhammadu Buhari himself acknowledged this economic asphyxiation in his Independence Day broadcast when he said “the past eighteen months have been some of the most difficult periods in the history of Nigeria. Since the civil war, I doubt whether we have seen a period of more heightened challenges than what we have witnessed in this period”.
Meanwhile, in spite of several assurances to turn around the fortunes of Nigeria’s economy, the latest economic data shows that the Nigerian government has continued to fall far short of projections in its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, created in the aftermath of the 2016 recession. From manufacturing, agriculture, solid minerals, oil and gas to service sectors such as aviation and banking, the economy has been like a motion without movement.
Although the economy is not lacking in policy statements and blueprints by successive administrations, positive attitude towards policy implementation appears to be the major albatross militating against its growth.
Save for the telecommunication sector which has emerged as a catalyst for the nation’s economic growth for the past two decades, virtually every other sector is comatose. Power supply is epileptic, aviation industry has continued to wobble with muted ambition, maritime activities are crippled by ports congestion and piracy, trade and investment sector is bitten by the bug of Nigerian factor, the banking industry is feeding fat on a bleeding economy, while the oil and gas sector which has remained the mainstay of the country’s economy for years is shrunk by steep drop in oil prices amid a drop in global demand.
Since 2005 when President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration liberalised the telecommunication sector, the sector has continued to provide a scaffolding for Nigeria’s broader economic growth. It has emerged as an unbeaten player in the nation’s economy for the past one decade, contributing geometrically to the GDP. Its contribution has almost doubled from 8.5 per cent in 2015 to 14.7 per cent, today. 
The NBS latest GDP data shows that the ICT sector grew by 6.47 per cent in Q1 2021, making it the fastest growing sector of the nation’s economy. From a subscriber base of 2, 271, 050 and GDP contributions of 0.85 per cent in 2002, today’s growth has surpassed all projections. Yet, experts say the potential for further growth is huge. 
But here appears to be the end of positive stories about Nigeria’s economy. Most other sectors are still finding it difficult to stand on a sound footing. One of such sectors is power. Despite being unbuddled more than a decade ago, the sector has been that of motion without movement over the years. Today, Nigeria’s installed generating capacity is merely 12,500 megawatts (MW) compared to South Africa’s 58, 095 MW, while the electrification rate still lags at 45 per cent, making the sector the missing link in propelling the economy of the country.
It is a sad commentary that a less endowed country like Ghana celebrated one year of uninterrupted power supply more than 10 years ago, whereas Nigeria that prides itself as the giant of Africa has not enjoyed one week of uninterrupted power supply since independence. 
Many energy experts have called for a review of the privatisation contract in the face of persistent blackout enveloping the country. For instance, an energy economist at the University of Ibadan, Professor Adeola Adenikinju, lamented that a decade after the defunct Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) was unbundled and sold to 11 distribution companies (DisCos), Nigeria is still experiencing epileptic power supply amid high tariff. 
The aviation sector is not better either. It is one sector that evolves with ambitious developmental policies since independence. One of such policies under the Muhammadu Buhari administration is code-named “Aviation Roadmap”. The policy has components that include a new national carrier, airport concession, aircraft leasing companies, Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facility and aerotropolis. Till date, none of these projects has been delivered. 
The national carrier, for instance, after its launch in London in 2018, ran into a storm of public criticisms and had to be “temporarily” suspended by the Federal Government. However, there is an indication that the new airline – ‘Nigeria Air’, may hit the sky in 2022.
Similarly, about three years ago, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved the concession of four major airports in the country namely Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and Kano. Till date, the facilities are yet to get the requisite patronage from the private sector. 
President of the National Union of Air Transport Employees (NUATE), Ben Nnabue, sometimes ago, took a swipe at the aviation sector. 
He said that whereas a state government like Akwa Ibom has since successfully launched its airline (Ibom Air) without any fanfare, “our country has woefully failed in its attempt to birth a national carrier after over 10 years of labour and colossal financial waste”.
He continued: “The proposed aircraft leasing company, national aircraft Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facility and aerotropolis development, all flagship programmes of this federal administration, have all suffered paralysis, despite massive support from all stakeholders and informed Nigerians. 
“They all followed the same path; bitten by the bug of hidden agenda, suffered the ailment of ill-motive to death, presently in the coffins of infidelity to the national cause, and awaiting to be buried in the grave of onemarism”.
Nnabue also described the airport concession as a travesty, aimed at draining the nation’s treasury and called on the Federal Government to put a halt to it. 
Many stakeholders, however, believe that the aviation sector has retained a good measure of stability under the Buhari administration. According to a member of the Aviation Safety Round Table Initiative (ASRTI), Olumide Ohunayo, the sector has sustained safety standards, retained Category-One rating, got good approvals from the Federal Government and received a palliative during the Covid-19 pandemic. 
He said the only drawback was the non-implementation of the aviation roadmap components which he believes, can still be achieved before the Buhari administration winds down in 2023. 
Another sector capable of revving up the engine of the nation’s economy is trade and investment. Unfortunately, like many other sectors, it is bitten by the bug of the Nigerian factor. 
While the sector could be said to have recorded some modest achievements in recent times, many experts believe it has not done well in promoting investment inflows into the nation’s economy. 
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Pan African Development Corporation, Odilim Enwagbara, said that the sector has not been business-friendly to young entrepreneurs who could have possibly impacted their God-given skills on the economy. 
According to him, “The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment has failed to pursue a nationalistic economic policy, trade diplomacy that would have protected Nigeria’s trade relations interest”.
He called on the government to “invite all small scale business owners to come together with their technical notch that can promote rapid economic development”.
In the area of agriculture, while it is convenient to say that the sector has been a consistent driver of the non-oil sector contributing 22.35% and 23.78% to the overall GDP in the first and second quarter of 2021, it is instructive to note that the impact of investment in the sector is yet to be felt by Nigerians, as the cost of food items in the market is currently getting out of the reach of the common man in the country. No thanks to the twin evil of insecurity and Covid-19. 
As it is usually mouthed by every successive administration at every independence anniversary since 1960, Nigeria cannot truly be said to have been stagnant without recording some economic milestones in the last 61 years. 
Under the present administration, for instance, some modest achievements have, indeed, been recorded especially in the area of oil and gas, maritime, transport and aviation, among others. The recent passage and signing of the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021; the launching of the NLNG Train 7, and the Deep Blue projects; the introduction of the Electronic Call-Up System and the launching of the Digital Economy are all efforts in the right direction by the Buhari administration. 
But how these lofty initiatives intend to deepen the nation’s economy and make Nigeria go beyond a never-ending potential for becoming a great nation to a truly great one remains to be seen.

By: Boye Salau

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Oil & Energy

Nigeria Petitions OPEC+, Demands Quota Increase



The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, said he has petitioned the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners known as OPEC+ for an increased oil production quota for Nigeria.
Sylvia revealed this at the Gastech 2021 conference in Dubai, according to S&P Global Platts.
According to him, the country already wrote the group for an increment in its quota.
He said: “We’ve put request on the table, and we expect that to be looked at.
“We have capacity for more production than we are producing right now. Unfortunately, we are constrained by the quota.”
The Minister said the country’s full production capacity of about 2.2 million barrels per day should be reflected in a revised quota, saying that the country’s production struggles is due to technical problems from re-tapping reservoirs that had been shut to comply with the stringent OPEC+ cuts of the past 17 months, adding that production struggles would soon be fixed.
He said output could rebound to around 1.7 million barrels per day by November and two million barrels per day by the end of the year.
“We had some issues from shutting down the reservoirs,” he was quoted as saying by S&P Global Platts.
“When you shut down a reservoir, to restart it, sometimes there are challenges,” he added.

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Oil & Energy

Content Policy Saves $2bn In NLNG Train 7



Nigeria was saved the sum of $2 billion dollars from the ongoing Train 7 of the Nigeria liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) project as a result of using Nigerian firms, says the Executive Secretary, Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), Mr Simbi Wabote
Wabote, stated this last Friday, shortly after receiving the award of African Local Content Icon, from the African Leadership magazine, in Yenagoa.
The NCDMB Executive Secretary, who dismissed the assertion that the Nigerian content policy was costly, and a ploy by foreign interests who do not wish the country to develop, described the claim as blackmail, because experience had shown that the policy was more cost effective for oil firms.
“The Nigerian content policy saves costs, from the projects that the NCDMB have supervised it is clear that it is better for the International Operating Companies in Nigeria, but foreign interests at global levels erroneously say that local content is expensive.
“Before the move to increase the participation of Nigerians in the oil and gas sector, the participation was at about three per cent and previous administrations relied mostly on taxes and revenue and lost sight of the opportunities for Nigerians to get involved in the sector.
“From the oil sector where I am coming from, it is five times more expensive to pay an expatriate than a Nigerian, so how can they say that local content is more expensive ?
“ On the Train 7 project if you look at the cost provided by foreign companies, you have a wide gap of about $ 2 billion from the quotations of the lowest submitted by foreign firms and the highest from Nigerian companies, so local content is better as we ensured that quality was not compromised.
“From 2010 till now, we have come a long way, for instance NLNG had 90 per cent of the workforce as expatriates, but today 90 per cent of the workers are Nigerians with some even occupying top positions in foreign oil firms.
“I am thankful to President Muhamadu Buhari, who gave me the opportunity to practice local content in the public sector, by appointing me in 2016 and reappointing me in 2020,” Wabote said.
On the African Local Content Icon Award bestowed on him, Wabote said that it came to him as a ‘pleasant surprise’ adding that the ideals of the African Leadership Magazine justified his decision to accept the award.
Speaking earlier, the Managing Editor of the African Leadership Magazine, Mr Kingsley Okeke, noted that the process leading to the selection was transparent and independently conducted with nominations received from across the African continent.
“We found in the accomplishment and achievements of the Executive Secretary of the NCDM, a worthy character we must encourage and export to the rest of Africa.
“Our focus at the magazine is to spotlight the positive developments in the African continent and change the narrative and stereotypes by western media,” he said.
The Tide source reports that the African Local Content Icon Award was presented by Mrs Laura Hall, President-elect of the National Black Caucus in the U.S congress, at the headquarters of the NCDMB in Yenagoa.
Hall said that blacks in the United States, represented by the Black Caucus, also have a similar challenge with building local capacity to compete with their white counterparts in executing contracts in the U.S.
She said the caucus would collaborate and share ideas with the NCDMB on ways to increase the capacities of blacks in the U.S.

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